Who Says the Cubs are Playing for Nothing?
The Cubs are set to mercifully play their final game of the season against the San Diego Padres tonight. Other than the rather meaningless goal of Ryan Dempster hitting 200 innings, a win or loss could be the difference between drafting Ryan Braun or Wade Townsend.
As you probably know, the Cubs are in a September race of their own that has come down to the final day. Oh sure, nothing as immediately gratifying as the current wild card races, but depending on how the games play out tonight, the Cubs can do as well as the 5th spot in the draft or fall back as far as the 8th spot. The ramifications of which could be rather meaningful for next year's draft and upcoming Cubs seasons. Just going back to 1995, here's who was picked #5 through #8:
- 1995: Ariel Prieto, Jaime Jones, J. Johnson, T. Helton
- 1996: John Patterson, Seth Greisinger, Matt White, Chad Green
- 1997: V. Wells, Geoff Goetz, D. Reichert, JJ Davis
- 1998: JD Drew, Ryan Mills, Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez
- 1999: B.J Garbe, Josh Girdley, Kyle Snyder, Bobby Bradley
- 2000: Justin Wayne, Rocco Baldelli, Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland
- 2001: Mark Teixeira, Josh Karp, Chris Smith, J. Van Benschoten
- 2002: Clint Everts, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Scott Moore
- 2003: Chris Lubanski, Ryan Harvey, Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm
- 2004: Mark Rogers, Jeremy Sowers, Homer Bailey, Wade Townsend (O's)
- 2005: Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Troy Tulowitzki, Wade Townsend (Rays)
- 2006: Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Drew Stubbs
- 2007: Matt Wieters, Ross Detwiler, Matt LaPorta, Casey Weathers
- 2008: Buster Posey, Kyle Skipworth, Yonder Alonso, Gordon Beckham
- 2009: Matthew Hobgood, Zack Wheeler, Mike Minor, Mike Leake
- 2010: Drew Pomeranz, Barret Loux, Matt Harvey, Delino DeShields Jr.
- 2011: Bubba Starling, Anthong Rendon, Archie Bradley, Francisco Lindor
Not that you can't get a good pick at #8, and it might even be better than the #5 pick, but you have to like your chances a lot better at #5. Had Soriano struck out yesterday like he normally does, it would have just been a battle for the 5th or 6th spot tonight.
The first four spots of the 2012 draft are locked as Seattle owns the tiebreaker over Baltimore to get the #3 spot. That tiebreaker is whomever had the worse record the prior season. The Cubs currently hold the 7th spot in the draft losing the tiebreaker to the Royals. The Cubs also lose the tiebreaker to the Pirates if they end up tied, but hold a tiebreak advantage over the Marlins, Rockies and Padres and thus can do no worse than the #8 spot in the draft. So here are the potential scenarios for the 5th spot with the number in parenthesis being the number of season wins in that scenario:
Cubs lose thus Padres win (71), Royals win(72), Pirates win or lose(72
or 73) = tie between Cubs and Padres and Cubs get the 5th spot
Cubs lose (71) thus Padres win (71), Royals lose(71), Pirates win or lose(72 or 73) = 3-way tie between Cubs, Royals and Padres with Royals taking the #5 spot, Cubs #6, Padres #7.
Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals lose(71), Pirates win(73) = Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Cubs 7th, Pirates 8th, 9th or 10th depending on Marlins and Rockies game (Pirates own tiebreak advantage over both).
Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals lose(71), Pirates lose(72) = Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Pirates 7th, Cubs 8th and doesn't matter what Marlins or Rockies do
Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals win (72), Pirates win (73) = Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Cubs 7th, Pirates 8th, 9th or 10th depending on Marlins and Rockies games
Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals win (72), Pirates lose (72) = Padres get 5th spot, Pirates 6th, Royals 7th, Cubs 8th
I left Oakland in there, although they have no effect on the Cubs, but if you're curious they own the tiebreaker over Rockies, but lose it to Pirates and Marlins.
Ultimately, a Cubs loss means either the #5 or #6 pick and a Cubs win means either the 7th or 8th pick. A Cubs loss and Royals win is what we should all be rooting for tonight.
If my math is correct, if the Cubs play .500 baseball for the rest of the season, they will finish with 99 wins. I only just confirmed through Baseball Reference that 97 wins last year (and 2008) were the most Cubs wins in my lifetime. I think that last year while Arrieta was pitching better than Cy F. Young I didn't really get or appreciate what he was doing. I'm trying to try to grasp in the moment just how fucking remarkable this season is.
This is awesome.
(CSN Chicago will air Vin Scully's call of the Sunday Cubs vs. Dodgers game...well for an inning at least)
I figured this was going to be the most meaningless regular season in Cubs history...and it is pretty much on point, although I certainly didn't think we'd have close to a 14 game lead.
But, one bad hop in game 1 in October could change absolutely everything we will remember about this year.
oh he's great, there's like 10 great pitchers in the NL right now that can flat out dominate though. Picking #2 (behind Kershaw) doesn't matter much to me right now. Much like whom the Cubs will play in the playoffs won't matter much, they're gonna be good teams.
The Cubs great pitching has a lot more to do with their great defense this year and plenty of good luck (#1 in ERA, #4 in FIP behind Nats, Mets and Dodgers with a rather ridiculous .258 BABIP against Cubs' pitchers).
Cubs pitchers do strike out more hitters than Giants pitchers and do walk more hitters than Giants pitchers so that's a few more balls in play. Cubs' pitchers actually have a higher groundball rate though. Crawford is just really good and baseball happens.
i do what i want.
i run with 12 gangs and we only commit hate crimes.
i do what i want.
I was asking how well Scherzer holds on runners.
BTW, your used underwear remark sounds rather specific. Please don't project. Thanks.
nothing gets you going like someone talking about lester, eh?
i hope you're on his payroll or he sends you used underwear or whatever you're into.
btw, he holds runners like shit. he does things with runners i've never seen another pitcher do in my life...even going back before i was born as far as i can tell. would you like to discuss it? that sounds like it could be educational and fun. hit me up, bruh.
last year they won 97...and came in 3rd in the division. crazy game on a year-to-year basis.
this year it's likely no one else in the division will win 90, though it's technically possible at this point.
no matter what, this is a special team, though...very well rounded...and should be mostly intact next year with a bonus schwarber. chapman may not be around, but whatever...rondon and crew are capable even if not on chapman's level.
How well does he hold on runners?
It's August 26. Cubs with 14 game lead. And not for #1 draft pick.
Words I never thought I would type together.
One more victory to ensure a winning season!
If I were a betting man
Give me the Dodgers tonite, not just because of
Monty on mound.
Two nights in LA for the kids? Woooo
/Prove me wrong
When Scherzer is on his game, he might the the most dominant and intimidating pitcher. A couple of games he has pitched against the Cubs when he had his stuff, and his mound presence was just powerful.
So are lack of chances due to the great pitching?
TLS watch: 0-4 with Iowa last night. Saving his pinch hits for September.