It's Also a Kick in the Junk

Our pal Tim Souers was inspired by Saturday's post and gave me this awesome graphic. And I don't really care to harp on the trade, but let me give you my final thoughts. The Cardinals got a good player and it should help them...a little. DeRosa was a 3.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) last year, he's been 1.1 so far this year as his defense at third hasn't been too great (at least according to UZR). The Cardinals are going to get him for a little over a half year and the 2 main guys he's replacing are Joe Thurston and Brian Barden who have combined for 0.8 WAR to this point. You can't just simply add and subtract it though, so my rough back-of-the-envelope guestimating says he's probably gonna be good for anything between 1-3  more wins on the year for the Cardinals, which is indeed significant for an individual player.

As for the Cubs not getting him, if we go by prospect lists and assuming the Indians like our pitchers as much as they liked Chris Perez and a supposedly top-end player to be named later, it would have cost something in the neighborhood of Jeff Samardzija and Jay Jackson. Samardzija has a no-trade clause of course, so maybe it would require Sean Marshall or Randy Wells and maybe that second player would be Kevin Hart or Angel Guzman instead of Jackson or another decent arm that could be ready for the majors by next year. It's a whole lot of speculating on who the Indians might like and who the Cubs are willing to trade, but let's take some educated guesses.

So in theory if the Cubs met the Indian asking price, it would be something in the neighborhood of (let's just say) Marshall and Jackson for John Gaub, Chris Archer, Jeff Stevens and a half a season of Mark DeRosa, plus the $2M or so added to the Cubs payroll that is owed DeRosa. That actually doesn't sound too terrible for the Cubs, they basically replace some of the arms they would have had to given up to reacquire DeRosa with the initial trade and the Cubs get back the wind beneath their wings.

Looking at the WAR values of the guys that DeRosa would be taking playing time from (Fontenot, Miles, Blanco, Scales and Jake Fox), they add up to -0.1 WAR so far and as I said you can't just simply and add and subtract due to playing time and small sample sizes and all that, but had the Cubs been able to make this trade back in early May (and the asking price was reportedly higher back then), you're talking probably 2-4 wins over a full season and 1-2 over the last two months (once again, more a guestimate than anything). The impact probably would have been less if Lou would have had just sucked it up and played Jake Fox at third to begin with instead of having his Neifi/Lee 2006 moment. With Aramis Ramirez due back soon, that impact is going to be a bit limited, although we still don't know if we're getting the old Ramirez back and how many days off he'll have to take. I guess I would have liked for Hendry to pull the trigger, DeRosa's a quality player that has been able to get it done with runners on this year. Whether that would translate to the Cubs or not I can't say for certain, the slump and inexplicable inability to get a hit with runners on seems to be nearly a team-wide affliction and maybe DeRosa would have caught it like a cold.

I'm disappointed that DeRosa could be the dagger in the Cubs 2009 hearts and it sure does seem like the Cubs could have avoided some of this mess back in January. But he's a Cardinal now and be damn certain I hope he strikes out everytime he comes up. And every moron at Wrigley that ends up cheering for him in a Cardinals uniform, go jump off a cliff with the other lemmings.


In other news, Aaron Miles is back to the disabled list with a hyperextended right elbow and the Cubs have called up Sam Fuld. Soriano has had four mult-hit games in his last five so I'm guessing that Fuld won't get a shot at being a leadoff hitter/center fielder for a few games, not that I really thought he had shot at that, but maybe he can spell a still struggling Kosuke Fukudome. Fuld's warmed up with the weather down in Iowa with a 398/474/506/980 OPS line in June.

 

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Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

If I got to a Cubs/Cards game this season, I'd probably give DeRosa a small hand the first time he came up for his years of service, but after that I'd boo him like every other Cardinal on the field.

I remember going to a Cubs/Cards game about 5 years ago and sitting like 5 rows behind the Cards dugout, and Matt Morris had a no-hitter after the 6th inning. I stood up as he was walking off the field and screamed at the top of my lungs, "Congratulations on your no-hitter, Morris! You are my f-ing hero!" Needless to say, he gave me a dirty look and looked pissed going into the dugout.

He gave up a hit the next inning and we came back and won the game in the 9th, so my job was done. The moral of my story is... FUCK THE CARDINALS!!

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

I was a little off on the timing of the Morris near no-hitter Cubs/Cards game (June 7, 2001). The no-hitter was broken up by the professional hitter Matt Stairs with 2 outs in the 7th, and we eventually came back to win it in the 10th inning... it was a thing of beauty. Looking at the box score brings back memories of the shit players we had then... Ojeda, Zuleta, Coomer, Hundley, Dunwoody, Cairo... busters all!

way off-topic

I was looking for something else and stumbled across this...quite old.

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/01/b...

Just a Q&A by Bill James and not that you have to agree with all his ideas, but I find them all to be very interesting ideas. I know folks just want affirmation for their own beliefs and tear apart what they already don't believe, but an interesting read if anything...a few Cubs things in there.

Re: way off-topic

I think this quote is probably most appropriate for our current predicament:

"There will always be people who are ahead of the curve and people who are behind the curve. There will never be a shortage of stupidity."

Re: way off-topic

plenty of gems...I liked this one:

Most successful sports tend to trim and snip their rules to keep the
game interesting. Baseball people like to think their game is perfect,
so we drag our flaws forward from generation to generation.

Re: way off-topic

Wow, this is a stat guy and I actually found myself agreeing with a lot of it. I thought this exchange was fun:

Q: Is clutch hitting a repeatable/retain-able skill?

A: I don’t know.

That argument will go on forever.

Re: way off-topic

that is the stupidest f'n question anyone could ask an educated baseball person.

clutch hitting...skill? what and what?

this is a game where success is marked by fucking up 6-7 out of 10 times.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

Why is Dero posing like that? It's like he's torturing us. I don't like the fucker now. lol.

I see Miles finally went on the DL and Sam Fuld is called up.

Re: Booing DeRosa

What a BOZO remark! As if Mark DeRosa ever wanted to be traded to the Cardinals. ..

Boo Hendry not DeRo.

Re: Booing DeRosa

whoever said anything about booing DeRosa, although I'd certainly due that before cheering him to beat the Cubs.

Re: Booing DeRosa

I'd boo DeRosa like any other Cardinal player, just the same as I cheered for Edmonds when he played for us. Nothing personal towards Mark, I just hate the Cardinals and he plays for the enemy now...

Re: Booing DeRosa

my bad, missed that you said something about booing him, thought navigator's comment was directe at me.

I'm so vain, I thought that comment was about me.

Re: I'm so vain, I thought that comment was about me.

Plus, I would never criticize you.

Re: Booing DeRosa

You probably think this song is about you...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gO4xVWhr24

⊙ω⊙ 

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

Since I'm not too optimistic about the Cub's season these days anyways, I kind of wouldn't mind seeing DeRosa destroy the Cubs this year. The rest of the Cards: Screw them, I wish rotator cuff surgery on all of them. But I wouldn't mind DeRo giving Hendry a huge middle finger on our behalf.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

I kind of wouldn't mind seeing DeRosa destroy the Cubs this year

that's perfectly ridiculous...this is why the Cubs can't have nice things.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

FWIW, just saw this. If it turned out the be the correct list of steroid users, it'll make for some interesting goings-on in Cubdom:

http://rotoinfo.com/read_article.php?articleId=318

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

Yikes.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

that's perfectly random, sort of like the leaked Mitchell names the day before that almost none turned out to be true.

but for fun, those with Cubs ties around that time...some before, some after...

Soriano, Bradley, Nomar, Craig Monroe, Derrek Lee, Alou, Sosa, Corey Patterson, Sosa, Prior, Wood, Clement, Alfonseca, Juan Cruz, Aramis Ramirez, Jeromy Burnitz, Cliff Floyd...

probably missed a name or two...

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

I always knew Clement was a user.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

I think those were probably inhalable steroids for that asthma.

The HGH was probably for that too.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

They don't even mention or cite any source from where that list came from. It's probably some guy in his mom's basement who listed the people he doesn't like or who he thinks used.

I don't have it anymore, but I did a one-to-one match up of the pre-Mitchell list with the actual one, and only about a THIRD were correct and many of those we already knew about. Even guys like Pujols were on that first list. In some many ways the internet is better than print media, but this is one of the areas where it fails miserably - starting rumors with little accountability or basis of fact. At some point, however, that list WILL be leaked to a reporter from somewhere and we'll get to see it.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

Would have to agree here. There's not nearly enough middle relievers and bench players on this list, and it's also at a glance seems to be sorted by team, like someone went to baseballreference.com and went through the 2003 rosters just picking guys. The Cardinals seem to be the cleanest team in the majors, so that's my suspicion of who this guy likes.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

Also remember that many (if not the whole 40-man roster) on the 03 Wsox team refused to take the test as under the rules of the testing a refusal meant a postive test result and the Sox as a team wanting permant testing implemented. So a "real" list would have a alot 03 Wsux on it.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

Actually it wouldn't have any White Sox on it because this list supposedly came from the lab and consequently there wouldn't have been any positive samples. But it proves the validity, or lack thereof, regardless.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

The White Sox were planning to not take the tests, which would automatically put them as positive. However, the union pressured them to do it, and they all took the test.

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

18 guys on that list played for the Cubs in 2003 or in years after 2003. A small handful of former Cubs on the list left before 2003 also.

11 White Sox on that list, including 3 of their 5 starting pitchers their World Series year.

If that list is real, and we have to believe that even if it's not many of those names are accurate, we know that for a fact on a few of those, then this is just a disaster. The only good thing for baseball is that it gets leaked so many years after the fact and that there are so many stars on there it probably kills any outrage to do something about it. Realistically, if it's really the list, would Cub fans want DLee, Sori, ARam, Bradley, and Z all punished now? Most wouldn't. Personally I'd still like to see every PED cheater have their hands cut off. Woohoo!

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

Luckily the Cubs don't have over 200 million committed to the guys on that list. Oh wait.........

Re: It's Also a Kick in the Junk

I would venture to say that if the real list ever does come out, and it probably will at some point, at least half of those names will likely be on there. Unfortunately none of those names would surprise me and at least 15-20 of those names on that list have already been busted in the Mitchell Report or that Signature Pharmacy scandal with HGH.

Zambrano trade looms?

This is a little off subject but the story seems to be picking up momentum in some underground circles - based on what Zambrano supposedly said - which is that IF he did not pitch for the Cubs he would only pitch for the White Sux or the Red Sox. How about this trade scenario (which would never happen, would it)?

Zambrano and Fontenot to the Red sox for Pedroia and Daisuke.

This would give us our 2b and a starter (who by the way is currently on the DL with a sore shoulder and struggling with a 1-5 record and an 8+ ERA). All indications are that it is not serious but weak due to improper off season workouts that took a backseat because he played in the WBC. It is a gamble but he is 29 and still has many years ahead. Also, Dice K would be able to relate to Fukudome and both could help each other out with their MLB growing pains and the language barrier. Zambrano would get a fresh start and soley concentrate on pitching. We also get an MVP calibre infielder AND leadoff man.

Harden can also fit into the mix for a quality middle reliever / closer.

Then we go get Pedro and have our rotation sorted.

Personally, I'm not ready to pull the plug on Z but he is starting to really get on the nerves of many people who have always backed him and his antics - including mine. Unfortunately, it might be time to try and cash in while we can.

Your thoughts?

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