Get Excited for Your 70 Win Cubs

The blog "Dodger Sims" ran a bunch of simulations using a variety of player projection forecasts. And what's the prediction for 2012?

to the tune of low to mid 70's win totals.

Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA projections came up with something in the vicinity of 74-76 wins I believe and 4th place as well. We can probably argue over a win or two here, but at least heading into the season, it's clear the NL Central is the haves (Cardinals, Reds, Brewers) and the have-nots (Cubs, Pirates and Astros) with varying degrees of luck and injuries to determine the final order.

As much as I support Jedstein and what I think their plan is, it will make following the team in 2012 just about as fun as 2010 and 2011 were, which was just slightly above "not at all" for me.

***

Not much else to report in the land of Cubsville, players are slowly filtering into camp and you can catch some photos at "Boys of Spring". Jorge Soler to the Cubs report seemed to jump the gun considerably as now just about everyone but the Marlins seems interested. It'll just come down to how much is someone willing to pay and it very well may turn out that the $27.5M the Cubs reportedly are willing to offer will do the trick.

Finally, Hall of Fame catcher and Cubs killer Gary Carter(112 OPS+ for his career against Cubs and 41 HR's, second only to 45 HR's he hit against Phillies) passed away today from brain cancer. Here's a clip of the final hit of his career that just happened to be off the Cubs and Mike Morgan. Harry Caray and Steve Stone with the call.

Enjoy the holiday weekend....

Comments

Its not just Carpenter - its a PNTBL, too. We do not have another guy that throws 100mph. He's not a kid, but the arrow was pointing up on this guy as our future closer.

To the Red Sox, this is obviously Papplebon II to them.

Ugh.

Levine on Espn

Cubs BoSox settled themselves, no Bud involved
Larry Luchino got his way

Cubs have not sat w garzas agent yet
Theo does not want to give ntc, does not believe in them

kiss Garza goodbye

It probably took a little bit of time because of the lack of precedent. But it certainly wasn't because of any animosity.

"We were actually looking at the people involved on the emails last night and we're all really good friends. This process clearly didn't change that. There was no animosity. It was just a process that took a long time in part because we had a lot of things going on."

Even though the above quote is from Levine's blog. On the radio with Waddle/Silvy, BL implied that the reason it took so long was because Larry Lucchino was being bitter and vengeful and was hell bent on making Theo pay as much as he could extract for leaving the sinking ship based on last season's conclusion in Boston.

I recently read the book, 'Feeding the Monster' (http://sethmnookin.com/feeding-the-monster), which is the Redsox history leading to the Henry/Werner, (Lucchino) purchase through about the 2005 season. The relationship between Lucchino and Theo has been continually strained because Lucchino tends to be paranoid when the Boston press portrays any of his 'team' (Theo) making subtle comments which he continually interpreted as throwing him under the proverbial bus. Of course that was a two way street open to interpretation when Theo felt he didn't deserve flak.

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  • crunch 5 hours 15 min ago view
  • My guy Addy

    jacos 5 hours 16 min ago view
  • oh, another a.russell HR...whatever.

    crunch 5 hours 30 min ago view
  • Dylan Cease throwing gas tonight for the Emeralds. In first three innings, has hit 100 mph six times, averaging 98 mph

    Eric S 5 hours 49 min ago view
  • Can I get a gif of Joe West's jowls waving as he chews gum?

    /Asking for a friend

    jacos 6 hours 12 min ago view
  • my gawd...that castillo-to-bryant pickoff was a thing of beauty. the knock on him in the minors being slow out of the crouch is looking less like a thing.

    crunch 6 hours 25 min ago view
  • bless your heart. *pinches cheeks*

    crunch 11 hours 21 min ago view
  • real shame I missed this week's episode of The Crunch Reporter.

    It's highly unusual.

    It does matter a little.

    It matters much less than you think.

     

     

    Rob G. 11 hours 23 min ago view
  • four winds field is awesome. it's crazy how minor league parks have "grown up" since the 80s/90s and that park was one of the late-80s models that showed a low-capacity ballpark could look like you're at something other than a highschool baseball game.

    crunch 12 hours 29 min ago view
  • On another topic....I returned to South Bend last night for the 2nd time this season (still haven't tried either the deep-fried mac & cheese sandwich nor "The Porknado", as the drive home is over an hour and that could get ugly), and was pleasantly surprised to find D. Underwood pitching in a rehab start. He looked good -- although, to be fair, these are low-A hitters -- fastball consistently at 94-95 (if the SB scoreboard is to be believed -- several pitches were clocked in the 30s...) and with good location.

    billybucks 13 hours 37 min ago view
  • he gains nothing, no advantage, no saving of resources, nothing...there is not a cost/benefit tradeoff...him letting the running game go on around him for others to control isn't gaining him an advantage elsewhere. it's putting him at a disadvantage even if it's not cashed in with a run.

    crunch 16 hours 18 min ago view
  • And out of respect for the rest of TCR, I'm done on this. I'm sure I'm not the only one in the other camp, but time to let it go. (Until the next Lester start. I kid.)

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 16 hours 21 min ago view
  • He is putting himself at a disadvanage. But how much of one relative to the rest of his game? He's not Justin Germano -- he's inarguably one of the best SPs in baseball, issue or not. It would be more of thing to discuss ad nauseum if it constantly caused him to give up runs and lose games. But it doesn't.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 16 hours 30 min ago view
  • shouting down my points about lester with "well, it didn't hurt" is like saying it doesn't matter if a guy starts out walking 3 guys every inning as long it's followed by a K and a double play.

    it's like elevating ERA and wins to a high level while ignoring what it took to get there.

    crunch 16 hours 36 min ago view
  • I'm asking how much it has hurt Lester and the Cubs this year. Do you have that answer?

    I legitimately don't recall you answering that quesion, apart from the condescending silliness you just posted. So if you did answer specifically about the impact of Lester's issue, I'd like to re-read it. Thanks.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 16 hours 49 min ago view
  • if runner = on base and pitcher = j.lester then lead = large

    if lead = large then probability of extra base on following hit > average of mean

    okay, enough of that silliness...

    ...you can read more on the thread i copy/pasted this from the last time you decided you needed to talk to me about me.

    crunch 16 hours 56 min ago view