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Will Jim Hendry’s [CENSORED] Work In The Playoffs?

In Moneyball, Michael Lewis quotes Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane as saying:
“My sh_t doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f_cking luck.”
In Baseball Between The Numbers, the editors of Baseball Prospectus ask the question raised by Beane’s frank self-analysis: Why hasn't the guy’s sh---t worked? To get to the answer, BP identified 26 different measures of team quality—everything from things like regular season won-loss record, late-season W-L record, run differential, and team playoff experience to the more arcane Percent Of Runs Scored On Home Runs and Isolated Power—and after a lot of number-crunching and analysis, they concluded that three factors have “the most fundamental and direct relationship” to playoff success:

Game 160 Thread / Cubs @ Reds (1 of 3)

Game Chat : BR Preview : Game Notes Carlos Zambrano vs. Bronson Arroyo Lineups:
Soriano LF Hopper CF
Kendall C Keppinger SS
Lee 1B Votto 1B
Floyd RF Phillips 2B
Ramirez 3B Encarnacion 3B
DeRosa 2B Valentin C
Jones CF Coats LF
Theriot SS Ellison RF
Zambrano P Arroyo P
The hopes of all Cubdom rest on the broad shoulders of Zambrano, who has pitched well in three of his last four starts. The clinker in that bunch, unfortunately, was a 5-2 loss to the Reds, who have already beaten Carlos four times this season. Zambrano's strikeout numbers are down significantly in '07; he's had particular trouble missing Cincinnati bats (just 11 K in 28 2/3 IP). Importantly, though, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Josh Hamilton--combined 1.112 OPS against Zambrano this year--are all sitting this one out with injuries.

Game 154 Thread/Pirates @ Cubs (1 of 3)

Game Chat : BR Preview : Game Notes Paul Maholm vs. Jason Marquis Lineups:
Morgan CF Soriano LF
McLouth LF DeRosa 2B
Sanchez 2B Lee 1B
LaRoche 1B Ramirez 3B
Nady RF Murton RF
Bautista 3B Soto C
Paulino C Monroe CF
Izturis SS Theriot SS
Maholm P Marquis P
Welcome, everyone, to Jeff Bennett Day at The Cub Reporter! In their 2007 annual, the Baseball Prospectus gang describes Pirates starter Paul Maholm as "a pitch-to-contact, ground-ball lefty." Sounds like Cub Kryptonite to me. The fact is, however, despite having lost to Maholm twice already this season, the Cubs have hit him hard--8 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings, including homers by Ramirez, Pagan, and a catcher who is now dead to us in a losing cause back on May 10th.

Game 153 Thread/Reds @ Cubs (3 of 3)

Game Chat : BR Preview : Game Notes Tom Shearn vs. Ted Lilly Lineups:
N. Hopper CF A. Soriano LF
J. Keppinger SS R. Theriot SS
K. Griffey RF D. Lee 1B
B. Phillips 2B C. Floyd RF
A. Dunn LF A. Ramirez 3B
E. Encarnacion 3B M. DeRosa 2B
J. Votto 1B J. Jones CF
D. Ross C G. Soto C
T. Shearn P T. Lilly P
Time for the Cubbies to take a big bite out of that .00027 winning-percentage-point lead the Brewers have built in the National League Central. Lilly takes the mound on three days' rest following a well-pitched ND against the Cardinals. The lefty is 1-1 against the Reds this season, but in 18 IP, Lilly has allowed a mere 11 hits, striking out 24 and walking just 4. As for the Reds starter... When Rick Ankiel was implicated in baseball's ongoing HGH mess and went from being MLB's Feel-Good Story of 2007 to just another suspect, 30-year-old righthander Tom Shearn shot to the top of the Feel-Good list. In case you haven't heard them, the facts are these:

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  • Classic ending, about 12:11 AM, CST. 5 hours, 3 minutes. Both teams have bases loaded, no out situations in the last inning.

    Magic #19.

    Last man on the bench, Montero gets it done.

    Cubster 24 min 18 sec ago view
  • This fucking game

    Baez lucky to not have hurt his hand with headfirst slide on play at plate in 12th inning.

    Rob G. 1 hour 20 min ago view
  • #$@!$!@$!@$#@!$@!$!@#!@!

    SOLER POWER!

    crunch 2 hours 25 min ago view
  • Maddon's master plan to challenge his offense to improve on coming from behind late in games is working amazingly.

    Rob G. 2 hours 57 min ago view
  • Everyone remember Starlin Castro dropping or misplaying just about every ball near second base that involved a tag?

    Javier Baez is the opposite of that.

    Rob G. 3 hours 7 min ago view
  • on the wild pitch thing, did they really call that a wild pitch on Jansen that Heyward scored on Friday? If so, I don't know what a passed ball is anymore.

    Rob G. 3 hours 10 min ago view
  • Let's see -- up 3-0, at home, Jake on the mound annnnd....compare and contrast 2015 to 2016. Bleh.

    Hopefully, the Pirates will uncork a series of 9th inning wild pitches.

    billybucks 3 hours 14 min ago view
  • modern media

    @BNightengale: Former #MLB pitcher Dan Haren will be throwing to Tim Tebow tomorrow during his tryout in LA, he announced.

     [email protected](dan haren): @BNightengale nope, I was offered the opportunity and declined.

     @ithrow88 Oh and memo to my agent, @bvanwagenen: Pitching to Tim Tebow tomorrow DOES NOT count as getting me a real job offer.

    Rob G. 3 hours 32 min ago view
  • I think the Cub Reporter should be politics free.
    ---
    Build Bridges. Don't anyone dare pull out a trump card.

    Cubster 3 hours 41 min ago view
  • The Cub offense is in on the con.

    1-for-10 so far w/RISP.

    billybucks 3 hours 45 min ago view
  • swing and a miss.

    i'm gonna like...go stand over there. *points*

    crunch 3 hours 46 min ago view
  • This is all a long con by Arrieta to lull playoff opponents.

    Rob G. 3 hours 50 min ago view
  • the factual correction on your mistakes on your post that I barely bothered to read the first time because it had nothing to do with anything I wanted to talk about is indeed a sign of my degenerative brain condition. I appreciate the safety tip and will be looking into with extreme urgency now.

    Rob G. 4 hours 13 min ago view
  • it took you 4 posts to get to this?

    have you checked the batteries in your carbon monoxide detector?

    #droppingknowledge #savinglives

    crunch 4 hours 37 min ago view
  • Fwiw, Billy Hamilton's actual WAR numbers that relate to the ones that I posted for Mike Trout are:

    • 2014: 2.5
    • 2015: 1.0
    • 2016: 2.6

    But by all means #crunchsplain on the stupidity of WAR while exaggerating your points. I can't wait to read more.

    Rob G. 4 hours 43 min ago view
  • jacos 4 hours 43 min ago view