It's National Rumor Week
It's everyone's favorite time of the year, so gather the kids around the fire and let's speculate away to our heart's content.
Cardinals - Like those annoying folks that get their Christmas shopping done early, the Cards are probably done wheeling and dealing picking up Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa. They missed out on the Christmas sales and paid a steep price in prospects, but they should help a team that has basically been riding a 16-7 April to justify the spending spree.
Brewers - They found an early deal getting Felipe Lopez to play second base for them and you know they're searching far and wide for a starting pitcher. They seemed to scoff at adding Doug Davis into that Lopez deal, but looks like they have their sites set on Wisconsin native, Jarrod Washburn. Considering they have the third worst ERA in the league, and second worst among starters, I'm not sure adding Washburn and his Safeco-aided ERA is really gonna be much of a boost.
Astros - Quietly the best team in the Central since June, they've been pretty quiet in the rumor mill. Despite some reported financial struggles, Drayton McClane has a never quit mentality, so I wouldn't be surprised if they skip this deadline and look to make an August waiver trade if necessary.
Reds - Rumors abound that they were still looking for hitting, and they are in desperate need of some, but the current 6-game losing streak, has put them a lot closer to last than first. We'll see if they switch to sellers and start pawning off some of their bullpen or be bold and look to move Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo, although that's doubtful. Arthur Rhodes has received the most buzz so far as a player that could be moved.
Pirates - The Pittsburgh Perpetual Sellers still have a few chips they could move, namely Zach Duke, John Grabow, Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson. And Grabow and Sanchez sure wouldn't be poor additions to the Cubs. Sanchez though has that $8M vesting option based on plate appearances(600 since he made the All-Star team) which it looks like he'll hit, so that complicates matter significantly. If the Cubs could fit that $8M into the budget, my guess is they're going to try and keep second base flexible for a run at Chone Figgins this offseason.
Cubs - There's no doubt that Hendry is working the phone lines and trying to find something. Lou recently pined for that left-handed middle of the order bat again as Bradley isn't cutting it there with the walks and the singles. Chances are they'll just have to hope he figures it out in the last two-plus months.
A left-handed reliever seems to be the main focus. With the potential additions of B.J. Ryan and a trade, they could move Sean Marshall back to the rotation and try and weather the starting pitching injuries that have recently hit the team. Some names mentioned are Grabow, Rhodes, Joe Beimel and George Sherrill.
Knowing Hendry, he is looking to go big and I wouldn't be surprised if he's at least kicked the tires on Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee and then realized the sticker price is too high. I guess if there's one pitcher that may justify the load in prospects it could be Dan Haren. He's having another fantastic season in Arizona, with an obscene 7.42 K/BB ratio to follow up his 5.15 from last year. He's also signed through 2012 with a 2013 club option. The problem with Haren though is that he seems to tail off in the second half with a 3.08 career ERA before the break and 4.10 after the break, although the win percentage has stayed about the same if you're into that kind of thing. Plus he's an ex-Cardinal, so the Cubs can get back at the Cards for acquiring Mark DeRosa.
Bruce Levine also mentioned Mark Teahen and Orlando Cabrera in his article yesterday. I guess you can't have enough utility players in the NL. Cabrera has warmed up a bit since his awful start and brings solid defensive work with him and could move Ryan Theriot to second base at times.
We get a sideshow to go along with the actual show this week, as those super-hot Astros show up for a four-game set to take on our FIRST PLACE Cubs.
FYI: Here's a good link explaining the differences in pitching WAR between Fangraphs and Basebell Reference.
ERA is just FIP with defense and luck. That being said if Hendricks gets his ERA under 2.00, he may have a legit shot.
That all being said I was looking at Fangraphs WAR and I should have been looking at Basebell Reference WAR because more voters use that. My bad and happy to admit my mistake unlike some people around here that shall not be named (just kidding CRUNCH, CRUNCH, CRUNCH!)
Yes. That is something up with which we will not put.
Right, then. Moving forward lets focus on simple declarative sentences, subject-verb agreement, and watch out for punctuation. Avoid prepositions at the end of sentences.
I love sabremetrics and think FIP and WAR can definitely predict future success. For the Cy though which is an award for current success I do think ERA and WHIP have a place. Also while Hendricks doesn't have the strikeouts he does have the highest soft hit contact and second lowest hard hit contact which does a lot to take fielding skill out of it.
To me if the ERA is close FIP and WAR should be used but right now its not. That said I agree with you Hendricks won't get it.
Can't get soft just because we have a big lead!
kershaw will be lucky to put in 160+ip. even though it projects to be an awesome 160+ip it's going to be extremely difficult for him to do much with that. he's still got minor league rehab game(s) to go through and he's only stretched out to 2ip with his last simulated rehab...it may take another couple weeks before he returns.
the numbers are awesome, but he's lost the equivalent of a good chunk of a top-tier pen arm's season in innings of work compared to the rest of the lot.
Kershaw, Fernandez and Syndergaard are your current leaders and all will be pitching meaningful games down the stretch that could make or break them. Hendricks will not be and his saber-numbers aren't anywhere close to those 3 and he'd split votes with Arrieta and Lester whom all are basically neck-and-neck for WAR and FIP. If Kershaw pitches like just okay Kershaw in September he deserves to win in a landslide. Voters are pretty much saber-inclined now so it would take a crazy shutout streak or something for Hendricks to jump in the picture.
AZ PHIL: With starters the likes of Edwin Jackson, even Chris Rusin or Michael Bowden could look good on their staff. At best, he is a #5-6. But as always, LH are at a premium.
Sure we would all want consistency. He is not even 24, has played 5 (!) positions this year. Can you imagine what is in his head? He was only a part-time player at 2 spots last year. And THEN think about hitting?? Cut him some slack...You sure are picky lately. First wishing #6 NL RBI guy Russell have a better average, and now an "unncessarily fancy pick". Geez tough crowd!
it's going to be hard to take down scherzer.
kershaw is supposedly coming back soon, though he'll probably need a good amount of deep innings to match up with scherzer...probably too late at this point. tanner roark, bumgarner, and hendricks are probably going to steal some votes along with kershaw.
I absolutely love Javy's game, and I love the way Maddon changed the perception of him as a ballplayer, but I really wish he would just make the routine plays routinely. On the ground ball in the 9th, he made an unnecessarily fancy pick. He made the play, but tried the same thing last night and made an error.
How many wins does Kyle need for serious Cy Young consideration? Would 17 be enough if he leads the league in ERA? My goodness, what a season -- makes a Dartmouth alum proud.
hendricks WHIP drops to 0.98 over 159 innings after throwing 7ip 3h 1bb 4k, 0r/er
ERA down to 2.09 on the season.
I am pretty well fed up with the majority of home plate umps. Just terrible inconsistencies.