My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

"Small Hall" ballot: Barry Larkin, Rock Raines

"There Are Worse Players in" Ballot: Barry Larkin, Rock Raines, Alan Trammell, Lee Smith, Larry Walker, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez.

"Let the Roiders In" Ballot: add Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Juan Gonzalez, subtract Edgar Martinez.

I'm a bit buzzed writing this, so I'm sure I'm missing some names. I've flipped a bit on Martinez, Walker and McGriff from past years.

Have at it...

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Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

do have to admit that I'd probably prefer Cook on a minor league deal than Sonnastine on a split deal

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/boston-red...

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Seems like Wrigley would be a good fit for him. Fenway, too.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

I don't believe Bagwell was ever formally associated with roids, nor did he ever test positive. Am I missing something? Not being sarcastic, just curious if there is more info out about Bags.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

http://keymancollectibles.com/baseballcards/i...

I kid.

other than being around Caminitti, Clemens and Petitte at times, not that I know of...

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

he's on the heavily suspected list...same one sosa's on. it's not formal and it doesn't exist in reality, but the same names pop up on this "non-list."

a lot of writers are pretty damn sure and some will outright say they believed he used without a lot of fear of being called out for it.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

I always thought that was BS. At the time steroids were all the rage (no pun intended) writers claim they had no idea it was going on. Now, without any evidence, they claim they have good reason to believe Bagwell (and several other players) were juicing.

I'm really starting to believe that the HOF voting should be taken away from the BBWAA. Off the top of my head, I'm not sure what system would be better, but the way things stand now, I think they get it wrong more often than they get it right.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

I think Bagwell's list is different than Sosa's in that didn't Sosa test positive in the "survey" test that was supposed to be anonymous?

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Correct. No such evidence for Bagwell as yet. Simply guilt by association, which is bullshit by association.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

perfect list...raines needs more love.

bagwell deserves it, but perhaps he deserves to enter the debate next year with it's heavy roid-confirmed/roid-suspected class rather than getting in this year.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

In order to retain the integrity of the Hall, my vote would be....

fart.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

roids. :(

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

I would vote for Bagwell, Larkin, Martinez and Raines. If I had to bet, Larkin will be the only one to get in this year.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Why does Lee Smith not get more love? His numbers match up or are better than the other relievers in the Hall. He held the record for saves, and many of his saves came before the one inning save became popular. If Goose Gossage, Rollie Fingers, and Eck are in, how can the man with more saves than any of them not be in?

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Racism

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Lee Smith doesn't like white people?

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

if they're going to let jack morris into the hall of pretty good they might as well let lee smith in. morris should be there in another season or 2 unless trends reverse.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

I like that, The Hall of Pretty Good.

I'm really getting more into the idea of a Super Hall of Fame, though. Have a requirement that voters cannot be complete fucking morons...of course, all sports writers would then be ineligible. And have clear guidelines of what a Super Hall of Famer is, so everyone isn't making their own requirements (eg. he was a dick, so no. he was a showboater, so no. he gave me a rimmy once, so yes.).

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Lol. Rimmy. RJ!

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

He sure pitched to them like he didn't - although I'll admit his stuff was just as nasty to a few black dudes

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

This seems to be the predominant argument against, that he was just a compiler, but the context of his accomplishments, is easy to take for granted now and maybe not fair to Lee:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/1...

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Lee is borderline. He can't touch Gossage. Bad comparison. Fingers & Eck are closer, but Fingers has 400 more innings and was one of the first relief stars. Eck has the two careers thing. Lee has saves, which is sort of a silly stat to begin with. Smith compares better to Sutter, but Bruce has the split-finger innovation.

Player: Innings, ERA+, WAR per BBref:

Goose: 1809, 126, 40.0
Rollie: 1701, 120, 24.4
Eck: 789, 137, 16.6 (reliever years only)
Sutter: 1042, 136, 25

Smith: 1289, 132, 30.3

Again, borderline. I'm not a fan of relievers in the hall, so I err on the side of omission, and I wouldn't have put in Sutter. In fact, I'd probably just pick Goose.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

I think many see Lee Smith as an compiler of career stats but never really a dominant player.

He had 234 saves from 1980-1989 where he was used often in multiple innings, like the closers of old. But during that 10-year stretch, he was just an All-Star twice and only received 1 Cy Young vote (leading to a 9th place finish in 1983). And he pitched in 4 post-season games, taking two losses with an ERA of 8.44. He just wasn't perceived as dominant. During the decade of the 1980s, the following closers received Cy Young Votes:

1980: Gossage (3rd, and 3rd in MVP), Quisenberry (5th and 8th in MVP), McGraw (5th), Sambito (5th)
1981: Fingers (1st and 1st in MVP), Gossage (5th), Sutter (5th)
1982: Quisenberry (3rd and 9th in MVP), Caudil (7th), Stanley (7th), Sutter (3rd and 5th in MVP), Minton (6th and 8th in MVP), Garber (7th)
1983: Quisenberry (2nd and 6th in MVP), Orosco (3rd), Holland (6th)
1984: Hernandez (1st, and 1st in MVP), Quisenberry (2nd and 3rd in MVP), Sutter (3rd and 6th in MVP), Gossage (6th)
1985: Quisenberry (3rd), Moore (7th and 6th in MVP), Reardon (7th)
1986: Righetti (4th), Eichorn (6th)
1987: Reardon (8th), Bedrosian (1st)
1988: Eckersley (2nd and 5th in MVP)
1989: Eckersley (6th and 5th in MVP), Olson (6th), Russell (9th), Davis (1st and 6th in MVP), Williams (9th)

So if you were a sportswriter in the 1980s, you would note the dominance of Fingers to start the decade, and Gossage, Sutter, and Quisenberry for the first half of it, then a couple year lull, and then the reign of Eck began in 1988. Smith was never perceived as being that dominant reliever. He was always among the top 5 or so, but there were a couple who were always well ahead of him, and then the flavor of the year (Hernandez, Mark Davis) would jump ahead too.

Beginning in 1990, with his trade to the Cardinals, he was used almost exclusively as a 1-inning reliever for the rest of his career (436 games, 456 innings). He added on another 244 saves before he retired in 1997. The last couple of years were middle relief, so he basically had 6 seasons as a modern closer, saving 31, 47, 43, 46, 33, and 37 games. He made 5 All-Star teams during this period and received Cy Young votes in three years, finishing 2nd, 4th, and 5th.

But he was competing with a new generation of closers at this point. While Smith was racking up saves, others were doing so with far more dominant seasons. 1990-1991 were solid years for him, but in 1990 Eckersley had a 0.61 ERA and Thigpen had 57 saves. In 1991, Bryan Harvey had one fewer save, but an ERA of 1.60, 101 Ks in just 78 IP, and an ERA+ of 257! Then from 1992-1995, Smith's ERA was well over 3.00 each year, and so while he was still getting saves, he was doing so far less dominantly than guys like Randy Myers, John Franco, Rod Beck, and even guys like Duane Ward and Jose Mesa. Playing for 7 teams from 1990-1997 certainly hurt Smith's image as well.

So in the end, Smith is difficult for voters to categorize. I think many think that had he pitched from 1975-1989, we wouldn't be having this discussion. He was clearly not as dominant in his time as were Fingers, Gossage, Sutter, and Quisenberry; and he wouldn't have had the easy, 1-inning saves, to pad his career totals at the end. Similarly, if he pitched from 1990-2005, we would probably see him has a John Franco, who got just 27 votes on his only year on the ballot and fell off with less than 5 percent, despite having the 2nd most saves when he retired.

His big career save totals combined with this perception that he was one of the old-school guys like Gossage and Sutter keep him in the discussion; but when a lot of voters look into it, they don't see him as dominant as the old-school guys or as dominant as the new school guys like Eck, Hoffman, and Rivera, and so I just don't see him climbing much higher than where he is right now.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Your argument is very good. But, shouldn't the fact that Smith was very good, if not dominate, for a long period of time factor into the Hall of Fame argument? Smith finished in the top 10 in saves 12 times. Led the league in saves 4 times. Was a 7 time all star. I believe that he is in the category of a very good player for a long period of time.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

I'm not sure that the HoF should be for "very good" players. It should be great players.

7 time all-star? Meh.

I'm not opposed to him being in, but being "very good" doesn't make someone HoF worthy, imo.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

"I'm not sure that the HoF should be for "very good" players. It should be great players. "

Too late for that.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Is it possible to keep the Hall of Fame, but nullify its importance by creating a Super Hall of Fame?

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

How about a Baseball Hall of Infamy? Players could be moved back and forth depending on what we think of them.

Pete Rose first inductee into the Hall of Infamy.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Super-villain Hall of Fame you mean. Pete the Black Rose we'll call him.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

would there be a Saturday morning cartoon to go along with it?

That would be cool.

Re: My 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

Lee's top 5 comps from BBref:

Jeff Reardon
Trevor Hoffman
John Franco
Roberto Hernandez
Doug Jones

All between 1000-1300 innings, all with 120-135 ERA+ (except Hoffman in the 140s), all with about 20-30 WAR. All players that fit the definition of very good for a long period of time. Closers, to be sure, and more important than middle relievers, but in the end, still relief pitchers.

The HOF is a subjective exercise, so each voter draws their own line. I think Hoffman stands above this group (over Smith), but I think Smith is better than the rest of those comps, but not considerably better. Part of the reason I didn't want Sutter; he lowered the standard below where I prefer.

We probably wouldn't consider a position player below 60 WAR for his career, but we'll have lengthy conversations about relief pitchers with half that. Now, a position player cannot do what a closer does, and there's value there. And it should be considered in context with how peers perform.

But I'm not sure how much to consider saves. A pitcher can put together 3 innings, give up 2 runs and get the same credit another pitcher receives for one pitch. It's just kind of a goofy, created stat, like pitcher wins. Maybe like "wins", "saves" is more meaningful over a career, which helps Lee. For my part, I'm just not convinced of that.

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