2009 Rule 4 Draft
The MLB Rule 4 Draft (AKA “First-Year Player Draft”) starts at 6 PM ET tomorrow (Tuesday) and will continue Wednesday and Thursday. The first three rounds (plus supplemental rounds) will be televised “live” on the MLB network Tuesday night (round #1 on the MLB cable channel and the other two rounds and supplemental picks on mlb.com TV), with the balance of the draft to be conducted via conference call (rounds 4-30 on Wednesday, and rounds 31-50 on Thursday).
The Cubs will have the 31st pick in the 1st round, followed by the 79th overall pick (2nd round), pick #109 overall (3rd round), and #140 overall (4th round), and then every 30 picks (#170, #200, #230, #280, etc) after that until the 50 rounds are completed. More than 1,500 players will be selected by the 30 MLB clubs before the drafting is finished.
Clubs have until August 15th to sign draft picks who have college eligibility remaining, but there is no deadline for signing college seniors who have exhausted their eligibility. Players who are not selected in the draft can sign with any club as a Non-Drafted Free-Agent (NDFA), with the same deadline as drafted players applying to NDFA.
If a club fails to sign a 1st (or 2nd) round pick in a given year, it gets a replacement pick one slot lower in the 1st (or 2nd) round of the following year's draft. (Not signing a 3rd round pick nets a club a compensation pick between the 3rd and 4th rounds in the following year's draft).
The Cubs have a history of drafting players they like two years in a row, most-recently TCU RHP Andrew Cashner (30th round in 2007 and then 1st round in 2008), Clemson 3B Marquez Smith (35th round in 2006 and then 8th round in 2007). and Stanford OF Sam Fuld (24th round in 2003 and then 10th round in 2004), so don’t be surprised if the Cubs select a player they drafted (but did not sign) a year ago.
Texas A&M RHP Alex Wilson (Cubs 10th round pick in 2008 who is now rated the 52nd best prospect in the draft by Baseball America) might be a target if he is still available when the Cubs make their selection in the 2nd round (#79 overall), or perhaps the Cubs might take another shot at New Mexico RHP Cole White (Cubs 30th round selection out of Paris JC in 2008 now rated the 157th best prospect in the draft by BA) if he is available when the Cubs make their 4th or 5th round pick. The Cubs supposedly offered Wilson (who was rehabbing from post-2007 Tommy John Surgery a year ago) $600K after they selected him in the 10th round in 2008, but he wanted “first-round money” ($1.5M), so he declined the Cubs offer and returned to A&M, while White was a member of a band back home in Paris, TX, called “Turning Point” and wrote a song that was nominated for a Grammy.
Two names often mentioned in connection with the Cubs as a possible 2009 1st round pick are outfielders A. J. Pollock (Notre Dame) and Brett Jackson (Cal).
Last year, the Cubs signed 32 of their 51 selections, including 26 of their first 27 picks. Of the 32 who signed, two have subsequently been released, and one retired. Only eight of the Cubs 51 selections in the 2008 Rule 4 Draft were high school players, and the Cubs signed three of them (4th round pick C-IF Matt Cerda, 21st round pick INF Logan Watkins, and 22nd round selection RHP Tarlandus Mitchell). The Cubs also selected only eight high school players in the 2007 draft and signed only two (#1 pick 3B Josh Vitters and 12th rounder RHP Ryan Acosta), so obviously the trend under Scouting Director Tim Wilken is toward drafting college players. The Cubs have also given $3M+ in signing bonuses to amateur players from Korea, Australia, and Taiwan over the past couple of years, making the First-Year Player Draft somewhat less important than it would be if the Cubs were not actively pursuing players in Asia and Australia.
This will be Wilken’s fourth draft since joining the Cubs as Scouting Director in December 2005.
Here are last year's Cubs Rule 4 selections, and where they are now:
NOTE: Players who signed with Cubs are in bold
* bats or throws left
# bats both
2008 RULE 4 DRAFT
1. Andrew Cashner, P (TCU) – at Daytona
1-S. * Ryan Flaherty, SS (Vanderbilt) – at Peoria
2. Aaron Shafer, P (Wichita State) – at Peoria
3. Chris Carpenter, P (Kent State) - at Peoria
4. * Matt Cerda, C/INF (Oceanside HS – Oceanside, CA) – at Fitch Park (EXST)
5. Justin Bristow, P (East Carolina) – at Peoria
6. Josh Harrison, 2B (U. of Cincinnati) – at Peoria
7. Luis Flores, C (Oklahoma State) – at Daytona
8. * James Leverton, P (Texas Tech) – at Daytona
9. Jay Jackson, P (Furman) – at Tennessee
10. Alex Wilson, P (Texas A&M) – DID NOT SIGN
11. Toby Matchulat, P (Wabash Valley CC) – at Fitch Park (EXST)
12. * Jake Opitz, 2B (Nebraska) – at Daytona
13. Tony Campana, OF (U. of Cincinnati) – at Daytona
14. Dan McDaniel, P (Chabot JC) – at Daytona
15. Casey Coleman, P (Florida Gulf Coast) – at Tennessee
16. * Ryan Keedy, 1B (UAB) – at Daytona
17. Jon Nagel, P (Independence CC) – at Fitch Park (EXST)
18. * Jeffrey Beliveau, P (Florida Atlantic) – at Peoria
19. # David Macias, OF (Vanderbilt) – at Peoria
20. Jericho Jones, OF (Louisiana Tech) – at Daytona
21. * Logan Watkins, SS (Goddard HS – Goddard, KS) – at Fitch Park (EXST)
22. Tarlandus Mitchell, P (Alto HS – Alto, TX) – at Fitch Park (EXST)
23. * Ryan Sontag, OF/P (Arizona State) – at Fitch Park (EXST)
24. David Cales, P (St. Xavier U.) – at Daytona
25. Rebel Ridling, 1B (Oklahoma State) – at Peoria
26. Josh Whitllock, P (West Virginia) – at Fitch Park (EXST)
27. Sonny Gray, P (Smyrna HS – Smyrna, TN) DID NOT SIGN (enrolled at Vanderbilt)
28. TeWayne Willis, OF (Lincoln Memorial U.) – RELEASED 3/09
29. Sean Buckley, 3B (King HS – Tampa, FL) – DID NOT SIGN (enrolled at South Florida)
30. Cole White, P (Paris JC) – DID NOT SIGN (transferred to New Mexico)
31. # Kyle Wilson, 3B (Hill JC) – DID NOT SIGN (transferred to NC State)
32. * Kurt Calvert, OF (Missouri) - RETIRED 5/09
33. Sean Hoorelbeke, 1B (Central Michigan) – at Fitch Park (EXST)
34. Bubba O’Donnell, P (High Point) – RELEASED 3/09
35. Ross Vagedes, OF/P (Wright State) – DID NOT SIGN
36. Michael Brenly, C (UNLV) – at Peoria
37. Erik Hamren, P (Saddleback CC) – at Peoria
38. Sean McNaughton, OF (BYU) – DID NOT SIGN
39. Jordan Brown, P (LSU) – DID NOT SIGN
40. * Jared McDonald, SS (Pima CC) – DID NOT SIGN (transferred to Arizona State)
41. Jordan Petraitis, SS (Miami of Ohio) – DID NOT SIGN
42. Derek Riley, P (Chandler-Gilbert CC) – DID NOT SIGN (transferred to Arkansas State)
43. Jesse Ginley, P (Dunnellon HS – Dunnellon, FL) – DID NOT SIGN (enrolled at St. Petersburg JC)
44. David Doss, C (South Alabama) – DID NOT SIGN
45. * Ashton Florko, P (U. of British Columbia) – DID NOT SIGN
46. Tony Zych, P (St Rita HS – Chicago, IL) – DID NOT SIGN (enrolled at U. of Louisville)
47. * Chad Cregar, OF (Western Kentucky) - DID NOT SIGN
48. Dylan Moseley, P (Louisiana Tech) – DID NOT SIGN
49. Hunter Scantling, P (Espicopal HS – Jacksonville, FL) - DID NOT SIGN (enrolled at Florida State)
50. Pete Levitt, P (Pitt CC) – DID NOT SIGN
Eric Allen, P (King College) – RELEASED 11/08
Pat Mahoney, C (Connecticut) – RELEASED 4/09
Tommy Mejia, P (Dominican College) – RELEASED 4/09
Mike Perconte, P (Murray State) - at Peoria
Chris Weimer, OF (U. of Nebraska – Omaha) – at Fitch Park (EXST)
kuhl is a righty, not a lefty.
i think maddon might think kuhl is a lefty, too. i wonder what the reasoning is for baez leading off vs a rightie.
"trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."
that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that point would have jumped out more.
crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?
And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.
But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.
early tim tebow stuff rolling in...
ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power
it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.
LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.
Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).
it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.
plus, the kids deserve it.
The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either.
That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy.
Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.
"i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date."
This level of discourse is #charming.
I would be having this discussion with anyone who (a) blathered on ad nauseum about the topic. (See, "Olt, Mike, not given an opportunity") or (b) responded directly to what I posted (which you did).
Have a nice day.
what would you do without me? aside from having your posting content here cut by 75%+?
i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date.
In this instance, yes, I care more about the result of this big thing that isn't really a big thing.
Fangraphs WAR #s include baserunning and Hamilton is elite at that. He leads in SBs with the 54 and and has an 87% rate which is really good. I'm sure once he gets on base he's able to take the extra base quite often too. Both those things will up his overall WAR value.
The differences between BR and FG WAR is pretty well documented online and thus If there are discrepancies it's fairly easy to figure out why. It's fairly well accepted that BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is better at predicting future value.
i have no doubt at all you quit reading at that point. you're very enamored with outcomes without caring what it takes to get there.
the fact it's exploitable, especially without someone to cover the running game for him, as well it's evolution in how people are testing possible exploits is interesting to some people...to me...i'm some people...hurrah.
some people want to check the boxscore to see who won, some want to know how it went down.
I read it as him saying it's not really that much of a concern and that the one time it really cost Lester, vs. K.C., was an anomaly.
if jeff says it, it's cool...when i say it, it's straight from the mouth of hitler.
aside from the lack of jeff touching on the insane leads runners take and lester's inability to throw if he's fielding, this is a lot of what i've said about the issue.
exploitable, needs his own personal catcher to control his shortcomings, relies on his ability to get outs along with his personal catcher keeping runners in check before things become further exploited...