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2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Fangraphs has added the CHONE projections on their player pages along with the Bill James projections. The Hardball Times comes out with theirs in their pre-season annual and of course Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA should be out shortly. But I promised updates when I put up the Bill James projections, so here are the wOBA CHONE projections (league average is generally around the .330 mark, give or take a few points).
| Player |
Age |
2009 wOBA |
Bill James 2010 wOBA Projection |
CHONE 2010 wOBA Projection |
| Derrek Lee |
34 | .412 | .386 | .371 |
| Aramis Ramirez |
32 |
.392 |
.375 |
.373 |
| Geovany Soto |
27 | .310 | .362 | .358 |
| Micah Hoffpauir |
30 |
.315 | .350 | .337 |
| Kosuke Fukudome |
33 | .346 | .349 | .343 |
| Marlon Byrd | 32 | .345 | .335 | .347 |
| Jeff Baker |
29 |
.338 | .346 | .325 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 34 |
.314 | .346 | .338 |
| Mike Fontenot |
30 |
.296 | .334 | .321 |
| Ryan Theriot |
30 |
.318 |
.319 |
.324 |
| Sam Fuld |
28 |
.367 | .317 | .318 |
| Tyler Colvin |
24 | .205 | .316 |
.308 |
| Reed Johnson |
33 |
.321 | .312 |
.320 |
| Koyie Hill |
31 |
.279 |
.289 |
.287 |
| Andres Blanco |
26 |
.271 | .285 | .301 |
For the pitchers, here's their projected CHONE ERA and FIP (explanation of FIP here).
| Player |
Age | 2009 ERA |
2009 FIP |
2010 CHONE Projected ERA |
2010 CHONE Projected FIP |
| Carlos Zambrano | 29 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 4.28 | 4.08 |
| Ted Lilly |
34 | 3.10 |
3.65 |
4.21 |
4.10 |
| Ryan Dempster |
33 |
3.65 |
3.87 |
4.12 |
3.89 |
| Randy Wells |
27 |
3.05 |
3.88 |
4.53 |
4.27 |
| Sean Marshall |
27 |
4.32 |
4.19 |
3.97 |
3.88 |
| Tom Gorzelanny |
27 | 5.55 |
3.91 |
4.41 | 4.43 |
| Jeff Samardzija |
25 | 7.53 |
5.90 |
4.57 |
4.74 |
| Carlos Marmol |
27 | 3.41 |
4.06 |
3.34 | 3.48 |
| John Grabow |
31 | 3.36 | 4.20 |
4.29 |
4.46 |
| Angel Guzman |
28 |
2.95 | 4.44 | 3.89 |
3.91 |
| Carlos Silva | 30 | 8.60 | 5.97 | 5.05 | 4.67 |
| Justin Berg | 26 | 0.75 | 2.18 | 4.85 | 4.92 |
| Esmailin Caridad | 26 | 1.40 | 2.27 | 5.29 | 5.05 |
| David Patton | 26 | 6.83 | 5.37 | 5.36 | 5.08 |
| Jeff Stevens | 26 | 7.11 | 5.86 | 4.13 | 4.05 |
Here are the Bill James projections again for reference
| Player |
Age | 2009 ERA |
2009 FIP |
2010 James Projected ERA |
2010 James Projected FIP |
| Carlos Zambrano | 29 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Ted Lilly |
34 | 3.10 |
3.65 |
3.76 |
4.30 |
| Ryan Dempster |
33 |
3.65 |
3.87 |
3.83 |
3.92 |
| Randy Wells |
27 |
3.05 |
3.88 |
4.16 |
4.10 |
| Sean Marshall |
27 |
4.32 |
4.19 |
4.06 |
4.34 |
| Tom Gorzelanny |
27 | 5.55 |
3.91 |
4.11 | 4.01 |
| Jeff Samardzija |
25 | 7.53 |
5.90 |
5.44 |
5.47 |
| Carlos Marmol |
27 | 3.41 |
4.06 |
3.45 | 4.00 |
| John Grabow |
31 | 3.36 | 4.20 |
4.00 |
4.17 |
| Angel Guzman |
28 |
2.95 | 4.44 | 4.03 |
4.11 |
| Carlos Silva | 30 | 8.60 | 5.97 | 4.85 | 4.64 |
| Esmailin Caridad | 26 | 1.40 | 2.27 | 4.85 | 5.10 |
CHONE projections seem more conservative overall and are particularly unkind to the Cubs starting staff. Offensively, the Cubs would have 6 above average regulars with Theriot and Baker or Fontenot below .330. Then of course, they're just projections, no reason to take them too seriously. For 2009, the Cubs were runaway winners of the NL Central if you looked at them. But just for fun, the Cardinals regulars projected wOBA: Pujols (.431), Holliday (.389), Ludwick (.356), Rasmus (.343), Freese (.340), Schumaker(.335)/Lugo(.314), Molina (.329), Ryan (.310).
Comments
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
If those CHONE pitching projections are right, Marshall is our ace and we're fucked.
Interesting one for me is Fukudome - on one hand he's getting older, but on the other hand he's really only getting his 3rd year in - a time when it's not unheard of for a player to break out. He and Soriano are the guys I could see greatly outdoing their projections - though I wouldn't bet money on it.
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
yeah, i wouldn't worry about that too much.
marshall does his best work out of the pen and Z/dumpster/lilly all have better stuff. hell, wells has better stuff, imo.
Re:
Predicted too high:
Marshall, Marmol, Zambrano, Hoffpauir
Predicted too low:
Caridad, Lilly, Fuku, Soriano, and...
Andres Blanco, of course.
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Boy a .338 for Sori suggests more of the same extreme expense for extreme underperformance. I really hope Soriano gets back to form and defies projections.
Trachsel on XM radio this morning
highlights...
- everyone was wondering where these guys were gaining 25-30 pounds during the offseason of just muscle (specifically naming Sosa), but never saw anything explicit
- had a pre-game meeting and they said if McGwire hit it today, they would do nothing to celebrate, were beyond annoyed when Sosa came in to congratulate McGwire
- didn't say anything to Sosa about the incident because needed him down the stretch to make playoffs
- the more guys that come out and admit it, the better he looks
that's about it, got a good sense that clubhouse and particularly Trachsel weren't big fans of Sosa, yet making the playoffs in '98 was exciting, etc...
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Steve Trachsel? Go away.
McGwire's asterisk
our pal CubbyBlue with a sweet animation
http://www.cubby-blue.com/my_weblog/2010/01/t...
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
win.
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
I lol'ed several times.
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
That's awesome. Nice work, CubbyBlue.
about as off-topic as we can get
for anyone who cares about this...Conan decides to quit.
http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01...
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
The article stated He said he would quit, "...if he has to follow Leno."
Not his has quit, or has decided to quit...
You left out the above 6 words which is his condition for quitting or not, it would seem.
HE ain't gonna walk from that much money unless...
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
NBC has already decided Leno is moving to 11:30, so he's quit, although he carefully worded it so that if they decide to change their minds again, he'd be happy to keep his time spot.
I'm 98% sure he still gets paid even if he doesn't do the midnight time period, as his contract said he gets the Tonight Show at 11:30. Any changes to that are on NBC, so he's not walking away from anything.
If he gets picked up by Fox and let's say they pay him $15M a year (he's getting I believe $20M a year now from NBC), NBC would only have to cover the difference.
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
So in effect, if NBC doesn't flip flop on this they will have to essentially release Conan outright? How's his screwball?
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Seattle is reportedly already trying to trade Milton Bradley for Conan.
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
The question for NBC: Is Milton better suited for that midnight slot than he was for the 5-spot in the lineup?
Re:
The New York Times says Conan's people have spent all day negotiating a settlement with NBC that releases him from his contract.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/13/business/me...
Conan
looks like I was bit misinformed, there is no language the show had to start at 11:30, rather that it be The Tonight Show, but The Tonight Show has been at 11:30 for 60 years.
they'll let him out and give him a settlement I'm sure and he'll be on Fox in 6 months.
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Can we get LA Phil's expert opinion on this contract mess? Does Conan have any options left? Will NBC offer him arbitration?
Personally, I think NBC is in a real tough position right now. They should have known when they signed this contract that it would end badly, and now they're going to have to eat a lot of money or take back something awful in return. Conan definitely still has some value, but based on past experience I'm guessing NBC will get pennies on the dollar in whatever deal they broker here. It's probably going to be something like Conan straight up to Fox for the syndication rights to "Herman's Head".*
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
so is Conan a switch hitter? Didn't I see a quote when Conan signed that contract, that NBC made the move because they wanted to get more left handed.
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Conan is better than Leno any day. But Jimmy Fallon shouldn't have a job, so quitting so as not to bump Fallon is absurd, I think. Not that I watch any of them more than once a month or so. Nor do I purchase any of the products advertised during their programs. I am totally irrelevant.
More spring training....
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/01/11...
some details on the Florida plan...
FBI steriod probe
Seems like the FBI knew about the steriod use in baseball for a long time.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4...
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Next it's going to come out that they know about pot smoking at colleges all over the country!
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
That's right. College kids are smoking out of pots these days. Those crazy, ironic late teens.
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
i've read pamphlets about that...bad stuff, man...bad stuff
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Rumor has it that some of them drink alcohol as well?
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Yes, but they did not do beer bongs with Jose Conseco.
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
http://static.foxsports.com/content/fscom//im...
...the article is pretty good, too. the live costas interview last night was a joke.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/rosenthal-...
Re: 2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
The interview was faked. McGwire is actually one of those lizard-aliens masquerading as the British Royal Family. In one part, via slow motion, one can see McGwire suddenly devour a Guinea Pig.
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