Ex-Cub Factor

The phrase "ex-Cub factor" has been thrown around quite a bit. It was
originally coined by writer and Cub fan Ron Berler, who wrote an
article in 1981 stating that since the Yankees of that season had five
ex-Cubs on their roster, they were doomed to lose the World Series if
they got there. He was right -- they lost to the Dodgers in six games.

Up until 2001, the curse of the ex-Cub had been almost
complete. Since the Cubs last won the NL pennant in 1945, only once had
a team with three or more ex-Cubs won the World Series. That was the
1960 Pirates, and Berler even manages to explain that anomaly away in
his article.

In 2001, though, the Arizona Diamondbacks won the championship
with a healthy contingent of ex-Cubs: Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez, Mike
Morgan, and Miguel Batista. It would appear that the curse has been
broken, and Mark Grace even said as much during a post-game interview.
In response, all I can say is it's pretty interesting that the World
Series to which this one has most been compared is the 1960 Series, won
by the Pirates. In both cases, the National League team beat the New
York Yankees in the bottom of the 9th inning of the 7th game of the
Series. Coincidience? Or SOMETHING MORE???

You can now read the entire original Ex-Cub Factor article right here. Special thanks to Ron Berler, and as always to Mark McClusky, for bringing this website to Berler's attention.

2003 Update: How will the ex-Cub factor affect
this year's playoff race? Well, here are the teams in the playoff races
and the ex-Cub contingent on their rosters:

Atlanta (4): Will Cunnane, Matt Franco, Ray King, Greg Maddux
San Francisco (3): Benito Santiago, Tim Worrell, Eric Young
New York Yankees (2): Felix Heredia, Jon Lieber (DL)
Cubs (2): Doug Glanville, Mark Guthrie
Houston (2): Orlando Merced, Jose Vizcaino
Florida (1): Lenny Harris
Boston (1): Bill Mueller
Oakland (1): Micah Bowie (DL)
Minnesota: None

As usual, the Braves look to be in trouble when it comes to
ex-Cubs in the playoffs. Maddux will be on the post-season roster, and
I imagine Franco will be, too. That leaves the two relief pitchers.
Cunnane has been effective in John Smoltz's absence, so he very well
may make the playoff roster. If he does, the Braves are doomed.
Likewise the Giants, who feature ex-Cubs at starting catcher and
closer. Eric Young was acquired as insurance against Ray Durham's
injury. With Durham healthy, Felipe Alou would be wise to leave Young
off the October roster unless he wants to treat fans to a repeat of
last year's heartbreak.

I've been tracking the ex-Cub factor for the past few years,
and Carl Condon has gone back to the earliest days of the World Series
to track The Factor. I have combined the work he and I have done and I
am in the process of making it available on the Historical Ex-Cub Factor page. You'll see that the Curse of the Ex-Cub has held true almost perfectly throughout the years.

Is there a lesson to be learned from this? I think so. If you find your team in a pennant race, RELEASE ANYONE WHO USED TO BE ON THE CUBS. It's really pretty simple. Guys like Shawon Dunston and Mike Morgan might help you get into the playoffs, but you'd better ditch them come playoff time.

2002 UPDATE: Angels (one ex-Cub) defeat Giants (three ex-Cubs) in World Series. Ex-Cub Factor fulfilled for the 20th time.

Recent comments

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  • RF is actually easier to play than LF in PNC so I'd guess Schwarber is there and that's why he was playing it Friday but yeah I'd say that's hopefully accurate.

  • Guess for Wednesday's lineup: Fowler (CF), Schwarber (LF), Bryant (3B), Rizzo (1B), Castro (2B), Montero (C), Russell (SS), Arrieta (P), Coughlan (RF)

  • Dusty already has blue and red wrist bands.

    /cmon dude

  • a day old, but fwiw...

    Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat · Oct 4
    Theo and Jed at Miller Park to talk to #Cubs Maddon and staff. Playoff roster to be finalized by Wednesday morning

  • I'm guessing the order is the other way around.

  • cc sab going into alcohol rehab, missing the post-season for the yanks.

  • no bud black? cold.

  • Break up the Cubs!
    MLB.com throws out two names to manage the Nats: Dave Martinez and Wally Backman.

  • matt williams (WAS) fired...shocker. he lost control and confidence of that clubhouse way before papelbum got there.

    having a roster chock full of egomaniacs and assholes doesn't help.

    he won 'manager of the year' last year, fwiw.

  • If he were dealing with Chicago traffic, I would take my chances with the golf cart.

  • You can get to the MKE airport from Miller Park via all surface streets, no real reason to get on the expressway. Unless he is in a real hurry to get to Az.

  • CUBSTER: I would think a cab or a limo would get Motte to the airport faster than a golf cart. The maximum speed of a golf cart is (what?) maybe 15 MPH, which could actually be dangerous on an expressway. 

  • from the Sunday Trib...

    Reliever Jason Motte waved as he left the visitor’s clubhouse at Miller Park on a golf cart en route to the airport to catch a flight to Arizona to start a rehab assignment.
    Motte has been on the 15-day disabled list since Aug. 24 because of a right shoulder strain, but there’s a possibility he could rejoin the Cubs if they advance deep in the playoffs.
    Motte is scheduled to pitch in simulated games and in Instructional League games in Arizona.

  • 8 in a row to end the year...let's do this playoffs thing.

  • shelby miller (ATL) finishes the season with a win, snapping his 24-game winless streak...because ATL bats are non-existent.

    3.02 era, 1.25 whip, 205.1ip, 171K

    6-17 w/l...ugg.

  • Totally independent of the Cubs winning or losing today, Dan Haren came into today's game having earned $2M of his potential $3M in performance bonuses for 2015. 

    By making the start (his 32nd start of the season) he picked up $500K, and he'll get the remaining $500K if he can throw at least 8.2 IP in the game (he was at 181.1 IP coming into the game, and he needs to reach 190 IP to get the remaining $500K), 

    It's a bit like the old "Bowling for Dollars" TV show, but of course Haren is actually "Pitching for Dollars."