2009 Playoff Predictions

It's the first time in 2 years that the Cubs won't be influencing my bracket. The last time that happened was in 2006 and I had the A's winning it all and the Tigers and Cardinals losing in the first round. It's always important to remember when reading my entries that I'm an idiot. If you want, MLB is running a bracket challenge that you can enter, or throw your guesses in the comments. I haven't seen a neat and tidy place with official playoff rosters, so the ex-Cub factor below is a guess at this point and it's possible I missed a Cub connection.

Cardinals vs. Dodgers

The Dodgers started off hot for 2 months and then coasted the last 4 months and their best pitcher had a 5.21 ERA in September (Billingsley). That leaves Randy Wolf as their ace, walk-happy Clayton Kershaw, and now Vicente Padilla(chuckle) getting Game 3.ย  The Cardinals finished below .500 in Sept/Oct after a ridiculous August, but have the most feared hitter in the game, some decent protection around him for once and a solid bullpen. This series reminds me too much of the Cubs vs. Dodgers last year, except the Cards are the Dodgers this time.ย 

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Cards - 1(Mark DeRosa, Wellemeyer may still make roster, don't think Lohse counts), Dodgers - 1 (Juan Pierre, don't think Garland counts)

Secret Sauce: Dodgers

My Prediction: Cards in 3.

Rockies vs. Phillies

The Rockies were 72-41 since June and have a much better pitching staff than their Coors Field numbers suggest. Ubaldo Jimenez is as good as they get in my opinion, with Aaron Cook and Jason Hammel to follow. Poor Jason Marquis may not even get the Game 4 start, but that's probably best for the Rockies. Rockies were 2nd in the league in home runs and runs scored to the Phillies, so you'd expect some guys crossing the plate early and often, but you never know in 3-5 games what will happen. The Phillies would be wise to shelf Brad Lidge and hand over late innings to Ryan Madson and maybe Brett Myers. Cliff Lee has been beaten up since his first coupe of starts with the Phillies and Cole Hamels seems to be paying for all the innings he threw in their title run last year. I think the Phils will be tough to knock off as defending champs, but the Rockies will prevail. And when in doubt, bet against the ex-Cub factor.

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Rockies - 1(Marquis), Phillies - 4 (Paul Bako, Matt Stairs, Miguel Cairo, Scott Eyre)

Secret Sauce: Colorado

My Prediction: Rockies in 5

Red Sox vs. Angels

When the Angels beat the Red Sox in a playoff series, I'll pick them. Until that happens, I'm going with the Red Sox, plus I like their starters and bullpen more.

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Red Sox - 1(if Gathright makes postseason roster), Angels - 1 (Gary Matthews Jr.)

Secret Sauce: Boston

My Prediction: Red Sox in 4

Twins vs. Yankees

I could see the Twins taking Game 1 riding the wave of September and last night, but ultimately I can't get behind a team missing Justin Morneau and Kevin Slowey.ย  The Yanks have easily been the best team in baseball all year, still have Mariano Rivera closing and I think Burnett, Sabathia and Petitte along with a far superior offense than any other team should carry them through the playoffs.

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Twins- 2(Brendan Harris, Ron Mahay), Yankees - 3 (Chad Gaudin, Jose Molina, Jerry Hairston Jr....Eric Hinske doesn't count I believe)

Secret Sauce: Yankees

My Prediction: Yankees in 3

LCS

Cardinals over Rockies in 6, Yankees over Red Sox in 5

Secret Sauce: Rockies and Yankees

World Series

Yankees over Cardinals in 6

Secret Sauce: Yankees

Comments

Cards in 4
Phils in 5
RSox in 4
Yanks in 3

Cards in 7
RSox in 6

RSox in 6

Edit: It's also worth noting that the Yankees and Red Sox are facing off not just for this year but for the title of team of the decade. Whoever has the better October can probably rightfully claim that title. If both were to bow out in the first round, I'd give the slight edge to Boston for the titles.

NYY vs. BOS payroll

* 2009: $201,449,189 * 2009: $121,745,999
* 2008: $209,081,577 * 2008: $133,390,035
* 2007: $189,639,045 * 2007: $143,026,214
* 2006: $194,663,079 * 2006: $120,099,824
* 2005: $208,306,817 * 2005: $123,505,125
* 2004: $184,193,950 * 2004: $127,298,500
* 2003: $152,749,814 * 2003: $ 99,946,500
* 2002: $125,928,583 * 2002: $108,366,060
* 2001: $112,287,143 * 2001: $110,035,883
* 2000: $107,588,459 * 2000: $ 81,200,000

...and the Cubs...for the hell of it...

* 2009: $134,809,000
* 2008: $118,345,833
* 2007: $ 99,670,332
* 2006: $ 94,424,499
* 2005: $ 87,032,933
* 2004: $ 90,560,000
* 2003: $ 79,868,333
* 2002: $ 75,690,833
* 2001: $ 64,715,833
* 2000: $ 62,100,000

Relevance?

"Edit: It's also worth noting that the Yankees and Red Sox are facing off not just for this year but for the title of team of the decade."

just pointing out that 1 team in particular spends to win even though they both spend a lot...at most of the points through the decade we're talking 50/70-ish million bucks...enough to field an entire separate team at league average at some points. crazy stuff...

the cubs payroll i threw in for the hell of it...a comparison point that's related to something we're more familiar with.

Well, they do have more pennants than anyone else this decade to show for it. (Red Sox and Cardinals have a chance to tie.) Something to be said for that. Cubs spent a lot of money this decade and couldn't even buy one.

National League
Cards vs Dodgers -- Cards in 4
Rockies vs Phillies -- Phillies in 5

Cards vs Phillies -- Cards in 6

American League
Red Sox vs Angels -- Red Sox in 4
Twins vs Yankees -- Yankees in 4

Red Sox vs Yankees -- Yankees in 6

World Series
Cards vs Yankees -- Yankees in 6

Caveat -- Best-of-five series are a crap shoot.

National League
STL v LAD... LAD in 5
COL v PHI... PHI in 4

PHI in 7

American League
BOS v LAA... BOS in 4
MIN v NYY... NYY in 4

BOS in 6

World Series
PHI v BOS... BOS in 7

good start for me, Phils win Game 1...5-1.

Twins who beat the Angels over Cards who beat the Phillies.

I could be wrong.

6-2 in the 5th...

Recent comments

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  • Certainly might be the hottest pitcher right now, but he's behind a few pitchers by most objective full season standards.

    Rob G. 3 hours 9 min ago view
  • Well noted. You may also note that Lester's Career Playoff ERA is almost a full point lower, and he has a lower WHIP as well.

    Can't have everything, I guess.

    The E-Man 8 hours 15 min ago view
  • i'm happy enough with the Lester signing, but Scherzer has more than earned the extra money so far. If he was in the rotation instead of Lester, this team would feel practically bulletproof to me.

    Blaspheme maybe, but I think Scherzer is the best pitcher in the NL right now.

    John Beasley 9 hours 6 min ago view
  • Maddon was pimping Russell for Gold Glove honors recently as a manager should do...

    Here's some defensive numbers:

    Fangraphs

    1. Crawford (22.2)
    2. Seager (16.9)
    3. Cozart (14.2)
    4. Hechavarria (13.5)
    5. Russell (12.4)

    Baseball Reference

    1. B. Crawford 2.3
    2. Russell 2.0
    3. Hechavarria 1.7
    4. N. Ahmed 1.6
    5. Z. Cozart 1.5

    .....

    13.C. Seager 0.7

    Traditional stats

    Crawford

    .978 FP, 11 E, 333 A, 162 PO, 562 Chances, 4.27 RF, 72 DP Turned

    Russell

    Rob G. 9 hours 40 min ago view
  • Let me guess: Land of Contusion? Puppet Prez Reagan mistakenly blows the world up due to a bum thumb?

    Eric S 12 hours 35 min ago view
  • Favorite Genesis video

    https://youtu.be/QHmH1xQ2Pf4

    jacos 13 hours 4 min ago view
  • Twitterverse reporting that Almora's examination by a hand specialist went okay, it's still just a hand contusion.

    Eric S 13 hours 44 min ago view
  • Attaboy, Eloy! Jimenez named Midwest League MVP and Best Prospect.

    Gonzalez and Morrison also honored.

    VirginiaPhil 19 hours 4 min ago view
  • QuietMan 1 day 5 hours ago view
  • FYI, formatting of the web page is weird.

    JoePepitone 1 day 7 hours ago view
  • Now who can argue with that? I think we're all indebted to Gabby Johnson for clearly stating what needed to be said. I'm particularly glad that these lovely children were here today to hear that speech. Not only was it authentic frontier gibberish, it expressed a courage little seen in this day and age.

    Jackstraw 1 day 8 hours ago view
  • White Sox new stadium name w apropos logo

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/768...

    jacos 1 day 8 hours ago view
  • it was between that and "more like the CRUNCH REALLY EARLY AM REPORTER because i'm gonna c.r.e.am all over this place."

    i chose the classy route.

    crunch 1 day 8 hours ago view
  • Rob G. 1 day 8 hours ago view
  • that was the 2nd greatest piece of performance art since Donald Trump's campaign

    Rob G. 1 day 8 hours ago view
  • ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘€ good shit goเฑฆิ sHit๐Ÿ‘Œ thats โœ” some good๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘Œshit right๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘Œthere๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘Œ rightโœ”there โœ”โœ”if i do ฦฝaาฏ so my self ๐Ÿ’ฏ i say so ๐Ÿ’ฏ thats what im talking about right there right there (chorus: สณแถฆแตสฐแต— แต—สฐแต‰สณแต‰) mMMMMแŽทะœ๐Ÿ’ฏ ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘Œ ๐Ÿ‘ŒะO0ะžเฌ OOOOOะžเฌ เฌ Ooooแต’แต’แต’แต’แต’แต’แต’แต’แต’๐Ÿ‘Œ ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘Œ ๐Ÿ‘Œ ๐Ÿ’ฏ ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐ŸŽฉ๐Ÿ‘“๐ŸŽฉ๐Ÿ‘๐ŸŽฉ๐Ÿ‘“๐ŸŽฉ๐Ÿ‘๐ŸŽฉ euphoric logic !euphoric loGic๐Ÿ‘Œ thats โœ” some euphoric๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ’ป logic right๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ’ปthere๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘Œ Carl ๐Ÿ”ญ Sagan๐ŸŒŒ๐Ÿ’ซif i do ฦฝaาฏ so gentlemen ๐Ÿ’ฏ i say so ๐Ÿ’ฏ thats euPhoric logic right there Richard ๐Ÿ“’ Dawkins๐ŸŽฉ (chorus: socrates died for this shit) mMMMMแŽทะœ๐Ÿ’ฏ ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘“๐Ÿ‘ŒะO0ะžเฌ OOOOOะžเฌ เฌ Ooooแต’แต’แต’แต’แต’แต’แต’แต’แต’๐Ÿ‘Œ ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐ŸŽฉ ๐Ÿ‘Œ ๐Ÿ’ฏ ๐Ÿ‘Œ ๐Ÿ‘“๐ŸŽฉ๐ŸŽฉ๐ŸŽฉ ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘Œeuphoric logic slam me the FUCK uP ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘€ john cena JOhN cEna

    crunch 1 day 9 hours ago view