TCR: No Good Will Come of This

When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

Who do you turn to?

BRUCE LEVINE

It's been really slow in the Cub universe of news. The baseball winter meetings were a horror show as far as this Cub fan could tell.

I'm incredibly news starved when you consider that I took running notes on BL's "Talking Baseball" show on ESPN-1000 radio. This week, his 2 hour baseball gab session with sidekick Jonathan Hood covered three main Cub topics: CF, 2B and the bullpen.

So here's an IV dose of baseball, Bruce Levine "Talking Baseball" style. What follows are my notes and occasional commentary from the Saturday post-Christmas program. After the jump...

BL's Opening statement: Cub fans may still be disappointed with Jim Hendry not adding to the team yet (no kidding!).

Matt Capps - Bruce Levine said he's not sure Hendry got beyond the basic parameters of a contract. BL couldn't confirm that  any formal contract offer was made. He thought Hendry needed to do a back loaded 2 year deal to get Capps. Ultimately, Capps took a one year deal as a closer thinking that he'll do even better in one year, either in his last year of arbitration eligibility or as again a non-tendered free agent. BL says Hendry would backload a one year deal if that were possible but BL says they don't allow that. We can expect Jim Hendry will recommend a backloaded a one year deal with Dunkin' Donuts though (insert your own gratuitous donut joke...ta da boom).

If the Cubs have about $8M to spend for 3 players (OF, 2B, BP), Hendry will need to do his backloading thing on whoever they sign (for any contract beyond one year).

Cubs needs: CF

Marlon Byrd is probably the fit, given the Jaramillo factor which will provide a comfort level for Byrd. Byrd is coming off of a career year at age 33. Where does hit in the order? Batting #5 thru #7. How much of a contractural commitment beyond one year is an issue.

The Cubs had no interest in Coco Crisp (now signed with A's) because of concerns about his health and that he's too far away from his peak year.

Why consider Scott Podsednik? Because he's a leadoff man. Adequate LF, not a good CF. Not good on the base paths with lots of gaffs and he gets picked off a lot. Theriot is better as a #2 hitter or 7,8 (but not a leadoff hitter).

Trade possibilities for CF - David DeJesus (KC).

Reed Johnson - Levine says that his agent is talking to Yankees.
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Cubs needs: 2B

Caller mentions consideration of a one year deal with Orlando Cabrera or Miguel Tejada at SS, moving Theriot to 2B while waiting for Starlin Castro to develop. Levine is a big Cabrera fan because he manages to go to the playoffs every year. Levine mentions he's got a rep of not being a team guy but can lead off because he takes pitches. Cabrera is coming off of a $7M deal so a lowball deal might make him disgruntled. BL recalled Cabrera's involvement in the three team 2004 trade that netted the Cubs Nomar Garciaparra (Cabrera went to Boston, who did eventually did win the World Series that season).

Bruce Levine discussed Ryan Theriot in detail, in the context of the Cubs evaluation of their own minor league system's talent. Theriot could have easily fallen through the system (I remember the failed experiment to turn him into a switch hitter). BL says nobody in the Cubs system projected him as a starting SS, but when Piniella saw Ceasar Izturis was not bringing anything, he gave him a shot. Theriot is a gutsy little guy. Coaches (Trammel and DeJesus) worked on his footwork to help some. Theriot has been a very good offensive player and an adequate SS but he'll never remind one of Omar Vizquel. I (don't we all) expect his ultimate destination is 2B, but who knows if that shift can happen as soon as this season.

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Zambrano in a trade?

Put those rumors to rest. Cubs weren't interesting in trading Z but like any team they should be listening to offers (to understand his market value). Z will not waive his NTC per his agent Barry Praver. Z has been living in Chicago this winter for the first time and working very hard with a personal trainer. Levine said that it was a mistake to use Z as a pinch hitter letting him run the bases and risking him to injury if you are wanting Z to pitch more than 30 games a season.
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Cubs needs: Bullpen

Caller asks about who is next on their reliever acquisition radar. Cubs have extreme interest in Kiko Calero. Makes me wonder what he was thinking when he unloaded Michael Wuertz for Billy Goat Beanes (see the above comments on evaluating your own talent). At least we've gotten rid of Aaron Heilman and all the other mistakes named Aaron from the 2008 offseason.

The Cubs have talked to Jose Contreras agent considering him as a starter/swingman.

Caller asks about the using the upcoming minor talent for the bullpen. BL says Esmalin Caridad will get a shot in the pen and Cubs are expecting Samardzija to be a starter (at some point).
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Bruce Levine's Cubs top 10 of the Decade: 1. ARam, 2. Zambrano, 3. DLee, 4. Kerry Wood, 5. Dempster, 6.  Sosa, 7. Moises Alou, 8. Theriot, 9. Prior, 10. DeRosa

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I'm going back to my cave to hibernate.

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#1 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

http://masnsports.com/2009/12/as-the-market-p...

Oriole writer, "As the market plays out"

I wonder what the impact on Carlos Marmol would be if the Cubs signed Jose Valverde (since his market has dried up).

#2 Contemplating Valverde to Cubs

It crossed my mind a week or so ago. I assume the impact would be that Marmol would be traded for a CF or something else that can be swapped for a CF. Fowler? Cody Ross? Or someone like that.

If Valverde's asking price eventually falls to something reasonable, Hendry would not be doing his due diligence without discovering what is Marmol's trade value.

If I can have one or the other on this team, I think I'd take Valverde and see what Marmol can fetch in a trade. There's enough teams willing to look past his '09 BB/9 and see his stuff and his K/9 and possibly overpay. I'm not saying Marmol can't bounce back and look in '10 like he looked in '08. But Valverde sure looks like the safer bet today, and even if Marmol does rebound, he won't stay cheap for very long.

Using his money to sign Valverde and potentially making Marmol available would give Hendry a lot of options on how to improve the rest of the team.

#3 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

The reason that Valverde's price is dropping is that there is curretnly no market for closers. Therefore, it would seem that signing Valverde would further impact the market and make it very difficult to ascertain Marmol's true value.

#6 Marmol

Luckily there are plenty of teams looking for relief pitchers. Maybe they can convert Marmol to be one of those.

#4 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

im a big ross fan, but i dunno if you can count on his knees holding up to a full season in CF.

as concerned as people were about milton, ross has been a constant injury since his career began. both knees carry permanent lingering pain he has to deal with as long as his youth and health hold out.

he generates such a tremendous amount of power in his swing for a midget. he swings hard at anything thrown at him. btw, he lists at 5'11" on some sites...yeah f'n right.

#5 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

One more rhp reliever bites the dust although this one wasn't on Hendry's radar screen.

Homer Howry to the Snakes @ $2-3M on a one year deal, with an team option.

Home town discount as Howry's from Glendale, AZ.

They're cornering the market on the Ex-Cub factor with a Howry/Heilman combo.

http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/NickPie...

#7 Z PHing

"Levine said that it was a mistake to use Z as a pinch hitter letting him run the bases and risking him to injury if you are wanting Z to pitch more than 30 games a season."

It was utter stupidity by Lou. I can understand in the 13th inning when you've used your bench to use him as a PH, but to use your supposed $100 million ace as basically a regular PH just does not make much sense.

#8 Dempster #5

While BL's list is not the end all be all, it is pretty sad that Ryan Dempster made the top 5.

I think that could be a good indicator why the team has not won a playoff game in over 6 years.

#9 10 worst contracts in Baseball

from SI.com...

1. VWells 2. Soriano, then Zito, Silva, OPerez, Matthews, Lohse, Rowand, Pierre. Bradley is #10.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers...

#22 Re: 10 worst contracts in Baseball

soriano is overpaid, but unlike most of that list he's still productive...damn.

#10 Ringolsby

He likes the $9M coming the Cubs way in the Bradley deal. He didn't go as far as saying he liked Silva though. TR also comments on all the NL teams.
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The Cubs did the impossible, unloading outfielder Milton Bradley and actually coming out ahead.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Ringolsby-...

#23 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

coming out ahead?

bradley can at least do what he's paid to do in the field even if silva would be better to have a beer with.

#26 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

Yeah..he sure earned his money last season...

#43 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

At least the $9 million dollars will live up to expectations.

#44 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

awesome.

#45 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

I think thats why Tracy Ringolsby liked the Cubs side of the trade... Until he sees how poorly Hendry spends the $9M.

#46 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

touche

#47 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

well, 3m is going to paying the silva balance off.

cubs are paying 16m to give a MLB quality player to another team for a guy who's useless....and that team is now paying 15.5m a year for milton.

there are no winners in this, but one team has a MLB caliber player to show for it and the other has 3m a year payroll flexibility for the next 2 years.

#11 Considering the source...

Phil Rogers Whisper column. Say no more. I like the shoulder surgery part.
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The Cubs clearly aren't blown away by any of the center fielders on the free agent market, preferring to explore trades. One name to file away is Fernando Perez. Speedy, bright and the holder of a .375 minor league on-base percentage, the Rays switch hitter, 27 in April, would be an interesting gamble complicated because he is recovering from shoulder surgery.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-27-n...

FPerez - Baseball Cube:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/Fern...

#12 More Rogers silliness...Ellsbury rumor

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-27-n...

He ranks pitching staffs: 1-2 Yankees/Giants, Phils 3rd, Cards/Rockies tied 4th, Cubs/Mariners tied for 8th. WSux 12th, Angels 13th.

then this tidbit: If the Red Sox wind up with Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Cubs immediately would make a major effort to land Jacoby Ellsbury to fill their center field/leadoff hole, according to sources.

That scenario helps explain why the Cubs have been so patient in studying their options. The best way to do such a trade might be for GM Jim Hendry to facilitate a three-team deal that sends first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the Red Sox by packaging a group of prospects, possibly including one or two of their top ones, such as third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson.

#13 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

I like Ellsbury but Lee/Cashner or Vitters/Jackson would make that deal pretty tough.

#27 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

I'd do either of those if I'm the Cubs.

Astute drafting in June will replace either package in the system.

#16 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

including one or two of their top ones, such as third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson.

Anyone here send two of those guys for Ellsbury? I would say no thanks. I'd probably send one of them and maybe a guy like Watkins of Flaherty, but even that is a stretch to me. I'm not a big Ellsbury fan, though.

#17 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

Ellsbury is an old style ball player. He hits for average. He steals bases. He can definitely fit the mold of a leadoff man. But he has a career OPS+ of 96 and he was a defensive liability last year.

I wish we had just kept Felix Pie and batted him 8th.

#18 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

Me too, especially considering all we got was Heilman for him and Cedeno. That was a sell low mistake, I think. If we had room on the roster for Gathright, we had room for Pie. Whoops. Old news.

So are you saying that Ellsbury is valuable, but not worth a package of high value prospects?

#21 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

Charlie, you are right but here are more details(yuck, Gatheright). Pie and Cedeno were essentially turned into what we got from the DBacks (and Hank Williamson who is on the Iowa roster, and pitched 4 innings in September), left-handed pitching prospect Scott Maine and first base prospect Ryne White.

Pie trade: http://archives.chicagotribune.com/2009/jan/1...

Olson + Cedeno trade:
http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2009/01/cubs...

Heilman trade:
http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/st...

#28 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

True, in Trade Physics players and contracts never be created or destroyed only transmuted into other contracts and players.

Thanks for the reminder, Cubster. I forgot about Williamson. Is he any good? The DBacks guys seem pretty uninteresting, and of course the loss for the Cubs is Pie, not so much Cedeno (even if I really wanted him to be a success).

#29 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

williamson...88-90mph fastball, curve...control issues, but he can throw both for strikes most of the time.

future pen fodder if he can make the jump from AAA. he doesn't have MLB "stuff" but he might squeak in some service time or refine himself into a job.

#19 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

Chris Moore at Baseball Analysts has kind of debunked the myth that Jacoby Ellsbury is a defensive liability.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/12/...

#20 Re: When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt

For what ever reason, Ellsbury was an underwhelming presence in centerfield this season

                                            
Year     G Rtot Rtot/yr  Rtz Rtzrd Rtzhm Rof
2009   153 -9.3    -8.6 -4.3  -0.7  -3.6  -5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 12/27/2009.

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