Rob invited us to pitch in with our Hall of Fame predictions on Sunday night, but I didn't have a chance to reply until now. Here goes:
I predict Ricky Henderson will receive somewhere around 511 votes, Jim Rice will finally get in the Hall with, oh, I'll say 76.4% of the vote, and two clowns will even cast ballots for Jay Bell.
Speaking of Rice and the Hall, Dan Turkenkopf of Beyond the Box Score came up with the 10 best player comps for each of this year's leading HOF candidates.
(Turkenkopf tweaked Bill James' formula for player Similarity Scores to better account for park effects and playing era, thus the differences between the lists below and what you'll find at Baseball-Reference.com.)
Rice's comps, starting with the most similar hitter, include:
1. Willie Horton
2. Frank Thomas
3. Ellis Burks
4. George Hendrick
5. Vic Wertz
6. Bobby Thomson
7. Roy Sievers
8. Fred Lynn
9. Andres Gallaraga
10. Gil Hodges
Here is what Turkenkopf has to say about the Rice comparisons:
Not a Hall of Famer on the list. In case you were wondering, that's
not the Big Hurt in the number two spot. Rice's most similar players
were all very good players, but no one really is pushing any of them
for the HOF except for Hodges. There's been a lot of virtual ink
spilled discussing whether or not Rice deserves to be elected and I'm
not going to rehash them here, but I will say that I think Rice will be
one of the least-deserving players elected when he goes in.
Now here are Turkenkopf's 10 best comps for the guy who finished third in this year's HOF balloting, former Cub Andre Dawson:
1. Billy Williams
2. George Foster
3. Goose Goslin
4. Chuck Klein
5. Dave Parker
6. Tony Perez
7. Dave Winfield
8. Duke Snider
9. Juan Gonzalez
10. Al Simmons
And his commentary:
Dawson's top ten strongly suggests he should be elected. However, this
is one of those cases Bill James warned about where similarity scores
can be deceiving. All of the Hall of Famers on the list were
substantially better offensive players than Dawson. I think Dawson is
helped by the lack of an explicit category for OBP in the sim score
calculation...Dawson's
one of those players who almost perfectly represents the dividing line
between the Hall of Fame and the Hall of Very Good. He doesn't make my
Hall, but I don't begrudge any one who would vote for him.
For the record, the Dawson list includes seven Hall of Famers--Williams, Goslin, Klein, Perez, Winfield, Snider, and Simmons.
You can look up Jay Bell's top 10 comps on your own.
Comments
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
Thanks, Cubnut.
And Jay Bell's comps:
1. Toby Harrah
2. Ray Durham
3. Bobby Grich
4. Benito Santiago
5. Devon White
6. Alan Trammell
7. Frank White
8. Edgar Renteria
9. Alvin Dark
10. Andre Dawson
Kidding about Dawson.
Bell's number 10 is Amos Otis.
Ted Lilly's Comps
James came up with these Comps for TL:
10. Achilles
9. Suleiman the Magnificent
8. Theresa, Mother
7. Apollo, God of the Sun
6. Floyd Bannister
5. Ted Williams
4. General George Patton
3. Mr. Universe
2. Confucius
1. Ted Lilly
Interestingly, when James tried to come up with comps for Ted's abs and biceps, none were found.
Re: Ted Lilly's Comps
Confucius--part of the first wave of Asians to join the Major Leagues, back in the 530 B.C. season.
Re: Ted Lilly's Comps
Couldn't get used to the harder, larger American baseball, and petered out after 2 1/2 seasons with the New York Highlanders.
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
I really don't like similarity scores. I think you have to be really careful about how you use them. This guy has identified some of the principal flaws, like park effects and era. They also do not factor in defense or OBP, which this guy's tweaks do not purport to fix.
Plus, I don't think enough focus goes into what the actual scores are. Scores less than, say, 900 are not all that similar. You see some players where the tenth player is above 900 and some players where the most similar player is at 875. Ron Santo's most similar player is Dale Murphy, who is at 875 (which, among other things, gives effect to a postional adjustment of minus 36 for Murphy because Santo played third and Murphy played the outfield).
Every year at Hall of Fame time the newspaper articles are full of references to similarity scores and the HOF monitor, without the writers knowing how they are calculated and what they mean. As quick and dirty measures go, I think they may have done more harm than good. Perhaps they can be helpful in being the start of an inquiry, but they're really pretty superficial.
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
I have to disagree about the HoF monitor, because it does measure to some degree the things that make a player famous. MVP votes, Cy Young votes, All Star games, batting titles etc.
A lot of people want to turn the hall of fame into the hall of SS's who had 8000 PA's and an OPS+ of 110, but I think that player popularity should be worked into something called 'Hall of Fame' - it's not the Hall of WARP1, after all.
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
i'm so looking forward to rickey's HOF speech. i hope he brings dramatic background music to play on a boombox while he speaks...that would rooooooock.
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
Off topic - but Braves high on Lowe. He signs. 60/4 also the fabulous Craig Monroe signs with the...
Pirates.
WATCH OUT NL CENTRAL!
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
linkish on above:
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/st...
A nice staff now assembled in Atlanta. They did a "Hendry" from 2007.
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
Frank Wren finally can get a cup of coffee.
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
LOL. I just got that!
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
*golf clap*
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
Oh ROB G....
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
http://www.thestar.com/article/569790
Dempster still deciding about WBC, Cubs probably won't let Harden pitch
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-tue-cub...
sale delayed...ever so slightly..
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
"sale delayed...ever so slightly.."
Wow! I am shocked!
Squeezing the last penny out...
RICKETTS! RICKETTS! RICKETTS!
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
Bud Selig delaying the process, so that his boy Canning can jump in.
Anything to help the Brewers and the White Sox!
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
Man, I LOATHE him, Dr.
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
In another signing:
I did NOT SEE this on the blog - but, Jerry Hairston, Jr. re-ups with the Reds?! Did not anyone see the significance of this??
Will the Cubs have an answer for this?
http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/01/hairs...
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
hairston's finally got his back fixed and it's a world of difference in his game.
his middle-IF days may be numbered, but he could become a hell of a #2 hitter if his back stays healthy.
for years he thought he had an untreatable back condition...last year he got a new diagnosis and got it treated. he's a much more comfortable player with the bat now.
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
One word: Miles.
funny
Cubnut sent me this link..
http://thesportshernia.typepad.com/blog/2009/01/ot...
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
AZ Phil:
What is the current assessment of Ascanio? Ohman and Infante were certainly usefull players last year, and it doesn't seem that Ascanio is ranked anywhere among the Cubs' top prospects.
Is he still a significant prospect, and if so, what's his ceiling?
As always, thanks for the knowledge.
No Votes For You
Eligible players who got zip, zero, nadda..
http://homerderby.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-player...
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
Proposed rule change would make home teams for play-in games decided by head-to-head record rather than coin flips.
Amen.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090113&c...
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
"But now teams would rather have it based on head-to-head records, records within division play, etc."
I think coin flips may be more fair. If you're playing a team six times, the chances for a 3-3 split is relatively good. Then you've got situations where a team in a tougher division gets punished. First they had to play in a tougher division and they have to play a 163rd game because of it, and then because they played in the tougher division they've got to play it on the road.
I would say for the wild card it should at least be record versus the league as the #2 tie-breaker. For a division championship the divisional record would be good.
Re: Rice, Andre, and My Retroactive Hall of Fame Predictions
I would agree with that vis a vis the wild card and division. I really can't think of anything more fair than head-to-head record to determine who gets the advantage of being the home team (and the extra $).
Harry Caray
#18 of all-time broadcasters
http://www.insidesocal.com/tomhoffarth/archives/20...
Joe Buck #31, Milo Hamilton #32 (vomits)
Re: Harry Caray
Any list with Bill Walton on it, is bunk.
Re: Harry Caray
Bradshaw, Morgan etc...
Re: Harry Caray
Sort of bizarre list.
Hamilton, other than always being amazed that the strikeouts for a pitcher were coming via call or swing, was actually pretty good - Harry Caray pettiness aside.
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