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Will Jim Hendry’s [CENSORED] Work In The Playoffs?

In Moneyball, Michael Lewis quotes Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane as saying:
“My sh_t doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f_cking luck.”
In Baseball Between The Numbers, the editors of Baseball Prospectus ask the question raised by Beane’s frank self-analysis: Why hasn't the guy’s sh---t worked? To get to the answer, BP identified 26 different measures of team quality—everything from things like regular season won-loss record, late-season W-L record, run differential, and team playoff experience to the more arcane Percent Of Runs Scored On Home Runs and Isolated Power—and after a lot of number-crunching and analysis, they concluded that three factors have “the most fundamental and direct relationship” to playoff success:

Game 160 Thread / Cubs @ Reds (1 of 3)

Game Chat : BR Preview : Game Notes Carlos Zambrano vs. Bronson Arroyo Lineups:
Soriano LF Hopper CF
Kendall C Keppinger SS
Lee 1B Votto 1B
Floyd RF Phillips 2B
Ramirez 3B Encarnacion 3B
DeRosa 2B Valentin C
Jones CF Coats LF
Theriot SS Ellison RF
Zambrano P Arroyo P
The hopes of all Cubdom rest on the broad shoulders of Zambrano, who has pitched well in three of his last four starts. The clinker in that bunch, unfortunately, was a 5-2 loss to the Reds, who have already beaten Carlos four times this season. Zambrano's strikeout numbers are down significantly in '07; he's had particular trouble missing Cincinnati bats (just 11 K in 28 2/3 IP). Importantly, though, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Josh Hamilton--combined 1.112 OPS against Zambrano this year--are all sitting this one out with injuries.

Game 154 Thread/Pirates @ Cubs (1 of 3)

Game Chat : BR Preview : Game Notes Paul Maholm vs. Jason Marquis Lineups:
Morgan CF Soriano LF
McLouth LF DeRosa 2B
Sanchez 2B Lee 1B
LaRoche 1B Ramirez 3B
Nady RF Murton RF
Bautista 3B Soto C
Paulino C Monroe CF
Izturis SS Theriot SS
Maholm P Marquis P
Welcome, everyone, to Jeff Bennett Day at The Cub Reporter! In their 2007 annual, the Baseball Prospectus gang describes Pirates starter Paul Maholm as "a pitch-to-contact, ground-ball lefty." Sounds like Cub Kryptonite to me. The fact is, however, despite having lost to Maholm twice already this season, the Cubs have hit him hard--8 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings, including homers by Ramirez, Pagan, and a catcher who is now dead to us in a losing cause back on May 10th.

Game 153 Thread/Reds @ Cubs (3 of 3)

Game Chat : BR Preview : Game Notes Tom Shearn vs. Ted Lilly Lineups:
N. Hopper CF A. Soriano LF
J. Keppinger SS R. Theriot SS
K. Griffey RF D. Lee 1B
B. Phillips 2B C. Floyd RF
A. Dunn LF A. Ramirez 3B
E. Encarnacion 3B M. DeRosa 2B
J. Votto 1B J. Jones CF
D. Ross C G. Soto C
T. Shearn P T. Lilly P
Time for the Cubbies to take a big bite out of that .00027 winning-percentage-point lead the Brewers have built in the National League Central. Lilly takes the mound on three days' rest following a well-pitched ND against the Cardinals. The lefty is 1-1 against the Reds this season, but in 18 IP, Lilly has allowed a mere 11 hits, striking out 24 and walking just 4. As for the Reds starter... When Rick Ankiel was implicated in baseball's ongoing HGH mess and went from being MLB's Feel-Good Story of 2007 to just another suspect, 30-year-old righthander Tom Shearn shot to the top of the Feel-Good list. In case you haven't heard them, the facts are these:

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  • f'real...didn't even streak or try to beat up a base coach or anything.

    crunch 13 min 38 sec ago view
  • After the game, jacos was DFA'd. #nohelp

    CTSteve 17 min 33 sec ago view
  • Richard proving once again that, if you are really bad, it doesn't matter which hand you throw with.

    Maybe time to find out what we have in Edwards?

    billybucks 27 min 10 sec ago view
  • Oof -- ugly game at the plate and from the pen, which was the hero yesterday.

    Sorry Jake -- you deserved better.

    billybucks 28 min 34 sec ago view
  • k.bryant playing SS...because fuck it, that's why.

    crunch 32 min 4 sec ago view
  • g.soto is doing horrible in AAA...unfortunately.

    unless they decide to bring up g.concepcion or make a trade we might have richard around a little longer.

    ...that said, it wouldn't surprise me to see him DFA'd after the game...the "lefty specialist" just let 3 lefties in a row get on base. ugg.

    crunch 42 min 27 sec ago view
  • Ahhh Richard with your 6.00+ ERA as a short reliever...

    You ain't gonna be on no Playoff roster.

    The E-Man 52 min 17 sec ago view
  • I'll give this to Richard: he looks the part of a good pitcher, straight out of central casting. It's a shame he struggles with the getting guys out part of the game.

    Eric S 58 min 29 sec ago view
  • Didn't take Richard long. He is an absolute disaster.

    billybucks 1 hour 3 min ago view
  • Thru seven innings the Cubs have more errors than hits and Zobrist has struck out 3 times. And now Richard is pitching.

    These things do not add up to victory

    Eric S 1 hour 6 min ago view
  • It was from about 15 years ago

    jacos 1 hour 8 min ago view
  • Guess I was on tv

    jacos 1 hour 8 min ago view
  • Vin Scully sang the seventh-inning stretch. Along with all the great things he is known for, he can sing! He sounded like Willie Nelson out there. And he gave a nice shout-out to Harry. What a class guy.

    fullykräusened 1 hour 12 min ago view
  • I'm thinking Kazmir did not get the memo he was supposed to pitch like a tomato can tonight. Jeesh

    Eric S 1 hour 32 min ago view
  • yeah, she's not on this game, though.

    they keep talking about things that aren't this game...a lot...rather than calling this game, doing split screen coverage of other games, doing split screen studio banter, and they just finished cutting away from the game totally (no split screen) to cover another game while missing rizzo's K and the first 2 pitches of zobrist's AB.

    ESPN...because screw you, you weren't really tuning in to watch this.

    crunch 1 hour 59 min ago view
  • Phil, I think I read an earlier take that you don't see much of an ML career for Brooks? I kinda thought when he was acquired it was as depth for this year, but with an eye on the Cahill type swing role next year?

    Then again he did get hit around pretty bad in his big league time last year.

    Koyies Bansaw 2 hours 9 min ago view