2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs

Fangraphs has added the CHONE projections on their player pages along with the Bill James projections. The Hardball Times comes out with theirs in their pre-season annual and of course Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA should be out shortly. But I promised updates when I put up the Bill James projections, so here are the wOBA CHONE projections (league average is generally around the .330 mark, give or take a few points).



2009 wOBA

Bill James 2010 wOBA Projection

CHONE 2010 wOBA Projection
Derrek Lee
34 .412 .386 .371
Aramis Ramirez
Geovany Soto
27 .310 .362 .358
Micah Hoffpauir
.315 .350 .337
Kosuke Fukudome
33 .346 .349 .343
Marlon Byrd 32 .345 .335 .347
Jeff Baker
.338 .346 .325
Alfonso Soriano 34
.314 .346 .338
Mike Fontenot
.296 .334 .321
Ryan Theriot
Sam Fuld
.367 .317 .318
Tyler Colvin
24 .205 .316
Reed Johnson
.321 .312
Koyie Hill
Andres Blanco
.271 .285 .301

For the pitchers, here's their projected CHONE ERA and FIP (explanation of FIP here).


Age 2009 ERA

2009 FIP

2010 CHONE Projected ERA

2010 CHONE Projected FIP

Carlos Zambrano 29 3.77 3.61 4.28 4.08
Ted Lilly
34 3.10
Ryan Dempster
Randy Wells
Sean Marshall
Tom Gorzelanny
27 5.55
4.41 4.43
Jeff Samardzija
25 7.53
Carlos Marmol
27 3.41
3.34 3.48
John Grabow
31 3.36 4.20
Angel Guzman
2.95 4.44 3.89
Carlos Silva 30 8.60 5.97 5.05 4.67
Justin Berg 26 0.75 2.18 4.85 4.92
Esmailin Caridad 26 1.40 2.27 5.29 5.05
David Patton 26 6.83 5.37 5.36 5.08
Jeff Stevens 26 7.11 5.86 4.13 4.05

Here are the Bill James projections again for reference


Age 2009 ERA

2009 FIP

2010 James Projected ERA

2010 James Projected FIP

Carlos Zambrano 29 3.77 3.61 3.60 3.90
Ted Lilly
34 3.10
Ryan Dempster
Randy Wells
Sean Marshall
Tom Gorzelanny
27 5.55
4.11 4.01
Jeff Samardzija
25 7.53
Carlos Marmol
27 3.41
3.45 4.00
John Grabow
31 3.36 4.20
Angel Guzman
2.95 4.44 4.03
Carlos Silva 30 8.60 5.97 4.85 4.64
Esmailin Caridad 26 1.40 2.27 4.85 5.10

CHONE projections seem more conservative overall and are particularly unkind to the Cubs starting staff. Offensively, the Cubs would have 6 above average regulars with Theriot and Baker or Fontenot below .330. Then of course, they're just projections, no reason to take them too seriously. For 2009, the Cubs were runaway winners of the NL Central if you looked at them. But just for fun, the Cardinals regulars projected wOBA: Pujols (.431), Holliday (.389), Ludwick (.356), Rasmus (.343), Freese (.340), Schumaker(.335)/Lugo(.314), Molina (.329), Ryan (.310).


If those CHONE pitching projections are right, Marshall is our ace and we're fucked.

Interesting one for me is Fukudome - on one hand he's getting older, but on the other hand he's really only getting his 3rd year in - a time when it's not unheard of for a player to break out. He and Soriano are the guys I could see greatly outdoing their projections - though I wouldn't bet money on it.

yeah, i wouldn't worry about that too much.

marshall does his best work out of the pen and Z/dumpster/lilly all have better stuff. hell, wells has better stuff, imo.

Predicted too high:
Marshall, Marmol, Zambrano, Hoffpauir

Predicted too low:
Caridad, Lilly, Fuku, Soriano, and...

Andres Blanco, of course.

Boy a .338 for Sori suggests more of the same extreme expense for extreme underperformance. I really hope Soriano gets back to form and defies projections.


- everyone was wondering where these guys were gaining 25-30 pounds during the offseason of just muscle (specifically naming Sosa), but never saw anything explicit

- had a pre-game meeting and they said if McGwire hit it today, they would do nothing to celebrate, were beyond annoyed when Sosa came in to congratulate McGwire

- didn't say anything to Sosa about the incident because needed him down the stretch to make playoffs

- the more guys that come out and admit it, the better he looks

that's about it, got a good sense that clubhouse and particularly Trachsel weren't big fans of Sosa, yet making the playoffs in '98 was exciting, etc...

Steve Trachsel? Go away.

our pal CubbyBlue with a sweet animation



I lol'ed several times.

That's awesome. Nice work, CubbyBlue.

for anyone who cares about this...Conan decides to quit.


The article stated He said he would quit, "...if he has to follow Leno."

Not his has quit, or has decided to quit...

You left out the above 6 words which is his condition for quitting or not, it would seem.

HE ain't gonna walk from that much money unless...

NBC has already decided Leno is moving to 11:30, so he's quit, although he carefully worded it so that if they decide to change their minds again, he'd be happy to keep his time spot.

I'm 98% sure he still gets paid even if he doesn't do the midnight time period, as his contract said he gets the Tonight Show at 11:30. Any changes to that are on NBC, so he's not walking away from anything.

If he gets picked up by Fox and let's say they pay him $15M a year (he's getting I believe $20M a year now from NBC), NBC would only have to cover the difference.

So in effect, if NBC doesn't flip flop on this they will have to essentially release Conan outright? How's his screwball?

Seattle is reportedly already trying to trade Milton Bradley for Conan.

The question for NBC: Is Milton better suited for that midnight slot than he was for the 5-spot in the lineup?

The New York Times says Conan's people have spent all day negotiating a settlement with NBC that releases him from his contract.


looks like I was bit misinformed, there is no language the show had to start at 11:30, rather that it be The Tonight Show, but The Tonight Show has been at 11:30 for 60 years.

they'll let him out and give him a settlement I'm sure and he'll be on Fox in 6 months.

Can we get LA Phil's expert opinion on this contract mess? Does Conan have any options left? Will NBC offer him arbitration?

Personally, I think NBC is in a real tough position right now. They should have known when they signed this contract that it would end badly, and now they're going to have to eat a lot of money or take back something awful in return. Conan definitely still has some value, but based on past experience I'm guessing NBC will get pennies on the dollar in whatever deal they broker here. It's probably going to be something like Conan straight up to Fox for the syndication rights to "Herman's Head".*

so is Conan a switch hitter? Didn't I see a quote when Conan signed that contract, that NBC made the move because they wanted to get more left handed.

Conan is better than Leno any day. But Jimmy Fallon shouldn't have a job, so quitting so as not to bump Fallon is absurd, I think. Not that I watch any of them more than once a month or so. Nor do I purchase any of the products advertised during their programs. I am totally irrelevant.


some details on the Florida plan...

Seems like the FBI knew about the steriod use in baseball for a long time.


Next it's going to come out that they know about pot smoking at colleges all over the country!

That's right. College kids are smoking out of pots these days. Those crazy, ironic late teens.

i've read pamphlets about that...bad stuff, man...bad stuff

Rumor has it that some of them drink alcohol as well?

Yes, but they did not do beer bongs with Jose Conseco.


...the article is pretty good, too. the live costas interview last night was a joke.


The interview was faked. McGwire is actually one of those lizard-aliens masquerading as the British Royal Family. In one part, via slow motion, one can see McGwire suddenly devour a Guinea Pig.

He is a lizard-alien? That must explain his neck. I thought those were just stretch marks on his neck from ultra fast growth due to steroid use. I guess that's just where he hides his lizard neck parts, like that goofy one that runs on water all crazy like.

CCO has an update on the tuesday Bruce Levine espn blog chat...

stuff on Angel Guzman as trade bait (for Ryan Spillborghs?), Ben Sheets update, and the cubs picking up reliever Jeff Kennard from Cincy AAA. Even a mention of Jonny Gomes (Cubs don't have enough money for him?).

The Cubs like Jonny Gomes. Gomes' agent is looking for a good deal and the Cubs do not have the money.

The Cubs signed right-handed relief pitcher Jeff Kennard. Jeff Kennard was 3-1 in 40 games for Louisville (Reds Triple A) last season with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.


I dont know what kind of good deal Gomes is looking for but based off his career stats he is looking between Bradley and Byrd money from the Cubs.

The Cubs have really screwed the pooch in offering insane contracts to backup OFers. So any one halfway decent is looking to break the bank.

I would of signed Gomes before Byrd, because this team needs someone to crush lefties. Marlon Byrd sure isn't going to do it. And the NL central is loaded with lefties.

Gomes is a one-dimensional home run hitter with okay walk rates, terrible strike out rates and no ability to play center field or left or right for that matter...

he's a $1-$2M bench bat in the NL or a $4-5M DH bat for a small market AL team...of course Vlad just got $5M to DH, so no one is going to give it to Gomes

Hard to disagree with Phil Rogers' column today concerning McGwire but this one gem of a sentence did stand out -

"Like others in my profession, I knew something smelled bad. But reporters were handcuffed by the lack of information then available,"

That's right, Phil. No few in your profession of sports journalism would actually want to do the job of, you know, being a journalist.

As Woodward later said, "Bernstein and I knew something smelled bad, but we were handcuffed by the lack of information then available."

It's almost like a sarcastic swipe at blog writers, only Phil is too stupid to use sarcasm.

"My job is to report the news, not to make it up..."
---P Rogers

Are we going to have to go through metal detectors at games, seems to me some fans might think that through the years they MAY have, uhm, you know, uh, feel cheated just a bit.

I know if I was Sammy, I'd tell the world the I was the home run leader of all time since...oh, never mind.

Seriously, why go after Conan when Pee Wee Herman is still available and we know he is ambidextrous and can be had for a strip of aluminum.


My god... this NPR story on Mark McGwire on Talk of the Nation yesterday is completely brutal. They all but kiss his ass... he saved the game... it took a lot of courage to come clean... he said it didn't really help him hit home runs... everyone knew what was going on... jesus christ what the hell?

Complete and utter latte-sipping bullshit. It's not two-sided, it was self-serving for him to come clean, he cheated... no different than Barry Bonds. No difference whatsoever. And despite what we all think about these douchebags now, history will NOT look kindly on them.

That's NPR for you. I'm no conservative, but those listener call-in shows are too often shockingly inane and hosted by blubbering sycophants. And on a sports topic? Forget it. You'll get better analysis and insight from Cowherd.

NPR makes my brain bleed...then again, i don't like human interest stories about native Peruvian folk singers raising money to build internet cafes for endangered wall lizards.

they do have good news, but that news generally lasts all of 10-30 minutes every few hours.

The jokes about NPR are pretty well played out. I don't listen all that often, but there's a lot of great stuff: Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me, Sound Opinions...This American Life isn't everyone's cup of tea, but I enjoy it sometimes (after finding it really boring at first).

every NPR stations programs/buys/produces their own content anyway. some have stronger news or entertainment leanings than others.

How was it self-serving for McGwire to come clean about steroids? What did he gain?

He admitted to taking steroids and he didn't blame anyone else or throw anyone else under the bus. He took responsibility for his actions, apologized, and said he wished he had never taken steroids. He's now being vilified by bloggers, reporters and talk show hosts. I just don't see how he's better off today than he was a week ago.

he didn't come totally clean. he just admitted to using them.

he claimed he only took them for health/rehab reasons which is a lie and a half.

he claimed he wished he didn't play in the roids era while not taking responsibility for being the poster boy for it.

he acted like a victim of society in his bob costas interview rather that someone who knew what and why he was doing it.

Maybe my expectations were lower than most people, but I didn't expect McGwire to give the times and dates that he took PEDs. An admission of guilt was sufficient. I didn't need all the gory details.

As for lying, I don't know how you can know his motivations for taking PEDs. However, I can find it plausible that a guy who has been able to hit homeruns his whole life would believe that he didn't need PEDs to hit homeruns, he only needed them to get and stay healthy.

I can also understand his desire in hindsight to not have played in the steroids era. McGwire was a product of the era, not the creator. He was one of many who took steroids and other PEDs. As it turns out, he was one of the highest profile players to indulge, but I'm not sure how he could take responsibility for being the poster boy for the era.

Finally, I didn't get that he acted like a victim during the interview. He was upset and I'm sure having to come clean to his friends, family, teammates, coaches, and the media has been a difficult thing to do. But there was nothing he said or did that made me think he was playing the victim. In fact, just the opposite. He claimed responsibility for his actions and didn't try to blame anyone else.

the guy can be shown to have been using since 1989 and on/off well into the late 90s. there's a few who date it back further than that, but that's still in hear-say with no secondary source. he also admitted to trying HGH "once or twice" but didn't like it.

the guy seems like his motivation for using was to get big and hit better. it's easier for him to use that excuse if he started using in 93-95, honestly.

Cubs have shown interest in Kiko Calero

and that's your rumors for the day...

think the Naples press conference is happening as well, or may have already

...But have concerns about shoulder inflammation Calero suffered last year...


LHP's J.R. Mathes and James Russell

RHP's Andrew Cashner, Casey Coleman, Thomas Diamond, Jeff Kennard and Vince Perkins

Catchers Robinson Chirinos, Steve Clevenger, Blake Lalli and Chris Robinson.

Infielders Darwin Barney, Matt Camp, Starlin Castro, Bryan LaHair, Bobby Scales and Josh Vitters

Outfielders Brett Jackson and Brad Snyder.

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  • If Travis' back-to-back-to-back walks cost Hendricks the ERA title, that would really suck.

    billybucks 8 hours 20 min ago view
  • Edit: "A lifeless loss to a lousy Sox team."

    billybucks 9 hours 3 min ago view
  • This place is a real downer after a loss to the Sox.

    Charlie 9 hours 14 min ago view
  • I expect they will go 5-9 games above .500 the rest of the year. 96-98 wins will win the Division.

    They should have one more 2-3 week hot streak in them.

    However, several players are just "average" for the last month: Zobrist, Ross, Russell, Ceasar. Montero is terrible, plus he cannot throw anyone out. -WAR. Heyward is abysmal at the plate, but a plus in the OF. Still with RISP he has been terrible. KB has not been driving in runs as of late. But Apparently the team is still above average with RISP according to S Sahadev.

    The E-Man 9 hours 21 min ago view
  • I came to that realization tonight. I kept expecting them to play better, but now I realize they aren't going to. They are a .500 team now.
    - They have one reliable starting pitcher. Jake's magic is gone, and it doesn't look like it's coming back. Lester has been lousy recently. Lackey's ERA goes up every time he pitches.
    - Heyward has been dead weight all year. I can't remember a single series where he was a significant offensive contributor. Not one. Great defense, but but if he were hitting .270 with 10 HR and played average defense, the Cubs would be better off.

    billybucks 9 hours 24 min ago view
  • new rule...no one's allowed to throw k.bryant a changeup

    crunch 9 hours 35 min ago view
  • Team is .500 since early May and is playing like a .500 team. Lack of offense seems to be putting a lot of pressure on the pitchers...and they aren't handling it terribly well.

    .500 the rest of the way still may win the division though.

    blockhead25 9 hours 41 min ago view
  • ...i hate espn.

    nothing like settling into a cubs game to get a few minutes cutaway for an ortiz AB in the 6th inning of the det/bos game.

    oh, at least they're doing split screen now...i guess.

    crunch 9 hours 56 min ago view
  • I'm liking this rookie Nathan.

    CTSteve 9 hours 57 min ago view
  • Richard DFA'd. Meh...

    The E-Man 12 hours 48 min ago view
  • Throwbacks with fashionable cutouts would be a nice touch.

    Charlie 15 hours 21 min ago view
  • The next 2 games are nationally televised. I think we dominate tonight, hitting 3 HRs off Shields. Great night for KB to end HR drought facing HR prone pitcher in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league.

    chitownmvp01 15 hours 54 min ago view
  • If the ball didn't deflect off the pitcher's mound, the game wouldn't have ended. Montgomery did miss his location though, but if that same contact was made and went in any of direction, good chance of ground out if it doesn't get through.

    If it was 1 night later, Chapman would be out there and we probably would be going to extras.

    Also, If KB wasn't robbed of a HR, perhaps we would have won. We will never know. Nice play by Melky though.

    chitownmvp01 15 hours 55 min ago view
  • The comparison isn't Chapman replacing Rondon. It's Chapman replacing Richard (hopefully) in the pen. Chapman's better.

    billybucks 17 hours 52 min ago view
  • I'm with you, Rob. You pretty much summed up how I feel about it.

    JoePepitone 20 hours 12 min ago view
  • Been quite the roller-coaster the past two days -- both games, plus the Chapman kerfuffel. How about a couple of nice, comfortable wins before facing Sale? Cubs should definitely wear throwbacks for that game.

    billybucks 21 hours 8 min ago view