Get Excited for Your 70 Win Cubs

The blog "Dodger Sims" ran a bunch of simulations using a variety of player projection forecasts. And what's the prediction for 2012?

to the tune of low to mid 70's win totals.

Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA projections came up with something in the vicinity of 74-76 wins I believe and 4th place as well. We can probably argue over a win or two here, but at least heading into the season, it's clear the NL Central is the haves (Cardinals, Reds, Brewers) and the have-nots (Cubs, Pirates and Astros) with varying degrees of luck and injuries to determine the final order.

As much as I support Jedstein and what I think their plan is, it will make following the team in 2012 just about as fun as 2010 and 2011 were, which was just slightly above "not at all" for me.

***

Not much else to report in the land of Cubsville, players are slowly filtering into camp and you can catch some photos at "Boys of Spring". Jorge Soler to the Cubs report seemed to jump the gun considerably as now just about everyone but the Marlins seems interested. It'll just come down to how much is someone willing to pay and it very well may turn out that the $27.5M the Cubs reportedly are willing to offer will do the trick.

Finally, Hall of Fame catcher and Cubs killer Gary Carter(112 OPS+ for his career against Cubs and 41 HR's, second only to 45 HR's he hit against Phillies) passed away today from brain cancer. Here's a clip of the final hit of his career that just happened to be off the Cubs and Mike Morgan. Harry Caray and Steve Stone with the call.

Enjoy the holiday weekend....

Comments

Its not just Carpenter - its a PNTBL, too. We do not have another guy that throws 100mph. He's not a kid, but the arrow was pointing up on this guy as our future closer.

To the Red Sox, this is obviously Papplebon II to them.

Ugh.

Levine on Espn

Cubs BoSox settled themselves, no Bud involved
Larry Luchino got his way

Cubs have not sat w garzas agent yet
Theo does not want to give ntc, does not believe in them

kiss Garza goodbye

It probably took a little bit of time because of the lack of precedent. But it certainly wasn't because of any animosity.

"We were actually looking at the people involved on the emails last night and we're all really good friends. This process clearly didn't change that. There was no animosity. It was just a process that took a long time in part because we had a lot of things going on."

Even though the above quote is from Levine's blog. On the radio with Waddle/Silvy, BL implied that the reason it took so long was because Larry Lucchino was being bitter and vengeful and was hell bent on making Theo pay as much as he could extract for leaving the sinking ship based on last season's conclusion in Boston.

I recently read the book, 'Feeding the Monster' (http://sethmnookin.com/feeding-the-monster), which is the Redsox history leading to the Henry/Werner, (Lucchino) purchase through about the 2005 season. The relationship between Lucchino and Theo has been continually strained because Lucchino tends to be paranoid when the Boston press portrays any of his 'team' (Theo) making subtle comments which he continually interpreted as throwing him under the proverbial bus. Of course that was a two way street open to interpretation when Theo felt he didn't deserve flak.

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  • "According to FOX Sports' Jon Morosi, Tim Tebow's baseball workout Tuesday in Los Angeles will be attended by scouts from "roughly half" of the 30 major league teams."

    "One scout told ESPN.com last week that Tebow's swing is so long it might "take out the front row." That's not a good thing."

    crunch 45 min 56 sec ago view
  • MyrtleBeachPelicans [email protected]

    The #MBpelicans and @Cubs have extended their PDC through 2020!
    ----
    Carolina League getting 2 new teams too.

    QuietMan 1 hour 4 min ago view
  • CF WAR is ridiculous...billy hamilton is pulling a 3.0 WAR somehow...and managed a 2.0 WAR last year (even though he missed a month of the season)...and a 3.7 WAR in 2014.

    yeah, a lot depends on how one is doing relative to others at a given position, but WAR is common used (right or wrong) as a blanket comparing all kinds of players.

    trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo.

    crunch 1 hour 10 min ago view
  • Rob G. 1 hour 43 min ago view
  • Don't know if Cubs will recover from "spanking" Gordo

    http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/cubs-sent-home-...

    jacos 4 hours 16 min ago view
  • 2nd in defensive WAR, NL.

    6th in NL in RBI

    Go complain about something else, like, "they never play good against the good teams", or some other shit.

    The E-Man 16 hours 42 min ago view
  • Addy really has trouble breaking through .250 BA -- after his hot streak got him to .251, he has gone 1-for-17.

    billybucks 17 hours 58 min ago view
  • Thank goodness for Jansen's 2 WP on Friday -- otherwise this would have been a sweep.

    billybucks 18 hours 42 min ago view
  • There seems to be a direct correlation with overconfidence in the Cubs offense against mediocre/young pitchers and really poor offense against mediocre/young pitchers. So, let's fear the Pirate pitchers!

    billybucks 18 hours 42 min ago view
  • Rizzo due for a power surge -- one HR in August so far. He truly does hit them in bunches.

    billybucks 18 hours 44 min ago view
  • Sometimes I'm not as supportive of Cahill as maybe I should be. There, I said it.

    Jackstraw 18 hours 47 min ago view
  • Rough 8th inning all around -- HBP, Cahill error, Javy's poor decision.

    Oh well - given that the Cubs didn't look like they were going to score, it's better to lose in 9 innings, save the bullpen and get changed for the PJ trip home.

    billybucks 18 hours 47 min ago view
  • Baez still learning

    jacos 19 hours 15 min ago view
  • heyward with his 3rd multi-hit game since the all-star break (all in august)...2nd in the past 3 games during his 7 game hitting streak.

    he's gone from flirting with a sub-.300 ob% to nearing .310 ob% in 3 games (1 game was just a 1 for 1 pinch hit appearance). all 5 hits in the past 3 games have come in a row...neat.

    crunch 20 hours 19 min ago view
  • stewart with 7Ks through 3ip...of course.

    that 10-13 mph difference in his fastball/change is working today...and they're swinging at his crappy slider.

    crunch 21 hours 25 min ago view
  • brock stewart...steven brault...fun times for the cubs hitters vs allegedly competitive teams...maybe.

    crunch 22 hours 14 min ago view