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Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
I'll go through a few more lower level free agents this week and pick it up to some possible bigger names next week. As we know, there's talk that if the Cubs can move Milton Bradley, they'd put Kosuke Fukudome back to right field and try and improve the outfield defense with a more true center fielder. And that's where Mike Cameron comes in...
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 22 | CHW | 28 | 44 | 38 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | .184 | .244 | .316 | .560 | 47 |
| 1996 | 23 | CHW | 11 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | .091 | .167 | .091 | .258 | -31 |
| 1997 | 24 | CHW | 116 | 446 | 379 | 63 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 23 | 2 | 55 | 105 | .259 | .356 | .433 | .789 | 109 |
| 1998 | 25 | CHW | 141 | 443 | 396 | 53 | 83 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 27 | 11 | 37 | 101 | .210 | .285 | .336 | .621 | 63 |
| 1999 | 26 | CIN | 146 | 636 | 542 | 93 | 139 | 34 | 9 | 21 | 66 | 38 | 12 | 80 | 145 | .256 | .357 | .469 | .825 | 105 |
| 2000 | 27 | SEA | 155 | 643 | 543 | 96 | 145 | 28 | 4 | 19 | 78 | 24 | 7 | 78 | 133 | .267 | .365 | .438 | .803 | 107 |
| 2001 | 28 | SEA | 150 | 633 | 540 | 99 | 144 | 30 | 5 | 25 | 110 | 34 | 5 | 69 | 155 | .267 | .353 | .480 | .832 | 123 |
| 2002 | 29 | SEA | 158 | 640 | 545 | 84 | 130 | 26 | 5 | 25 | 80 | 31 | 8 | 79 | 176 | .239 | .340 | .442 | .782 | 109 |
| 2003 | 30 | SEA | 147 | 612 | 534 | 74 | 135 | 31 | 5 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 70 | 137 | .253 | .344 | .431 | .774 | 108 |
| 2004 | 31 | NYM | 140 | 562 | 493 | 76 | 114 | 30 | 1 | 30 | 76 | 22 | 6 | 57 | 143 | .231 | .319 | .479 | .798 | 104 |
| 2005 | 32 | NYM | 76 | 343 | 308 | 47 | 84 | 23 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 29 | 85 | .273 | .342 | .477 | .819 | 114 |
| 2006 | 33 | SDP | 141 | 634 | 552 | 88 | 148 | 34 | 9 | 22 | 83 | 25 | 9 | 71 | 142 | .268 | .355 | .482 | .837 | 121 |
| 2007 | 34 | SDP | 151 | 651 | 571 | 88 | 138 | 33 | 6 | 21 | 78 | 18 | 5 | 67 | 160 | .242 | .328 | .431 | .759 | 103 |
| 2008 | 35 | MIL | 120 | 508 | 444 | 69 | 108 | 25 | 2 | 25 | 70 | 17 | 5 | 54 | 142 | .243 | .331 | .477 | .809 | 110 |
| 2009 | 36 | MIL | 149 | 628 | 544 | 78 | 136 | 32 | 3 | 24 | 70 | 7 | 3 | 75 | 156 | .250 | .342 | .452 | .795 | 108 |
| 15 Seasons | 1829 | 7435 | 6440 | 1013 | 1610 | 362 | 59 | 265 | 926 | 296 | 82 | 825 | 1798 | .250 | .340 | .448 | .788 | 106 | ||
| SEA (4 yrs) | 610 | 2528 | 2162 | 353 | 554 | 115 | 19 | 87 | 344 | 106 | 27 | 296 | 601 | .256 | .350 | .448 | .798 | 112 | ||
| CHW (4 yrs) | 296 | 945 | 824 | 121 | 189 | 36 | 8 | 23 | 100 | 50 | 14 | 96 | 224 | .229 | .315 | .376 | .691 | 82 | ||
| NYM (2 yrs) | 216 | 905 | 801 | 123 | 198 | 53 | 3 | 42 | 115 | 35 | 7 | 86 | 228 | .247 | .328 | .478 | .806 | 108 | ||
| SDP (2 yrs) | 292 | 1285 | 1123 | 176 | 286 | 67 | 15 | 43 | 161 | 43 | 14 | 138 | 302 | .255 | .341 | .456 | .797 | 112 | ||
| MIL (2 yrs) | 269 | 1136 | 988 | 147 | 244 | 57 | 5 | 49 | 140 | 24 | 8 | 129 | 298 | .247 | .337 | .464 | .801 | 109 | ||
| CIN (1 yr) | 146 | 636 | 542 | 93 | 139 | 34 | 9 | 21 | 66 | 38 | 12 | 80 | 145 | .256 | .357 | .469 | .825 | 105 | ||
| AL (8 yrs) | 906 | 3473 | 2986 | 474 | 743 | 151 | 27 | 110 | 444 | 156 | 41 | 392 | 825 | .249 | .341 | .428 | .769 | 104 | ||
| NL (7 yrs) | 923 | 3962 | 3454 | 539 | 867 | 211 | 32 | 155 | 482 | 140 | 41 | 433 | 973 | .251 | .340 | .465 | .805 | 109 | ||
The offensive numbers are pretty generic, but combined with his defense, he's definitely a plus for any team (anywhere from 2 to 4 Wins Above Replacement according to Fangraphs). UZR has him well above replacement level defensively the last couple of years and for his career and BP agrees with a career 106 Rate2 number. The Fan's Scouting Report makes it the triple crown of defensive road marks along with 3 career Gold Gloves to make me feel confident that he still can patrol center field with the best of them.
Now you know with Cameron's ability to hit 20 HR's or more, Lou is gonna want to use him in the middle of the order to drive in runs, so let's see how he does in that area. I like to look deeper than just the standard RBI counting stat and see what kind of opportunties Cameron has had and thankfully BP neatly keeps track of this. Cameron's OBI% (Other Batters Driven In) since 2006:
10.7% - 2009, 16.5% in 2008, 14.7% in 2007, 15.8% in 2006
Well 2009 was pretty ugly there for Cameron - Milton Bradley ugly - but he seems to be around the league average(which is about 15%) or better for the most part which I honestly expected to be a little worse with all his K's. It's not something you can put a guarantee on, but let's say he shows a tendency to get the job done.
Still at age 37, I don't think the Cubs should really enterain much more than a 1-yr offer here and hope you get a Bobby Abreu-special that falls in your lap in March for $5-$7M. Considering Cameron's sensitive (as he should be) to some of the bleacher taunting, I don't see this being a match for the Cubs or Cameron.
Comments
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
I disagree. Given that there will be just a scant few million available for free agents; given that the team seems insistent on acquiring hitting opposed to pitching, and that hitting just be able to play 2B or CF; given his strong defense; given his power threat; with a contract likely not to exceed $8M and perhaps less than that due to his age and a lot of OFs on the market, I'm not sure I like any hitting free agent as a better fit for this team.
The biggest downside - Cameron in the middle of the Cubs lineup is like the single longest stretch that an opposing manager could use a ROOGY.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
fine, $8M....it would be going beyond a 1-yr deal that would give me reason to pause and him and Soriano back-to-back in the lineup would probably set the record for men left on base.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
I was simply presuming his deal would be one year. Obviously anything longer than that is insane.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
Do not pay Mike Cameron $8 million in his age 37 year as his defense declines. We'd be better off re-signing Johnson and spending the extra money on Grabow and or the like. I'd rather offer arbitration to free agents who can bring back draft picks than sign Cameron. Pick up a center fielder in the spring if necessary.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
What is the statitical and scouting consensus on Kosuke as a CF? Does he absolutely need to be replaced, or is this a "nice to have?"
My casual observations from last year is that I thought he was solid but unspectacular. Didn't make many highlights, plus or minus. He seemed to play a good CF to me.
His offensive production looks better as a CF, than a RF, where you expect more power.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
solid sure, BP says he was quite good, UZR thinks he's wasn't....
imo he doesn't quite have the range you want out of a center fielder, especially if he has to cover for less rangy LF and RF. Keeping him in CF wouldn't bother me the least, just depends what happens in RF.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
"His offensive production looks better as a CF."
Except for stolen bases, which is probably the main reason the Cubs don't like him in center.
The top three base stealers in the NL play center--Bourn (61), Morgan (42) and Kemp (34). Fifth you have Pierre (30), who played center before he joined the same team as Kemp. Sixth is Dexter Fowler (27). Eleven and twelve are Taveras (25) and Victorino (25). In fifteenth place is McCutcheon with 22. McLouth had 19 SBs with 6 CS's.
Beltran missed half the season but he is certainly a base stealer.
Chris Young (11) used to steal bases. With an OBP of .311 in 2009, he didn't have many opportunities.
Center fielders who don't run much/well:
Cameron (7), Fukudome (6), Ross (5), Rasmus (3).
Fukudome is probably the worst because he had 10 caught-stealings. This would all be less noticeable in right field. Of course, he has other defects that are more glaring in right.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
Recall him misreading a few hit over his head, but hit in front of him, he plays those pretty well, maybe even above average. I would tend to agree with you that Fuku's CF defense is passable.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
Considering Cameron's over-achievement in '09 (especially earlier in the year), I figure he'll probably be overpaid in 2010. Good enough reason to avoid him, but I do like his defensive game and wouldn't be heart-broken if the Cubs got him. When did we last have a center fielder who could belt 15+ homers? I'd be uneasy with $8 mil per, though.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
When did we last have a center fielder who could belt 15+ homers?
2008, Jim Edmonds.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
is he available?
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
he wandered into the STL booth last year...family in tow.
he was VERY nice letting joe buck and crew keep him for 1 and 1/2 innings while his wife and kids milled about.
long story short...he is VERY retired and happy about it. he did recieve offers last year and some were nice, but ultimately he's happy being away from it all according to that impromptu interview.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
Plus the fact that average center field play is about 4 years past him...
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
Please no to Cameron. The Cubs need to get younger, faster and more athletic. My suggestion is to try to trade for someone with a bigger upside like Granderson or Upton. If we had Granderson, then I wouldn't mind having Cameron since Granderson doesn't hit lefties very well.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
A Granderson/Cameron platoon? Sounds nice. Maybe we could see if Evan Longoria is available, too.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
Just checked this on B-R, but his batting stats against the Cub's Central main rivals are just not very good career-wise. Blech. At 37, this seems like a guy who could be on the bench for a team like the Yankees, Phillies, etc. Not a "starter" on a team that has Championship goals. Originally, I was thinking "Well, he always killed us..." But the stats say otherwise: .235 .322 .450 .772
Also, his "clutch" stats also are not very good as well.
It seems that RJ could do as well, and add in Fuld as the last guy on the team.
It just is the Aaron Miles contract that makes me want to puke.
Rangers and Bradley
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/odds-ends-br...
seems like they may consider if Cubs pay most of his contract..
Club officials aren't expecting it to happen but it's something club officials are definitely talking about as they try to figure out a way to repair an offense that scored 115 less runs in 2009 than in 2008.
A month ago, it seemed impossible that the Rangers would bring back Bradley. Now there seems some hemming and hawing.
The Rangers know that the Cubs are eager to unload Bradley, who has two years and $20 million left on his contract. They know there is a possibility the Cubs could pick up a sizable portion of that contract, a must if the Rangers are going to get involved.
Re: Rangers and Bradley
AZ Phil: I assume the Cubs would ask for a decent prospect if they eat most of the money here. Any idea who would be a possible trading chip for Texas?
Re: Rangers and Bradley
Netfali Feliz, Derrek Holland & Elvis Andrus...all 3 or no deal.
Re: Rangers and Bradley
<....dial tone...>
Re: Rangers and Bradley
sorry about that Jon Daniels, I just figured I'd take a shot considering you once traded Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young away for Adam Eaton...
can I get Rangers 2009 program, Nolan Ryan autographed baseball and some middle infielder that looks good in a uniform but can't control the strike zone?
Re: Rangers and Bradley
oh shi...
Re: Rangers and Bradley
Rangers have no money spend.
Probably will be shedding contracts.
Re: Rangers and Bradley
If we get enough signed baseballs, we can sell them for cash, which can be used to sign another player, which is like making a trade.
Reliability of UZR
I've been using it a lot lately and was curious how legit it was...the statheads seem to back it.
here are 2 articles way over my head but they seem to conclude that it's as reliable as many offensive metrics we accept.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-2008-...
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/how...
wonder if anyone ran one on Rate2?
Re: Reliability of UZR
more than 50 chances in both years = r^2 of .15
more than 100 chances in both years = r^2 of .19
more than 150 chances in both years = r^2 of .24
more than 200 chances in both years = r^2 of .28
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
I've only taken a few semesters of stats, but those r^2 values seem absolutely dismal to me
The point that the rating becomes more consistent as attempts increase is a valid one, but I'd still argue that this article makes more of a case against UZR rather than for it
Re: Reliability of UZR
i know shit about stats classes but from reading those articles and staying at a Holiday Inn once, I think the point was that they aren't any weaker than a lot of well-accepted offensive metrics.
The one thing about a lot of these stats which people I think forget is that they aren't measuring true talent, rather performance. I think it's certainly possible to have a bad year defensively or one that looks bad defensively by the numbers like having a bad year offensively.
Re: Reliability of UZR
"The one thing about a lot of these stats which people I think forget is that they aren't measuring true talent, rather performance."
that's something a lot of people from "both" sides of looking at stats forget.
the "ryan theriot isn't a singles hitting little shit" points people where lambasting me with still weirds me out. you didn't need a single stat to project what he was most-likely to do based on what he did. plain as day no matter how many early slugging hits he ran into. singles...right field, heavy...that was (and for the most part still is) his game.
granted, most players aren't as easy to pigeonhole based on their performance OR stats, but theriot was a pretty easy one looking at how he plays the game.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
"...seems like they may consider if Cubs pay most of his contract.."
If that is correct - and who knows - the Cubs will not be paying "most" of Bradley's contract. It just ain't gonna happen. There will be better offers.
Re: Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Mike Cameron
Cameron, Bradley--how about some fresh air?
Castro 2 for 4 today with a run and two ribbies, Vitters a triple in 4 ABs, Gaub a 1-2-3 inning with 2 K's.
Castro hitting .423, Vitters .326.
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