Where is the Logic?

The Chicago Tribune had a story on Melissa Isaacson's blog where readers got the chance to play GM for a day. I wanted to take a few seconds to point out some of the choice cuts.

If I could be a GM for a day, I would choose to be the GM of the Cubs. The only real order of business on my plate for that day would be finding some way to get rid of Soriano, who is the biggest face of the failure of the last two years in the playoffs? Soriano. Hopefully I could find a way to get rid of Soriano and then Hendry could take back over and do whatever it took to sign Manny Ramirez to replace Soriano. - Jim Fannin, Morris, Il.

What I can't understand is why everyone is so quick to get rid of Soriano. To me, moving him to get Manny Ramirez doesn't make sense. Do you really think Manny is done being Manny? Do you think he'll just come here and be a model player? I understand that people dont like Sori's contract, but to throw him and his production to the curb is just silly. I'm also sick and tired of the playoff production excuse for why people justify moving a player. I'm fine with Sori on this team. If moved to the middle of the order, he can be a very good run producer for this team. Am I wrong?

I'd be the Cubs GM for a day: 1) I'd make the deal for Jake Peavy (in the proposed three-team deal). 2) I'd trade for Brian Roberts (take whats left of the value of our minor leagues and a position player or two like Cedeno or DeRosa and trade them for a World Series win). 3) I'd sign free agent Milton Bradley and play him in right and platoon Reed and Fukudome in center. 4) I'd sign free agent Randy Johnson (figuring that Marshall is gone via trade for Peavy). I'd like the Big Unit on our side for once. - Keith Davi, Lansing, Ill.

Come on Keith, trading for Peavy and then signing Randy Johnson? So that gives us six pitchers for five spots. Brilliant GM'ing. Also, Ronny Cedeno doesn't have any value as a trade piece right now. Teams know he's out of options and doesn't have a role on this team. There is a really good possibility he'll be designated for assignment this spring and be available for nothing.

Dunn can play first and Gathright can play RF and be a pesky leadoff hitter -- assuming he can learn to take a pitch or two. - Brad, Twin Cities, Minn.

Pesky? What makes a hitter Pesky? Why do all the speedy guys or small guys get labeled that?

If I were GM for a day: I would try to get Manny Ramirez and Jeremy Bonderman. I would keep Soriano, move Ryan Theriot to center, AKA Mickey Stanley in 1968, and insert Rodney Cedeno at short and DeRosa at 2nd, and move Hoffpauir to first. Ramirez would play right, Soriano left. Bring up Sam Fuld, I think that is his name and use him as a spark plug. Bring Ryan Sandberg up to be tutored by Piniella so that there is continuity when Piniella retires. Finally stop trading and build the farm system with pitchers who can pitch. The Cubs do not need flame throwers, they need pitchers. - Mark Nielson

Good God, this guy is just retarded. I cant take this anymore. I open it up to you. Play GM for a day.

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Comments

Play GM for a day.
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Not me...it's much more fun ripping these doofi to shreds.

Pesky, as in crappy + scrappy?

Citing his wife's pregnancy, Nick Markakis has turned down an invite to play for the United States in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.
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A new excuse...again demonstrating how fucked up Team USA will be in the WBC?

ta da boom.

So having a child is an excuse now? My god that Markakis is a prick. Why can't he be like other dads and just cheat on his wife, not be there for the birth of his child and play in the WBC like a real man.

Because we all know what is more important, the WBC baby. Who the hell cares about his wife and child.

Wow. It's taken a while, but wow. Mike C is finally right.

End of the world?

I agree with BOTH Mike C and Real Neal?

Get Bradley, and call it an offseason. Or not; I'm hoping that Hoffpauir learns how to play RF adequately, to get the guy some at-bats. I have no idea what to package a trade to get Pie out of here; that other GM brought Gathright in the mix.

If someone says that Soriano can't produce in a post-season -- as if the postseason is some type of magical place where stats from the regular season hold no water-- I'm going to kill someone.

I love "use [Fuld] as a spark plug." Now scrappiness is not just a quality -- it's a position. "...Johnson in center, and Fuld in at spark plug today for the Cubs." He doesn't bring a glove or anything, just some Red Bull, a boom box, and some awesome mix tapes.

It's so brilliant I can't believe Joe Morgan didn't think of it.

That made me laugh out loud

Here is my visual image:
Sam Fuld (who I have no problem with, acutally like the guy in principal, just not as a starter or anything) walks into the locker room with some Aviator Ray-Bans, copious gel in his recently dyed black hair, a Vaurnet t-shirt with the sleeves ripped off to show his guns, and some John Bender inspired jeans and boots. He sets down his boombox, puts on his fingerless gloves, and (after spinning the cassette on his index finger) pops "In A Big Country" by Big Country into the Ghetto Blaster and sets the volume to eleven. Sammy Sosa is in the corner weeping bitter, jealous tears.
Awesomeness ensues.

this article is a great example of when fans get a hold of a set of stats or read someone else's article about our system and somehow think this is the 1999 Oakland A's.

as much as it's great that more common fans are paying attention to system depth and stats, it's just as frustrating dealing with "spreadsheet fans" that have no idea how to use the stats, handicap the stats, or know why someone tears it up in AAA but has a "hole" in the majors.

I agree that we should sign Bradley but that isn't enough. This team needs a legit leadoff man. Not Sorryano who is, BTW, beyond worthless in the playoffs. (sorry to piss you off, Nittany) He doesn't belong in the top 4 in the batting order during the regular season either. Trade for Roberts or McLouth.

so if hoffpauer gets 300 at bats next year with cubs
what do we think his stats would be.

245/310/400 7 homers 14 doubles

I'll take the over on that.

"When the Yankees agreed to terms with free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira on an eight-year, $180 million deal Tuesday, it cost the Brewers an extra first-round pick in the amateur draft next June.

Teixeira was rated slightly higher than CC Sabathia among Class A free agents in the Elias Sports Bureau rankings, which determine free-agent compensation for their former clubs. Using a much-debated statistical formula covering the past two seasons, Elias gave Teixeira a ranking of 98.889, compared to 98.110 for Sabathia."

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8989378/BREWERS...

Dont forget about the BlueJays who were expecting a 1st round pick as well and now have to settle for the Yankees 3rd round pick. Ouch.

The Brewers and BlueJays were banking on a win-win scenerio of keeping/trading for players, resigning them, or getting draft pick compensation back.

With the Yankees signing Tex, AJ, and CC the team with the better record than the BlueJays and Brewers (The Angles) will get a 1st round pick and they settle for 2nd and 3rd rounders. Which really blows for them.

and the Yankees won't even lose a first round pick because they'll get another for failing to sign Gerrit Cole.

The Brewers and Jays still get Sandwich picks out of this. So both teams will have picks in the high/mid 30's on top of the 2nd and 3rd rounders respectively.

The Yankees started off the FA process with two first round picks, and now they have one, so I would say that they've lost a pick.

They also loose their 2nd and 3rd (and 4th?) round picks, similar to what happened with the Cubs when they Smardizija was their 2nd pick in the 5th round.

Brian Cashman = genious.

and all it took was 180-225 million dollars a year!

heh...

The only trade proposal that even seems possible on that blog is dumping Marquis and Wuertz for the Mets backup catcher. I clicked on all the links and it would make some sense. Everyone else is over-valuing the Cubs players or their financial situation.

Get a pitcher and boot Marquis. I've advocated for Peavy but Johnson would be alright too. And sign someone for RF. I don't care who.

Why get rid of Marquis? Remember, he's a fifth starter and he does the job pretty well. He always takes the ball and gives you 200 +/- innings per year. He is a little too expensive for a #5 starter, but it would cost more to trade him, eat some of his salary, and sign someone else.

on the cubs 40 man roster there is a brad snyder never heard
of him ?

claimed off waivers from the indians in late sept...power hitter who can't seem to hit for enough power...free swinger...OF'r...turns 27 in may. can play all 3 OF slots, but doesn't have the best arm in the world.

not a bad pickup...nothing to get really excited about, but could work out well.

First let me say, God Bless all the Cubs fans. Given the product that has been placed on the field, they are lucky to have any fans. Much less loyal ones like us. But my favorite post was the GM suggestion to move Dlee to 2nd base ("Second simply move Lee to 2b, he is athlete enough"). I loved the creativity, but could not find the logic.

I hope the next GM of the cubs realizes its not Fantasy Baseball, its for real.

That means, you cant just roll out a RH team full of good stats and think you'll win (Soriano logic, it worked in the regular season, but the bottom 12 teams done make it).

Also, even if you love your prospects and think they will be good one day (Pie), ask other peoples opinions and determine if you should sell high not at the bottom after flopping.

If a pitcher has one pitch and one pitch only and he's 26/27+ (Hill and Wuertz) sell high.

If a player has great tools but is not that smart (Cedeno) sell high.

Realize the greatest advantage in Major League Baseball is a great farm system (Twins, A's, Red Sox, DRays) for cheap talent and chips to barter for trades.

Stop giving No Trade Clauses past 1st 3 years of contracts.

Look for winners that have the firer in the belly to play in Chicago and handle it in October.

Hendry got us to step 1, Competitive every year. Now we need a GM to finish the job (Terry Ryan, Dombrowski, Scheurholz?)

Hell it's so easy to make assessments like that when you have the benefit of retrospect. The toughest part about being the GM is making those same decisions without knowing the future.

I thought he was being sarcastic. Ryan is going to get the Cubs over the top? What is that based on? Scheurholz whose teams were legendary for not getting it done in the playoffs? Dombrowski? Is he the Tigers GM who put together the fantasy lineup and finished in fourth?

Wow, Clueless is just full of great ideas.

First, make sure you have a GM that can travel into the future and see how every prospect pans out, making sure to trade everyone that eventually busts (even if they didn't ever hold much value in the first place)

Use prospects to trade for star players (Cause Harden, Nomar, DLee, and ARam just magically appeared)

Stop giving No Trade Clauses past the third year of a contract, to players that already have 5+ years experience when signed, some of those already with the cubs. In other words make sure to risk losing a player to another team or have to pay them more money in order to maybe get a one or two year window before a players automatic 5/10 no trade rights kick in.

And of course, if you do this, you'll have a GM who leads his team to victory in the playoffs because the day to day of how a team does in a short series is determined by a guy in a club box. The Cubs need someone who can really do this like: Terry Ryan (Whose twins made the playoffs 4 times, but only made it out of the first round once, and never made the world series) or Dave Dombrowski (I thought being competitive every year was step one? His teams have made the playoffs exactly twice in his entire career) or Schuerholz (Because 1 WS title in 14 playoffs is the perfect example of a GM whose teams finish the job)

I found our right fielder who hits left handed pitchers really well:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3793001

That one's for you, Chad.

I sign Hoffman and call it an off-season. If Fukudome and Pie both tank and we need a RF, trade for one then.

Since odds are REALLY HIGH that both Fukudome and Pie tank. Let's go ahead and get the RFer now. Do you really trust Hendry to not drag his feet in picking up a RFer during the season? We are 1 bat short. Let Pie/fukudome/Reed Johnson fight out CF. Pick up one of

Abreu
Burrell
Dunn
Hermida
Willingham
Bradley

and stick em in Right. It should be a buyers market at this point.

Scratch Burrell from the list. We don't need another RH hitter.

I'd rather have a lefty. But if the decision is Pat Burrell or Felix Pie. I'd go with Burrell.

Agree. I'd love for that RF to be left-handed.

But, I'm not saying no to a guy who consistently gets on base somewhere between 365 and 400 and is almost assured of 25 homers and 90 RBI.

dr. aaron, unless you're by hendry's side 24/7, i wouldn't go around saying that he's dragging his feet. there are a lot of steps to these processes that we do not see or hear about. i am confident that he's doing what is necessary to get the LH RF since they stated that at the beginning of the off-season as a priority. It will get done. the only question is whether it is by FA or by trade.

Does he do that BEFORE or AFTER he completes the Brian Roberts and Jake Peavy trades?

Neither Peavy nor Roberts were ever priority targets planned by Hendry's staff. Both of those deals appeared unsolicited by the Cubs and Hendry took the time to kick the tires on those, but in the end they weren't necessary.

OTOH they have stated that acquiring a LH RF is a priority so that will get done.

He wasted the entire week kicking the tires on the Peavy trade and dumpster diving.
His job was to get us a LH middle of the order RF. Instead we get Gathright.

and gathright is going to start 150+ games, and the season starts tommorow, and hendry volunteers at the ASPCA to kill puppies in gas chambers for fun.

How the fuck do you know he 'wasted the entire week?'. You really think he was screening all calls not coming from SD? That he hasn't been doing anything else? That discussing a possible trade for Jake Peavy was a waste of time?

Agreed,

we can be sure that Hendry will get a Jack Jones, or Jeromey Burnitz, or Cliff Floyd or Fukudome.

If he gets a guy like that. Then we have nothing to worry about in Rf come 2009!!!!

There's only one solid defender on that list.

We're one bat short of what? Yes, I trust Hendry who has brought in Ramirez, Garciaparra and Harden in mid-season to make a trade if necesary. Was your question sarcastic?

If we've got $5 million more to spend, I'd rather have that spent on Hoffman (guess about $4 for him) than to dump half of Marquis's salary and bring in a RF who we may not really need while depleting our rotation depth.

Hendry isn't a go out and get a guy midseason type of GM. He is a wait in the weeds and try to steal someone guy. How long did it take him to get a DLee replacement in 2006? I'll give him props on Harden this past season. But that is 1 deal in 8 years at the helm.

It seems like it took him a couple of weeks to get Phil Nevin?

Every year the Cubs have been in it, he's brought someone in. Some, Ramirez, Harden, Garciparra have been bigger trades than others, Trachsel, Lawton, Nevin.

We need Abreu not Bradley. Everything I have read, points that Abreu is more valuable. Bradley scares that hell out of me. The Cubs do not need someone to come in an shake up the clubhouse. They need someone to come in and show some clutch. The more I look into keeping Marquis, the more I am buying into it. He is a fifth stater. He has fifth start stats. His only problem is that he makes about $5MM more than he should. That is Hendry's fault for that inflated contract. The time to trade Marquis was last year. Let's get our RF - Abreu and get our leadoff hitter: Roberts' for prospects or Figgins for Dlee. One more bullpen pitcher would also be nice.

Everything I have read, points that Abreu is more valuable

you should find better reading material....

derrick lee to the angels there is a move i would
not have a problem with(although derrick lee would
probally have a problem with that)

Don't think Dlee is going anywhere.....he has no trade. Sitting pat and waiting for the market to come down is a great idea now..we will be able to get rid of Marquis and then alocate that money for Bradley or Abreu. Pie is as good as gone with Gathright being signed...there is no use for two relatively similar players on the same roster...what was the logic of that move?

"what was the logic of that move?"

I believe it's called 'Piniellian' logic.

Pretty cool new feature from FanGraphs. They've added a value over replacement feature. Shows both wins over replacement and the player's dollar value vs. actual salary.

Here's Fonzie's, if you're interested. Last table all the way at the bottom.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=847&...

Are those salaries right for Soriano? I shudder to think of what the next GM is going to think about that contract.

not losing 150-200ab's will help his "spreadsheet value" of those replacement player projections.

not hitting 1st and actually using his RBI swing for RBIs that don't rely on the 7/8/9 hitters would help his "value" too.

he's due to make 18m flat for a bulk of his future contract.

WARP doesn't take runs and RBI's into account.

Edit - God I hate touchpads.

runs and outs are the basis for most of the "replacement level" stats like VORP...most don't do the RBI thing, though.

WARP is on what revision now? 3? 20? 48?

it's cool that most of these "replacement level" stats people play with are built with the idea that the stat can evolve, though. it makes for a mess while it's all progressing, but once it settles it should be nice.

Derrick Lee's value in '08 was 13.7, but he made 13.3. 17.4 to 13.3 in '07.

[EDIT] Does this just calculate total value?
Meaning, Gathright had 279 AB's last year, while Pie had 83. Gathright's value was $1.7 while Pie's was $0.2. Does this mean that he was a better player? or only that he had more AB's?

It works like this:

You take a replacement level team and assign them a replacement level salary. So 25 X league minimum with a bit more kicked in for injuries (not sure if they do that). So say your replacement level team makes $14 million, and you expect them to win 40 games.

Then you take the average team's salary and subtract $14 million. So say it's $96 million - $14 = $82

For $82 million you get 41 wins (81= average - 40 wins a replacement team would get). So each win above replacement is worth $82 million/ 41 = $2 million. So a player who nets you 10 wins above replacement is worth $2 x 10 million (plus minimum salary, whatever that is now, $400?) = $20.4 million

The WARP stat that is based on is not a rate stat, so it is affected by PA's, and innings in the field and base stealing.

So, um, numbers+numbers=numbers, then?

Technically that is incorrect, Joe.

It should be (numbers + numbers) x numbers = more numbers

I always wondered where the kids who said "This is stupid, what am I ever going to use this crap for?" in algebra classes would end up.

We end up right here, on TCR. Unlike you. Oh wait.

BUT...I was the one who said, "when are we ever going to need this shit?" while getting A's. Then I studied Theology, and completely forgot it all. The Israelites didn't have advanced mathematics or a legitimate number system for calculating large quantities.

MLB Trade Rumors says that the Cubs might pursue Marquis. I'm on the side that is opposed to this.

Do a refresh, I think you've got 2006 loaded there.

It was the author's typo, he fixed it by now after commenters pointed it out.

Not Cubs related, but a video of Chad driving up to see the parents Christmas morning:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tm2Jy64b0dI

that is so damn metal.

Here is an interesting article on why the Cubs need Bradley. At least for one year.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/28387209/

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8992702/Big-Uni...

per Ken Rosenthal.

No longer dreaming of the surly one as a Cub.

Not that they had the best pitching in the world, because they didn't, but that is a team that needs OFFENSE, not more starting pitching.

So you're saying Randy Johnson can't hit?

I was reading the comments on the Foxsports site about Randy Johnson and damnnnnnnnn he is getting slammed left at right.

Guys getting paid more than Randy Johsnon are 5.00 ERA pitchers who barely strikeout 100 guys a year. Johnson can easily post a sub 4.00 ERA (even at age 45) and still strike out a batter per inning pitched.

Sure the Giants need offense but Johnson isn't a bum.

Anyone notice his post All-Star break stats when he was finally fully healthy?

86ip - 2.41 ERA - 78 Strikeouts .232 BAA.

If I was a Giants fan i would be happy, because you could have Jason Marquis for 9 million per year.

LOL RODNEY Cedeno.

But no seriously, a lot of Cub fans have wanted to get rid of Lee AND Soriano. Just stop. I won't go into my ofseason advice, but I see a problem.

If the Cubs sign Dunn, he is obviously going to walk lot. If Lee hits behind him, well you know of his DP issues. Assuming the Cubs do NOT get a new right fielder, the line-up is going to get confusing. I don't neccesarily think our offense needs improvement, but too many guys are hitting out of order. Ramirez is a #3 hitter. Soriano is not a leadoff hiter. Lee shouldn't hit third.

Theriot
Johnson/Pie/Gathright
Ramirez
Soriano
Lee
Fukudome
Soto
DeRosa
P

Ok, Soriano doesn't hit many singles, and doesn't walk much so Lee hitting behind him is fine. Yes, I put DeRosa eight. I am also not a huge fan of Theriot leading off, but if Pie has an amazing Spring and is on the roster, he might get a chance.

Your lineup is symptomatic of the Cubs lineup as it's presently constructed - by all accounts, it would be a most traditional way to build a lineup, by utilizing all players of certain skill sets in their most natural spots.

In this case, unfortunately, you end up with the weakest links batting first and second, which wastes 100 PAs a year on your least valuable hitters.

I'm come to accept that for certain reasons Theriot is probably a good hitter to have batting first or second. But Johnson? Don't even get me started on Pie and Gathright. I'd rather see DeRo up there, or Lee.

To expect DeRosa to put up the same numbers as he did last year is unreasonable. Theriot hits a lot of singles and Lee grounds into too many DP's. I know its not a dream line-up, but probably what the Cubs will have to work with. Unless of course, we sign a new right fielder.

It's also unreasonable to expect Theriot to put up the same average and OB numbers he did last year.

Just bat Lee leadoff if you're that afraid of the double plays (Theriot hit into double plays at a greater rate than Lee did, by the way) - he hits fewer HR's and walks more than Soriano.

I actually disagree. If Theriot had hit many doubles and Homeruns, I think it would be unreasonable to expect him to repeat. However, he hit only singles basically, so repeating that with his swing shouldn't be a huge problem. The problem with Lee batting leadoff is that he is still going to hit likely over 20hr. Not only that he might get into a hot power streak. (5 hr in a week). Plus, he won't bunt.

As for CF, well Johnson would likely be the right-handed part of the platoon, while Pie and Gathright battle it out for the other spot(assuming Fukudome's in right). Aside from experience, there is nothing Gathright has that Pie doesn't. Pie showed huge improvements in September, and did a nice job in the winter leagues. Pie will be 24 next year, and say what you want, the Cubs have NEVER given him a legit shot. Play him for more than 12 games.

When Pie first got to Iowa last year, he was terrible, likely because he was just sitting on the bench in the Majors.He was slow in May, solid in June, but hit around .370 in July.

this logic process seems eerily familiar.

If Theriot had hit many doubles and Homeruns, I think it would be unreasonable to expect him to repeat. However, he hit only singles basically, so repeating that with his swing shouldn't be a huge problem.

Theriot had a .340 BABIP last season. That is probably not sustainable.

putting aside the quote by theriot along the lines of "i dunno how i hit, i just swing the bat" (which would be scarey if true...and would be believed as hardcore fact and worthy of damning with some other players)...

the guy hits singles with a RF preference and his game depends on what 5 infielders can do to put a glove on the ball.

the guy gets his share of infield singles, but he's not a speed demon who can play with the minds of the infield making them wonder if he's gonna drop a bunt single and how deeply they should play on D.

The reason people bunt is because they can't on base otherwise, it's not an actually good thing.

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