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Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 6:42pm — Rob G.

The Cubs did sign an acclaimed player out of Cuba, but it's not Yoenis Cespedes or Jorge Soler. Rather 18-year old LHP Gerardo Concepcion. A player Kevin Goldstein called polished for his age, but with the ceiling of a #4/#5 starter and whom Goldstein would put at #6 on his Top 11 Cubs prospect list.  Standing at 6'2", he throws in the upper 80's to 90mph with a curve and a change-up (what's up Ted Lilly?). Considering his age and alleged polish, he should start in Peoria rather than hang back in Arizona and then join Boise or the Arizona Rookie League in June. Enrique Rojas says the deal is for a total of $7M and a major league deal, which means a 40-man roster move would be necessary. ESPN Chicago adds that incentives can take the deal up to around the $8M mark. All this makes the Jeff Samardzija draft deal look good.

The Cubs have also signed Ryan-Rowland Smith to a minor league deal. The 29-year old Aussie pitched in the Astros minor leagues after spending parts of 4 seasons in the majors with the Mariners, but I'll always remember him from this commercial. I presume he'll be added to the non-roster invite list for spring training.

Also, with Edwin Jackson signing with the Nationals, the Cubs at the moment own the #6, #43, #55 and #65 picks in the 2012 draft. Derek Lee and Raul Ibanez are the last two Type B free agents out there and there's no guarantee they'll sign, but if they do, they both rank higher than Carlos Pena in the Elias Rankings, so those last two picks I mentioned could drop to as low as #57 and #67 if I did my math correctly. BA put out an early top 100 prospect list for the 2012 draft for some early obsessing.

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Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:08pm — crunch

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

wow 7m?

they gave the guy round 1, top-5 pick money.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:09pm — Rob G.

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

and a major league deal...

and Hendry gets bashed for signing Samardzija.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:08pm — The E-Man

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

With this signing, the Cubs will have the largest collection of bona fide #4 and #5 starters in baseball.

How exciting for the future!

Having an Aussie like Ryan-Roland Smith also gives the team a kick ass tough guy in the event of any bench clearing brawls. Nice!

Go Hoystein!

Actually, in my fantasy world, I am thinking it is a precursor to the signing of one of the other two Cubans.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:14pm — Rob G.

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

if indeed a major league deal, I'm guessing Sonnastine or Mateo are the 40-man victim.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:19pm — superjimmer

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

Needless to say I love it. Cubs sign the best possible long term players they can and cheap players like Ryan Rowland-Smith, with multiple years of quality and a single outlier year (of crap). You can only get what's available folks. Concepcion could be a badass like any other prospect. Just keep signing them . . . Just cause Goldstein thinks he's a 4/5! Big deal. I mean that's the game: Who really can play? - well nobody knows. Or I guess we could just put Goldstein computer sims out there and charge admission. Nothing against Goldstein BTW, the point is Concepcion might exceed Kevin's opinion - or bomb. Lots of options but you gotta pay to play!

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:24pm — Rob G.

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

well Goldstein's take is the scouting community's take, or at least the few that he surveyed and knows. There's usually not that big a disparity.

That being said, #6 prospect isn't terrible, puts him behind Rizzo, Jackson, Baez, Maples, Szczur and at 6-2", maybe there's some room for his fastball to grow.

A little expensive for his upside and I really hate giving out major league deals, but as long as there's not a NTC, not too bad.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 7:49am — Old and Blue

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

I'm no scout but at 18 you really can't judge the UP part of upside.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:40am — John Beasley

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

Except "18" is also the percent chance that's actually how old he is, right?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:42am — Rob G.

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

you're kidding right?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:48am — 10man

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

i wonder if anyone has really charted or did a study comparing scouting projections at an early age and actual performance of major leaguers after say 10 years or so of playing in the bigs.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:25pm — crunch

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

7m is a heck of a gamble...with a pro contract on it, too...and he's 18...and doesn't have a ++ pitch.

the guy in cuba supposedly had a 5-ish per 9ip K rate, too.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:30pm — Rob G.

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2012/01/who-is-...

some stats at that link, 4.7 K/9

but also 18 and playing in a league that people say is close to Hi-A.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:50pm — crunch

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

"Concepcion, 18, was named the Rookie of the Year in Cuba's Serie Nacional last season after posting a 3.36 ERA and 53/43 K/BB ratio across 101 2/3 innings."

*crickets*

:image capture of stat line in cuba:

http://i.imgur.com/NWY2h.jpg

...also he was supposedly 17, not 18, when he was doing that. then again he was allegedly born on Jan 1st, too. so...yeah.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:55pm — 10man

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

7m is a heck of a lot of money for an 18 year old, but then again, they will not be allowed to spend that much after this year so might as well make that gamble. who can say for sure that it will NOT pay off big in the future? nobody really knows.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 9:03pm — superjimmer

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

Exactly. Agreed on all points - especially the spending change after this year.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:47pm — superjimmer

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

Well another bad move, by the shittiest GM team we've ever had. Whatever will we do? We are the geniuses - lets have a dinner in our honor. Who are these idiots? Brian Cashman studied Theo's methodology and changed the winningest and most storied franchise in history. But WE KNOW BETTER!! Theo, you baboon!! We all wanted to spend $250MM on fat/aging 1b-men but $7M for an 18 yr old LHP who was bid on by 10 teams (reportedly) is wasteful. I'm glad I don't work for you f#ckers!!!! :D

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:50pm — Rob G.

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

yeah, you've summed up my offseason feelings perfectly. :)

don't mind the move at all, just wish it wasn't a major league deal taking up a 40-man spot for a guy that won't see the majors for at least 3 years.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:53pm — crunch

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

at the very least, this signing should show people that stats aren't everything even to the supposed "new school" cuz this has to be a pure-stuff/prospecting/projection sign. his numbers are ass and he just got paid like a #1-5 draft pick.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 7:54pm — Rob G.

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

I imagine most know that the pitching line of a 17-year old in the Cuban league are about as important as spring training and high school numbers.

it's worth mentioning, but not worth making decisions over...

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 8:00pm — crunch

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

yeah, you just generally see that going the way of ungodly good numbers, not excusing poor numbers.

that said, he was playing against a lot of 25-35 year olds. some of those guys could easily be AA/AAA talent in any given season.

it's hard to find a single upside in his numbers besides a HR comparative stats like HR/IP...etc.

ultimately, 7m spread over 5 years isn't a big deal. the roster spot thing might suck for 2-3 years before/if he would naturally earn his way onto the 40. meh...

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 8:38pm — Dusty Baylor

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

+1 Rob...well said.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 8:00pm — superjimmer

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

I know - mostly blowing steam . . . But short of some magic atomizer that creates super cheap, no-risk, superstars in year one of their prime. I don't think Theo/Hoyer can do anything right now that isn't subject to idiotic criticism. It's a simple frickin concept. OVERSPEND on potential, which is cheaper and you can stock up on. Period. A "BAD" contract at this level is $7MM . . fine. cubs can afford that. And it's smart money. Yeah the ML contract looks shitty but beggars cannot be choosers and if that's what the kid wanted to sign with Chicago. Well there you have it. Also I assume fucking Theo/Hoyer really like him, and have seen some film and talked to some of Kevin Goldstein's scouts.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 8:03pm — crunch

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

i don't think criticising giving a guy with these numbers a pro contract for 7m is far off base:

http://i.imgur.com/NWY2h.jpg

beyond that, he doesn't have a single ++ aspect of his play that you look for in the typical talent getting that kind of contract. this one should expect criticism.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 8:28pm — superjimmer

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

Well I disagree completely. Contenders overpay at the trade deadline cause they need a reliever etc. Builders overpay at the foundational level to build assets. Every business does it. Startup costs, prime real estate, whatever. We need talent and a $7MM org. #6 prospect without using a draft slot is cheap.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 8:33pm — crunch

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

it's going to be criticized on a number of levels.

first of all, this is a major signing of a guy who has shown nothing numbers-wise. this is a pure scouting sign with a roster spot + top draft money.

this is a pure scouting signing. this will come as weird or out-of-character to some. it's not to me, though, because a couple of years ago theo gave 20 year old, no-power, all-field jose iglesias a 4-year 8.5m pro deal.

second, the guy's stuff is missing a "woah" pitch and there's concern about both his mechanics and the quality of his off-speed stuff.

it will far from kill/sink the team, but it's not a deal that's going to impress many.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 8:46pm — superjimmer

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

Well he's my favorite Cub! ;)

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 8:48pm — crunch

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

hehe...i think most people would "whatever" the deal if he didn't have to eat a roster space on the 40 for 2-3 years. even if he's overpaid, it's a million or 2...so whatever on that mark.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 8:49pm — 10man

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

oh well there you go now. Theo should not sign anybody unless it impresses many, cause we all know that's why he does his job: to impress many.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 8:53pm — crunch

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

i have no idea why "impressing" is the most important part of that rant.

it's obviously not why theo-corp signed him because very few are impressed and other teams aren't impressed enough to match or top the deal.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 8:23am — Dusty Baylor

Re: Cubs Sign a Cuban, But Not That One

Hendry would be getting crucified for this signing. That's the real point to be made.

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