The Cubs Offensive Offense

The Cubs struggles offensively are obviously no secret and it's been a team wide affliction that I don't even think a roll in the hay with Amy Winehouse could fix. I took a quick look at their OPS numbers since May 1st:

Lee .976
R. Johnson .906
Theriot .785
Soto .756
Bradley .747
Hoffpauir .682
Fontenot .678
Fukudome .670
Soriano .636
K. Hill .620

You could pick any arbitrary date and come up with equally appalling numbers such as:

Theriot hasn't taken a walk since June 9. For the month, he's 12-for-49
for a .245 batting average. His OBP for June is .296, and his slugging
is .327. He's walked twice and struck out 12 times this month. For the
season, Theriot has 18 walks and 39 strikeouts. Last year, he put up an
OBP of .387, walking 73 times and striking out 58. His isolated power
(slugging minus BA) of .147 is still way up from last year's .052. So
that's definitely a good thing.

There's also "Soriano Shame Watch", his numbers since he was embarrassed at a WWE event.

108 PA, 152/222/263 485 OPS, 15 H, 2 HR, 7 R, 5 2B, 31 K, 9 BB

So Soriano can get moved down, Lou can tinker with the lineup or just draw numbers from 1 through 9 to pick the day's lineup, but it's all just trying to put $100 lipstick on the ugliest fucking pig we've seen wearing blue pinstripes since 2006

- To say the least , Jim Hendry didnt't have a good offseason. After displaying the Midas Touch the previous two offseasons, pretty much signing and getting rid of all...okay most...of the right players, he's shown whatever is the exact opposite of the Midas Touch...shall we call it the "Number Two Touch"...where everything turns to shit? Jason Marquis goes from overpaid 5th starter to the league leader in wins with a decent ERA, Mark DeRosa has 12 HR's while the Cubs are a third and second basemen short, Michael Wuertz is striking out the AL as Milton Bradley is pretty much doing everything wrong, Kevin Gregg has been the very definition of mediocre and Aaron Miles is Neifi without the exclamation point.

But for all his past sins, he at least made the right decision on Angel Guzman. The über-prospect from the early part of the decade has had his injury issues to say the least and with the Cubs facing a roster and bullpen crunch, Hendry and Co. could have traded the righty. But Guzman's rewarded the organizations good faith in him with a 2.67 ERA to date along with 25 K's to 10 BB's even though he's a good bet to be one of the "tender" arms in the bullpen that Lou spoke of recently. 

Of course this is a trivial point as the team struggles at .500 and this is not meant to blow sunshine up Hendry's derriere just for the fun of it. Rather, to merely point out amidst this cloud of doom hanging over the city of Chicago that a few rays of sunshine are still poking through.

Comments

So you're saying that waking up next to Amy Winehouse in the morning would NOT make a player angry enough to start clobbering the ball? I dispute that notion. Also, Rob, did you change your RSS feed URL? The last headline on my google page is the Miles Fox Trot headline.

I am still getting the feed with new posts.

I'm saying there's not a nasty enough slumpbuster out there right now.

and no, RSS feed should be the same...

Speaking of karmic events, what's Marmol's K/BB ratio since he was seen on the town without his expecting bride?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n...

2.02 ERA, 13.1 IP, 13 BB, 12 K, .396 OPS against, 2-0 with 3 holds...

ugly 0.70 WPA along with all those walks...

I guess, didn't see, Joe Buck's show premiered last night on HBO and he made Magic Johnson look like Johnny Carson-

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/rich...

http://thebiglead.com/?p=14997

Hopefully he didn't read any of his father's bad poetry.

You know, as flat-out terrible as this poem is -- laughable, really -- it nevertheless does make me smile inside and, being across the pond, also very much nostalgic for a good summer time game. Thanks, Jack Buck.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/poetry/po_365.shtml

Then Lange showed up. His opening joke, “TMZ is your favorite website?
What’s your 2nd, suckingcock.com?” was terrific and hilarious, but Buck
was clearly not expecting it, and as was the case all night, he didn’t
take it well.

a few seconds later Lange says...."How about going to a sports website?"

of course, Joe Buck actually hates sports.

http://awfulannouncing.blogspot.com/2008/07/joe-bu...

While I'm not a fan of the Howard Stern show, I fucking hate Joe Buck. He's a jackass announcer who expects people to respect him despite the fact that he hasn't done anything to earn it except be related to Jack Buck.

I'm glad Artie gave it to Joe Buck. He has it coming.

"Soriano Shame Watch"

This is good. This is good.

You forgot to mention the other uber good call besides Guzman - NOT getting Jake Peavy. At least this year.

Everything else Hendry touched, is, as you say, covered in shit.

Nobody can predict an injury like that. It's just a lucky thing the Cubs didn't get him, thus I wouldn't necessarily call it a "Hendry success story".

Peavy hurt himself in a game against the Cubs. If they'd gotten him earlier, that injury doesn't happen. Who knows how he'd have pitched for the Cubs.

Or he has the same injury in his first start of the year.

Imo, in this "snake-bit year", ROB G, nails it.

Somehow he'd have gotten hurt on the Cubs. No doubt in my mind.

Whoops - I mean TRN nails it...

If they'd gotten him earlier, that injury doesn't happen. Who knows how he'd have pitched for the Cubs.
---
or he could have been pitching for the WSux vs Z tonight if Reinsdufus had guaranteed the last year of the JP contract. Since Peavy won the opening game in SD, we might have had just an 0-3 instead of 0-6 road trip in StL/SD.

Fun with altered timelines

...oh oh, there is a bizarre rift in space and here comes the Enterprise B and bizarro Jim Hendry and the alternate timeline Cubs through it.

Not a big fan of OPS.

I know, it's probably a good and meaningful stat to measure a player's offense, but it's a derivative stat that doesn't really translate into anything.

Batting average is number of hits divided by number of ABs. Simple and clean. Most hitters who go 1-for-3 will raise their average. Similar concept for OBP.

ERA is average number of earned runs per 9 innings. Simple and clean. Same with BB or K per 9 innings. Most pitchers who pitch 6 innings and give up 2 runs will see their ERA go down.

What, exactly does OPS represent? Not the math -- what does it represent in terms of what a player does? How does one descibe OPS?

"How does one describe OPS?"

OPS tells you how valuable a player has been at the plate.

It's not really a derivative stat as much as a cumulative one, and obviously it has it's flaws, but if you want one stat to describe how well a player has been doing then OPS is probably the best one that doesn't take a week to figure out. It's the hitter's equivalent to ERA. Both don't tell the whole story, though.

you're kidding right?

OBP+SLG...both are driven by batting average sure, but 10 for 30 and a .300 BA doesn't tell me as much as knowing if they're getting on base or driving the ball...

I could use something fancier, but OPS is readily available and understood...well by most everyone not named billybucks.

geez, how often does Neal have a more dignified response than me? I feel bad now. apologies to billybucks for my snark....

You guys are making my point. Saying it's a great measure of offensive production doesn't answer the question.

I have yet to see a description of what it really represents, other than adding two stats together.

To me, OPS is like a QB rating in the NFL -- everyone knows what a good score is, but nobody can really describe it in simple terms.

OPS is On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage.

Neal gave you the equation, in regards to your original question of what it represents, ability to get on-base (or not make outs) plus the ability to hit for power...the 2 most important and true abilities of a hitter.

This is one of the reasons why I often just avoid stats in general. There are people out there like Billybucks way smarter than me, and I just don't get it.

So if we look at total runs score by a team charted up against batting average you see very little correlation and I think that's why a lot of people just toss the batting average stat away. But you are totally right, it has a concrete meaning: percent of official at bats that guy gets a hit.

On the other hand if you plot team OPS up against number of runs scored you see very strong correlation.

So I could be wrong (as I often am), but I think the numbers support OPS as a better indicator of run-generating ability. To answer your question "how does one describe OPS?" I would say this: getting on base and driving the ball.

A chart I created a couple years ago... it shows OPS v. runs scored over the period of 3 or 4 years.

Click Here

Which is the reason it's use has become widespread so quickly. Rob G may know off the top of his head, but there's some better ratio (.8 X SLG + 1.1 X OBP or something like that) that even more accurately forecasts a teams' offensive output.

If that is correct it is surprising to me that OBP is weighted more heavily than SLG. I would have expected it to be the other way around. Learn something new everyday.

Don't have a copy on me, but that's one of the things they mentioned in "Moneyball". The single worst thing you can do as a batter is make an out (or really, 3 outs), but remember the 2004 Cubs if you need a point of reference for SLG vs OBP's relative merits.

in response to Neal and Ryno

THT came up with GPA

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossa...

1.8*OBP+SLG/4 (the divide four I guess put into a BA equivelant number for people to understand)

All the cool kids are using wOBA now which you can find at fangraphs and translates like GPA into a number that looks a lot like a batting average...I think it uses 1.7*OBP+SLG essentially

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/com...

BP's EQA is pretty good, "A measure of total offensive value per out..."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.p...

The Cubs are a little down this page

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/eqa20...

that works too, they use 1.5*OBP essentially along with counting SB and CS if I read that correctly. Curious that all the 3 outlets have slightly different multipliers, although I'm way too lazy to bother figuring out why. Considering BP has their own baserunning metric that goes beyond SB's, shouldn't they incorporate that?

I'd use BP more if their website and leaderboards didn't suck so bad to try to navigate and load. Amazing that THT and Fangraphs at probably 1/10th of the revenue can design more accessible websites...but I digress.

When I get home I'm going to scatter plot wOPA against runs scored to see if anything fun happens. I'm just a scatological geek like that.

Yeah, 100% agree on BP's website, pretty much hate it.

This headline reminds me of the NFL Fever commercial where Peyton Manning is playing Madden on Xbox Live with some kid and he says "You're defense is offensive." I still laugh about that. He's obviously in way too many commercials, but that's one of my favorites.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1_czp59tZs

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  • hendricks WHIP drops to 0.98 over 159 innings after throwing 7ip 3h 1bb 4k, 0r/er

    ERA down to 2.09 on the season.

    crazy good.

    crunch 1 min 43 sec ago view
  • I am pretty well fed up with the majority of home plate umps. Just terrible inconsistencies.

    The E-Man 4 min 47 sec ago view
  • Oh shit forgot about that
    Shark and Sczur right?

    jacos 19 min 17 sec ago view
  • Yes, football player?- check.

    The E-Man 26 min 33 sec ago view
  • jacos 40 min 7 sec ago view
  • If it was 2006 Hendry would be there w a Bible and a contract
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/77...

    jacos 3 hours 12 min ago view
  • he subscribes to my twitter, he's beyond TCR. #yolo #swag

    crunch 3 hours 50 min ago view
  • Whoops. Maddon must have been reading TCR (for his daily crunch) and got confused.

    CTSteve 3 hours 52 min ago view
  • kuhl is a righty, not a lefty.

    i think maddon might think kuhl is a lefty, too. i wonder what the reasoning is for baez leading off vs a rightie.

    crunch 4 hours 33 min ago view
  • "trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."

    that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that point would have jumped out more.

    crunch 5 hours 21 min ago view
  • crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?

    And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.

    But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.

    big_lowitzki 6 hours 25 min ago view
  • early tim tebow stuff rolling in...

    ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power

    it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.

    crunch 7 hours 11 min ago view
  • LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.

    Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).

    Arizona Phil 8 hours 57 min ago view
  • it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.

    plus, the kids deserve it.

    crunch 8 hours 58 min ago view
  • The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either. 

    That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy. 

    Arizona Phil 9 hours 5 min ago view
  • Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.

    Charlie 9 hours 41 min ago view