Ex-Cub Factor

The phrase "ex-Cub factor" has been thrown around quite a bit. It was
originally coined by writer and Cub fan Ron Berler, who wrote an
article in 1981 stating that since the Yankees of that season had five
ex-Cubs on their roster, they were doomed to lose the World Series if
they got there. He was right -- they lost to the Dodgers in six games.

Up until 2001, the curse of the ex-Cub had been almost
complete. Since the Cubs last won the NL pennant in 1945, only once had
a team with three or more ex-Cubs won the World Series. That was the
1960 Pirates, and Berler even manages to explain that anomaly away in
his article.

In 2001, though, the Arizona Diamondbacks won the championship
with a healthy contingent of ex-Cubs: Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez, Mike
Morgan, and Miguel Batista. It would appear that the curse has been
broken, and Mark Grace even said as much during a post-game interview.
In response, all I can say is it's pretty interesting that the World
Series to which this one has most been compared is the 1960 Series, won
by the Pirates. In both cases, the National League team beat the New
York Yankees in the bottom of the 9th inning of the 7th game of the
Series. Coincidience? Or SOMETHING MORE???

You can now read the entire original Ex-Cub Factor article right here. Special thanks to Ron Berler, and as always to Mark McClusky, for bringing this website to Berler's attention.

2003 Update: How will the ex-Cub factor affect
this year's playoff race? Well, here are the teams in the playoff races
and the ex-Cub contingent on their rosters:

Atlanta (4): Will Cunnane, Matt Franco, Ray King, Greg Maddux
San Francisco (3): Benito Santiago, Tim Worrell, Eric Young
New York Yankees (2): Felix Heredia, Jon Lieber (DL)
Cubs (2): Doug Glanville, Mark Guthrie
Houston (2): Orlando Merced, Jose Vizcaino
Florida (1): Lenny Harris
Boston (1): Bill Mueller
Oakland (1): Micah Bowie (DL)
Minnesota: None

As usual, the Braves look to be in trouble when it comes to
ex-Cubs in the playoffs. Maddux will be on the post-season roster, and
I imagine Franco will be, too. That leaves the two relief pitchers.
Cunnane has been effective in John Smoltz's absence, so he very well
may make the playoff roster. If he does, the Braves are doomed.
Likewise the Giants, who feature ex-Cubs at starting catcher and
closer. Eric Young was acquired as insurance against Ray Durham's
injury. With Durham healthy, Felipe Alou would be wise to leave Young
off the October roster unless he wants to treat fans to a repeat of
last year's heartbreak.

I've been tracking the ex-Cub factor for the past few years,
and Carl Condon has gone back to the earliest days of the World Series
to track The Factor. I have combined the work he and I have done and I
am in the process of making it available on the Historical Ex-Cub Factor page. You'll see that the Curse of the Ex-Cub has held true almost perfectly throughout the years.

Is there a lesson to be learned from this? I think so. If you find your team in a pennant race, RELEASE ANYONE WHO USED TO BE ON THE CUBS. It's really pretty simple. Guys like Shawon Dunston and Mike Morgan might help you get into the playoffs, but you'd better ditch them come playoff time.

2002 UPDATE: Angels (one ex-Cub) defeat Giants (three ex-Cubs) in World Series. Ex-Cub Factor fulfilled for the 20th time.

Recent comments

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  • chap's a FA after this season. i can't imagine him signing a 2-3 year deal...4+ is probably a starting point, though 3 might do it.

    crunch 3 sec ago view
  • Per Patrick Mooney, it's SS Gleyber Torres, RHP Adam Warren, RF Billy McKinney, and CF Rashad Crawford for Aroldis Chapman 

    Arizona Phil 5 min 38 sec ago view
  • That is a hell of a lot if they don't get an extention done. I'm assuming Chapman is going to be the closer with Rondon in the 8th and Strop in the 7th. That sounds great but Rondon #s aren't as good in non-save situations so we'll see how he responds to being the setup man.

    johann 30 min 3 sec ago view
  • I certainly hope he signed an extension. I would have been ok with this package for Miller, it is too much for 2 (well 3, hopefully) of Chapman. Of course, we win the World Series, I will retract this immediately.

    twcoffee 30 min 56 sec ago view
  • @JonHeyman: Yanks and Cubs have a deal. Torres, mckinney, Warren and likely 1 more to NYY.

    CTSteve 43 min 58 sec ago view
  • Rumor McKinney part of package

    jacos 46 min 34 sec ago view
  • I would rather have Ian Happ at second.

    Rob Richardson 1 hour 23 min ago view
  • that is a hell of a lot of talent to shift for a reliever who's gonna get paid top-scale "free agent" type money in 2017+ after a 1/2 year rental for the remainder of 2016.

    crunch 1 hour 36 min ago view
  • Cubs are going to need a 2nd baseman of the future. I'm still not convinced Baez can be that offensively on an everyday basis.

    johann 2 hours 18 min ago view
  • Updating: Per @Joelsherman1, #Cubs-#Yankees trade, if completed, would be Chapman for Torres, Warren and likely two others.

    Can only imagine they'd only give that much up if he's signing an extension. 

    Rob G. 2 hours 33 min ago view
  • The official police report on Chapman:

    https://www.scribd.com/document/292708682/Chapman-...

    You can draw your own conclusions.

    Old and Blue 4 hours 26 min ago view
  • Where is he going to play for the Cubs?

    Rob Richardson 4 hours 53 min ago view
  • That was, ummmm, you know. A joke?

    Old and Blue 4 hours 58 min ago view
  • Even from an on-field perspective, Torres is a 19-year-old beating up High-A pitching who also plays a great SS. Even if he never develops a legit MLB power stroke, he's still an obvious 4-tool guy with a very high floor. Sucks to trade away his next 6-8 years for a closer, albeit a great one.

    John Beasley 6 hours 27 min ago view
  • "Like the Chapman deal for Cubs from on-field POV, wish I didn't now have to feel lousy following an otherwise likable Cubs team." @jonahkeri

    pretty much sums up my feelings

    Rob G. 12 hours 37 min ago view
  • You mean Yankees?

    QuietMan 12 hours 40 min ago view