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The Current NL Central Lineups
I'm using the MLB depth charts, the Bill James projections for wOBA on Fangraphs and their 2012 playing age along with a few assumptions like Dusty isn't going to play Devin Mesoraco or Chris Heisey over veterans. Let's see how the NL Central offenses stack up. Obviously the actual order of lineups and players may vary, and there's no accounting for expected playing time due to injuries or sucktitude.
Cardinals:
Furcal(.324), Beltran(.367), Holliday(.394), Berkman(.380), Freese(.353), Molina(.320), Jay(.328), Schumaker(.309)
Average wOBA: .347
Age: 31.75
Brewers:
Morgan(.311), Weeks(.348), Braun(.411), Hart(.355), Ramirez(.362), Gamel(.357), Lucroy(.319), A. Gonzalez(.285)
Average wOBA: .344
Age: 29.375
Reds:
Stubbs(.331), Phillips(.332), Votto(.408), Rolen(.334), Bruce(.363), Ludwick(.323), Hanigan(.324), Cozart (.315)
Average wOBA: .341
Age: 29.75
Cubs:
DeJesus(.324), Castro(.346), LaHair(.352), Soriano(.331), Stewart(.329), Soto(.344), Byrd(.319), Barney (.294)
Average wOBA: .330
Age: 29.375
Pirates:
Presley(.345), Tabata(.328), Walker(.329), McCutchen(.360), Alvarez(.333), G. Jones(.338), Barajas(.288), Barmes(.300)
Average wOBA: .328
Age: 28.125
Astros:
Lowrie(.341), Altuve(.321), Martinez(.353), C. Lee(.339), Bogusevic(.325), Paredes(.292), Schafer(.288), J. Castro (.287)
Average wOBA: .318
Age: 26.375
The Cardinals are of course going to have to stay healthy to keep up the offense and that's no small task with Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday and Rafael Furcal on the roster. I'm sure the Cubs are hoping to get a little bit more from David DeJesus and Ian Stewart than their current projections, but doesn't mean it will happen. If and when the Cubs replace Byrd and LaHair with Anthony Rizzo(.318) and Brett Jackson(.342), their average age would go down to 27.125, as would the projected wOBA, albeit slightly to .329 (Rizzo gets no love in the Bill James projections for whatever reason). Another fun exercise for the Cubs is to replace LaHair, DeJesus and Stewart with Prince Fielder, Beltran and Aramis Ramirez because why the hell not? this is all just for fun. In that case, the average wOBA goes up to .345 while also likely hurting the Brewers and Cardinals a bit. Of course, that also has the potential to bring the average DOTDL up to potentially astronomical levels (Dollars on The Disabled List) along with the problem of justifying the $50M or so to pay them for just this year.
I'll see if I can do something similar with the projected pitching staffs in the very near future.
Comments
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
with Tigers out of the Cespedes talks most likely, it would appear that Cubs and Marlins are ahead of the pack. I'd have to think Marlins are far more willing to give out stupid money at this point though, especially if they think Cespedes is someone they can market around.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
For sake of comparison in the above, versus Barney, what are the numbers for DeWitt and Baker? Are the numbers provided with splits, so you could generate one assuming a DeWitt/Baker platoon?
Barney needs to be a utility/bench-only player. Maybe Dale will be a bit smarter in that regard than was Quade.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
They don't split it out, but it's Baker (.335) and DeWitt (.314) fwiw. There's obviously a defensive component though that isn't being accounted for in wOBA.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
Here is a wish that I think makes sense:
Garza (and cash and/or another player)
To Cleveland for:
Dillon Howard RHP
Jake Sisco RHP
Luigi Rodriguez OF
The thinking is Cleveland needs to answer Detroit move, and while their minor league system is not well ranked they do have some raw talent at the lowest levels. So they get Garza for a few years, and then their A/AA guys will be ready when they are ready to reload. Cubs get a few more pieces for the future to gamble on...
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
fwiw, Dillon Howard and Jake Sisco can't be traded for a year, although I presume they could work out a PTBNL.
But I'm fairly certain Cubs would be looking for pieces that are ready for the majors now or at the very least 2013...at least some of the pieces.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
Back to the drawing board!!
Re: Soler
some links for those interested in him, expected cost is $20M range and likely bidding won't start until after the season starts.
http://orioles-nation.com/2011/12/12/talent-f...
Looking at Jorge Solver’s age and physical frame makes you think you just caught lighting in a bottle. His frame and projection is still massively untapped and he could be a 230 pound masher in his prime; it is that type of lower foundation and torque that makes every scout think he will be better than Leonys Martin, who was signed by the Rangers last year. He shows every tool that you covet and then some for an up the middle prospect.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects...
Soler, the 18U team's right fielder, has a strapping 6-foot-3, 205-pound body, is 18 and has five-tool potential. The best running time scouts got for Balaguer was 4.4 seconds to first base; Soler, also a right-handed hitter, checked in at 4.26. Soler has bat speed and what one scout called "explosive power" to go with above-average arm strength.
http://www.snywhyguys.com/2011/12/25/scouting...
Soler is four years younger and more talented than Leonys Martin, another Cuban outfielder who signed a $15.6 million major league contract with the Rangers in April. Once Soler is cleared to sign with a major league team, he’s expected to top Martin’s deal.
The new CBA provides for a $2.9 million international cap for each team for the 2012-13 signing period, which doesn’t start until July 2. As long as Soler signs before then, he won’t be subject to the cap. And even if he were, he’s talented enough and the penalties for busting the cap are so light (a 100-percent tax on the overage and a prohibition on signing any international player for more than $250,000 in the next signing period) that I bet several clubs would be willing to exceed the $2.9 million.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
Yeah, but how old is he REALLY?
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
i really wanted to like Baseball IQ, but it's pretty bland/dry.
these guys are some legit/hardcore baseball nerds, though. it's delivering what it promised and you can learn + jog your memory about a lot.
matt vag is good for keeping guys loose, but almost all the contestants lack personality.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
"but almost all the contestants lack personality'
heh
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaki...
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
Can we get a headline or quick summary of a link so I know if it's worth clicking?
Yes, I'm that lazy.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
Word.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
You guys probably opened your presents on Christmas eve.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
If you hover over the link in the trib's case, you get a summary:
beginning of URL and then: /breaking/chi-wrigley-rooftop-venue-sold-in-bankruptcy-auction-20120124,0,4840974.story
That was enough for me. And yes, I'm that lazy, too, so I relate. I didn't click through. No offense to Jacos.
Re: Wrigley Rooftop "Auction"
Some great reporting by the affirmative action Trib reporter...
//The Schlenker bid of $4.8 million was named the preferred bidder prior to Friday's auction, meaning other bidders would have to top the price.//
Subsequent bidders would have to bid more to win. Who knew?
..
Actually, with a preferred bidder designation someone would have had to outbid Schlenker by 5% to win the bid and no doubt they were hoping the Ricketts would do just that.
Bruce Levine Seems to like Wideout
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/
The way this article is written, you would think that Samninja was one of the Cubs' best pitchers. This came as a pretty big shock to me. I must not have been paying attention last year, but in the past he has always been infuriatingly wild... What is everyone else's take on him?
When i looked up his career stats, I pulled up an article saying the Cubs had declined his option for 2012... What is his contract status?
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
Had a good if not lucky year in 2011. Cubs still own his rights, he's now an auto-renewal for a year and then arb eligible starting next season.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
If the Cubs declined his option for 2012, I don't understand why he is auto-renewal. I would have thought that made him a free agent... If you could explain this, I would appreciate it.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
Samardzija signed a major league contract right after being drafted that had him signed through 2011 with options for 2012 and 2013.
The Cubs declined his options, but he still hasn't reached 6 years of service time, so he's still property of the Cubs. A matter of fact, he hasn't even reached arbitration eligibility, so for one season he's still an auto-renewal player which means Cubs can pay him essentially whatever they want over the league minimum.
Most players get called up and they are auto-renewal players for the first 3 years and then arb eligible the next 3 years and then free agents. Samardzija signed the somewhat unique major league deal, so his first few years were covered by that contract. The Cubs wisely declined his option this season because he hadn't reached 3 years of service time and hasn't been as good as they wanted, so he's now like any other player with 2+ years of service time although he is out of option years already.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
So the option was to pay him a lot of money or a little money?
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
pretty much...
had he reached 3 years or more of service time by the end of 2011 and been a little better, then picking up the option would have made some sense for the Cubs, but the way things worked out, it was a no-brainer to decline it.
Bad thing is he's out of option years though, so he has to stick with the club or be outrighted and then exposed to waivers.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
Thanks, Rob.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
I could be wrong, but I thought that the Cubs can only reduce his salary by 15%?
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
oh that's right, good catch...seems to be 20% though.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/...
Because of Samardzija’s service time, he remains under club control as a pre-arbitration-eligible player. Under Major League Baseball rules, the Cubs have the right to renew his contract for no less than 80 percent — $2.24 million — of his 2011 salary.
it was a $3M option, so they save just under $800K.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
And they are going to cut his per diem from 50 dollars a day to 20 dollars a day.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
There is no such thing as a lucky year.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
tell that to Kent Bottenfield
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
And Corbin Bernsen.
Re: The Current NL Central Lineups
Samardzija came on strong last year as the season wore on. Towards the end, he looked like the pitcher the Cubs had hoped for a couple of years ago. I believe that is the reason why the Cubs felt comfortable in trading Cashner.
Whether he can do it as a starter, however, is still up in the air.
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