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Will Jim Hendry’s [CENSORED] Work In The Playoffs?

In Moneyball, Michael Lewis quotes Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane as saying:
“My sh_t doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f_cking luck.”
In Baseball Between The Numbers, the editors of Baseball Prospectus ask the question raised by Beane’s frank self-analysis: Why hasn't the guy’s sh---t worked? To get to the answer, BP identified 26 different measures of team quality—everything from things like regular season won-loss record, late-season W-L record, run differential, and team playoff experience to the more arcane Percent Of Runs Scored On Home Runs and Isolated Power—and after a lot of number-crunching and analysis, they concluded that three factors have “the most fundamental and direct relationship” to playoff success:

Game 160 Thread / Cubs @ Reds (1 of 3)

Game Chat : BR Preview : Game Notes Carlos Zambrano vs. Bronson Arroyo Lineups:
Soriano LF Hopper CF
Kendall C Keppinger SS
Lee 1B Votto 1B
Floyd RF Phillips 2B
Ramirez 3B Encarnacion 3B
DeRosa 2B Valentin C
Jones CF Coats LF
Theriot SS Ellison RF
Zambrano P Arroyo P
The hopes of all Cubdom rest on the broad shoulders of Zambrano, who has pitched well in three of his last four starts. The clinker in that bunch, unfortunately, was a 5-2 loss to the Reds, who have already beaten Carlos four times this season. Zambrano's strikeout numbers are down significantly in '07; he's had particular trouble missing Cincinnati bats (just 11 K in 28 2/3 IP). Importantly, though, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Josh Hamilton--combined 1.112 OPS against Zambrano this year--are all sitting this one out with injuries.

Game 154 Thread/Pirates @ Cubs (1 of 3)

Game Chat : BR Preview : Game Notes Paul Maholm vs. Jason Marquis Lineups:
Morgan CF Soriano LF
McLouth LF DeRosa 2B
Sanchez 2B Lee 1B
LaRoche 1B Ramirez 3B
Nady RF Murton RF
Bautista 3B Soto C
Paulino C Monroe CF
Izturis SS Theriot SS
Maholm P Marquis P
Welcome, everyone, to Jeff Bennett Day at The Cub Reporter! In their 2007 annual, the Baseball Prospectus gang describes Pirates starter Paul Maholm as "a pitch-to-contact, ground-ball lefty." Sounds like Cub Kryptonite to me. The fact is, however, despite having lost to Maholm twice already this season, the Cubs have hit him hard--8 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings, including homers by Ramirez, Pagan, and a catcher who is now dead to us in a losing cause back on May 10th.

Game 153 Thread/Reds @ Cubs (3 of 3)

Game Chat : BR Preview : Game Notes Tom Shearn vs. Ted Lilly Lineups:
N. Hopper CF A. Soriano LF
J. Keppinger SS R. Theriot SS
K. Griffey RF D. Lee 1B
B. Phillips 2B C. Floyd RF
A. Dunn LF A. Ramirez 3B
E. Encarnacion 3B M. DeRosa 2B
J. Votto 1B J. Jones CF
D. Ross C G. Soto C
T. Shearn P T. Lilly P
Time for the Cubbies to take a big bite out of that .00027 winning-percentage-point lead the Brewers have built in the National League Central. Lilly takes the mound on three days' rest following a well-pitched ND against the Cardinals. The lefty is 1-1 against the Reds this season, but in 18 IP, Lilly has allowed a mere 11 hits, striking out 24 and walking just 4. As for the Reds starter... When Rick Ankiel was implicated in baseball's ongoing HGH mess and went from being MLB's Feel-Good Story of 2007 to just another suspect, 30-year-old righthander Tom Shearn shot to the top of the Feel-Good list. In case you haven't heard them, the facts are these:

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  • coghlan out...got his cleats stuck on the wall attempting a catch.

    walking off on his own, precautionary/day-to-day looking stuff...hopefully not worse.

    crunch 12 sec ago view
  • Coghlan crashes into wall and comes up limping, looks like left knee or ankle. Leaves game...

    Arrieta inspiring no confidence yet again.

    Rob G. 1 min 30 sec ago view
  • from a sun-times article that I won't link to so you don't have to bear the ad-loading that will crush your browser

    When he left Boston after nine years as general manager, Epstein said he believed in the philosophy espoused by legendary football coach Bill Walsh: essentially that 10 years is a natural shelf life for a high-stress job.

    Rob G. 3 min 33 sec ago view
  • Despite a somewhat slumping September for Bryant (233/310/411), he still leads the NL in WAR by a healthy margin in both fWAR(8.4 vs 7.6 for Seager) and bWAR  (7.6 to 6.5 for Freeman...Seager is tied for 3rd with Arenado at 6.2)

    If you just want to look at offense, Bryant is 4th in the NL in wRC+ behind Votto, Murphy and Freeman with Rizzo in 5th (and possibly ahead after tonight).

    Rob G. 14 min 31 sec ago view
  • hey everyone, this guy...this is the guy we blame.

    have fun in chicago.

    crunch 15 min 16 sec ago view
  • I hate to put the jinx on, but I just bought a plane ticket to Chicago for the last weekend in October. 

    CTSteve 16 min 35 sec ago view
  • Glove-gate? bottom 4th, Rizzo-Zobrist and I don't get it. Is it 3-4 or 3-4 putout. Rizzo gets 2nd base qualification in fantasy leagues?

    Cubster 16 min 50 sec ago view
  • a.rizzo now playing 2nd in a lineup position switch because c.hurdle bitched about rizzo changing gloves and slotting to 2nd on an anticipated bunt play.

    now he's got a PO playing as a 2nd baseman. neat.

    crunch 17 min 55 sec ago view
  • dfa jake arrieta.

    free tim federowicz.

    vaccines kill.

    9/11 was an inside job.

    crunch 22 min 15 sec ago view
  • rizzo #32...ties career high.

    crunch 1 hour 30 min ago view
  • The team, farm and scouting system were barren when they arrive.
    They punted two seasons, third season 73 wins which is what happened about 75% of the time in last 50 years

    jacos 1 hour 35 min ago view
  • OKAY! COOL!

    crunch 3 hours 6 min ago view
  • there was more than one way to get there

    Nope.

    Rob G. 3 hours 10 min ago view
  • supposedly jed "who?" hoyer, too

    crunch 3 hours 14 min ago view
  • same...i just happen to not like sitting through shit sandwich meals for multiple years. baseball is kinda boring when you're punting on 1st down for a slew of years in a row.

    i fully understand why it was done, but i didn't enjoy it. there was more than one way to get competitive and this was the chosen way.

    crunch 3 hours 15 min ago view
  • fwiw, apparently McLeod signed extension as well after he didn't get Twins gig.

    Rob G. 3 hours 15 min ago view