Who’s On First in 2012?

Sweet Lou brings us a guest column on what the Cubs may do at first base in 2012

It will be interesting to see who will be playing first base for the Cubs in 2012. There was talk in recent weeks that the Cubs had an interest in Albert Pujols, but that obviously didn’t materialize. Now that Pujols is headed to California, who might the Cubs turn to to fill the void at first base?

Bryan LaHair appears to be the most likely in-house candidate, with Jeff Baker a close second. I can’t imagine that the Cubs would settle for either LaHair or Baker to start at first base for them in 2012, but anyone paying attention to the Cubs in recent years knows that not everything they do makes sense.

If the Cubs go the free agent route, Prince Fielder is the big name still left on the board. He’s looking for 8-10 years at $20 million-plus per year. That’s a lot of years and money for a guy who many feel will be a DH five or six years down the line.

Could Fielder be had on a four or five year deal? Fielder’s agent Scott Boras says “No way!” but many front office types believe that is going to be how things play out. A four or five year deal for the 27-year old Fielder sounds a lot better for the Cubs (or anyone else that signs Fielder) than a 10-year contract that is almost certain to become an albatross.

In a recent tweet, Peter Gammons opined that the Cubs do not have the cash to pursue Fielder. However, there appears to be ample evidence to the contrary. For instance, if the Cubs were truly in on Pujols and were not just trying to drive up his price, they must have had some money available. Also, it’s highly unlikely that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer would have agreed to join the Cubs front office if there was no money for them to work with. I think it’s safe to say that if the Cubs decide they want to pursue Fielder, the money will be available.

Some have speculated that the Cubs will bring back Carlos Pena for another year or two. Pena turned down the Cubs offer of arbitration, but that doesn’t mean he can’t come back as a free agent. He is looking for a two-year deal that will likely be in the $10-$12 million per year range.

Pena had a bit of a bounce back year in 2011. After a horrible year for Tampa Bay in 2010, the lefty hit .225/.357/.462 with 28 home runs and 80 rbi for the Cubs last year. It’s unlikely Pena will ever be a guy who hits for a high average, but over the course of his career, he has been fairly productive.

Another free agent that can play first base is Michael Cuddyer. He has been linked to several teams this off season, but the Cubs have not been one of them. Cuddyer is a versatile fielder who can play first base, second base and right field. He can also fill in at third base in a pinch. The Twins have already offered him a three-year, $24 million contract, and others have speculated that it’s going to take more money to land Cuddyer.

Other free agents include former Cubs Derrick Lee and Xavier Nady, Eric Hinske, Russell Branyan, Casey Kotchman, and Conor Jackson. I have not heard any of them linked to the Cubs nor do I suspect that the JedStein (Hoy-Stein, The Jed, JedStein, Eerie Pythons, Jed-n-Stein, etc.) brain trust has any interest in any of them.

If the Cubs choose to obtain a first baseman via trade, the Angels are suddenly the most obvious trading partner. After signing former Cardinal Albert Pujols, the Angels find themselves with an overabundance of first basemen.

It is a near certainty that 28-year old Kendry Morales will be on the trading block. Morales played in only 51 games for the Angels in 2010 before he broke his ankle in a home plate celebration. The injury required surgery and sidelined the switch-hitter for the entire 2011 season. The Angels have said they are hopeful that Morales will be ready for 2012 spring training, and they are expecting an update on his condition after the first of the year. According to Cot’s Contracts, Morales made $2.975 million in 2011 and is arbitration eligible in 2012.

Mark Trumbo, 2011 AL rookie-of-the-year-runner-up, also appears to be odd-man-out following the Pujols signing. The Angels initially said that they do not plan on trading Trumbo, opting instead to give him a try at third-base. However, that is far from a certainty. Trumbo has never played third-base at the professional level and it is a bit of a leap to believe he could step in as the starter at the hot corner for the Angels next season.

In addition to spending time at third base, there has been talk about Trumbo getting at-bats as the DH and potentially as a corner outfielder. This is a possibility, but the Halos also have to find at-bats for Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu, all veterans who will be very difficult, if not impossible to trade, as well as hot prospect Mike Trout. In his rookie campaign, Trumbo hit .254/.291/.477 with 29 homers and 87 rbi.

When the Marlins thought they might be getting Pujols, Gaby Sanchez became a prime trade candidate. However, with Pujols going to the Angels, Sanchez likely is no longer on the trading block. Of course, that could change if Miami swoops in and snatches up Fielder. At this point, that appears to be an unlikely scenario.

The Rangers postured in the early off-season saying that they plan on having Mitch Moreland at first base in 2012. However, they appear to be emerging as a top contender for Prince Fielder and there are rumors that the Rangers have discussed a deal with Tampa Bay that would send Moreland to the Rays for rhp Wade Davis. If Moreland is truly available, the Cubs might be interested in talking to the Rangers. In 2011, the 26-year old lefty hit .259/.320/.414 with 16 home runs and 51 rbi.

Are there other likely trading partners out there? Who do you want to see at first base for the Cubs in 2012?

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Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

- Brackman to Reds on major league deal

- Ramirez gets $6M next year from Brewers, then $10M, then $16M with a $4M buyout and mutual option for 2015

- D. Willis to Philiies

- Sky is blue and John Rocker admits to steroid use
http://tracking.si.com/2011/12/13/john-rocker...

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

rocker also threw a spit-ball regularly by wringing his arm letting the sweat fall down his arm to his hands.

oh yeah, and he's a jerk.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

John Rocker, I never saw that coming. I have a question on Braun. Is this his second violation? I thought 50 games was for the second violation. Am I correct or wrong. If I am correct, why is this not being stated. It would tend to minimize his claim of being clean and it's all a big mistake.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

first violation is 50 games
second violation is 100 games
third violation is lifetime ban

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

I think the important thing to remember is that he was just doing whatever it took to win. There's nothing wrong with that. I'm advising him to keep denying and never, ever admit to any wrongdoing. At this point, it's all bunch of "he said/she said".

A wise man once said in a poorly made video that snitches get stitches. Never forget...

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

The Cubs had openings in right field, at third base and at first base. The first two have been filled.

I guess I'm expecting them to make a serious run at Fielder, based on two clues.

There haven't been rumors linking the Cubs with any other 1B apart from Pujols. Even if they liked LaHair, they would not entrust first base to him. Too risky, especially with an already weakened middle of the batting order. LaHair can't be as good as Fielder, anyway, and he's actually older by a year and a half.

And did they really fall in love with Sveum? I didn't. Sveum makes sense if he gives them a better shot at Fielder.

I certainly didn't have my heart set on Fielder going in, but now that I've convinced myself that the Cubs are intent on getting him, I guess I'll be disappointed if they don't succeed.

If they get him, the Cubs will see so many lefty starters that Soriano may actually still be useful. Otherwise, they will need a righty power bat in left, but those aren't hard to find.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

And did they really fall in love with Sveum? I didn't. Sveum makes sense if he gives them a better shot at Fielder.

I'm sure they hired a manager on the off chance he may help a little in acquiring one free agent.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

Sveum signed a 3-year contract for an undisclosed amount. So what do you think, maybe $5 million?

In the next couple weeks, Fielder will sign for $160 million-plus. (Maybe that's way low.)

In that context, let me look at your comment again:

"I'm sure they hired a manager on the off chance he may help a little in acquiring one free agent."

You make the free agent seem like a smaller deal than the manager. That's not what the economics say.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

I could see Morales and maybe Trumbo as real targets, if the Angels look to trade them, but why would the Cubs have any interest in trading for Moreland? They'd probably be better off giving playing time to LaHair at 1B. Heck, I'd probably rather see Marquez Smith or Josh Vitters play some 1B than bother trading for Moreland.

If they don't get Fielder, bring back Pena, or trade for Morales or maybe Trumbo, then I think LaHair will get every chance to start at 1B. It's also still possible that a trade involving Garza or Marmol nets them a young hitter of some kind.

I cannot imagine Jeff Baker starting at 1B as anything other than the short side of a platoon, and right now it looks like that's what he'll be doing at 3rd or, perhaps, with DeWitt at 2B.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

I don't know much about Moreland, but his minor league numbers are nifty. I know he had a shoulder injury this last year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/play...

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

I see that in the minors his K rates are significantly lower than LaHair's, and I guess if we look at comparable ages, then he has shown equal or greater power to what LaHair did. But I have a hard time imagining Moreland would be a long term solution unless he could manage 20+ homers a year, and I don't see much sign of that in his numbers.

Also, to clarify what I said about Baker possibly platooning at 3rd--it wouldn't be because Ian Stewart can't hit lefties. His numbers are only slightly worse against lefties. It would just be because Baker can mash lefties. So unless the Cubs have a second baseman or first baseman who is so much worse against lefties than righties that he can't produce as well as Stewart would, Baker probably slots into 3rd.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

There just isn't any other bat close to Fielder either on the market the next few years or anywhere in the system.

No way this team competes unless we see a massive offensive upgrade. Fielder or Votto are really the only guys who we can get that fits that bill.

Starlin Castro isn't the best offensive weapon on a true contender. At best he should be a 4th or 5th best offensive piece.

Re: Starlin Castro isn't the best offensive weapon on a true con

This is so wrong. He actually was a fantastic leadoff man. It just took the Cubs (too long) to realize it.

batting #1 .327 .370 .471 .841
first hitter game .397 .431 .500 .931
leading off an inning .327 .356 .487 .843

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

I didn't say the kid was garbage. All I am saying is that if Starlin Castro is your best offensive player. You have issues.

On any good team he is going to be the 4th or 5th best hitter in that lineup.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

For reference, Here is what Starlin's .773 OPS would rank among the starting 8 on each of this years playoff teams

Arizona 4th
Milwaukee 7th
Philly 4th
StL 6th
NYY 6th
TB 5th
Det 6th
Tex 6th

So we need to find at least 2-3 other impact bats to fit in around him in the lineup.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

I agree totally with what you are saying, but I also think, regardless of what other players are on the team, Castro's OPS will itself rise over the 2-4 seasons as he adjusts to big-league pitching and grows into his frame.

I'm also still in the camp that would rather see him transition to 2B.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

If defense is truly a priority, then I also want him at 2nd base. Even if it means Darwin Barney at SS next year.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

Dear hoystein- Please let's just improve the shitty defense of this team before we start talking lineup. If it means Castro has to go... or move positions... I don't care. But for god's sake please improve this team defensively and move whoever you have to. I'm not all that fucking attached to any of these guys.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

On any good team he is going to be the 4th or 5th best hitter in that lineup.

Really? Really?

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

Probably should have said good offense, I mean without looking it up I'm guessing he would be 2nd or 3rd on the Giants. And most people consider them a good team.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

Castro's upside is still unknown, though. It's not unreasonable to guess that he's nowhere near his peak.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

I was all ready to defend the honor of Castro, but you're pretty close on that one. He was 3rd among the Cubs regulars last year in wRC+ at 109 (behind Aramis and Pena).

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

I really like Starlin Castro. I especially like him at the price point he is currently at.

I just think he is going to enter the zone of unrealistic fan expectations in the near future. And less because of his doing and more because the current state of the Cubs roster is as bleak as any other time in my memory.

D-E-R-R-E-K

Lee

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

Anybody think the Cubs are likely to pursue recently non-tendered starting pitchers Joe Saunders and/or Jo-Jo Reyes to try to fill out the back end of the rotation a bit? Saunders seems like sort of a Ted Lilly Lite, whereas Jo-Jo Reyes seems more like depth/filler, but he's still relatively young.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

the left-handed Jason Marquis? maybe...

rumor be that Red Sox are interested in Saunders.

definitely skip on JoJo...

fun Cubs-related trivia though, he was a Braves 2nd round pick in 2003 that Braves received for Cubs signing Mike Remlinger. They picked Saltalamacchia with their supplemental pick (Cubs first round pick was protected and they used it on Harvey).

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

The Chicago Cubs are currently an extremely shitty ballclub.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

Good thing they don't play any games in December.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

I am thinking as well that Hoystein is putting a full court press on Fielder.
Its the right time to do it on many levels, provided it is not a soriano contract. No doubt the DH will come to the NL during Princes career.

If this doesn't pan out, I believe they will trade for a surplus Angels player. This will be good for Rob G's wife.

Re: Who’s On First in 2012?

I am 100% okay taking a pass on Fielder. But that's just me.

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