TCR: No Good Will Come of This

Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by Rob G. on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 11:29am

(awesome illustration from Tim Souers of Cubby Blue, click on the image for the full-size)

More after the jump...

A few days ago I put up a poll on some of the lineup atrocities over the years, which Neifi ran away with at 73% of the vote, but this continued mess of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez hitting ahead of Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto finished a distant second at 11% (with Soriano hitting leadoff finishing just behind at 10%). Anyway, how about contextualizing the current atrocity in numbers thanks to Baseball Prospectus (ROB is Runners on Base).

Player PA ROB
Ramirez 141 104
Lee 154 103
Byrd 143 97
Theriot 155 85
Soriano 121 67
Fukudome 117 63
Soto 107 62
Fontenot 85 53
Colvin 59 52
Baker 57 46
Nady 52 42

As you can see, the two guys struggling the most have had the most opportunities to drive in runs thanks to batting in the middle of the order.  On top of that, thanks to their struggles, there isn't anyone on-base for Soriano while he is hitting. It's a double whammy of lineup stupidity. Just to compare, Chris Young of Arizona and Raul Ibanez of Philly are two other NL #6 hitters with a similar number of at-bats and Young has had 95 ROB in a 144 PA and Ibanez has had 90 ROB in a 130 PA.

Now let's add a column of OBI% or Others Batted In. When we talk about a guy being a run producer, this is where they should be excelling at, driving in the other guys on base in front of them (16-17% is the average). Granted, it's a number that fluctuates quite a bit from year-to-year, but you gotta take advantage of the hot hitters.

Player PA ROB OBI%
Ramirez 141 104 11.5%
Lee 154 103 11.7%
Byrd 143 97 18.6%
Theriot 155 85 14.1%
Soriano 121 67 19.4%
Fukudome 117 63 20.6%
Soto 107 62 9.7%
Fontenot 85 53 20.8%
Colvin 59 52 9.6%
Baker 57 46 2.2%
Nady 52 42 11.9%

I wouldn't worry about Soto much, he just gets walked whenever someone is on-base so they can face the pitchers, but while Lee and Ramirez struggle, Soriano is basically just being back to a leadoff man in the middle of the order. Maybe that was Lou's plan all along.

Today, nothing changes with Theriot, Byrd, Lee, Nady, Ramirez, Soriano, Soto, Castro and Gorzelanny set to battle the Pirates lefty Brian Burres.

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#1 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by Ryno on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 11:47am.

Hahah... very funny.

#2 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by The Real Neal on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 12:00pm.

Nice one. Still waiting for my coffee table book.

Rob, wrong 'there' there, 2nd sentence after the ROB list.

#3 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by Ryno on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 12:40pm.

Down 3-0 already. Great.

#4 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by billybucks on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 12:43pm.

Pre-Ricketts: Cubs beat Pirates.

"Year One": Still looking for an inferior team -- no luck so far, despite playing the Pirates, Reds, Astros and Marlins.

#5 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by big_lowitzki on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 12:48pm.

Damn... Ramirez can't catch a break. He finally gets a big hit, and it sticks in the vines and he doesn't get an RBI.

#6 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by big_lowitzki on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 12:49pm.

Woo... and Soriano gets lucky with a bloop single, and we have a tie game. Over/under for total runs in this game? 15?

#7 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by Rob Richardson on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:00pm.

Life is more fun when Lee and ARam don't make outs.

#8 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by Ryno on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:26pm.

It just sunk in for me that 5 guys in the Cubs lineup are hitting over 300, yet they are 15-20.

R. Theriot 2b .324
M. Byrd cf .346
A. Soriano lf .333
G. Soto c .310
S. Castro ss .364

#9 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by jacos on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:33pm.

and none of them are in the 3-4-5 spot today.

#10 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by crunch on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:37pm.

at least our main RBI men are in the #2 and #6 slots...wait.

#11 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by jacos on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:41pm.

I can kinda understand lee and aram in and around 3-4-5 but there is now way to defend Nada batting 4th every time he plays. Not with Byrd, Sori tearing the yard up now.

#12 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by Ryno on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:50pm.

Maybe Lou is a big believer in regression to the mean? Err... progression to the mean?

#13 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by crunch on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:51pm.

i don't think it's a tragedy, but i'm a little sick of watching soriano waste RBI slot hits.

byrd at least gets to hit 4th/5th occasionally...

aram should be where sori is in the lineup until his bat "wakes up"

byrd and soriano are the power...and they're hitting..

be nice to see soto move up a little, too.

#15 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by crunch on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:52pm.

...and byrd hits another homer...

#16 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by jacos on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:55pm.

Marlon Byrd is the tits.

#17 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by MikeC on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:22pm.

Well this is what happens when a player goes into a slump and you start jockeying the lineup all around. By time you figure out the player is back on track, you have pretty much wasted a ton of good RBI chances in the middle of the lineup.

This is knee jerk managing that the fans want.

#18 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by crunch on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:28pm.

we're a month and 1/2 into the season.

aram has almost 140 PAs with very constant suck...that's almost 1/4th of a season.

nady hitting 4th/5th so often when he plays i don't get at all...

dlee in the 3 slot i can buy because he's at least seeing the ball with occasional flashes of constancy.

uggg...

#20 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by Jace on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:29pm.

Correction - What you described might be what happens with Lou. Most of us have been calling for moving ARam out of that slot for at least a week... I agree that by the time Lou does it, Aram may be heating up...

#24 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by jacos on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:46pm.

XAVIER NADA IS BATTING 4TH on a $ 140 million team!!!

#14 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by jacos on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:51pm.

Saltalamacchia has the Mackey Sassers

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arc...

#19 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by artskoe on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:27pm.

Is Hill hurt? I think he has a better chance of throwing these speedy Pirates out, but it looks like he is in the Lou dug-house.

#21 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by big_lowitzki on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:42pm.

Is Hill hurt?

No... he just sucks. And Soto is good.

And FWIW, Hill has a career 33% CS%, compared to Soto's 27%. Which basically means that Hill would throw out a handful of extra baserunners out a year.

#22 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by jacos on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:45pm.

His win % can't be ignored!!!

#23 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by artskoe on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:45pm.

Thanks Big for proving my point. We could use those handful of extra outs today.

#50 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by big_lowitzki on Mon, 05/17/2010 - 8:08am.

That is a couple of extra base runners a year, not a day.

#25 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by crunch on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:49pm.

you're ignoring the 3+mph hill adds to a pitcher's fastball, too, fwiw.

#26 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by jacos on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:49pm.

WTF Grabow!!!

#27 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by crunch on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:50pm.

"cortisone" shot, eh? hmmm...

#28 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by jacos on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:12pm.

ruh-roh

#29 Re: Cubs Lineup Waste

Submitted by crunch on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:13pm.

wtf...4 hits in a row vs. Z...pain.

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