Cespedes Was Overrated, Soler is the New Flavor of the Month

I was trying to get my prospect list-mania article up and then Firefox ate half my work. I'll save it for a future date. In the meantime, now that the A's have signed outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to a 4/$36M deal, I'm comfortable calling him totally overrated. Jorge Soler is the real prize of the Cuban "draft class" and the guy the Cubs should be pursuing. I'm kidding around of course, Cespedes would have been a nice get for the Cubs, but it was not meant to be. The latest report was that the Cubs were now stepping up their pursuit of Soler with a number of $27.5M being thrown out there to try and land him. That report is from the same guy that said Marlins were the clear frontrunner for Cespedes as of yesterday, so salt meet grain. Of course, if I understand this correctly, Soler hasn't been declared eligible yet nor established residency, so certainly more teams will be rumored to be involved once that all falls in line. The last I heard on the timetable was to expect something around the start of the season.

Baseball Prospectus put up their top 101 major league prospects. On the topic of Soler, Goldstein says he'd rank him #38/#39 depending if you count Cespedes as a prospect. As for the Cubs, Brett Jackson at #44, Javier Baez at #66 and Anthony Rizzo at #75. Former Cub Hak-Ju Lee at #65 on his list.

Thanks for all the feedback on the survey over the weeked, a lot of good ideas in there and a lot of nice complements as well.

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Cubs News
Submitted by Rob G. on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 2:37pm
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Comments

Submitted by shlenny
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 2:57pm

For 9M per year, he only has to be above average in order for this to be good deal, and if so, the A's will trade him for three more prospects.

Submitted by Tony S.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 8:53pm

Very good points. And totally sounds like what the Cubs should have done, as a minimum.

I mean, fucking Oakland?!? I thought that was a typo at first. And by definition, there was no bidding war if the guy agreed to Oakland, because they don't win bidding wars.

Only thing I can fathom, he (Ces) was scared off by the Windy City, and when his agent told TheHoyStein, that's when they suddenly weren't interested anymore and focused on Soler. Sun + Playing Time are the only things that make sense to me...?

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 9:02pm

4 years was the key. Report was they were asking for either 4 year deals or 8-10 year deals. He's hoping to cash in on another good deal at Age 30 rather than hitting the market again at age 32.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 2:57pm

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.p...

Re: Soler
Kevin Goldstein: Classic RF profile. Tons of raw power, good arm, good overall athlete. Would be single digit pick in the draft.

25-27.5 million.

Re: Vogelbach's weight
Kevin Goldstein: Nobody is going to care about the weight if he mashes. The problem is, like any 1B prospect, he HAS to mash, or he's just not much of a prospect.

Re: Baez at SS
Kevin Goldstein: It's way less than 50%. Maybe 10% at best. He's a 3B, maybe 2B in the end.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 3:31pm

http://danny-knobler.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/...

Submitted by Old and Blue
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 3:42pm

Goldstein doesn't like Szczur, looking at the tweet box.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 3:59pm

neither does Law

Submitted by Charlie
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 4:32pm

Nobody knows what Szczur is going to do yet. He's done great for playing his first years dedicated to ball. Doesn't necessarily mean he'll get better and doesn't mean he won't get better. I'm sure they just don't want to talk him up and then potentially look bad--most prospects don't make it to the majors anyway, so a bet against is always a safer bet.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 4:02pm

look at worst positions last year

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php...

remarkably Cubs aren't mentioned other than Rizzo was part of Padres 1b crew. Fukudome mentioned for his time with Indians.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 4:04pm

Heckler did one for Cubs

https://p.twimg.com/AlkHKUCCAAAYQYi.jpg

Submitted by Jim Hickmans Bat
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 4:12pm

That pic is fucken awesome.

Submitted by Ryno
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 5:52pm

Incredible... +1

Submitted by Old and Blue
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 4:13pm

I think it would be funny if Soler got more thn Cespedes.

Submitted by DavidP
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 4:55pm

I think it is possible that Soler gets more than Cespedes. I suspect that Cespedes hurt his market price by insisting on free agency after the contract ends, which he reportedly demanded from every team.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 4:57pm

the only way Soler gets more is if it's a 10-year deal, which isn't happening.

Cespedes is essentially major league ready, Soler has 2-3 years of minor league time that you're not gonna pay more than a couple million for.

can't imagine it would top 6/30 for Soler

Submitted by crunch
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:11pm

wonder what the cubs want to do with randy wells...

also,
"Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reports that the Cubs are interested in signing right-hander Ramon Ortiz to a minor league contract."

also also, derek holland needs to be on TV more...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8WffdHiLzo

Submitted by Tony S.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 9:02pm

That was like the ol 96er...

Started out good, got kinda sick to my stomach, and I couldn't finish it

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:30pm

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospect...

says Concepcion would be #19 on their Cubs rankings between Reggie Golden Jae-Hoon Ha.

The 19-year-old stands out more with his advanced feel for pitching than he does for his pure stuff. His fastball ranges from 86-92 mph and his curveball ranges from inconsistent to solid. "If everything works out," one scout said, "maybe he becomes Randy Wolf."

7M dollars people...

Submitted by The Joe
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:34pm

I sometimes read MLBTR to feel better about myself, but I appreciated this exchange:

Josh Batelli: "People forgot one thing: Never count out Billy Beane on ANYTHING."

michael: "Except winning."

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:36pm

well-played michael of the Internet

Submitted by Tony S.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 9:03pm

Actually LOL'd

+1

Submitted by Jim Hickmans Bat
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 7:25pm

Well, Randy Wolf in his prime would certainly be worth $7MM in today's market. Team Theo have correctly calculated that lefty pitchers are more valuable in Wrigley than righties, so the only negative I see with the Concepcion signing is the 40-man slot aspect, that seems kind of dumb.

Also, why the lack of interest at BA on Reggie Golden? The guy mashes, big-time. Sure, there are still question marks, but the #18 prospect in the Cubs system? No way. I'd have him closer to 11 or 12.

If I recall, AZP is pretty high on Golden, and I'm pretty confident he's seen Reggie play a lot more than have anyone at BA.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 7:27pm

probably cause Golden came into camp out of shape last year and strikes out a ton. .240 BA in the minors is not really promising.

Submitted by tem99
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 7:45pm

In his other prospects to watch column Keith Law was actually fairly complementary of Golden. Perhaps it was a bit of damning with faint praise but he was impressed with how Golden made adjustments over the course of the year recognizing off speed stuff.

Submitted by Jim Hickmans Bat
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 7:56pm

One year Rob. He also posted a 420 SLG as a 19-yo in his first pro season. I just think there's more promise there than a #18 prospect ranking would suggest. I thought the low minors, teenager prospects were supposed to be rated primarily on ceiling, and not early results?

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 8:02pm

each guy/publication is going to rate them on their own subjective criteria...

a 25.6% K rate in Boise is particularly troubling for me, that's a lot of swing and miss for a guy that's 5-10". I know he projects for some power, but I don't think it's easy 30 HR power that could justify that many K's.

But yes, it's early...hopefully he's taking it more seriously and will come into camp in shape.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:33pm

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/Whither...

Cubs deny it, but it's a pretty loaded denial

“I have never heard of a done deal of moving home games to the 'Cell,” said Dennis Culloton, a spokesman for the Ricketts family

odd way of phrasing it...

allegedly if they find money to renovate Wrigley, that could be the plan.

Submitted by crunch
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:46pm

if the evil ex-president-still-president-but-technically-sub-president can push through the renovation deal there's a chance it may not be completed by opening day, but the team would not be happy about losing revenue so if it is the case i'd imagine it'd be a short-term possibility rather than a year-long reality.

they want to dig up 1/4 of the field to build underground space...amongst other things.

Submitted by John Beasley
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:50pm

I wouldn't mind it for a season. I could actually take the grill with me, rather than paying out the ass for sub-standard bar food. The Cell is a better option than Miller Park. And if it's better for Wrigley in the long run, so be it.

Plus I know it would piss off Hawk Harrelson, so that's a good thing.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:55pm

loss of revenue from playing at the Cell would tie in nicely with Cubs rebuilding effort and lower payrolls the next 2 years...

piss off a lot of folks, but if it means the Cubs win 86 or more games from that point on, I certainly can live with it. Sucks for the old timers though...

Submitted by crunch
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:59pm

speaking of pissing off folks...wait til the cubs get the city to pay for part of the renovation...again.

Submitted by jacos
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 7:05pm

When did city pay for Wrigley renovation?

Submitted by crunch
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 7:11pm

oh yeah, they never got their amusement tax raise/redistribution. my bad. they just got new support for it from the new mayor in town.

Submitted by jacos
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 7:21pm

The Cubs actually deserve some city and state help, as they are the #1 attraction in Illinois.
F' Reinsdorf and the Cell.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:40pm

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php...

Submitted by crunch
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 6:49pm

pepper hastings! ha. that's a name that hasn't shown itself in years.

also, neat about KC being the only team that couldn't get a fan to send in a number. fwiw, KC had the highest MLB payroll in 1990...all $23m of it...lulz.

Submitted by Tony S.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 9:19pm

That's badass, thanks Rob

Submitted by The Joe
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 9:26pm

Wow, that twitter link makes the Soler signing sound like a done deal...

Submitted by Cubster
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 9:27pm

Trib's Dave Van Dyke article sounds like the Cubs on the verge of signing Soler... not sure if I'm reading too much into his phraseology:

When the winter began, there were three major Cubans who could become free agents, and the Cubs appear to have landed two of them , although not the top-rated one.

The Cubs are expected to add 19-year-old outfielder Jorge Soler after acquiring 19-year-old pitcher Gerardo Concepcion, according to multiple reports from the Dominican Republic, where Soler is staying.

Concepcion was signed earlier, although the Cubs have not announced it. Soler is waiting for official clearance from MLB before being declared a free agent, although he can be signed.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball...

Submitted by The Joe
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 9:36pm

jinx, buy me a hooker

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 9:49pm

Seems a bit misleading

Submitted by jacos
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 9:55pm

Hopefully a mystery team won't come in an eclipse the Cubs.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 11:20pm

someone tweeted that the Score has confirmed the report...take that for what it's worth.

Still confused by it all since he hasn't established residency or any of those other hoops that Cespedes went through.

one report was 3-4 year deal in the 27.5M range (egads). That better not include a get out of jail free card like Cespedes deals does.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 11:26pm

Goldstein seems to believe it as well.

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Goldstein

answered my questions too...

They just agree to. Agent did same w/ Maya, Hechavarria. RT @Hopjake: @Kevin_Goldstein how can the Cubs sign him when he not FA?

I believe he has agreed, just can't officially sign yet. RT @davidrelliott: @Kevin_Goldstein Sarcasm on Soler? Or you think he IS a Cub?

and more likely a 3-4 year deal, but unlike Cespedes won't be allowed to become a free agent. Cubs will still have him for the full 6 years of major league service time.

Submitted by Jim Hickmans Bat
on Mon, 02/13/2012 - 11:27pm

Goldstein says its a done deal now too, so yeah, I think it's time to get excited about this signing.......he says it's a 4-year deal but NOT with accruing service time, NOR does he gain free agency at the end of the 4 years. So it's akin to other Latin signings, Cespedes is the exception.

Apparently, Soler's agent did similar deals with other Latin players in the past. Cubs and Soler agree to deal, they just wait on residency to formalize it.

KLaw puts Soler as the Cubs #2 behind BJax, Goldstein puts Soler #1. I think I'd be comfortable putting him at #4 behind BJax, Rizzo and Baez, but regardless, it looks like we just added a top 50 prospect to the system, bravo Team Theo!

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