Cubs' PECOTA Projections
Here are the weighted means from BP's PECOTA projection system in a few categories for the Cubs. PECOTA does try to project playing time, so cumulative stats like VORP and WARP are based off of that.
They have Fukudome listed as a center fielder, so I assume that would affect his VORP and WARP scores a bit. Otherwise here are the hitters sorted by EqA.
...and your pitchers sorted by VORP. I assume there's no setting for starting the season on the disabled list for Lilly.
Nothing to take too seriously, but PECOTA sure doesn't seem to like the Cubs much. I added 34.9 Wins above replacement and I think a team of replacement level players is around 47 wins. If I did that right (and it's very, very possible I did that wrong), I come up with about an 82 win team.
UPDATE: If the BP depth chart uses the same projections and math, they're even more pessimistic and have the Cubs at 77 wins. A team full of replacement level players according to BP math at one point would win 44 games, athough it's been adjusted a few times since originally calculated (thanks to "stevens" and "navigator" for the help in the comments).
UPDATE #2: Sobering thought...this is the lowest amount of wins predicted by PECOTA for the Cubs that dates back to 2003.
2010: 77 wins
2009: 92 wins (won 83 games), -9
2008: 89 wins (won 97 games), +8
2007: 85 wins (won 85 games), 0
2006: 85 wins (won 66 games), -19
2005: 89 wins (won 79 games), -10
2004: 92 wins (won 89 games), -3
2003: 83 wins (won 88 games), +5
Originally, the Cubs were down for 96 wins in 2009, but BP does adjust as the season approaches.
Did anybody see that Zobrist strikeout?
That was extremely disappointing.
Strangest win of the year, and one of the sweetest. Twice I thought it was easily in the bag, then after the first 2 hitters in the 9th I thought all was lost. Big game for Grimm, Strop & Rondon. But, man, those Cards can hit for power.
Very satisfying, gut-check win today. The beers on the trip back to Chicago are going to taste fantastic.
It's still very early but this game felt very important to me and probably knocked 2 years off my life. Seemed like every inning was big.
Yes then they moved him two spot then not so much, back batting 7th
This is the exact game that the Cubs would have lost in years past to the Cardinals.
Arrieta starting. Leads of 6-1 and 9-4. You don't expect to have such a sense of relief when they win.
At least the end result was worth the wait.
I guess he's better than what they've had. He started out like the Babe there.
Fair enough, but Castro isn't really very good.
I can just hear Pat Hughes chortling "typical Cubs-Cards game..."
As long as Maddon uses him against RH he is good. Against LH - not so much.
His recent HR's obviously have not been great pitches.
So, let's just say my personal confidence in the guy is not there yet.
not that I'm agreeing with E-Man in anyway here, but Warren's FIP and peripherals are not really good (5.20 FIP/5.19 BB/9/.128 BABIP), although his actual results are a lot better. Well until today...
Trade was also to make room for Zobrist and it'll be a few years before we can really judge it.
Eventually, the Maddon "play everyone everywhere" thing was going to create a problem.
This ump blows.