Cubs Projected Post-2009 Roster & 2010 Payroll
This is (of course) very much subject to change, but as things stand right now, here are the projected roster and payroll for the Cubs circa post-season 2009 into Spring Training 2010.
The Cubs already have $118.325M committed to ten players for 2010, and if they offer arbitration to all nine players who will be eligible post-2009, that should add about another $13M to the 2010 payroll.
With 10 players signed for 2010 plus nine more eligible for salary arbitration post-2009, six "auto-renewal" players would be needed to fill-out the Opening Day 25-man roster. These six players would make the MLB minimum salary ($400K) or a bit more, and so that's about another $2.5M added to the 2010 payroll.
And then another $1M in payroll would be needed for players on the 40-man roster who are receiving a minor league split salary while on optional assignment to the minors, and that brings the projected 2010 Cubs payroll to a grand total of approximately $135M.
That $135M does not include any payroll that might be allocated to re-signing any of the Cubs four post-2009 MLB Article XX free-agents (Chad Fox, Kevin Gregg, Rich Harden, or Reed Johnson), or payroll that might be allocated to signing free-agents from other clubs.
It will be interesting to see if Ricketts will allow Hendry to increase payroll in 2010, or if Hendry is told to "hold the line" at $140M, or perhaps even to cut the payroll by maybe 5%, bringing it down to around $130M. (Because of the guaranteed contracts, it would be very difficult to cut more than 5%).
I think it's likely that the Cubs will non-tender two players eligible for salary arbitration (Neal Cotts and Jeff Baker) on 12-12-2009, but that would only save the Cubs about $2M in 2010 payroll, bringing the projected grand total down to about $131M.
There are presently 38 players on the Cubs MLB Reserve List (40-man roster), but the two open slots will probably be filled before the end of the regular season, even if the Cubs make no trades in the meantime.
When MLB Active Lists expand from 25 to 40 players on September 1st, the Cubs will almost certainly add a third catcher to their Active List (they always do). As of right now, I would expect that catcher to be Chris Robinson, presently assigned to AAA Iowa. In fact, Robinson could get added to the 25-man roster (and 40-man roster) as early as tomorrow if the Cubs opt to place Geovany Soto on the 15-day DL with an oblique strain.
I also would expect the Cubs to add at least one more lefty to the bullpen, possibly as soon as right after the All-Star break, or at least no later than September 1st. LHP Jason Waddell has been on the 15-day DL with some secret illness or medical condition (he was activated from the DL and sent to Iowa today, however), so as of right now, I would think the second lefty added to the roster will probably be veteran Casey Fossum, who was signed last week and assigned to AAA Iowa.
The addition of a Chris Robinson or a Casey Fossum to the roster will change this a bit (for example, Fossum is eligible to be an Article XX MLB free-agent if he's on an MLB roster at the end of the 2009 season), but AS THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW, here is how the Cubs roster & payroll look post-2009 into Spring Training 2010...
ELIGIBLE TO BE ARTICLE XX-B MLB FREE-AGENT POST-2009:
Chad Fox, RHP
Kevin Gregg, RHP (likely Type "A" FA)
Reed Johnson, OF (likely Type "B" FA)
Rich Harden, RHP (likely Type "A" FA)
NOTE: MLB players eligible to be free-agents under Article XX of the CBA must file for free-agency during the “Free-Agency Filing Period” (first 15 days after conclusion of the World Series).
During the 15-day “Free-Agency Filing Period,” MLB clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own free-agents, although the other 29 MLB clubs can talk to the player about everything except money (they can discuss the benefits of playing in a particular city, how the player will be used, where the player will bat in the lineup or whether a pitcher will start or relieve, length of contract, no-trade rights, etc). Clubs then must decide by December 1st whether to offer salary arbitration to their own free-agents, and if they do offer salary arbitration, the player has until December 7th to accept or decline the offer.
If the club does offer salary arbitration to the free-agent and if the player is rated as a Type “A” or Type “B” free-agent by the Elias Sports Bureau, the player’s former club would receive one or two compensation draft picks in the next June’s Rule 4 Draft if the player signs with another club (two picks if the player is rated Type “A” and one pick if the player is rated Type “B”).
If the player’s former club does not offer salary arbitration on 12/1, the club can continue to negotiate with the player, but the club would not receive a compensation draft pick (or picks) if the player signs with another club.
ELIGIBLE TO BE RULE 55 MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT POST-2009:
Austin Bibens-Dirkx, RHP
Robinson Chirinos, C-INF
Matt Craig, 1B-3B
Doug Deeds, OF-1B
Jason Dubois, OF
Casey Fossum, LHP
John-Ford Griffin, OF
Mark Johnson, C
Vince Perkins, RHP
Jose Pina, RHP
Luis Rivas, INF
Joe Simokaitis, RHP
Brad Snyder, OF
Nate Spears, INF
So Taguchi, OF
NOTE: Clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own minor league free-agents until the end of the MLB Free-Agency Filing Period.
If a minor league player eligible to be a Rule 55 FA is added to his club’s 40-man roster no later than the fourth business day following the conclusion of the World Series, the player is not eligible to be a Rule 55 minor league FA . (Both Casey Fossum and Luis Rivas are also eligible to be MLB Article XX free-agents if they are on an MLB 40-man roster at the end of the 2009 season. so adding either to the 40-man roster would not preclude them from becoming free-agents post-2009).
Also, any minor league FA who signs (or re-signs) with the Cubs prior to 12-10-2009 would be eligible for selection in the 2009 Rule 5 Draft.
ELIGIBLE FOR DECEMBER 2009 RULE 5 DRAFT:
+ Player can be Rule 55 minor league free-agent post-2010
Francisco Acosta, RHP
+ James Adduci, OF
+ Todd Blackford, RHP
Alberto Cabrera, RHP
Matt Camp, IF-OF
+ Russ Canzler, 1B
Marco Carrillo, RHP
Julio Castillo, RHP
Welington Castillo, C
Steve Clevenger, C-1B
Tyler Colvin, OF
Rafael Dolis, RHP
Arturo Florentino, RHP
John Gaub, LHP
Robert Hernandez, RHP
Dylan Johnston, RHP (ex-OF)
Blake Lalli, C-1B
Josh Lansford, RHP (ex-3B)
Alessandro Maestri, RHP
+ J. R. Mathes, LHP
+ Mario Mercedes, C
Matt Matulia, INF
+ Jonathan Mota, IF-OF
Billy Muldowney, RHP
Jake Muyco, RHP
Dionis Nunez, RHP
Jeremy Papelbon, LHP
Blake Parker, RHP
Andres Quezada, RHP (ex-OF)
+ Mark Reed, C
Gregory Reinhard, RHP
Chris Robinson, C
Jayson Ruhlman, LHP
Tomas Sanchez, RHP
Miguel Sierra, RHP
Alvaro Sosa, C
NOTE: If a player on this list is added to an MLB 40-man roster by 11/20/09, the player is not eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft.
SIGNED FOR 2010:
+ Player has NO TRADE rights
+ Alfonso Soriano - $18M
+ Carlos Zambrano - $17.875M
+ Aramis Ramirez - $15.75M
+ Kosuke Fukudome - $13M
+ Derrek Lee - $13M (FA post-2010)
+ Ted Lilly - $12M (FA post-2010)
+ Ryan Dempster - $12.5M
Milton Bradley - $11M (includes second $2M signing bonus payment)
Aaron Miles - $2.7M (FA post-2010)
+ Jeff Samardzija - $2.5M (no minor league “split”)
2010 TOTAL: $116.325M
PROJECTED ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY ARBITRATION POST-2009:
Jeff Baker (auto qualifies for arbitration 8-15-09)
Mike Fontenot (will probably qualify for arbitration as a “Super Two”)
Koyie Hill (auto qualifies for arbitration 9-17-09)
PROJECTED SUB-TOTAL: $13M
PROJECTED AUTO-RENEWAL (PRE-ARBITRATION) POST-2009:
NOTE: 2010 MLB minimum salary will be $400K with a $65K minimum minor league “split salary” ($32.5K minimum “minor league split” for players with no MLB ST who are on 40-man roster for the first time). Also, a minor league split salary for an “auto-renewal” player must be at least 60% of what the player was actually paid in salary during the previous season.
Mike Fontenot (will probably qualify for arbitration as a “Super Two”)
PROJECTED ESTIMATED SUB-TOTAL: $3.5M (includes estimated $1M in minor league split salaries for players on Optional Assignment)
CUBS ESTIMATED PROJECTED TOTAL MLB PAYROLL – OPENING DAY 2010: $133M
MINOR LEAGUE OPTION STATUS (SPRING TRAINING 2010):
Players who have accrued at least five years of MLB Service Time can decline an Optional Assignment to the minors, even if they have options left. The following players will have accrued less than five years of MLB Service Time post-2009. And player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time or who hase been outrighted to the minors previously in his career can decline an outright assignment and opt for free-agency instead
NOTE: Mike Fontenot, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, and Ryan Theriot would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before they can be optioned to the minors.
NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2010:
Jeff Baker (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Andres Blanco (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Neal Cotts (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Angel Guzman (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Koyie Hill (also can decline Outright Assignment)
ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION LEFT in 2010:
Mike Fontenot (can decline Outright Assignment)
Sean Marshall (can decline Outright Assignment)
Carlos Marmol (can decline Outright Assignment)
Jeff Samardzija (see NOTE – also can decline Trade or Outright Assignment)
Randy Wells (can decline Outright Assignment)
NOTE: Jeff Samardzija will have one option left because he is eligible for a 4th minor league option, as long as it is used prior to completing five “full seasons.”
TWO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2010:
Ryan Theriot (can decline Outright Assignment)
THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2010:
Kosuke Fukudome (can decline Trade or Outright Assignment, and probably has the right to decline an Optional Assignment, too)
Jason Waddell (or will have two minor league options left in 2010 if he is optioned to minors for at least 20 days in 2009)
CUBS PROJECTED 2010 POST-SEASON RESERVE LIST (40-MAN ROSTER):
* bats or throws left
# bats both
* Neal Cotts (likely 12/12 non-tender)
* Ted Lilly
* Sean Marshall
* Jason Waddell (likely will get outrighted to minors post-2009)
# Koyie Hill
Jeff Baker (likely 12/12 non-tender)
# Andres Blanco
* Mike Fontenot
* Micah Hoffpauir
# Aaron Miles
# Bobby Scales
# Milton Bradley
* Kosuke Fukudome
* Sam Fuld
POST-2009 MLB ARTICLE XX FREE-AGENTS (4):
Chad Fox, P
Kevin Gregg, P
Rich Harden, P
Reed Johnson, OF
TOP CANDIDATES FOR 40-MAN ROSTER POST-2009
NOTE: Probably no more than six will be added...
Welington Castillo, C
* Steve Clevenger, C-1B
* Tyler Colvin, OF
* John Gaub, P
Blake Parker, P
* J. R. Mathes, P
Gregory Reinhard, P
Chris Robinson, C
My guy Addy
oh, another a.russell HR...whatever.
Dylan Cease throwing gas tonight for the Emeralds. In first three innings, has hit 100 mph six times, averaging 98 mph
Can I get a gif of Joe West's jowls waving as he chews gum?
/Asking for a friend
my gawd...that castillo-to-bryant pickoff was a thing of beauty. the knock on him in the minors being slow out of the crouch is looking less like a thing.
bless your heart. *pinches cheeks*
real shame I missed this week's episode of The Crunch Reporter.
It's highly unusual.
It does matter a little.
It matters much less than you think.
four winds field is awesome. it's crazy how minor league parks have "grown up" since the 80s/90s and that park was one of the late-80s models that showed a low-capacity ballpark could look like you're at something other than a highschool baseball game.
On another topic....I returned to South Bend last night for the 2nd time this season (still haven't tried either the deep-fried mac & cheese sandwich nor "The Porknado", as the drive home is over an hour and that could get ugly), and was pleasantly surprised to find D. Underwood pitching in a rehab start. He looked good -- although, to be fair, these are low-A hitters -- fastball consistently at 94-95 (if the SB scoreboard is to be believed -- several pitches were clocked in the 30s...) and with good location.
he gains nothing, no advantage, no saving of resources, nothing...there is not a cost/benefit tradeoff...him letting the running game go on around him for others to control isn't gaining him an advantage elsewhere. it's putting him at a disadvantage even if it's not cashed in with a run.
And out of respect for the rest of TCR, I'm done on this. I'm sure I'm not the only one in the other camp, but time to let it go. (Until the next Lester start. I kid.)
He is putting himself at a disadvanage. But how much of one relative to the rest of his game? He's not Justin Germano -- he's inarguably one of the best SPs in baseball, issue or not. It would be more of thing to discuss ad nauseum if it constantly caused him to give up runs and lose games. But it doesn't.
shouting down my points about lester with "well, it didn't hurt" is like saying it doesn't matter if a guy starts out walking 3 guys every inning as long it's followed by a K and a double play.
it's like elevating ERA and wins to a high level while ignoring what it took to get there.
I'm asking how much it has hurt Lester and the Cubs this year. Do you have that answer?
I legitimately don't recall you answering that quesion, apart from the condescending silliness you just posted. So if you did answer specifically about the impact of Lester's issue, I'd like to re-read it. Thanks.
if runner = on base and pitcher = j.lester then lead = large
if lead = large then probability of extra base on following hit > average of mean
okay, enough of that silliness...
...you can read more on the thread i copy/pasted this from the last time you decided you needed to talk to me about me.