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Cubnut's Archives
There’s Nothing Like A Well-Pitched Anomaly
Thanks to Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis, the Cubs have gotten two great starts in three games. How great was it for those guys?
According to Bill James’ formula for starting pitchers’ Game Scores, Lilly’s Cub debut on Wednesday—7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 K and just 1 BB--earned a score of 75. In Ted Lilly’s world, that’s not just good, it’s not just very good, it’s three-years-and-63-starts good.
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What–No Bill Wirtz?
An incomplete, almost entirely speculative list of people identified by various sources as possible purchasers of the Chicago National League Ball Club:
Mark Cuban, Dallas Mavericks Owner
Donald Levin, Chicago Wolves Owner
Jerry Colangelo, Phoenix Suns Chairman
Pat Ryan, Founder and Executive Chairman of Aon Corporation
Bill Murray, Actor
George Will, Journalist
Tom Begel, Chicago businessman
William Marovitz, former Illinois state senator
Larry Levy, restaurateur
Bruce Rauner, Chicago private-equity investor
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Cubs 2007 Season In Review
Opening Day is still more than a week off, but the prognostication season is well under way. Sports Illustrated’s annual preview was mentioned here yesterday, but The Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus are also out with their player-by-player predictions, as is Baseball Think Factory’s Dan Szymborski, father of the ZIPS Projections.
THT, BP (with their PECOTA Projections) and Szymborski each employs a unique methodology, which I won’t even try to summarize or explain. Regardless, I thought it would be worthwhile to stack all three sets of Cub player predictions side by side, focusing on the eight likely starting position players plus Cliff Floyd, the five starting pitchers including Wade Miller, and the closer, Ryan Dempster.
The THT numbers come from their most excellent season preview book featuring the work of one Rob G.; the Baseball Prospectus numbers come from BP 2007; and I pulled the ZIPS Projections from the Baseball Think Factory site. (Thanks again, Dan, for your permission to use them here.)Also, to round out the field, I consulted my old friend, Phil, a very smart, very dedicated Cub fan who can calculate slugging percentages in his head and who, coincidentally, turned me on to The Cub Reporter what seems like a very long time ago. Phil employed no simulation models or complicated algorithms in coming up with his picks, but rather, a time-honored technique called educated guesswork that took about 15 minutes.
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We’re Number 15! We’re Number 15!
I’m putting together a look at how some of the online pubs and soothsayers foresee the Cubs season ahead. In the meantime, the Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview edition is on the street.
SI has the Cubs pegged for second in the NL Central, behind the Cards and out of the post-season picture.
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Following In The Footsteps Of Ruben Quevedo
In honor of Wade Miller (the Frontrunner), Angel Guzman (the Contender, at least until earlier today), and Mark Prior (the Bystander), here is a list of recent Cubs' #5 starters, defined as the pitcher with the fifth most starts in a given season.
Note: portions may be unsuitable for more sensitive viewers.
1997: Frank Castillo, 19 starts, 98 IP, 6-9, 5.42
1998: Geremi Gonzalez, 20 starts, 110 IP, 7-7, 5.32
1999: Terry Mulholland, 16 starts, 110 IP, 6-6, 5.15
2000: Ruben Quevedo, 15 starts, 88 IP, 3-10, 7.47
2001: Julian Taverez, 28 starts, 161.3 IP, 10-9, 4.52
2002: Ca
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Match The Ex-Cub To The Excuse
This former Northsider is now feeling as fit as a sub-replacement level fiddle. But that wasn't the case last season:
“(He) fought through a sports hernia all of last season with the Cubs... He underwent surgery for that. Even bigger… he finally underwent an operation to clean out loose bodies in his throwing elbow.”Any guesses?
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Lou Can Be Funny
Amusing comment from Lou Piniella in Monday morning’s Tribune story about Mark Prior being scheduled for a start in the minor league camp this coming Thursday.
“Get him to go down there and relax, and just pitch. He doesn't have to answer to the media. Hopefully you guys will all be over [at HoHoKam Park] at the 'A' game. Leave him alone, and let him pitch."Obviously, this will be the most well attended minor league game in Cubs camp in some time.
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They’re Watching Us
On Friday, All The News That’s Fit To Print included an account of Lou Piniella’s first day as captain aboard the good ship Heartbreak.
The piece, by Lee Jenkins, describes Piniella as most fans, myself included, have long seen him:
“fiery”
“known for his outbursts”
“naturally animated and restless”
“a manager who really knows how to vent”
“as famous for his dirt kicking…as he is for any pep talks”
“a man…who clearly hates to lose”
“(reacting) to every booted ball…with a tortured expression or a fit of rage”
But the story isn’t just a string of clichés.
Lotsa Lefties
The Cubs may be short these days on professional centerfielders and recent World Championship banners, but the Wrigley Boys are positively drowning in lefthanded pitching candidates. In fact, with five southpaws in line to make the big league roster (see Arizona Phil’s post from early Thursday), it’s difficult to even recognize them as the Cubs.
Assuming Ted Lilly and Rich Hill each make 30 starts this season—a big stretch for young Hill; Lilly has hit 30 in three of the last four years—the duo would become the first pair of lefties to do so since Dick Ellsworth and Kenny Holtzman way back in 1966.
For a little historical perspective, last season, led by Hill and Sean Marshall, lefthanders accounted for just over 31% of all Cubs IP. That’s the highest total since 1986, when the 70-90 Cubs relied on six lefties for 31.2% of their total IP.
(For the record, the “Southpaw Six” were Steve Trout (161 IP), Jamie Moyer (87), Ray Fontenot (56), Guy Hoffman (84), Frank DiPino (40), and Drew Hall (23.7). I’m not sure, but I’m guessing that’s the first time Guy Hoffman’s name has ever been mentioned at The Cub Reporter. Congrats, Guy!)
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Bend It Like Selig
Ahhh, spring training. A time for doubt, self-pity, hopelessness, and the bitter, burning anger that comes from realizing your heydays are now so far behind you, they’re barely specks in your rear view mirror.
At least, that’s what I imagine spring training means to fans of the Royals and the Pirates, and, if you take away the heydays part, to loyalists of the Rockies and Devil Rays.
(A Cubs fan feeling sorry for other teams’ fans—pretty funny, huh?)
Ever since I first became acquainted with it, I’ve been fascinated by the tiered structure of professional soccer in places like England and Italy, where clubs compete for championships only within their tiers, the top finishing teams at the end of each season are promoted to the next level for the subsequent season, and the bottom finishers are demoted or “relegated” to the next lower rung on the ladder.
Such a system would be completely unacceptable in Major League Baseball for a thousand reasons. One of the most obvious is the travel burden it would impose on a team from the West Coast, say, if it was in a division with nine teams from the east. But logic aside…
Zell And Satan Talk About Buying Tribune Company
Chicago real estate bigshot Sam Zell and international despot Rupert Murdoch were mentioned today in separate stories about the possible sale of Tribune Company.
The piece in the Trib says Zell has not made a bid on the company but has entered into "preliminary" talks to see if a deal could be put in place, probably involving some sort of partnership between himself and the McCormick Tribune Foundation, which is run by current and former Tribune Company execs, includi
Lucky For Me, I’m A Pig
(Quick aside: I want to thank Rob and the other TCRers for inviting me to play with them. Going back to the days when Ruz was the one and only Cub Reporter, I have marveled at both the quality and quantity of information available here. I hope to measure up.)
I have a throwing-things-out problem, as in, I can’t make myself do it.
WIFE: What are those?
ME: Hockey cards…from 1973.
WIFE: Are you saving them?
ME: Of course.
WIFE: Why?
ME: What if one of the kids asks what Henry Boucha looked like when he played for the Detroit Red Wings?
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Recent comments
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
I don’t buy that. They had been doing that for years.
They did it with Matt Holliday. They did it with John Lackey. They did it with Mark Mulder. They did it with Jason Heyward, who had a great year for them. I’m sure there’s more but those come to mind immediately.
I attribute it more to a breakdown in what they’re doing in terms of development than a culture thing.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
They won those trades and sacrificed their culture. That’s exactly their problem.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
The other part that’s kind of crazy is they made two very high profile trades, one for Goldschmidt and one for Arenado, and they very clearly won those trades. They just haven’t been able to develop players the last handful of years the way they usually do.
I guess the moral there is it’s hard to stay on top of your game and be good at what you do in perpetuity.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Marmol was extended at the beginning of the year. Two years I believe.
crunch (view)
Jesse Rogers @JesseRogersESPN
Craig Counsell doesn’t have a timetable for Cody Bellinger who technically has two cracked ribs on his right side. CT scan showed it today.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
Thought it might have been David Peralta given the open 40 man spot and how PCA has played so far.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
I hope they keep Mozeliak a few more years. Marmol too!
crunch (view)
wow, counsell coming with the early lineup. rarity.
canario/tauchman/happ RF/CF/LF
crunch (view)
PCA called up.
crunch (view)
welp...
bellinger...fractured rib.
a not-very-ready PCA will probably be called up when it would be much better for him to be in AAA getting regular ABs.