Cubs Prospect List-Mania 2009

For the third year running, I go through the various prospect lists. I've also started compiling them at Wiklifield.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Josh Vitters, 3B

Four-Star Prospects
2. Jeff Samardzjia,RHP

3. Jose Ceda, RHP

Three-Star Prospects
4. Hak-Ju Lee, SS
5. Andrew Cashner, RHP
6. Tyler Colvin, OF
7. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP
8. Ryan Flaherty, SS
Two-Star Prospects
9. Welington Castilo, C

10. Donald Veal, LHP

11. Micah Hoffpauir, 1B

Just Missing: Matt Cerda, INF; Jay Jackson, RHP; Logan Watkins, INF

Sleeper: Kyler Burke

What They Say: The Cubs are a very tough team to rank. That said, the top three prospects on my initial snapshot never moved, and you see them exactly where they started. Everything after that is a bit of a mess however, as one could jumble up the players ranked fourth through eleventh in any order and make some kind of reasonable argument for all.

1. Josh Vitters
2. Jeff Samardzija
3. Andrew Cashner
4. Dae-Eun Rhee
5. Welington Castillo
6. Kevin Hart
7. Starlin Castro
8. Ryan Flaherty
9. Jay Jackson
10. Hak-Ju Lee

BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average - Josh Vitters
Best Power Hitter - Josh Vitters
Best Strike-Zone Discipline - Sam Fuld
Fastest Baserunner - Tony Campana
Best Athlete - Brandon Guyer
Best Fastball - Jeff Samardzija
Best Curveball - Casey Lambert
Best Slider - Andrew Cashner
Best Changeup - Dae-Eun Rhee
Best Control - Esmailin Caridad
Best Defensive Catcher - Luis Flores
Best Defensive Infielder - Darwin Barney
Best Infield Arm - Junior Lake
Best Defensive Outfielder - Sam Fuld
Best Outfield Arm - Kyler Burke

What They Say: Promotions and trades have contributed to thinning out the system, and so have a series of uninspiring drafts. Chicago hasn't gotten long-term production out of a first-round pick since Kerry Wood in 1995.
Soto, an 11th-round pick in 2001, was the first position player the Cubs have signed and developed into an all-star since they drafted Joe Girardi in 1986.

1. Josh Vitters (B+)
2. Jeff Samardzija (B)
3. Ryan Flaherty (B)
4. Andrew Cashner (B-)
5. Hak-Ju Lee (B-)
6. Jay Jackson (B-)
7. Tyler Colvin (C+)
8. Welington Castillo (C+)
9. Dae-Eun Rhee (C+)
10. Aaron Shafer (C+)
11. Starlin Castro (C+)
12. Junior Lake (C+)
13. Dan McDaniel (C+)
14. Micah Hoffpauir (C)
15. Esmailin Caridad (C)
16. Donald Veal (C)
17. Josh Kroeger (C)
18. Tony Thomas (C)
19. Chris Carpenter (C)
20. Mitch Atkins (C)

Others include Darwin Barney, Justin
Bristow, Matt Cerda, Hung-Wen Chen, Dumas Garcia, Brandon Guyer, Josh
Harrison, Dylan Johnston, Casey Lambert, Alex Maestri, Jovan Rosa, Drew
Rundle, Marquez Smith, Logan Watkins, and Ty Wright. Most of these guys
could rank anywhere from 14-20 depending on what you are looking for.

What They Say:  The Cubs system
has thinned out, and there is no one with impact hitting potential at
the higher levels. Guys like Vitters, Flaherty, and the AZL tools guys
give hope that that could change in the future. Samardzija is
completely unpredictable, he could be the second coming of Bobby Jenks
or he could totally flame out. It wouldn’t’ surprise me if Cashner
ended up the same way, alternating good and bad runs and leaving
everyone scratching their heads.

1-10 | 2- 20

1. Josh Vitters
2. Jeff Samardzija
3. Andrew Cashner
4. Welington Castillo
5. Jay Jackson
6. Ryan Flaherty
7. Mitch Atkins
8. Tyler Colvin
9. Kevin Hart
10. Micah Hoffpauir
11. Esmailin Caridad
12. Brandon Guyer
13. Marcos Mateo
14. Jovan Rosa
15. James Russell
16. Dan McDaniel
17. Chris Carpenter
18. Aaron Shafer
19. Ryan Acosta
20. Matt Cerda

What They Say: The numbers above can be downplayed because of
how dominant Cashner was in the Florida State League postseason with
Class High-A Daytona. He was described by one scout as “lights out,”
tossing six scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts and retiring all but
four batters faced. His fastball was clocked at 98 mph on several
occasions with a top-out speed of 99 mph, and he featured a hard
curveball that Cubs Scouting Director Tim Wilken said was registered at
87 mph. A changeup is in the works to give Cashner a third pitch, but
the Cubs have said they’re going to let Cashner dictate his own future
as either a starter or reliever.

Arizona Phil's Top 15

1. Jeff Samardzija

2. Josh Vitters

3a. Jose Ceda

3b. Andrew Cashner

4. Welington Castillo

5. Ryan Flaherty

6. Kevin Hart

7. Tyler Colvin

8. Jay Jackson

9. Micah Hoffpauir

10. Esmailin Caridad

11. Mitch Atkins

12. Donald Veal

13. Jovan Rosa

14. Brandon Guyer

15. Dan McDaniel

And finally Rob G's Top 15...

I get to bend the rules though, and instead of sticking to the standard Rookie of the Year qualifications that most folks use as a cutoff, I use a more vague, "hasn't really gotten his shot in the majors yet" qualification. I'll keep my descriptions short though to lessen the risk that I say something as dumb as I did about Carlos Marmol two years ago. I tend to put more emphasis on Double A and Triple A numbers which is dilemma since are better prospects seem to be in the lower ranks.

1. Jeff Samardzija - Two fastballs with movement that can go 95+. You have to have faith he'll develop his change and/or slider considering how little time he's actually been dedicated to pitching.
   
2. Josh Vitters - I guess I'm believing the hype. K:BB rate is a bit troubling.
   
3. Andrew Cashner - Can throw 99mph, you say? You get a lot of chances to fail when you can throw that hard.
4. Micah Hoffpauir - Loosely reminds me of Brant Brown coming up with the Cubs, just in that both were blocked at their position and were never truly considered top prospects in the system. Hoffpauir has shown more power than Brown in his later years, and being a serviceable back-up/fill-in is a better than a lot of prospects end up.
5. Jay Jackson - I'm a sucker for a 5.53 K:BB ratio.
6. Ryan Flaherty - Time to talk like a scout, could be a left-handed Mark DeRosa.
7. Kevin Hart - Nothing too special, but he'll find a home in someone's bullpen one day. Had another nice run in Iowa last year after being demoted.
8. Hak-Ju Lee - Compared favorably to Derek Jeter's toolset,  good enough for me.
9. Jeff Stevens - He might not dominate the majors, but a 3.24 K:BB ratio and a .72 HR/9 rate in the minors is promising.
10. John Gaub - 100 K's in 64 innings? Are you kidding me?
11. Welington Castillo- Nothing too exciting in his minor league numbers, but he's been young for his leagues and you hope the bat catches up to the defense.
12. Marcos Mateo- Scout.com says he can top 95 with a good hard slider, that'll give you plenty opportunities.
13. Justin Berg- mid 90's sinkers are tough to come by and the Cubs wouldn't have put him on the 40-man if they didn't have some faith in him.
14. Mitch Atkins - a nice three year run now although the numbers aren't overwhelming. He did add a cutter last year which could explain the jump in prospect status along with being just 23 years old.
15. Tyler Colvin - the numbers suffered for the most part last year, but did put up a .983 OPS in August and nearly tripled his previous year's walk total while striking out at about the same rate.