Cubs Prospect List-mania 2010

For the fourth year running I go through the various prospect lists. I'm trying to stick the more established ones and there are even more lists available at Wiklifield. Scout.com didn't seem to put out a Cubs list this year or has yet to and I'm not waiting any longer. Click on the image for the link to the original article.

5-Star Prospects
1. Josh Vitters
2. Starlin Castro
   
   4-Star Prospects
   
3. Hak-Ju Lee
4. Brett Jackson
   
   3-Star Prospects
   
5. Andrew Cashner
6. Jay Jackson
7. Chris Carpenter
8. Chris Archer
9. Kyler Burke
10. Ryan Flaherty
11. John Gaub

Four More: Chris Huseby, Logan Watkins, Dae-Eun Rhee, Darwin Barney

What They Say: While things didn't work out at the big-league level (cue broken record), the Cubs' 2009 season down on the farm was an unmitigated success, with far more steps forwards (many of them huge) than regressions, and a possible piece of thievery with finding Jackson at 31^st overall. The North Siders will move way up in this year's organizational rankings.

1. Starlin Castro, SS
2. Brett Jackson, OF
3. Josh Vitters, 3B
4. Andrew Cashner, RHP
5. Jay Jackson, RHP
6. Hak-Ju Lee, SS
7. Logan Watkins, 2B
8. Chris Carpenter, RHP
9. Ryan Flaherty, SS/2B/3B
10. D.J. LeMahieu, SS/2B

What They Say: Most of Chicago's best farmhands are at least a couple of years away from making an impact in the major leagues, so the Cubs may have to transition from trying to contend to trying to reload if they aren't able to quickly turn their fortunes around in 2010. That would mean more waiting for fans whose patience already has been stretched thin.

Rankings are preliminary and could have changed in the book that Sickels publishes.

1. Starlin Castro (B+)
2. Josh Vitters (B+)
3. Brett Jackson (B)
4. Jay Jackson (B)
5. Andrew Cashner (B)
6. Hak-Ju Lee (B)
7. Chris Carpenter (B-)
8. Kyler Burke (B-)
9. Ryan Flaherty (B-)
10. D.J. LeMahieu (C+)
11. Brooks Raley (C+)
12. Logan Watkins (C+)
13. Esmailin Caridad (C+)
14. Blake Parker (C+)
15. John Gaub (C+)
16. Matt Spencer (C+)
17. Dae-Eun Rhee (C+)
18. Casey Coleman (C+)
19. Tyler Colvin (C)
20. Jeff Beliveau (C)

OTHERS: (Grade C): James Adduci, OF; Jeff Antigua, LHP; Chris Archer, RHP; Darwin Barney, SS; Justin Bristow, RHP; David Cales, RHP; Welington Castillo, C; Rafael Dolis, RHP; Brandon Guyer, OF; Chris Huseby, RHP; Austin Kirk, LHP; Scott Maine, LHP; Trey McNutt, RHP; Mike Parisi, RHP; Chris Rusin, LHP; James Russell, LHP; Ryan Searle, RHP; Tony Thomas, 2B.

What They Say: The Cubs system has more depth than is commonly realized, particularly up the middle. Castro took a huge leap forward this year. He'll need some consolidation time, and I hope they are wise enough to give it to him, but at worst he should be a good major league regular and he could end up as a star. Brett Jackson also has star potential, but I still have some concerns about his strike zone judgment and want to see him at higher levels before completely buying into the maximum projections. Josh Vitters is a weird case; I posted his full comment in the Cubs player list thread on the blog. I don't want to be a fundamentalist about his low walk rate, but 12 walks for an entire season is pretty ridiculous. It helps that he doesn't strike out much, and because of his age I'm willing to be patient, no pun intended, for awhile longer. Guys like Lee, Flaherty, Watkins, and LeMahieu give them plenty of options up the middle to go along with Castro. Kyler Burke is the big sleeper in this system and I'm not sure why he doesn't get more attention.

Diamond Futures

You can see the method behind their rankings by visiting this link. They have a 300 page PDF prospect guide on all the teams available for $9.95 if you're interested. They gave me a complimentary copy and I thought the information and detail was top notch at the price.

1. Starlin Castro (A)
2. Josh Vitters (A)
3. Brett Jackson (A-)
4. Andrew Cashner (A-)
5. Hak-Ju Lee (B+)
6. Kyler Burke (B+)
7. Jay Jackson (B+)
8. Logan Watkins (B)
9. D.J. LeMahieu (B)
10. John Gaub (B)
11. Chris Archer (B-)
12. Dae-eun Rhee (B-)
13. Jeff Angtigua (B-)
14. Chris Carpenter (B-)
15. Rafael Dolis (B-)
16. Trey McNutt (B-)
17. Brooks Raley (B-)
18. Matt Spencer (B-)
19. Ryan Flaherty (B-)
20. Blake Parker (B-)

What They Say: We never know how things are going to come out when we start these rankings, but our biggest surprise has to be the Chicago Cubs coming in at #6. It’s not that the Cubs don’t have some talented players, it’sjust that they graduated five players to the Majors in 2009—from an already weak system, and if you had evaluated the team in early June their prospect hopes looked pretty dim. Then Starlin Castro puttogether one of the most ‘helium’ filled seasons in the Minors, Brett Jackson was drafted and surprised most everyone with his play, Andrew Cashner located his missing command, Kyler Burke finally had the breakout season everyone had been waiting for, John Gaub became one ofthe Minors’ best relief prospects and they had a huge haul of young prospects from the Pacific Rim. Suddenly it is like an entirely different organization. The strength of the organization lies in its depth, as only our top three organizations have a longer list of ‘C’ or higher prospects. There also is a good balance between high-ceiling and high-floor players. Additionally, likely no organization in baseball works the Pacific Rim harder than the Cubs, and it looks like they are about to reap some of the fruits of their efforts…but everything isn’t roses for the Cubs, as once you get past the top nine prospects, pitchers make up all but eight of the next twenty-five spots. Perhaps more importantly, few of the Cubs’ prospects will be ready to contribute before late 2011 or 2012, so it will likely be another couple of years before the impact of the rebounded farm system is felt at the Big League level.

1. Starlin Castro
2. Brett Jackson
3. Josh Vitters
4. Jay Jackson
5. Andrew Cashner
6. Hak-Ju Lee
7. Chris Carpenter
8. D.J. LeMahieu
9. Chris Archer
10. Jose Valdez

Arizona Phil's Top 15

1. Andrew Cashner
2. Jay Jackson
3. Starlin Castro
4. Josh Vitters
5. Welington Castillo
6. D.J. LeMahieu
7. Brett Jackson
8. Hak-Ju Lee
9. Chris Carpenter
10. Kyler Burke
11. Ryan Flaherty
12. Sam Fuld
13. Tyler Colvin
14. Darwin Barney
15. Brandon Guyer

And now for the always humorous list of 16 from yours truly (15 in years past). I generally like guys that actually have done something at AA or higher, but that's just a guideline and the Cubs don't have too many of those in their system at the moment. The age is what they'll be playing at during the 2010 season.

1. Starlin Castro (age 20)- The boy wonder is the hot topic of spring training and it doesn't appear like anything will slow his ascent to the majors. The Edgar Renteria comparisions seem about right to me, anything better than that will require a refined eye or development of 15-20 HR power. He looks like he'll find Wrigley in 2010 and be a solid regular at worse. At age soon-to-be 20, we still don't know if he's reached his peak skillset.

2. Andrew Cashner (age 23) - i don't think anyone but the Cubs think he'll ever make it as a starter, but I have hard time believing he won't be at least a major league closer some day down the road and a dominating one at that. Two plus pitches along with an occasional changeup and he appears to be finding better control. It seems like he'll find the Cubs roster in 2010 as well.

3. Josh Vitters (age 20) - He has the most upside of anyone in the organization in my not-so-humble opinion, but two years worth of injuries and you have to wonder if it's going to become a chronic thing. The walk rate is a bit worrisome, but not as much as the injuries so far. The fact that he probably won't see the majors until 2011 or 2012 puts him behind Castro and Cashner at the moment.

4. Jay Jackson (age 22)- He looks to have all the makings of a mid-rotation starter with the upside of a #2 if everything breaks correctly. I do fear a little Sean Gallagher in him, good control and an array of pitches, but not much of an out pitch. That can get you by in the minors, but the majors could provide problems. I'm shocked he didn't get an NRI this spring training.

5. Hak-Ju Lee (age 19) - He's a long way from Wrigley, but the reports that he could push the boy wonder to second base are pretty strong and an elite defensive shortstop would be a nice thing to have. He struck out a little too much for my tastes (16.4% K/PA), but did walk at over a 10% clip and with rave reviews about his speed, the leadoff spot seems natural. There's a ton of competition at shortstop in the system, so let's see how he handles the higher levels.

6. Tyler Colvin (age 24) - Colvin wouldn't have even been in thet top 16 until spring training and the reports that he bulked up 25 pounds over the offseason and is hitting moonshots in camp. He's gone from an afterthought/4th outfielder with questionable plate disclipline at best to potential everyday center fielder with 30 home run power. He is roadblocked at the moment with Soriano, Fukudome and Byrd, but with 3 option years left, there's no reason to rush him out of the system. It also wouldn't be too hard to trade Fukudome or Byrd after 2010 if Colvin can show something at the major league level at some point in 2010.

7. Chris Carpenter (age 24) - The backstory on Carpenter is a player drafted out of high school in the 7th round in 2004 by the Detroit Tigers that decided to go to Kent State (presumambly would have been drafted much higher if he didn't plan to go to college). He then blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery and another procedure to clean out scar tissue before the Cubs drafted him in the 3rd round in 2008. He went through 3 levels last year, but just 130.2 IP with an 8.1 K/9 rate to 3.6 BB/9 rate, so control is an issue. He does seem like a guy that could go through the system fast with a 92-95 mph fastball that can touch 97 and a good hard curveball. He's working on a changeup which would be the key to major league success as a starter.

8. Brett Jackson (age 21) - I'm not as high as most on Jackson quite yet. He was impressive with 7 home runs in Peoria last year (although just 1 in Boise in a similar number of plate appearances). It just seems a little flukey. He also struck out 25% of the time in his 128 PA's in Peoria. Small sample sizes of course, but as he goes up the ladder, he'll need to get that way down unless he's a 30 HR guy, which doesn't appear to be the case.

9. Esmailin Caridad (age 26) - A late bloomer that was signed by the Cubs out of the Japanese leagues. While he threw in the low 90's as a starter in the minors, he easily touches 95mph when relieving with a good slider. He could be a surprise main set-up man this year or even a desperation closer down the road.

10. Ryan Flaherty (age 23) - He probably doesnt' stand a chance at staying at shortstop with the Cubs, but he did pop 20 home runs last year in Peoria with a decent walk rate of just under 10% and a K rate at just above 18%. He's already started playing 2b and 3b and verstaility in the National League is of course a big plus. He seems to be a big student of the game including a series of videos on hitting technique on youtube.

11. Kyler Burke (age 22) - I'm pretty cautious on Burke as his breakout 2009 season was also his third go-around in the Midwest League. But he was a first round talent when drafted by the San Diego Padres and has a cannon out of right field. He had 61 extra-base hits and incredible improvement in his walk and strikeout rates, but you have to worry if pitchers were just afraid to pitch to him.

12. Logan Watkins (age 20) - Watkins was a 21st round pick in 2008 that received third round bonus money to keep him from Wichita State. I can't find confirmation, but he only had 318 PA's last year, so I assume there was an injury. He was an all-state QB and defensive back in high school and BA describes him as a gifted athelete. He's shown pretty solid plate disclipline so far with the ability to put the ball in play and has a strong enough arm that he could play 2b, 3b or the outfield along with shortstop. If he can find just a little power, he could rise higher among the Cubs crowded middle infield.

13. Welington Castillo (age 23) - This is mostly based off Arizona Phil's recommendations and observations, but he seems like he could be a plus defensive catcher with 15-20 HR power. On the other hand, he's struck out nearly 20% of the time in the minors without showing any desire to take a walk.

14. Sam Fuld (age 28) - I love Fuld's Tom Waddle-like style of defensive play, but he's likely going to kill himself at some point against an unforgiving outfield wall. He's shown pretty decent walk rates through the minors and puts the ball in play, but not enough power or speed that I could ever see him getting a regular job unless out of desperation. But a major league reserve isn't a terrible major league career either.

15. Blake Parker (age 25) - He's a converted catcher that will be going on his fourth year of pitching so I'm giving him a bit of a break. He did well as a closer in Iowa and has put up K rates north of 10 last season although way too walk happy (5 BB/9). He throws a low 90's sinker that can touch 95, picked up a changeup from Dae-Eun Rhee who has one of the best in the system and is working on his slider.

16. Chris Archer (age 21) - His strikeout rate of 9.8 K/9 in the Midwest League was great, but a 5.4 BB/9 rate is not so great. He keeps the ball in the park though, and right now has a low 90's fastball, with the "potential" of a plus curve and weak changeup according to Diamond Futures. That's not particularly promising in my opinion to be a major league starter.

Some Honorable Mentions:

Justin Berg - plus sinker but never more than an expendable bullpen guy

John Gaub - could be a solid LOOGY, but seems to rely more on deception than stuff

James Russell - lefty bullpen guy, seems a lot like Sean Marshall without the ability to start

DJ LeMahieu - No one thinks he can stick at shortstop and he needs to find some power to be a major league 2b-men.

Dae-Eun Rhee - We'll see how he does after recovering from injury, allegedlly one of the more exciting arms with a fantastic changeup

Rafael Dolis - see Dae-eun Rhee about the injuries

Mitch Atkins - hopefully his 2010 is closer to his 2008, and I still think could be a back-end rotation guy that has been healthy almost his entire career. But he's sure been hittable in what little I've seen so far.

Casey Coleman - doesn't sound like anything special stuff-wise, but was one of the Cubs minor league players of the year in 2009 and sinkerballers that can eat up innings can find good careers in the majors.

The guys from 10 on down would be C to C+ grades in my book and you can flip them anyway you want. Relievers that I don't see every see getting a chance to close are tough to get too excited about and you'll see them in the honorable mentions. 

It's a very young system with guys in their early 20's that are close to contributing. That's a nice thing to have considering the major league club is mostly on the wrong side of 30. I usually don't expect much from farmhands until age 24 or 25 at the major league level, so anything before that is a bonus and a good sign for their futures. But with that youth comes risk and still not a lot of guys with much success at AA or above, so be prepared for the Brian Dopirak-like drop-offs as well with some of these players (and yes I know Dopirak has had a nice resurgence with the Toronto Blue Jays, but he was slated to be Derrek Lee's replacement by 2007 with the Cubs).