If They Do It
With two weeks left in the 2007 MLB season, the Cubs lead the Brewers by one game. The Cubs also trail the Padres by four games in the Wild Card standings, in case that becomes an issue later.
If a one-game tie-breaker is required, it would be played on Monday 10/1. It would count as a "regular season" game, so the "regular season" roster (up to 40 players) would be available, and the stats from that game would apply to the regular season.
If the Cubs play the Brewers in a 10/1 tie-breaker game (and MIL is the most-likely opponent for the Cubs if they finish in a tie after 162 games), the game would be played at Wrigley Field.
But if the 2007 season ended today, the Cubs would open the NLDS (best three-out-of five) at AZ (Wednesday 10/3 and Thursday 10/4), with games at Wrigley Field on Saturday 10/6 and (if necessary) Sunday 10/7, and (if necessary) a fifth and final game at Arizona on Tuesday 10/9. SD would play NYM (opening two games and--if necessary--final game at New York), to determine who plays in the NLCS (best four-out-of seven, starting on Thursday 10/11).
Although there is no way of knowing how things will turn out, here is a guess at the Cubs 2007 post-season roster, should they be fortunate enough to run the gauntlet and make it that far:
ROSTER RULES:
1. Players who were on the Cubs 25-man roster and 15-day DL and 60-day DL as of midnight on 8/31 are eligible to play in the post-season.
2. Players who were on the on the 15-day or 60-day DL as of 8/31 (and for the Cubs, that would be Angel Guzman , Roberto Novoa , Angel Pagan , and Mark Prior ), as well as any player who was on the 25-man roster as of 8/31 who is placed on the 15-day or 60-day DL during September, can be replaced on the post-season 25-man active roster by any player (regardless of position), as long as the replacement player was in the Cubs organization as of midnight 8/31. (If the replacement player is not already on the 40-man roster, the player must be added to the Cubs 40-man roster before he can be activated for the post-season).
3. A player who is injured DURING a post-season series can (with the approval of the MLB Commisioner) be replaced during that series, as long as the replacement player plays the same position as the injured player. (And if an injured player is replaced during a post-season series, the injured player cannot be reactivated for the duration of the post-season).
4. Post-seson rosters can be changed prior to each post-season series (NLDS, NLCS, and WS).
PROJECTED CUBS POST-SEASON ROSTER
LIKELY ACTIVE 25-MAN ROSTER FOR NLDS
* bats or throws left
# bats both
PITCHERS (11):
Ryan Dempster
* Scott Eyre
Kevin Hart (DL replacement #1)
* Rich Hill
Bob Howry
* Ted Lilly
Carlos Marmol
Jason Marquis
Kerry Wood
Michael Wuertz
Carlos Zambrano
CATCHERS (2):
Jason Kendall
Geovany Soto (DL replacement #2)
INFIELDERS (6):
Mark DeRosa
* Mike Fontenot
Derrek Lee
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Theriot
* Daryle Ward
OUTFIELDERS (6):
* Cliff Floyd
* Jacque Jones
Craig Monroe
Matt Murton
* Felix Pie
Alfonso Soriano
READY-RESERVE REPLACEMENT CADRE (INACTIVE)
PITCHERS (5):
Sean Gallagher
* Sean Marshall
* Will Ohman
* Carmen Pignatiello
Steve Trachsel
CATCHERS (1):
Henry Blanco
INFIELDERS (1):
Ronny Cedeno
OUTFIELDERS (2):
* Sam Fuld
# Angel Pagan (on 15-day DL)
NOTE: It is important to have at least one player in the "Replacement Cadre" available for each position in case an injured player has to be replaced during a post-season series, because an injured player can only be replaced during the NLDS, NLCS, or WS by a player who plays the same position as the injured player.
If the situation arises and the Cubs choose to replace a player who is injured in the midst of the NLDS, NLCS, or WS, any player who was in the Cubs organization as of midnight 8/31 could be used as the replacement for the injured player, but it's very unlikely that a player who has been inactive for several weeks would be selected over a player who has been with the Cubs all the way through to the end of the regular season.
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With the Mets leading the N. L. East, the Cubs leading the N. L. Central, the Diamondbacks leading the N. L. West, and the Padres leading the N. L. Wild Card, and with FLA, WAS, and SF having already been officially eliminated from contention, here are the "Magic Numbers" for the remaining N. L. clubs not in 1st place in a division or the Wild Card:
"MAGIC NUMBER" TO BE ELIMINATED FROM N. L. CENTRAL (CUBS lead N. L. Central by 1.0 game - tied with MIL in "loss column"):
MIL - 13
STL - 7
CIN - 4
PIT - 2
HOU - 1
"MAGIC NUMBER" TO BE ELIMINATED FROM N. L. EAST (Mets lead N. L. East by 3.5 games):
PHI - 11
ATL - 7
"MAGIC NUMBER" TO BE ELIMINATED FROM N. L. WEST (AZ leads N. L. West by 2.0 games):
SD - 12
LAD - 9
COL - 7
"MAGIC NUMBER" TO BE ELIMINATED FROM WILD CARD (SD leads Wild Card by 1.5 games):
PHI - 13
LAD - 12
COL - 10
CUBS - 10
MIL - 10
ATL - 9
STL - 4
CIN - 1
==============================
REMAINING SCHEDULE FOR N. L. CLUBS STILL IN CONTENTION:
CUBS (12):
CIN (3): Hill vs Bronson Arroyo , Zambrano vs Aaron Harang , Lilly vs Tom Shearn
OFF
PIT (3): Marquis vs Paul Maholm , Hill vs Bryan Bullington , Zambrano vs Tom Gorzelanny
OFF
@ FLA (3): Lilly vs Dontrelle Willis , Marquis vs Sergio Mitre , Hill vs Scott Olsen
@ CIN (3): Zambrano vs Arroyo, TBD vs Harang, Lilly (or TBD if clinched) vs Shearn
TIE-BREAKER GAME #163: Marquis vs TBD
MIL (14):
@ HOU (3)
@ ATL (4)
STL (3)
SD (4)
STL (14):
PHI (3)
HOU (4)
@ MIL (3)
@ NYM (1)
@ PIT (3)
CIN (13):
@ CUBS (3)
@ SF (4)
OFF
HOU (3)
CUBS (3)
PIT (13):
@ SD (4)
@ CUBS (3)
OFF
AZ (3)
STL (3)
NYM (14):
@ WAS (3)
@ FLA (4)
WAS (3)
STL (1)
FLA (3)
PHI (13):
@ STL (3)
@ WAS (4)
OFF
ATL (3)
WAS (3)
ATL (13):
FLA (3)
MIL (4)
OFF
@PHI (3)
@ HOU (3)
AZ (12):
SF (3)
OFF
LAD (3)
OFF
@ PIT (3)
@ COL (3)
SD (14):
PIT (4)
COL (3)
@ SF (3)
@ MIL (4)
LAD (13):
OFF
@ COL (4 - includes DAY/NIGHT DH 9/18)
@ AZ (3)
OFF
COL (3)
SF (3)
COL (13):
OFF
LAD (4 - includes DAY/NIGHT DH 9/18)
@ SD (3)
OFF
@ LAD (3)
AZ (3)
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