Cubs Win Another Simulated NL Central Division

Baseball Prospectus had the Cubs running away with the NL Central a few weeks back. CHONE projections1 thinks it will be a tight race with the St. Louis Cardinals. They have the Cubs at 88 wins, just five ahead of the Cardinals, six ahead of the Reds and seven ahead of the Brewers.

Furthermore, they've got the Cubs listed 10th in their power rankings, fourth in the NL behind the Phillies, Mets and Braves.

I think we can infer two things from this new information. First, the Cubs aren't quite the locks to win the NL Central that some of us have led ourselves to believe. Second, that Sean Smith who runs the CHONE projections is a Cub-hater2. I think that's irrefutable. I even think I found a picture of him. 

1 - Is it pronounced Shawn? If so, I would have just called it the FIGGINS projections.

2 - Disclaimer: Sarcasm.

Tags: 
Cubs Projections
Submitted by Rob G. on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 3:30pm
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Comments

Submitted by Wes
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 5:09pm

Nice footnote usage. I like it. I'll be looking for your annotated bibliography shortly.

Also, I'm willing to make a wager on just about any imaginable terms that all three of the Cards, Reds, and Brewers will not win 80 games.

90 wins for Cleveland seems high, too, considering the back 3 of their rotation is currently Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes, and Aaron Laffey.

Furthermore, they have the Cubs projected to win more games than the 4 of the 5 teams ranked immediately in front of them in their power rankings. I know those two aren't directly connected, but still. Seems like a way to hurt your own credibility, doesn't it?

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 5:28pm

the braves?

okay, whatever.

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 5:33pm

btw...what is up with statheads and kotchman?

i just don't get it...it's like going apeshit over sean casey, but he's a favorite of a lot of statheads.

Submitted by CPH2133
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 5:38pm

You didn't go apeshit over The Mayor when we was in Cincy? 99-2005 hit over .300 every season but 2 (.291 one of those seasons), averaged 36 doubles, about 15 HRs and 75 RBIs, never struck out more than 88 times and was 14th in MVP voting in 1999. Casey Kochman will be lucky to be as good as The Mayor

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 5:41pm

that's pretty much what i expect...well, maybe not consistent .300 hitting...

talking to some statheads they're ready to rub my face in the "fact" he's a 30+HR 40-ish double guy waiting to happen.

i have no idea wtf those people are watching or looking at.

i still find it odd they're burying his arm at 1st rather than trying him in the OF, but whatever...maybe he's not good at catching popups or something.

Submitted by CPH2133
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 5:51pm

Doesn't Dunn have a cannon arm too? I liken the athletic ability in the field of Kotchman to that of Dunn's...horrible.

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 6:08pm

i wouldnt call kotchman's arm a cannon, but he's got a good one as far as velocity.

that said, i have no idea how the guy handles running/tracking stuff on the fly.

Submitted by CPH2133
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 5:30pm

"90 wins for Cleveland seems high, too, considering the back 3 of their rotation is currently Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes, and Aaron Laffey."

Mark Shapiro agrees. “If you had to point to one aspect of the club that I’m least comfortable with, it would be our rotation.” —General manager Mark Shapiro.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AkTyy8aY2jHR...

If Westbrook can return at a decent level around the all-star break, they'll be okay. If they can get into the playoffs you only need two pitchers.

Submitted by kmokeefe
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 7:25pm

"If they can get into the playoffs you only need two pitchers."

Having 3 playoff caliber pitchers must be what's been killing us.

Submitted by CPH2133
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 5:33pm

The FIGGINS projections also don't have a single team more than 9 games under .500, so obviously something is a miss

Submitted by kmokeefe
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 7:31pm

And somehow we won the division with 11 wins being the most for any starting pitcher...

Submitted by Wes
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 5:41pm

Donnie Veal got the win for the Pirates in their opener against Philly.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=2902...

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 6:07pm

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/14495...

sore back...

article says Indians played Cubs today, but it was the Giants.

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 6:44pm

...f'n love MLB Network...still.

BOS@MIN spring training...whatever...it's live wood bat baseball on Feb. 25.

gee, i wonder if there will be any on tommorow...oh gee, yes there will.

etc etc etc...

Submitted by Ryno
on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 9:40pm

1 Cubs
2 Reds
3 Cards
4 Pirates
5 Brewers
6 Astros

Stop laughing. I'm serious.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Thu, 02/26/2009 - 6:36am

Give me the over on the Cubs top four starters for wins and the under on ERA for all five of them, please, Mr. Figgins.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Thu, 02/26/2009 - 12:41pm

Yea... I would do the same. And I would possibly add Marshall to the list of over on the wins, under on the ERA also.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Thu, 02/26/2009 - 1:05pm

My fear on Marshall would be that he didn't get the 5th starter's gig, and then if he only pitches 90 bullpen innings you have to deal with the small sample size variability, but if he wins the job I'd throw him on there as well.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Thu, 02/26/2009 - 1:28pm

Agreed... I should have prefaced that with "if he is actually the #5 starter."

Submitted by fdflash
on Thu, 02/26/2009 - 7:58am

So let me get this straight. The Braves will be better than the Cubs, and there are 6 AL teams better than ANY NL team. Ummmm OK. Time to get back on their meds (or off their meds).

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