Fun With Small Sample Sizes
After 10 games, the 2012 Cubs are what we thought they were, a poor offensive team with moments of intriguing starting pitching. Here are some rather meaningless numbers I stumbled across...
Cubs 2012 P/PA - 3.71 (Team Leader: I Stewart 4.19)
Cubs 2011 P/PA - 3.74 (C. Pena 4.13)
Cubs 2012 BB/PA - 0.79 (J. Baker 1.76)
Cubs 2011 BB/PA - 0.71 (C. Pena 1.67)
Cubs 2012 SB/CS - 8/11 for 72.7% success rate (pace of 129/178)
Cubs 2011 SB/CS - 69/92 for 75% success rate
Cubs 2012 Offense - 4 Runs Per Game, 10th in NL
Cubs 2011 Offense - 4.04 R/G, 8th in NL
The Good: Clevenger (1.500 OPS), LaHair (1.119), Castro (.831)
The Okay: DeJesus (.799), Johnson (.779), Stewart (.749)
The Not Okay: Barney (.669), Soriano (.655)
The Awful: Soto (.538), Baker (.448), Mather (.282), Byrd (.212), DeWitt (.191)
Aramis Ramirez: 114/179/171 0 HR, 5 RBI, 5 R
Ian Stewart: 242/342/424 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R
Tyler Colvin: 350/381/600 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 R
Soriano 2012: .313/.343/.313 5.7 BB%, 22.9 K%, .400 BABIP, 43.2 O-Swing% (swings at pitches outside zone), 54.3 O-Contact% (contact on pitches outside of zone when swinging)
Soriano 2011: .244/.289/.469 5.3 BB%, 22.2 K%, .266 BABIP, 43.9 O-Swing%, 60.4 O-Contact%
Cubs 2012 Pitchers: 2.63 K/BB ratio, 1.22 WHIP, 8.08 K/9, 1.022 HR/9
Cubs 2011 Pitchers: 2.11 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP, 7.68 K/9, 1.017 HR/9
Cubs 2012 Run Prevention: 4.80 R/G, 14th in NL
Cubs 2011 Run Prevention: 4.67 R/G, 14th in NL
Cubs 2012 Starters: 4.23 ERA, 9th in NL, 3.73 K/BB, .225 BAA
Cubs 2011 Starters: 4.79 ERA, 16th in NL, 2.12 K/BB, .276 BAA
Cubs 2012 Relievers: 5.47 ERA, 16th in NL, 1.53 K/BB, .250 BAA
Cubs 2011 Relievers: 3.51 ERA, 8th in NL, 2.09 K/BB, .233 BAA
The Good: Russell (0.00 ERA, 4/1 K/BB), Garza (1.23, 14/3), Dolis (1.80, 1/3), Dempster (1.88, 15/6), Samardzija (3.95 13/1)
The Okay: Lopez (4.50, 1/2), Volstad (4.95, 10/2)
The Not Okay:
The Awful: Camp (6.50, 4/0), Castillo (7.36, 5/2), Marmol (8.10, 4/4), Wood (11.57, 4/3), Maholm (13.50, 4/3)
bless your heart. *pinches cheeks*
real shame I missed this week's episode of The Crunch Reporter.
It's highly unusual.
It does matter a little.
It matters much less than you think.
four winds field is awesome. it's crazy how minor league parks have "grown up" since the 80s/90s and that park was one of the late-80s models that showed a low-capacity ballpark could look like you're at something other than a highschool baseball game.
On another topic....I returned to South Bend last night for the 2nd time this season (still haven't tried either the deep-fried mac & cheese sandwich nor "The Porknado", as the drive home is over an hour and that could get ugly), and was pleasantly surprised to find D. Underwood pitching in a rehab start. He looked good -- although, to be fair, these are low-A hitters -- fastball consistently at 94-95 (if the SB scoreboard is to be believed -- several pitches were clocked in the 30s...) and with good location.
he gains nothing, no advantage, no saving of resources, nothing...there is not a cost/benefit tradeoff...him letting the running game go on around him for others to control isn't gaining him an advantage elsewhere. it's putting him at a disadvantage even if it's not cashed in with a run.
And out of respect for the rest of TCR, I'm done on this. I'm sure I'm not the only one in the other camp, but time to let it go. (Until the next Lester start. I kid.)
He is putting himself at a disadvanage. But how much of one relative to the rest of his game? He's not Justin Germano -- he's inarguably one of the best SPs in baseball, issue or not. It would be more of thing to discuss ad nauseum if it constantly caused him to give up runs and lose games. But it doesn't.
shouting down my points about lester with "well, it didn't hurt" is like saying it doesn't matter if a guy starts out walking 3 guys every inning as long it's followed by a K and a double play.
it's like elevating ERA and wins to a high level while ignoring what it took to get there.
I'm asking how much it has hurt Lester and the Cubs this year. Do you have that answer?
I legitimately don't recall you answering that quesion, apart from the condescending silliness you just posted. So if you did answer specifically about the impact of Lester's issue, I'd like to re-read it. Thanks.
if runner = on base and pitcher = j.lester then lead = large
if lead = large then probability of extra base on following hit > average of mean
okay, enough of that silliness...
...you can read more on the thread i copy/pasted this from the last time you decided you needed to talk to me about me.
Thank you for your answer.
bless your heart.
I don't recall you answering my question about quantifying how it has hurt Lester and the Cubs this season, apart from one guy scoring on a sac fly. Can you direct me to your answer? Thanks.
Lester's personal catcher has an .809 OPS.
we already has this asinine discussion. you didn't like the answer. there's already an answer above you can apply about how a guy goes from 1st base to home on a sac fly that included him stealing 3rd while lester watched from the mound. the fact that the cubs bats, 100% independent of that situation, scored some runs invalidates it as an issue to you. i find that stupid. we will not get anywhere with this. you know we will not get anywhere with this...because we already had this asinine discussion.
it's not about SB...it never was.
jake arrieta being slow to the plate isn't comparable to jon lester not throwing to any base. how the runners read off arrieta isn't anything similar to what a runner is reading off lester.
maybe arrieta could use a personal catcher solely to control his running game...but i doubt it's that important.