2008 Rule 5 Draft
UPDATE: The Cubs lost three players in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft this morning, one in the Major League Phase and two in the AAA Phase.
1. Donald Veal, LHP - selected off AAA Iowa roster by Pittsburgh Pirates with 4th overall pick in Major League Phase.
2. Yusuf Carter, OF - selected off AA Tennessee roster by Oakland A's in AAA Phase.
3. Mark Holliman, RHP - selected off AA Tennessee roster by Milwaukee Brewers in AAA Phase
The Cubs did not select any players, but they did acquire RHP David Patton from the Cincinnati Reds in a cash transaction after the conclusion of the draft. Patton was selected from the Colorado Rockies by the Reds with the 8th pick in the 1st round of the Major League Phase, and so the Cubs will assume the Rule 5 obligations (Patton must remain on Cubs 25-man roster for the entire 2009 season--or at least 90 days on the active roster if he spends time on the DL--before he can be optioned to the minors).
The 24-year old Patton is 6'3 175, and was selected by Colorado in the 12th round of the 2004 draft out of Green River CC in Washington. He struggled as a starter his first two years in pro ball before turning his career around after a move to the bullpen in 2006. He throws a hard breaking ball and has an above average fastball, and so he could project as an MLB reliever. The only problem is, he spent the last two years pitching in the California League (Hi-A), and has yet to throw even one inning of AA ball, although he did get into nine games with the Phoenix Desert Dogs of the AFL post-2008 (an atrocious 9.24 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in 12.2 IP).
All three of the Cubs players selected in today's Rule 5 Draft were 2005 Rule 4 Draft picks (Veal in the 2nd round out of Pima CC, Holliman in the 3rd round out of Ol' Miss, and Carter in the 12th round out of El Paso CC), and this was the first Rule 5 Draft for each player.
Veal is still only 24, and was rated one of the Cubs top pitching prospects for most of his time with the Cubs, before falling out of favor in 2008. Veal has a plus-curve and a 93 MPH fastball, but he has struggled with his mechanics throughout his pro career and tends to hit his pitch limit before he can get through five innings. To help him throw fewer pitches-per-inning, the Cubs had him junk his curve in favor of a more-pedestrian slider in 2008, and that could have led to his downfall. I suspect the Pirates will have Veal try and get back to where he was before the Cubs started messing with him. I have projected Veal as a future MLB reliever for some time now (I would compare him to Arthur Rhodes), and I believe that is his best chance to have success at the MLB level. He is very effective against left-handed hitters, and pitching more often but without a pitch limit (as will be the case if he works out of the bullpen) should help him find more consistency with his posture, release point, and arm slot.
The 25-year old Holliman was a "Friday Night Starter" (ace) at Ole Miss in his college days, and he had some success as a rotation starter the first half of 2006 and 2007 with the Cubs at Daytona and Tennessee. But then he would hit a wall at about 110 IP and was unable to finish strong. With it becoming increasingly obvious that Holliman lacked the stamina to throw the 180 innings per season needed to remain in the starting rotation, he was moved into a middle-relief role at AA in 2008, and that appears to be his future.
Drafted out of JC ball as a catcher, 23-year old Yusuf Carter was moved to RF his second year with the Cubs. He has a plus-arm and plus-power, but he is also a very raw hitter (226/275/409 hitter in 298 career minor league games) who strikes out a lot and rarely walks. He would have had to win a job as the 4th outfielder at Tennessee in 2009 if he had remained with the Cubs. He is the nephew of retired MLB star outfielder (and ex-Cub) Joe Carter.
When a Rule 5-eligible player is placed on a AA reserve list in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft (as was the case with Holliman and Carter), it usually means the player's club sees the player as having a 50/50 chance of getting released in Spring Training, and so the club is happy to get $12,000 for the player. And since they were selected in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft, Carter and Holliman will not be offered back to the Cubs. They are gone.
Veal's situation is a different matter, however, as he has to remain on the Pirates 25-man roster for the entire 2009 season (or a minimum of 90 days if he spends time on the DL) before he can be optioned to the minors. So it is possible that the Cubs could get Veal back, if the Pirates decide they can't afford to keep him in the big leagues for an entire season and if the other MLB clubs aren't interested in assuming the Rule 5 requirements.
-- AZ PHIL
The 2008 Rule 5 Draft gets underway in about 15 minutes at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, and (as usual) it's the last official order of business at the MLB Winter Meetings
37 Cubs minor leaguers (including three players who retired during Spring Training 2007) are eligible for selection. I expect to see LHP Donald Veal (Cubs 2005 2nd round pick out of Pima CC) picked early, and don't be surprised if Veal is selected by a club picking in the Top 5 but then gets traded (for cash or a PTBNL) to a club that selects in the bottom third of the draft order. Other Cubs who are fairly strong candidates for selection are RHPs Mark Holliman, Gregory Reinhard, Dumas Garcia, and Jesse Estrada, and 2B Nate Spears.
There are three phases to the draft, the Major League Phase (where players are selected off AAA reserve lists), the AAA Phase (where players are selected off AA reserve lists), and the AA Phase (where players are selected off the reserve lists of Class "A" clubs).
Players eligible for selection in the Major League Phase cost $50,000 each, players eligible for selection in the AAA Phase cost $12,000, and players eligible for selection in the AA Phase cost $4,000.
Players selected in the Major League Phase must remain on the drafting club's MLB Active Roster (25-man roster) for one full season or 90 days (whichever comes last) before the player can be optioned to the minors (presuming the player has minor league options left). Time spent on the Disabled List does not count toward the one year or 90 days
A player selected in the Major League Phase must receive a "full trial" in Spring Training, and cannot be outrighted to the minors until 20 days prior to the start of the season.
If a club wants to remove a Rule 5 player from it's 40-man roster prior to the player completing one full season (or 90 days) on the Active Roster, the player must be placed on Outright Waivers (which are irrevocable) and can be claimed by another club for the waiver price (which is $25,000 for Rule 5 players).
If the Rule 5 player is claimed off Outright Waivers, the claiming club assumes the Rule 5 roster requirements. If the player is not claimed, the player must be offered back to the player's original club for half the draft price ($25,000) If the player is not taken back by the club from whom the player was drafted, the player is automatically outrighted to the AAA club of the drafting club. If the player has at least three years of MLB service time or as been previously outrighted in his career, the player has the option to be a free-agent rather than accept the outright assignment.
Playes selected in the AAA and AA phases of the Rule 5 Draft belong to the drafting club without any strings attached or roster restrictions. The only caveat is that the drafted player must spend Spring Training with the minor league club (AAA or AA level) that selected the player in the draft. But once the minor league regular season starts, the player can be assigned to any team in the drafting club's minor league system.
You can follow the Rule 5 draft over at Baseball America if you wish. As of 12:41PM CST, Donald Veal was taken with the 4th pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Bruce Miles is reporting that the Cubs are trying to work out a trade with the Cincinnati Reds to acquire pitcher David Patton, whom they selected from the Colorado Rockies.
In the Triple A-Phase, the Cubs have lost outfielder Yusuf Carter to the Athletics and pitcher Mark Holliman to the Brewers. (Rob G.)
Thank goodness for Jansen's 2 WP on Friday -- otherwise this would have been a sweep.
There seems to be a direct correlation with overconfidence in the Cubs offense against mediocre/young pitchers and really poor offense against mediocre/young pitchers. So, let's fear the Pirate pitchers!
Rizzo due for a power surge -- one HR in August so far. He truly does hit them in bunches.
Sometimes I'm not as supportive of Cahill as maybe I should be. There, I said it.
Rough 8th inning all around -- HBP, Cahill error, Javy's poor decision.
Oh well - given that the Cubs didn't look like they were going to score, it's better to lose in 9 innings, save the bullpen and get changed for the PJ trip home.
Baez still learning
heyward with his 3rd multi-hit game since the all-star break (all in august)...2nd in the past 3 games during his 7 game hitting streak.
he's gone from flirting with a sub-.300 ob% to nearing .310 ob% in 3 games (1 game was just a 1 for 1 pinch hit appearance). all 5 hits in the past 3 games have come in a row...neat.
stewart with 7Ks through 3ip...of course.
that 10-13 mph difference in his fastball/change is working today...and they're swinging at his crappy slider.
brock stewart...steven brault...fun times for the cubs hitters vs allegedly competitive teams...maybe.
Maddon would have started three lefties against the Dodgers, Montgomery, Zastryzny and Lester, except that he doesn't have the juice to do that. No manager does. Maddon has a boss, Epstein (and probably Hoyer, too), who gave him a starting rotation of five guys including Hammel. Maddon was asked yesterday about the starting group for next year and basically said, Not my call, that's why I drive away in my RV in the summer and occasionally check in, etc.
video of Maddon.
always nice that he actually tries to honestly answer questions. Does mention that he wanted to give Zastr? a chance in a meaningful spot rather than a mop-up role.
#Cubs Maddon: "I'm not going to make up an excuse for why I did what I did. It has nothing to do with lack of confidence" ... "It was the right thing to do today based on what I saw, what their lineup looked like and Rob Z.'s availability." #Cubs
Hammel not particularly understanding of getting pulled out...as he should. Be curious what Maddon had to say. All I can think of is is keeping arms fresh and maybe wanting to see if Zastr? is worth considering for the playoffs and how he'd do against the Dodgers.
Heyward, Russell, Baez, Bryant, Ross in particular...although Bryant's a bit hard to judge with all the positions.
Fowler and Rizzo in the top half of the NL for their positions as well (per fangraphs)...Zobrist right at the halfway cutoff for 2b in the NL.
I'm sure some luck is involved too, but the Cubs and Maddon knew what they were doing.
If all the starters have FIP > ERA, is that luck or good defense?
#Cubs plummet to 19-5 in August.
Fun with FIP
- J. Hammel 3.07 ERA/4.27 FIP (3.68 FIP last year)
- J. Arrieta 2.62 ERA/3.05 FIP (2.35 FIP last year)
- J. Lester 2.81 ERA/3.67 FIP (2.92 FIP last year)
- K. Hendricks 2.19 ERA/3.37 FIP (3.36 FIP last year)
- J. Lackey 3.41 ERA/3.72 FIP (3.57 FIP last year with Cards)