Cubs Send Aaron Kurcz to Red Sox to Still Not Complete Theo Compensation

Back when Chris Carpenter was announced as being sent over to the Boston Red Sox for Theo Epstein, I mentioned that the deal still can't properly be evaluated because there were still 2 players to be named later involved. There was some talk that it was just a logistic move, that the Red Sox had to send a player  to the Cubs besides an executive and the two players would be non-news. Well that turned out to be B.S. Today the Cubs announced they're sending RHP Aaron Kurcz to the Red Sox and we still don't know who the Cubs are getting. Temples were built in less time.

As for Kurcz, he's hardly a nobody, a matter of fact I was going to put him around #15 on my prospect list I was hoping to get out for Monday. He was a teammate of Bryce Harper at College of Southern Nevada, but beyond that coincidence, he's a 21-year old power righty reliever with a 9.9 whiff rate to go with a 3.7 BB/9 ratio. He might not be the quality of Chris Carpenter, but certainly not someone to just dismiss.

As the baseball world turns...

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Cubs pitchers gave up 16 hits and walked six vs. the Diamondbacks. Jeff Beliveau walked two batters with the bases loaded to force in two runs and then served up a grand slam to Paul Goldschmidt in a seven-run seventh.

didn't take the demotion too well

DeWitt hit on hand, X-rays pending. Stewart out a few days with sore quad, Barney d2D with tightness in left side.

Bunting Final 4 tomorrow
Coleman vs. Maholm
DeJesus vs. W. Castillo

So here's my question: I feel like #15 on a prospect list IS nothing but I've never sat down and studied prospects turned into decent to good in the majors. Outside of the 1 in a 1000 chance teams get, is there some sort of study looking at how far down the prospect list you can go before the chances of someone ever being worth anything to a team fizzles out (again outside of the rare event)?

I don't know about the study and I doubt anyone will end up too upset over 2 guys whose upside is late-inning reliever. But also, probably a better chance they have some semblance of a major league career over a starting pitcher or barely top 10 position player, since they are relievers with allegedly good stuff.

if that makes any sense....

the ceiling may not be as high, but the floor is probably higher too. Let's compare to Flaherty who I would probably had around the #10-#12 range. While he still could end up being a decent regular, I could also see him doing absolutely nothing of note in the majors. While Carpenter and Kurcz would surprise me a little if they dont' spend a few years in the pen and quite possibly solid late inning relievers.

Yeah the reliever thing makes sense for sure and I've always felt overpaying for relievers vs getting them from the minors is a bad idea. I've just seen a lot of prospect lists where I've felt like once you get past #10 or something what's the point in talking about them. I'd just be interested to see an actual look at what those prospect #s tend to mean relative to the majors.

Doesn't this seem to suggest that the Cubs might be getting a player back that they sort of like, albeit not a player with a very high ceiling? If that's not the case, I don't understand what's going on.

you would think, but who the fuck knows at this point.

Aside from baseball reasons, it would be AWESOME if the Cubs got a guy worth a damn. Not because it would make the Cubs better, but ultimately JUST to watch that BoSox journalist have an epic spaz-out! Here's hoping whoever we get is a player for that reason alone . . .

top 20 list of Red Sox prospects

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/13/263...

whomever the Cubs get, Nick Cafardo will complain about it.

T-O-R starting pitcher prospects have more value than do late-inning relief prospects, BUT, a bullpen is VERY important, and it should be possible to build the pen on the cheap from within the organization.

However, after trading Andrew Cashner to SD for Anthony Rizzo and sending Chris Carpenter to Boston as the front-end of Theo Compensation, Aaron Kurcz, Kevin Rhoderick, and Tony Zych were the three young near-MLB ready power RH relievers left in the Cubs system.

So losing both Chris Carpenter AND Aaron Kurcz as Theo Compensation is not good.

Unless we get a power pitcher relief prospect in return from Boston?

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 6:38am — SheffieldCornelia

Unless we get a power pitcher relief prospect in return from Boston?

=================================

SHEF: That would be nice, but I kind of doubt it.

The report was that there are three players on the list, and the Red Sox get to choose the player.

That makes it sound to me like the PTBNL might be a choice between the three LHRP on the Sox 40-man roster who are out of minor league options:

Felix Doubront
Andrew Miller
Franklin Morales

And the Cubs get whichever one doesn't make the Red Sox Opening Day roster (which would make it the Red Sox "choice," in that sense).

Agreed. We ended up giving away an awful lot of MPH for a suit.

Would you rather still have Hendry's sports shirt?

That thing was outrageously expensive at times.

I'll happily bet anyone that Theo/Hoyer have a greater impact on the Cubs winning over the next 5-10 years than Carpenter and Kurcz though.

Nonetheless, the Red Sox certainly got 2 useful players out of it.

I agree--I'm happy to shake up the front office and try to get the best guys available there, and I'm thrilled to see the organization take the idea of rebuilding seriously.

This seems like a damn good return on a GM, though. Will the Cubs ever be sending some sort of compensation for Hoyer?

list has been agreed upon, supposed to be taken care of by end of spring training.

"low level minor leaguer" seems to be the only clue, something about not being on the 40-man

to minor league deal

That makes it sound to me like the PTBNL might be a choice between the three LHRP on the Sox 40-man roster who are out of minor league options:

Felix Doubront
Andrew Miller
Franklin Morales
========
Can you provide any insights as to these three? I know most about Andrew Miller because he was in the Cameron Maybin-Miggy Cabrera trade and was supposedly a high end prospect at that time (but has underachieved ever since). I kind of remember Morales from his days with the Rockies. Hopefully Doubront doesn't remind me of Felix Heredia.

hanging out at the SABR conference, apparently grew up a Royals fan.

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  • HAGSAG: I have not seen Joe Nathan out on the field, but he is supposedly at the UAPC. 

    Arizona Phil 1 hour 30 min ago view
  • ERIC S: Best outing I've ever seen from Manny Rondon, and I've seen most of his outings since the Cubs got him from the Angels. 

    M. Rondon is competing with six others (Dylan Cease, Bryan Hudson, Jose Paulino, Pedro Silverio, Jesus Castillo, and Erling Moreno) for a starting slot at Eugene, and (as you can probably tell from the EXST box scores)  the competition has gotten fierce over the last couple of weeks, With the exception of Moreno, the Eugene SP candidates have upped their game lately, and M. Rondon's outing yesterday was especially impressive/dominating. 

    Arizona Phil 1 hour 33 min ago view
  • E-MAN: Pierce Johnsion was mixing a 92-94 MPH fastball with a plus-change-up AND curve, and he threw strike-after-strike-after-strike with all three of his pitches. I believe that was the best command and pitch-efficiency I've ever seen from Johnson, who often pitches from behind in the count and issues too many walks.  

    Of course now he has to avoid a recurrence of the lat strain (whch he has had previously in his career) as well as all of the other miscellaneous physical problems he's had over the last three years (hamstring, quad, back, etc).  

    Arizona Phil 1 hour 42 min ago view
  • PHIL: Any movement on P. Johnsons pitches? What was his "out" pitch? I know he was working on a 4th pitch, so wondering what he is looking like these days. Thanks.

    The E-Man 2 hours 25 min ago view
  • AZ Phil, has Nathan showed up in Mesa yet? Thanks.

    Hagsag 7 hours 11 min ago view
  • Eickhoff looks like a good young pitcher. Lets steal him!

    Hagsag 7 hours 12 min ago view
  • Manny Rondon faced 13 batters ... and got 10 to K. Not a bad day's work.

    Eric S 16 hours 53 min ago view
  • With several other Cubs hitters bailing out on curves today I think overall it wasn't being seen well. It for sure looked silly but a good breaking pitch coming at you and then breaking down isn't the easiest thing to see and has made many hitters look silly. Also Soler should have more walks this year but for quite a few called strikes that were actual balls and even the called strike he bailed on was borderline.

    johann 19 hours 51 min ago view
  • it's not like we're talking about a guy who's never had issues with pitch selection and seeing the ball over here. we're talking about a guy who has some rather legendary swing-and-misses at breaking stuff who's been exploited low. going forward it's worth paying attention to seeing if he can be exploited inside, too. he seriously bailed out of the box on a called strike. sure it was a good curve, but he obviously didn't see that well at all.

    crunch 20 hours 3 min ago view
  • It would seem like he is figuring it out now and it's really coming together. Really happy for him. Joe was really protecting him from the 3rd time through the order, but as you allude to, he is earning trust to go deeper.

    Wondering if has potential to become a #3 pitcher? His current stats certainly support it.

    The E-Man 20 hours 12 min ago view
  • That doesn't count b/c CRUNCH didn't see it on his 60" HDTV 5 times in replay.

    I have seen many players "bail out" when the ball looked like it was gonna hit them.

    Especially with the advent of the splitter and pitchers that can really get the ball to dance. Marmol, Sutter, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Smoltz, Arrietta...

    These guys have made the best bail out only for the ball to come over the plate and be called a strike.

    No shame in that. The same way players whiff hard enough to cause them to drill a hole in the ground from spinning.

    The E-Man 20 hours 17 min ago view
  • a 60" TV with slow-motion replay and multiple looks on that replay helps...a lot...

    it's one thing to shy away like he did the 2nd time, it's another to bail out of the box on a called strike. that happened in the 1st one he pulled away from. he misjudged that one by a foot or so...

    crunch 20 hours 36 min ago view
  • Good Hendricks sure is fun to watch. He was hitting all his corners today and the Phillies couldn't do anything with his changeup.

    johann 21 hours 12 min ago view
  • Bryant and I believe Zobrist both did that too.

    johann 21 hours 29 min ago view
  • Soler BB acumen and plate awareness is excellent. Not unusual for even the best players to react as if they were about to hit them, "even though they weren't that close" from your vantage point sitting on your deck, or wherever.

    The E-Man 21 hours 31 min ago view
  • soler vs inside breaking balls is scary.

    he's had 2 inside curve balls today where he reacted as if they were about to hit him even though they weren't that close...one he bailed out of the box on, it was a called strike.

    crunch 21 hours 49 min ago view