The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

UPDATE: Heyman tweets that it's for $3.3M with $2M in incentives based on games played.


Tim Brown of Yahoo breaks the story that the Cubs have signed outfielder Xavier Nady on a one year deal...dollar amount yet to be determined (likely in the 3-4.5M range according to Levine). Out of the names mentioned so far - Jermaine Dye, Rocco Baldelli, and Johnny Gomes, Nady was probably my preference on the assumption that he's recovered fully from his second Tommy John Surgery. According to Tim Brown, the physical is later this week but Nady's been throwing regularly and without problems. Before we get into the player, let's talk about the injury. Dr. Hecht in the comments dropped this note about having multiple TJ surgeries yesterday.

The basic operation takes a tendon graft from the forearm from a small tendon called the palmaris longus.

On a second surgery they have to take a graft from somewhere else. Other sites are available (the other arm or a tendon from the calf (plantaris) but that means he's gonna have two limbs involved to recovery. I'm not sure why his graft failed but it's pretty unusual for this to happen (expecially when it's not a pitcher). This would make me a bit leary too (Chad Fox alert!) but my guess is he'll be OK.

New York Yankees Spring Training in Tampa

As for the player, Nady is best in right and left field, but has played 82 games at first base, 45 in center field and even 3 games at third base. Chances are he'll stick to right, left and occasionaly first base  and likely send Micah Hoffpauir to Triple A with Sam Fuld getting the roster spot as 5th outfielder and back-up center fielder although a poor showing in spring training or extremely strong one by Hoffpauir could change that.

Nady has a lifetime 108 OPS+ (.792), .342 woBA and is 31 years old. His walk rate of 5.8% per plate appearance is pretty poor and a 19.9% K rate isn't too great either. The projection systems on his Fangraphs page all peg him in the high 700 to low 800's in OPS. His main duty will be as platoon partner to Kosuke Fukudome and his 3-year splits are:



vs LHP: 278/358/454 812 in 227 AB's

vs RHP: 297/340/504 844 in 787 AB's

227 AB's isn't much to draw any firm conclusions upon, but it does appear that he's someone who you won't have to waste 2 players on in late-inning lineup juggling as he seems to handle righties just fine. His other main duty will be as pinch hitter where he's had all of 58 PA's for a 255/397/426 slash line. I assume if all goes right, he'd also be one of the candidates to DH in interleague games when that time comes.

Assuming Nady passes his physical and can make the throw from right field still, I think you have to like this signing. The Cubs aren't likely to get the player that tore it up for the Pittsburgh Pirates to start the 2008 season and ended with 25 HR's and 97 RBI's after being traded to the New York Yankess. But he's definitely shown enough with the bat that he should do more good than harm if he can handle not getting regular at-bats. And if something should happen to Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, Lee or even Ramirez I suppose, the Cubs will have a very solid replacement ready to step in on a regular basis.

Bonus News: Ben Sheets signs with the Oakland A's for one year/$8M and Cubs showing interest in Chan-Ho Park.

Comments

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

X-cellent move.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

I like the signing, until I see how much and how long.

I wonder if Colvin will get a shot to battle for the 5th outfielder job. I don't think spending a year an AAA is going to make him a legitimate corner outfielder with the bat.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

That's what came to mind right away, too, that Fuld and Colvin probably battle it out for the 5th OF spot.

I like the Nady move a lot, as long as he can stay healthy. But I wonder how much TJ surgery on your right elbow affects the hitting power of a right handed hitter short term. Does it take a full year to rebuild the strength, like a pitcher?

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

I think Colvin will be moved at this point.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

Colvin for a mediocre bullpen rental? Awesome.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

per Bruce Levine chat...

It's a one-year deal for somewhere between $3 million and $4.5 million. We'll know more when the doctors have seen Nady.

http://espn.go.com/chicago/chat/_/id/30510

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

I was just about to post that. $3 million is really the max I like this deal at. As I said yesterday, Hudson pushing Baker to the Fukudome platoon mate role makes more sense, assuming he could be signed for $5 million or so.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

on the topic of another Cub acquisiton from Levine chat...

I think the Cubs are out of money at this point. Any other deals would have to be trades.

...Jim Hendry will turn his attention to solidifying the bullpen. I've mentioned their interest in Luke Gregerson of the Padres and Jason Frasor of the Blue Jays. The Padres deal would seem to be more realistic at this point.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

coincidence that this happens just after we hear Sheets to A's?

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

Heyman is saying 1/10M for Sheets plus performance bonuses fwiw...

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

yow...nice base.

Re:

Slick gamble by the A's, though. If he stays healthy they can either deal him for a couple of decent prospects at the deadline or offer arbitration and get two picks when he walks. And pitching half his games with that huge outfield and foul territory, and a fleet of speedy go-get-em outfielders, his numbers could be very good.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

"Slick gamble" is one way of saying it. Another way would be "a risky way to spend $10 million dollars". He hasn't pitched for a year. Supposing he recovers somewhat and can actually pitch games, will he be effective? Better yet: can he stay healthy? He has a long history of not staying healthy.

I'm glad the Cubs passed on this one. I would have gave him 1 year, $3-4 mil, plus incentives.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

I'm with you, Ryno. As much as I like Sheets, $10 million seems crazy.

True, IF Sheets is pitching well the A's can potentially get back some prospects in a trade. It's also true that if he walks at the end of 2010, the A's can possibly get a couple of draft picks. However, what if he's ineffective? What if he gets injured? There's too much of a down side to this deal in my opinion.

I could somewhat understand a high risk/high reward deal like this from a team that can afford it, but it really surprises me that it is the A's that are taking the gamble.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

great, the A's can draft more millions-dollars slow, lumbering, no-hit guys who can manage 60-80 walks if they're lucky enough to make it out of AAA.

at least they can draft pitching...

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

The A's probably know it's a long shot for them to contend this year. They've got money to burn for once, and there's no other player out there that has Sheets' upside. If they're both good, they'll make a run with him. If he's good but they're not, they can trade him for great prospects. It's a calculated risk, but when you're the A's, you've gotta look for any edge you can get.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

Agreed. Nothing to lose for the A's. They'll chase Seattle and LA in their division, maybe TX. So even the wild card seems unlikely. Good trade opportunity come June or July. I'd be surprised if the A's actually pay the full 2010 salary.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

Nothing to lose for the A's

...except $10 million or about 1/7 of their 2010 payroll.

If Sheets can have a good year, then Oakland may get some prospects at the trade deadline. If he sucks or gets injured, they just crapped away $10 million.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

Crapping away millions can be said about any player on any team if they get hurt.

Or it can be a reference to Jim Hendry that also brings up disturbing images.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

Crapping away millions can be said about any player on any team if they get hurt

True, but $10 million per year is still an above average contract and Ben Sheets is an above average injury risk...

...not to mention that Oakland is a below average payroll team.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

A healthy Ben Sheets is worth roughly $15 to $25 million depending on your valuation system of choice.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

TRN -- I don't disagree, but is it smart for a team like Oakland with roughly a $70 million payroll to spend $10 million on a pitcher with a long track record of injuries?

IF Sheets stays healthy and IF he pitches well, Oakland might be able to get some prospects for him mid-season. But if he sucks and/or gets injured, Oakland just spent a huge chunk of their payroll on a hope and a prayer.

I don't think this would have been a particularly good signing for anyone, but it's especially bad for a lower payroll team like Oakland.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

A big part of the signing depends on whether or not you think Oakland can contend next year. I think that they can, and with Sheets at the head of their rotation it could be the second best in the AL. Their team as of right now looks at least as good as the '09 Mariners did at the start of the season, and they were able boost fan excitement and turn an inferior pitcher (Washburn) into prospects.

I am surprised the Mets didn't sign him though, as he seemed like a better fit there.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

Think of it this way.

Ted Lilly is scheduled to make 10 million this year, and he may or may not be healthy.

Pitchers are always a risk. I'd wager that Sheets pitches more innings in 2010 than Ted Lilly.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

Just to be clear, I understand that pitchers are always an injury risk, but this is different. This is paying a guy who has a long history of being fragile and who just missed an entire year $10 million. Would you be happy with Hendry if he signed Lilly for this year if he had missed all of last year? Actually, considering the difference in payrolls between the Cubs and A's, the Cubs would have to pay Lilly $20 million.

Re:

I understand the risk from the A's perspective. They have a young team with TONS of young talent.(especially pitching)

Sheets can front that staff and they can make a playoff run. If he stays healty the A's can offer arbitration and go year to year with Sheets from here on out.

The cubs should do the same thing with Ted Lilly if he returns healthy from his shoulder surgery.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

What's the bet? I am in.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

5 virtual dollars.

If TCR did a poll, this would be a good one to do. Neither guy will hit 200 innings. My guess would be Sheets in the 175 range and Lilly in the 130-150 range.

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

Sheets has hit that once in 5 seasons. I'd take those numbers and reverse them. Lilly-175, Sheets-130

Re: The Cubs Sign Their X-Factor

I doubt that they'll be able to get Type A compensation for him, since he didn't pitch in '09.

Return to Homepage

Syndicate content