Ex-Cub Factor

The phrase "ex-Cub factor" has been thrown around quite a bit. It was
originally coined by writer and Cub fan Ron Berler, who wrote an
article in 1981 stating that since the Yankees of that season had five
ex-Cubs on their roster, they were doomed to lose the World Series if
they got there. He was right -- they lost to the Dodgers in six games.

Up until 2001, the curse of the ex-Cub had been almost
complete. Since the Cubs last won the NL pennant in 1945, only once had
a team with three or more ex-Cubs won the World Series. That was the
1960 Pirates, and Berler even manages to explain that anomaly away in
his article.

In 2001, though, the Arizona Diamondbacks won the championship
with a healthy contingent of ex-Cubs: Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez, Mike
Morgan, and Miguel Batista. It would appear that the curse has been
broken, and Mark Grace even said as much during a post-game interview.
In response, all I can say is it's pretty interesting that the World
Series to which this one has most been compared is the 1960 Series, won
by the Pirates. In both cases, the National League team beat the New
York Yankees in the bottom of the 9th inning of the 7th game of the
Series. Coincidience? Or SOMETHING MORE???

You can now read the entire original Ex-Cub Factor article right here. Special thanks to Ron Berler, and as always to Mark McClusky, for bringing this website to Berler's attention.

2003 Update: How will the ex-Cub factor affect
this year's playoff race? Well, here are the teams in the playoff races
and the ex-Cub contingent on their rosters:

Atlanta (4): Will Cunnane, Matt Franco, Ray King, Greg Maddux
San Francisco (3): Benito Santiago, Tim Worrell, Eric Young
New York Yankees (2): Felix Heredia, Jon Lieber (DL)
Cubs (2): Doug Glanville, Mark Guthrie
Houston (2): Orlando Merced, Jose Vizcaino
Florida (1): Lenny Harris
Boston (1): Bill Mueller
Oakland (1): Micah Bowie (DL)
Minnesota: None

As usual, the Braves look to be in trouble when it comes to
ex-Cubs in the playoffs. Maddux will be on the post-season roster, and
I imagine Franco will be, too. That leaves the two relief pitchers.
Cunnane has been effective in John Smoltz's absence, so he very well
may make the playoff roster. If he does, the Braves are doomed.
Likewise the Giants, who feature ex-Cubs at starting catcher and
closer. Eric Young was acquired as insurance against Ray Durham's
injury. With Durham healthy, Felipe Alou would be wise to leave Young
off the October roster unless he wants to treat fans to a repeat of
last year's heartbreak.

I've been tracking the ex-Cub factor for the past few years,
and Carl Condon has gone back to the earliest days of the World Series
to track The Factor. I have combined the work he and I have done and I
am in the process of making it available on the Historical Ex-Cub Factor page. You'll see that the Curse of the Ex-Cub has held true almost perfectly throughout the years.

Is there a lesson to be learned from this? I think so. If you find your team in a pennant race, RELEASE ANYONE WHO USED TO BE ON THE CUBS. It's really pretty simple. Guys like Shawon Dunston and Mike Morgan might help you get into the playoffs, but you'd better ditch them come playoff time.

2002 UPDATE: Angels (one ex-Cub) defeat Giants (three ex-Cubs) in World Series. Ex-Cub Factor fulfilled for the 20th time.

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  • crunch 11 min 23 sec ago view
  • Reports this morning that Marlins' pitching ace Jose Fernandez died in a boating accident - just horrible news.

    Eric S 4 hours 3 min ago view
  • Check out John Arguello at Cubs Den for great analysis & photos from Cubs AZ Instructs

    link

    Arizona Phil 16 hours 18 min ago view
  • soler + hammel for mike trout is pretty much a sure thing. *nods*

    crunch 21 hours 35 min ago view
  • Not an inspired outing by Rondon. Seemingly got ahead of every hitter but had no swing and miss pitch today, slider had no bite.

    Somebody give Soler some smelling salts - yeesh

    Eric S 21 hours 36 min ago view
  • And...now that runner scores on a single...

    The E-Man 21 hours 48 min ago view
  • So where do you think Soler will be traded to this off season?

    jacos 21 hours 49 min ago view
  • And right on cue he throws to third with no chance to get runner on 2nd so the batter takes 2nd easily. How long has he been playing baseball??

    The E-Man 21 hours 49 min ago view
  • Man you cannot put Soler out there late in games for Playoffs. Yuch...

    The E-Man 21 hours 57 min ago view
  • Such is the life of a fatted calf...

    JoePepitone 22 hours 11 min ago view
  • fowler with a triple in the 4th...he's a HR away from a "natural" cycle

    crunch 22 hours 43 min ago view
  • ...and contreras takes one off the hand and he's in obvious pain. sigh.

    he's staying in the game, though he's wringing his hand out during breaks in the action. aside from that he seems to have no issue giving signs or tossing back to the pitcher.

    ...and he's batting in the cubs half of the following inning. sweet.

    crunch 22 hours 47 min ago view
  • his collapse started on august 21st this season...so it's a slight improvement.

    but wow, what a collapse since then...only 2 out of 7 can be considered good/decent.

    crunch 22 hours 59 min ago view
  • I'm really going to enjoy watching Hammel watch the playoffs.

    Jackstraw 23 hours 18 min ago view
  • The always combustible Jason Hammel

    jacos 23 hours 38 min ago view
  • Hammel :(

    Charlie 23 hours 40 min ago view