It's National Rumor Week
It's everyone's favorite time of the year, so gather the kids around the fire and let's speculate away to our heart's content.
Cardinals - Like those annoying folks that get their Christmas shopping done early, the Cards are probably done wheeling and dealing picking up Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa. They missed out on the Christmas sales and paid a steep price in prospects, but they should help a team that has basically been riding a 16-7 April to justify the spending spree.
Brewers - They found an early deal getting Felipe Lopez to play second base for them and you know they're searching far and wide for a starting pitcher. They seemed to scoff at adding Doug Davis into that Lopez deal, but looks like they have their sites set on Wisconsin native, Jarrod Washburn. Considering they have the third worst ERA in the league, and second worst among starters, I'm not sure adding Washburn and his Safeco-aided ERA is really gonna be much of a boost.
Astros - Quietly the best team in the Central since June, they've been pretty quiet in the rumor mill. Despite some reported financial struggles, Drayton McClane has a never quit mentality, so I wouldn't be surprised if they skip this deadline and look to make an August waiver trade if necessary.
Reds - Rumors abound that they were still looking for hitting, and they are in desperate need of some, but the current 6-game losing streak, has put them a lot closer to last than first. We'll see if they switch to sellers and start pawning off some of their bullpen or be bold and look to move Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo, although that's doubtful. Arthur Rhodes has received the most buzz so far as a player that could be moved.
Pirates - The Pittsburgh Perpetual Sellers still have a few chips they could move, namely Zach Duke, John Grabow, Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson. And Grabow and Sanchez sure wouldn't be poor additions to the Cubs. Sanchez though has that $8M vesting option based on plate appearances(600 since he made the All-Star team) which it looks like he'll hit, so that complicates matter significantly. If the Cubs could fit that $8M into the budget, my guess is they're going to try and keep second base flexible for a run at Chone Figgins this offseason.
Cubs - There's no doubt that Hendry is working the phone lines and trying to find something. Lou recently pined for that left-handed middle of the order bat again as Bradley isn't cutting it there with the walks and the singles. Chances are they'll just have to hope he figures it out in the last two-plus months.
A left-handed reliever seems to be the main focus. With the potential additions of B.J. Ryan and a trade, they could move Sean Marshall back to the rotation and try and weather the starting pitching injuries that have recently hit the team. Some names mentioned are Grabow, Rhodes, Joe Beimel and George Sherrill.
Knowing Hendry, he is looking to go big and I wouldn't be surprised if he's at least kicked the tires on Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee and then realized the sticker price is too high. I guess if there's one pitcher that may justify the load in prospects it could be Dan Haren. He's having another fantastic season in Arizona, with an obscene 7.42 K/BB ratio to follow up his 5.15 from last year. He's also signed through 2012 with a 2013 club option. The problem with Haren though is that he seems to tail off in the second half with a 3.08 career ERA before the break and 4.10 after the break, although the win percentage has stayed about the same if you're into that kind of thing. Plus he's an ex-Cardinal, so the Cubs can get back at the Cards for acquiring Mark DeRosa.
Bruce Levine also mentioned Mark Teahen and Orlando Cabrera in his article yesterday. I guess you can't have enough utility players in the NL. Cabrera has warmed up a bit since his awful start and brings solid defensive work with him and could move Ryan Theriot to second base at times.
We get a sideshow to go along with the actual show this week, as those super-hot Astros show up for a four-game set to take on our FIRST PLACE Cubs.
Sure, no marks and some inconsistencies in the witness's statements. But firing your gun into garage wall immediately after an argument and punching out your car window is still threatening and out of control behavior. There was certainly enough for MLB to think it warranted a 30-game suspension.
I'd prefer they be flexible with the closing situation depending on matchups. You're not really adding a lefty reliever if you use him strictly as a closer.
Stockpiling young talent isn't only for trading for someone like Chapman though. Even with an elite closer winning the World Series is basically a crap shoot so the key is to get to the playoffs as much as possible and not just mortgage everything on one year. Once you get there an elite bullpen certainly helps but the playoffs can be won by one hitter or starting pitcher getting hot (Murphy, Molina, Baumgardner) and a closer might not be able to stop that.
I'm also not crazy about press convictions. As the police report noted, there were no marks on the lady in question. There's a TMZ link (of course) to her police pictures, as well.
I think the only way this trade goes real bad is if Cubbery intervenes and Chapman is suddenly bad for some reason.
I am right there with you closing in on 60.
I don't care that much about "mortgaging" one player who is not only blocked by two guys, but is not ready to hit the majors for at least a couple years.
There is no reason why this team, this year, can't have a real shot at something NONE of us have experienced.
Further, I don't feel that even if they fall short that they have ruined their farm system.
I have made my opinion clear here, with others, Warren was shit on the Cubs save one spot start.
Trading for Warren, Warren sucking, getting Warren back for Chapman plus 3 prospects, sounds like Revenge of The Yankees on the former Boston executive. Old rivalries never die.
I pray to the heavens above Chapman doesn't suck for some reason, or he'll be booed out of town faster than a Todd Hundley revival meeting.
I'm kind of nostalgic for the Schwarber-for-Miller rumors.
This offseason, after some ridiculous playoff run and Chapman saving every game from here until the end of the postseason striking out 27/9innings, I welcome anyone to quote this thread and call me a dummy: I hate this trade, and my hate is 2 parts Chapman makes this team less likeable and 1 part that's a ridiculous overpay for 30 regular season innings and, at tops, 10 postseason innings. Already hoping they don't extend him.
btw...Thanks AZ Phil. I'm really enjoying your take on this trade.
I'm a bit disappointed on the Warren experience. Essentially they gave Castro away for crickets (OK, well they signed Zobrist with the Castro salary dump). Otherwise one might look at it as Chapman for Castro and our #1 minors prospect (Torres) + McKinney/Crawford. Seems pricey for a 2 month rental. We will see if this price tag is that steep in a relative way based on the remaining deadline deals for relievers.
Yep. One of the great things about this team (in addition to being really good at baseball) was the "likable" factor. Feels a bit different now. Who knows...maybe Chapman will be the king of the dance parties.
Here are some possible corresponding minor league moves we might see in the aftermath of the Chapman trade:
SOUTH BEND to MYRTLE BEACH: OF Donnie Dewees and INF Bryant Flete
EUGENE to SOUTH BEND: OF Robert Garcia and INF Vimael Machin
There is really no reason to replace Billy McKinney at Tennessee because both Chris Coghlan and Jorge Soler are doing their rehab at Tennessee.
And there are plenty of pitchers at Iowa. No need to replace Warren at AAA. .
I am 70 years old. The Cubs last played in the World Series in 1945. I was born in 1946. I hate to lose a prospect like Torres, but when the opportunity is there to get that World Series ring, you go for it. This was the idea in stock piling all this young talent. I would like to see Reddick added now and the Cubbies should be done.
I would expect Richard to accept an optional assignment because based on how he's played this season, there is a decent chance that he won't find work elsewhere. Rather stay and potentially get a ring. Same goes for Coghlan since he's struggled mightily this year.
Edwards should not go down. He's pitched very well and Maddon is very impressed with him. I would expect Grimm to go down for Cahill so he can get back on track (he's pitched better in July, but he's not getting enough appearances).
chitownmvp01: Indeed Clayton Richard would seem to be odd man out once Chapman reports, but Richard might accept a minor league assignment if he is promised a return to Chicago on 9/1 when MLB Active List rosters expand (Richard has minor league ioptions left).
The only player in the deal that would cause me a second thought is Gleyber Torres.
McKinney and Crawford are decent prospects but both are redundant/replaceable in the system and Warren was really only a middle-reliever or #6 starter, so to me it's really just Torres for Chapman.