The Fantasy Reporter
I know you all come here for your Cubs fix and I don't pretend to be some sort of fantasty baseball expert (that would be readers "The Joe" and "JD"), but my fantasy draft is Saturday and I feel like sharing. I much prefer a points league over the traditional 5x5 roto leagues, but mostly the same advice applies. If anything, the points league is a bettter reflection of the reality of baseball and our playing fantasy baseball gives us a better understanding of the sport itself. If you do play in a roto league, you need to be more worried about stolen bases than I am.
And just so you know that I'm not completely full of it, I have been playing since 1999 and besides one very unfortunate injury-riddled season, I usually finish "in the money" so to speak. I don't alway take the league, but I'm almost always in contention. Once again, not trying to pass myself off as some fantasy baseball expert, but you could do worse. If anything, I hope to convince you to acquire Troy Tulowitzki if you're in a keeper league. He's going to be a monster for the next six seasons.
So here's some general draft strategies and ideas on a handful of players. Those who play in a league with me are probably going to be wondering why there are so many players mentioned that are on my current team or have been recently or I've inquired about. Well, I liked them for a reason, so there you go.
I don't have any fancy system with some trademarked name that I follow or some strict regiment of who to draft in which slot. I do have some guidelines though.
1-5: Offense, Offense, Offense - no time for risk-taking and pitchers are inherently a risk.
6-10: Start looking for pitching and watch for the inevitable run on closers that is going to happen. There will still be some value offensive picks though on position players that people have forgotton about.
11-20: A lovely song and dance to fill out your roster with a mix of value picks and need.
21-25: High Risk, High Reward and Catchers...fill out the roster if needed, but I usually start looking for prospects or troubled assets and injury risks here.
- Other than a few select pitchers, I generally try to land what I
consider sure thing offensive players in the first 5 rounds. Those
few select pitchers this year are Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels and Roy
Halladay. There's plenty of other good to great pitchers, but I'm
worried about Johan and Webb's arm issues, C.C's fatness and the lack
of run support that Jake Peavy will get this year. Everyone else you
can flip a coin if they'll be effective or healthy in my opinion, so
don't waste a top pick on them. There's a good chance you can find just as good a pitcher in round 10-20 as the top 5.
- Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, Brian McCann and Russ Martin are the only catchers worth taking in the top 10 rounds. Don't talk yourself into anyone else. Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada are in the discussion, but you have to really worry about their injury risks. Otherwise, I'll pass until Round 20 or later (we have 25 rounds) and grab whatever is left and play the waiver wire over the year. The second tier of catchers are Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta and a Chris Snyder/Miguel Montero combo from the Dbacks. Everyone else is completely interchangeable over the year and you're probably better off just trying to play the hot-hand.
- I'm a big fan of good players that had a down year usually due to injury or unexplained phenomenon. Some examples from 2008 include Fausto Carmona, Justin Verlander, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Rios, Alfonso Soriano, Howie Kendrick and Aaron Hill.
- I'm thoroughly intrigued by Adam Dunn this season. I think he feels he has something to prove and - as a bonus - qualifies at 1B and LF. He also had an extremely low BABIP last season.
- Never underestimate the Coors factor or the Ballpark factor for left-handed hitters in Texas. Matt Murton, Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Stewart are worth watching in Colorado, just keep an eye out for who might be winning the job out of spring training. Everyone knows about Josh Hamilton by now, but Chris Davis and Jarrod Saltamacchia are good high upside guys..
- I constantly fight myself over closers. In our points league which has an innings limit, relievers and closers are quite valuable as they offer a much higher innings per points average than a starter. In a roto league, you'll get the benefit of more strikeouts per inning pitched. On the other hand, closers are always available during the year and you'll particularly want to pay attention to the Tigers, Mariners and Cardinals this season. So I'm never sure how early I should start picking closers, but I will say that if you don't get stuck with a complete dud, they're always tradeable during the season. Papelbon, Rivera and K-Rod are pretty much sure things this year and I'm quite high on Jonathon Broxton taking the role in Los Angeles.
- I'm pretty good at picking players a year too early from their breakout season. For example, keep an eye out for Alex Gordon and Kelly Johnson this season.
- An easy way to look for overrated versus underrated is their BABIP or batting average in balls in play. Couple it with line drive percentage and you have a good idea of players to watch out for, whether on the rebound or to slump. From Fangraphs, the top 10 highest BABIP last year, if they're in bold, they had a line drive percentage below 20% which means I'd avoid them unless everyone else in your league is reading the same thing. A BABIP over .330 is usually tough to sustain, anything over .360 is virtually impossible to sustain, unless you're Ichiro Suzuki.
- M. Bradley (.396)
- C. Jones (.388)
- M. Ramirez (.373)
- F. Lewis (.367)
- Matt Kemp (.363)
- M. Holliday (.361)
- N. Markakis (.351)
- B.J. Upton (.351)
- J. Mauer (.350)
- R. Ludwick (.349)
Now the flip-side, 10 lowest BABIP hitters:
- P. Konerko (.247)
- K. Millar (.249)
- M. Ellis (.249)
- N. Swisher (.251)
- J. Giambi (.257)
- A. Dunn (.262)
- M. Jacobs (.264)
- J. Kendall (.267)
- E. Encarnacion (.267)
- R. Hernandez (.269)
I wouldn't take a chance on all those guys, but Konerko, Dunn, Swisher, Giambi and Jacobs are certainly very interesting.
The BABIP numbers are even more reliable when it comes to pitchers. The top 10 unluckiest last year, where league average is about .290.
- K. Millwood(.366)
- I. Snell (.358)
- L. Hernandez (.345)
- N. Robertson (.343)
- A. Petitte (.339)
- M. Parra (.337)
- A.J. Burnett (.328)
- J. Vazquez (.328)
- Z. Duke (.327)
- J. Beckett (.327)
I'd still avoid Livan Hernandez and Kevin Millwod, but they should be slightly better for next year. Everyone else is probably being underrated in your drafts. And now the flipside, the 10 luckiest pitchers last year.
- D. Bush (.245)
- T. Wakefield (.247)
- A. Galarraga (.247)
- G. Smith (.258)
- S. Olsen (.266)
- D. Matsuzaka (.267)
- J. Guthrie (.267)
- J. Saunders (.267)
- G. Floyd (.267)
- C. Hamels (.270)
Now pitchers with knuckleballs and really good change-ups have been able to beat the league average BABIP consistently so I wouldn't worry much about Wakefield or Hamels. Smith and Saunders throw a healthy amount of change-ups, but I can't speak to their quality and their minor league numbers don't suggest they can maintain that level of luck.
I'll come back Wednesday with a more thorough positional breakdown.
Please take a moment today to vote on the best Cubs Season Ever.
Hey, AZ, are you as high on DJ Wilson as your pal John Arguello is?
Phil, I just wanted to say thank you for diligently tracking the Cubs prospects in extended spring training and sharing your knowledge with us. It's remarkable how you're able to keep box scores for multiple games at once. I, and I'm sure others here, appreciate the data and insight you provide for us.
Boy, that is a nifty K:BB ratio Hudson has going at almost 4:1!
I hope he continues improving.
And of course the Bucs won again playing AZ (not PHIL). They dont seem to have a problem yet with the bottom feeders.
They picked up 3 games this last week.
I'm looking forward to them coming to the Chi.
Don't mess with the SI jinx. Since the Javy/Cubs cover came out, he is 2-for-20 with no walks.
BRADSBEARD: If all three are assigned to Eugene, the Cubs can play Galindo, Paredes, and Paniagua at the same time by moving Paredes between SS-3B-DH, Galindo between 3B-1B-DH, and Paniagua between 1B-LF-DH.
The Cubs like to have their players (including their minor leaguers) learn to play more than one position even if they eventually are projected to settle at one spot, and I suspect that will be reflected at Eugene, with just about everybody who will be assigned there able to play at least two positions.
Thanks - at least the scorer was consistent
I don't think the error call was completely out of the blue but the ball took a very bad hop and would have taken a very good play to get it. Same with one of the Stella throws where I think it could have easily been ruled a hit. Neither were cut and dry calls though imo.
chased a high fastball...
I think his BABIP during his run has been around .950
Great stuff CubbyBlue!!! I think it inspired today's six spot as well.
That's all fine and good, but I think it's short-changing the Arrieta-like affect of his beard
Was the error scored on Zobrist's third ab ruled correctly? Ron was saying that it was a pretty tough chance for the fielder
Did anybody see that Zobrist strikeout?
That was extremely disappointing.
Strangest win of the year, and one of the sweetest. Twice I thought it was easily in the bag, then after the first 2 hitters in the 9th I thought all was lost. Big game for Grimm, Strop & Rondon. But, man, those Cards can hit for power.
Very satisfying, gut-check win today. The beers on the trip back to Chicago are going to taste fantastic.
It's still very early but this game felt very important to me and probably knocked 2 years off my life. Seemed like every inning was big.