Lou's Six Man Bench
Spring training is nothing if not repetitive story lines, but Cubs manager Lou Piniella is once again hinting that he'd like to carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers.
Piniella admitted he doesn't have a set number of days off for
players. That won't be an issue until the regular season starts. Right
now, the Cubs have other matters to resolve. While thinking out loud,
Piniella said he'd like to carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers if
possible. The team isn't sure how to slot some players -- newcomer
Aaron Miles, for example. Piniella wants to see them on the field, and
the Cubs will have 39 spring games to evaluate the team.
It's not going to happen, it never does...but that won't stop me from taking a look at what the team might look like. And it's exponentially more interesting than where Alfonso Soriano might bat this year (hint: leadoff).
* indicates a lefty
# indicates a switch-hitter
↑ indicates out of options
C - Geovany Soto↑
1B - Derrek Lee
2B - *Mike Fontenot
3B - Aramis Ramirez
SS - Ryan Theriot
LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - *Kosuke Fukudome
RF - #Milton Bradley
C - *Paul Bako
OF - Reed Johnson↑
OF - *Joey Gathright↑
INF - #Aaron Miles↑
INF - Luis Rivas
INF/OF - *Micah Hoffpauir
#1 - Carlos Zambrano
#2 - Ryan Dempster
#3 - *Ted Lilly
#4 - Rich Harden↑
#5 - Aaron Heilman
#1 (Closer) - Carlos Marmol
#2 (Set-Up) - Kevin Gregg
#3 - Luis Vizcaino
#4 - *Neal Cotts↑
#5 - Chad Gaudin↑
#6 - Angel Guzman↑
I ignored the players with six or more years of service time regarding their options as that is inferred. But barring a trade or some cuts, that would leave Sean Marshall off the team and you can see why it would never happen.
Now, if by some miracle it does happen, I think Rivas has the upper hand for the fabled 6th bench player because this flexibility thing has clearly jumped the shark and he's got that mystical veteran presence. But there are other options, now available in a tidy table form. The Cubs do have an extra 40-man roster spot, so it won't be an issue to add an NRI to the team.
||2009 Predicted CHONE wRAA
I'm using wRAA(weighted Runs Above Average) which is based off of wOBA (weighted On-Base Average) as they normalize it for the minor leagues. Here's the brief explanation of wOBA and save me the, "this is a BS stat" complaining. I'm not saying it's the end all, be all, but it tells us what we need to know here about their predicted offensive output.
Do we really need another statistic? Yes, we do. Instead of trying to
take two statistics (OBP, SLG) and combine and correct their flaws in
the hopes of getting one number, we prefer to start from scratch.
Furthermore, by recasting the number onto the OBP scale, it makes it
much easier for the reader to get a grasp on the number. wOBA is
weighted on-base average (we call it an average rather than a
percentage). When you look at wOBA numbers throughout the book, just
think OBP, and you’ll be fine. In other words, an average hitter is
around 0.340 or so, a great hitter is 0.400 or higher, and a poor
hitter would be under 0.300.
Then they just take the woBA and translate it to a runs value to make it even easier to understand (all this is available on their Fangraphs page). It's a projection anyway and a lot of it is based off minor league numbers and limited major league playing time, so don't get too caught up about it. Plus any player that sneaks on to the Cubs bench in 2009 will do so almost solely on their spring training performance. What we do know is that So Taguchi isn't very good at hitting a baseball and Richie Robnett had a terrible 2008 season.
Now, if by some miracle Lou manages to make this six man bench work, I have to admit I dream of a Jason Dubois/Micah Hoffpauir lefty-righty combo coming off the bench. It would be a healthy bit of power late in the game to pinch-hit for the quartet of scrap and pitchers that might be in the lineup. Of course, it's also a healthy dose of strikeouts and marginal defense at best. You should also remember that Brad Snyder is out of options, a player the Cubs picked off waivers late last year from the Cleveland Indians. For whatever reason - as Arizona Phil has explained - the Cubs didn't immediately place him right back on waivers since they had the last claim and if he made it through to them the first time, he would have likely gone through the second time. So if he does have a good spring training and the team can't find a spot for him, they'll have to DFA him and this time someone will likely grab them for themselves.
I've always been a fan of the six-man bench over carrying 12 pitchers, but the 12 pitchers has become standard operating procedure by now and when you're afraid to use a relief pitcher for more than an inning, it's understandable why. One excessive extra inning game and your bullpen is taxed for two to three days. The only way I could see a six-man bench working is if the Cubs go with a four-man rotation early and put Rich Harden or another starter on the disabled list coming out of camp. And I guess that's as likely as Jason Dubois ever seeing the majors again.
UPDATE: I forgot about Jake Fox in my original post, but he
might be an even better bet than Dubois. He's even trying out third
base in camp according to Wittenmyer.
Which direction is wind blowing today? With Lackey a groundball pitcher, it might help Cubs if it is blowing in today and a 2-1 game instead of a 10-6 game.
I have convinced myself that Hammel's second half struggles were due to minor injuries and fatigue so with the extra rest he is going to be lights out.
Benji Molina is out of lineup
Yes. Unfortunately, as many of us, I have seen this movie before. Do not care for Hammel, and unlike other managers Joe will pull the plug quickly at least. I hope before things were to get out of hand.
Many of us are like "abused spouses" or whatever - with this Cubs stuff. You get hurt so many times, the trust rapidly erodes.
If the Cubs can get to Lackey early, its gonna be a big key to a W or L.
No idea what will happen. The Cards are the Cards and they have come back from 2-1 holes twice in the last 4 years, so I don't see them in panic mode at all. If anything, I expect the Cubs to be pressing more than the Cards today.
I want the Cubs to win because it would be great for the city, and great for the fans. But more than anything, I want the Cubs to win so I can see this team play for at least one more week this year. Never enjoyed watching a team more than this year.
Just to remember how far we have come: last year's opening day lineup was Bonifacio, Lake, Castro, Rizzo, Olt, Castillo, Schierholz, Barney, and Samardzija. It's been a fun ride this year!
BRADSBEARD: I haven't noticed any new rule or a change in the interpretation of an existing rule happening in Advanced Instructs, I don't know what rules will be tested in the AFL, although almost all recent rule changes and new interpretations of existing rules (the home plate collision rule, replay, time clock between innings, et al) do get their start in the AFL.
AZ Phil: I've heard that the AFL will be testing out a new force out rule that would affect break-up plays (like the Utley play). Have you heard anything about this new rule and any details about it? Are they testing it out at the advanced instructs as well?
Pretty sure I already know the answer to this, but since I will be in NYC next week I want to confirm... If the Cubs were to advance to the NLCS, the winner of LAD/NYM would have home field based on being a division winner (as opposed to Cubs by virtue of better record), correct?
CUBSTER: This "hammy" is on the other leg I heard last night. See you at the ballyard today young man!
Oh what do you know, Cubster? Go back to your day job.
--- Ducks, puts on Cardinals cap, runs.
Russell had a severe hamstring last year while with the A's system, forcing him to miss the first half of 2014. I've even wondered if his injury last year was a component of Billy Beane putting him on the trade market. He was quoted saying that last year's injury was a 10 out of 10 when it happened. Last night he said his hamstring soreness was a 1/1.5 out of 10. Hamstring injuries are tricky though, so I'd expect the medical team to be overly cautious here.
...I want to reinforce the observation that there was no sea of red in the crowd. The usual Cardinal fans roaming the stadium were few and far between.
Also, almost every 2 strike pitch brought the fans to their feet. Good for those in knee rehab.
"1st team hit hit 6HR in a game in the postseason." rises above obvious...i checked it with the official fact-finding commission of Douche, Douche, and Douchestein. they agreed with you, but they're a bunch of f'n douches so who cares?
btw, the cubs are 2-1 in the post-season series.