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Last updated 3-17-2024
 
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PITCHERS: 17
Yency Almonte
Adbert Alzolay 
Javier Assad
Jose Cuas
Kyle Hendricks
* Shota Imanaga
Caleb Kilian
Mark Leiter Jr
* Luke Little
Julian Merryweather
Hector Neris 
Daniel Palencia
* Drew Smyly
* Justin Steele
Jameson Taillon
Hayden Wesneski 
* Jordan Wicks

NRI PITCHERS: 5 
Colten Brewer 
Carl Edwards Jr 
* Edwin Escobar 
* Richard Lovelady 
* Thomas Pannone 

CATCHERS: 2
Miguel Amaya
Yan Gomes

NRI CATCHERS: 2  
Jorge Alfaro 
Joe Hudson 

INFIELDERS: 7
* Michael Busch 
Nico Hoerner
Nick Madrigal
* Miles Mastrobuoni
Christopher Morel
Dansby Swanson
Patrick Wisdom

NRI INFIELDERS: 3 
David Bote 
Garrett Cooper
* Dominic Smith

OUTFIELDERS: 5
* Cody Bellinger 
Alexander Canario
# Ian Happ
Seiya Suzuki
* Mike Tauchman 

NRI OUTFIELDERS: 1 
* David Peralta

OPTIONED:
Kevin Alcantara, OF 
Michael Arias, P 
Ben Brown, RHP 
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF 
Brennen Davis, OF 
Porter Hodge, RHP 
* Matt Mervis, 1B 
Keegan Thompson, P 
Luis Vazquez, INF 

 



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Soriano by the Pitches

Hoping to understand Alfonso Soriano's hot and cold streaks this year, I turned to the incomparable Fan Graphs to break down his present and historical success against different pitches.  The results suggest that Soriano is losing the skill that made him one of the more feared hitters in the game, but that he might have found a method to compensate for this loss.  Below is a chart showing the percentage of fastballs Soriano has seen each year since 2005, with 2009 broken down per month. It also shows his ranking among hitters seeing the fewest fastballs, his "runs above average"  number on fastballs, (wFastball) and how high he ranks among all hitters, and his overall OPS. (As in, not specific to fastballs)  The most important thing to notice here is his wFB rank.

 

Date  Fastball%  FB% Rank  wFastball wFB Rank
 OPS
2005  47.9  147/147  27.6  15/147  .821

2006

 54.1  150/159  23.7  25/159  .911
2007  54  150/161  23.3  27/161  .897
2008  53.2  134/145  17.9  38/145  .876
April 2009
 45.9  196/197  3.3  55/197
 .965

May 2009

 43  185/185  3.6  60/185  .657
June 2009
 49.1  180/184  2.4  72/184  .585
July 2009
 44.8  190/190  .7  112/190  .992
August 2009
 36.7
 179/190
 -.6  156/190  .220

 

You probably have noticed a couple of striking trends going on here.  First, Soriano has progressively moved from being one of the most effective hitters in baseball against the fastball to being quite pedestrian. Second, pitchers have not noticed and adapted to this change:  They contiue to avoid throwing fastballs to Soriano as if he were the same hitter he was in 2005.  He's not.

So how do we explain Soriano's April and July, when he hit like the hitter for whom the Cubs offered that premium contract?

Finding  that answer requres looking at Soriano's results swinging at sliders.

 Date Slider %
SL % Rank
wSlider
 wSL Rank
 OPS

2005

 26.6  1/147
 -6.9  140/147  .821
 2006  21.3
 9/158  -2.9  119/159  .911
 2007  20.2  12/161  -7.9  154/161  .897
 2008  22.9  5/145  -2.1  92/145  .876
 April 2009
 22.7  13/197  2.5
 15/197  .965
 May 2009
 26.4  5/185
 -2.4  167/185  .657
 June 2009
 24.3  11/184  -5.4  183/184  .585
 July 2009
 25.6  6/190
 3.9
 4/190  .992
 August 2009
 43.4  5/190  -.8  166/175

.220

 

It makes sense that if pitchers fear Soriano's ability to hit the fastball, they would throw him an inordinate number of sliders, and indeed the table indicates Soriano consistently sees among the most sliders in the game.  Throughout his career Soriano has proven to be one of the weaker hitters against sliders.

This potentially could be a toxic combination: A fastball hitter who no longer can hit fastballs, and still doesn't see any fastballs to boot.  But then look at the two months this year that Soriano has hit: April and July.  The numbers indicate that Soriano's output isn't due to hitting fastballs with the authority to which he is accustomed; instead he's hitting sliders in a way that he previously did not.  Well.

Of course, other factors might be at work as well, but if so I have yet to find an obvious candidate.  Such marked changes do not appear when looking at Soriano's results against other pitch types.  Neither does plate discipline seem to be the issue. Soriano is both swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strikezone this year, and making more contact when he does swing - both at pitches inside and out of the zone, and it shows no meaningful fluctuation from month to month in 2009.  His BABIP shows severe fluctuations from month to month, but that appears to be driven by corresponding changes in his line-drive percentage, so there's nothing unusual there.  

Assuming that these stats do reveal a truth about the real world (I know, I know), there are several questions to consider going forward.  Most obvious, what is the cause behind Soriano's diminish returns against fastballs?  Is it that he now has a "slider speed bat"?  Is it a matter of approach at the plate, where he has stopped guessing fastball in order to better hit the breaking stuff?  The latter can be fixed, the former, not so much.  Looking at how consistent the downward trend is, my hunch is that it's the former, a slow erosion in the speed of his bat.  If it's the former, and Soriano is losing some quickness in the swing, will we see him move away from his preference for heavy bats?  And will he be able to compensate by consistently hitting sliders with the results found in April and July?  Then, there are questions concerning how pitchers resond.  At what point will pitchers adjust to the fact that Soriano does not hit fastballs with the authority he once did, and adjust their pitch selection? There may be a lot riding on these questions.

 

Update: I was unaware of it as I wrote, but less than a month ago R.J. Anderson at Fan Graphs wrote about how few fastballs Soriano sees.  He doesn't mention either Soriano's historical trend of diminishing results on the fastball, or the weird fluctuations this year on the sliders; instead he reaffirms the notion that Soriano is a good fastball hitter and the problem is in the dearth of fastballs he sees. I think he may be wrong there, but I should at least try to be a good scholar and cite the work.

 

Comments

imo... soriano has always played at the plate (and still does) standing at the very front of the box. this lets him takes hacks at offspeed stuff before/early in the break. he swings a bat damn hard/fast for a guy with this frame. this has allowed him to stand in the front of the box and still catch up with those fastballs rather than so many blowing by him. as far as if his bat speed really is diminishing or it's some kinda hand/eye contact issue...i dunno. a guy that Ks as much as he does is expected to take some ugly swings, but in some of these foul-off-fests he's making contact with stuff he'd drive in years past only to find himself poking it foul being late. i blame larry rothschild and the assistant groundskeeper.

Excellent piece, Trans. I'd think the declining bat speed hypothesis is correct. Soriano's almost a pure reaction hitter, placing a heavy burden on his athleticism. Now that he's on the wrong side of 30, his reliance on see ball-hit ball becomes a liability.

Decision on BJ coming soon too? from sun-times notes: Lefty B.J. Ryan, the former All-Star closer the Cubs signed when Toronto released him last month, pitched another scoreless inning for Class AAA Iowa, striking out one and walking one. He hasn't allowed a run in five appearances, including three of the last four days.

Wow. Really interesting post, Trans, and written at 1am, it ascends to the rank of superb. (Like a well executed dive with a high degree of difficulty.)

I wonder to what degree moving to a lighter bat allows an older player to compensate for loss of bat speed. If I had to guess, it would be some, but less than one might imagine (or, in Soriano's case, less than Cub fans would hope). And he has all of those years still left on that contract.

Additionally, I have this suspicion that Soriano would no more readily move to a lighter bat--and thus concede his aging--than Lou was willing to move him out of the leadoff spot.

Thanks again for the piece.

[ ]

In reply to by Transmission

Moving back in the box might make him more vulnerable to breaking pitches, but it would also give him that extra split second to recognize a breaking pitch (something he clearly has trouble doing). I wish we lived in the future and had some kind of supercomputer to model these hypotheticals for us (like taking an ounce off his bat and moving him a foot back in the box).

When Soriano heats up, you might as well throw the numbers out. As late as this April Soriano was crunching any kind of pitch... slider, fastball, changeup, it just didn't matter. When he's slumping though (and his slumps are as inevitable as his hot streaks) he'll wave at a slider no matter how far off the plate it is. I think he'll put to rest this talk of declining bat speed very soon.

[ ]

In reply to by Ryno

I'd wager ye be a bit overly-optimistic. Clearly Soriano, has a history of streakiness, but Trans is looking at long term trends. He's been streaky over the course of individual seasons. But the trend over the last several seasons is that he does less and less with the fastball.

Isn't this all just Billy Beane-speak for saying the dude got a lot bigger contract than he should have gotten? Seriously, nice analysis. If he can't hit sliders as he gets older he is totally fucked cuz most hitters past a certain age (they all have different peaks) can't turn on good fastballs at some point. He's got such good wrist movement though I'm a bit surprised by this. Hmmm, now that I think about it maybe his wrists are a little less Ernie Bankish this year.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob Richardson

I'm not a big stats guy (in fact, I barely understand them), but that article had some pretty cool stuff in it, like this: "19) Hitting a fastball is not imperative. Just ask the Pittsburgh Pirates. You figure that during the Pirates’ fire sale they would manage to upgrade offensively from their former shortstop, Jack Wilson(notes), whose anemic 11.2 runs below average on fastballs personified the franchise quite well. But no. They replaced him with Ronny Cedeno(notes), who in just over 200 at-bats is 17.9 runs below average. His 3.46 runs below per 100 fastballs is the worst in baseball, and scouts recognize it: Cedeno sees almost 70 percent fastballs because he can’t touch them."

[ ]

In reply to by Sweet Lou

I don't even care, I'd take Jack Wilson and move the riot back to 2B in a heartbeat. Talk about a guy that gets after the ball... He's one of my favorite active SS. Sure, he'll never be on my fantasy team, but he's a human highlight reel.

http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/2009/08/fireworks-field.html Can we label Prince Fielder as crazy now? nice article Trans...I find the disconnect between April and August though to be most concerning. If he really did figure out how to hit slider betters, I find it hard to believe he figured it out, forgot for 2-3 months and then figured it out again. In the meantime, I'll enjoy him not sucking.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

Yeah, that's my main reservation with my own study here, as well.  How likely is it that he's beginning to learn to hit sliders, but isn't able to consistently replicate it?  It's possible, at least, and I find it more likely than any other alternative explanation,but I'm also not completely sold on it...

Mechanical problems can also contribute to being unable to hit fastballs. It's not necessarily a symptom of aging.

[ ]

In reply to by The Real Neal

Did you really just try to make some snarky suggestion that the analytical rigor of an article on a baseball blog that I put together in 2 hours late one night is some sort of  insight into the rigor I gave over the five years I spent on the thesis that likely would make or break my professional life?

 

I do not imagine that you would want any single contribution you've made to The Cub Reporter to stand as a proxy for the sum of your own professional life. 

[ ]

In reply to by Transmission

No, that doesn't make any sense. What I am suggesting is that if you learn something in school, you apply it to things outside of school. For instance, when you come to a sign when you're driving that says 'Stop', you don't drive through it thinking "well, I learned to read at school, they certainly can't expect me to apply those lessons to everything else in my life, reading is only for school". Your excuse here is as likely to get by me, as it is to get you out of a moving violation citation.

[ ]

In reply to by The Real Neal

Ok, I'll accept your tacit retraction of your original snark, and respond to this bit of snark.

 

Among the things I've learned along the way is that whenever I can't be 100% certain in the conclusions I'm drawing from the data, I ought to say as much. A qualified conclusion is more defensible, if less sexy, than an absolute statement of fact.

 

Now, go look at the number of qualifications and caveats I made in the original entry.

 

[ ]

In reply to by Transmission

OK Trans. I will turn on my psychic antenna so that I know which things you say you don't really mean. To recap: 1. People are assuming correlation is causation, based primarily on the data in the article. 2. I point out that correlation is not causation. 3. Trans says 'but yeah, it's really correlated' 4. I point out that it's not really that correlated, and wonder why trans thinks it is, when he should know better. 5. Trans' panties get twisted, and it changes the argument, and constructs a strawman 6. I point out the flaw in Trans's 2nd argument 7. Trans says 'I wasn't really arguing the first thing, anyway, quit picking on me', and presumably unwinds his panties.

[ ]

In reply to by The Real Neal

Here's what has my proverbial panties in a bunch:

 

You disagree with my tentative conclusions.  Great.  You've explained why, and offered your alternative assessment.  Great.  We can let TCR sort out whom they find more persuasive.

 

The problem I have is with your bringing my real-world life into your disagreement.  You want to disagree with what I write here, that's great.  But calling into question my competency in my real-world profession, something that also happens to be one of the guiding joys of my life, is entirely beyong the pale of what's acceptable around here.  If you don't like those standards, you're free to find another Cubs' blog.  It will not be tolerated here.

Ankiel is doing his best to help the Cubs today, wandering aimlessly around in CF while balls drop in.

Well, I know I judge Dr. Hecht's skills at practicing medicine by whether or not I agree with his views on Ryan Theriot. Heh, this is fun. --- ...that's not fair, it's much harder to reply in a timely manner to snarky remarks while I'm scrubbed in surgery. At any rate, my Theriot views are less important than my dislike for Heilman when it comes to evaluating my surgical skills.

Muskat sees Aaron Miles at the GABP... Seems like Stevens must be headed back to IA... Any other guesses?

Cubs just released BJ Ryan according to Gordon Wittenmyer. His Twitter says: "Ryan asked for his release and was granted it today. Felt his velocity and sharpness wouldn't get there." Now that I read it again, I assume he's talking about BJ and not Theriot or Dempster.

per the next wittenmeyer twitter: Miles gives Theriot day off. Lineup: fuky, miles, lee, rami, milt, sori, font, hill, harden

[ ]

In reply to by Cubster

Sweet mother of Allah, how can Miles be back here? I know he was being a good sport and sticking at Iowa, but he couldn't even hit down there. I had a bad feeling we would see him back ASAP once Blanco got his mystery injury. Miles hit .253/.267/.299 in 87 ab's at Iowa. That's worse than Neifi Perez' last year with the Cubs.... .254/.266/.343 against far better pitchers than Miles was facing down there.

[ ]

In reply to by Paul Noce

theriot got NAILED on the wrist early in yesterday's game...it led to later lobbing a throw without strength to 1st on a play he got an error on. no SS to be had and miles is up out of necessity. he's batting 2nd because only dusty does that and dusty is the manager of the cubs forever and ever.

The release of BJ Ryan seems weird to me. The Blue Jays originally released him because his velocity was down and he wasn't getting hitters out. He must have thought he still had something to contribute because he signed a minor league deal with the Cubs and set out to work on his mechanics. Cubs officials fell all over themselves to say that Ryan was intent on working things out "the right way." At one point, someone with the Cubs said Ryan's problems were more mental than mechanical, which made it sound like he could get things turned around pretty quickly. In short order, Ryan went from Mesa to AAA and he was apparently pitching well. Reports were that he would be joining the big team soon if he continued on the path he was on. Instead, he asks for his release. Seems weird.

Saying that not only was BJ Ryan released, but so was Jason Waddell. Also, Stevens is the one going back down to AAA. So, we're minus two lefties for the day... Seems pretty odd to me...

There are a few Cub/former Cub players that make me physically ill - warranted or not - it just is what it is: Aaron Mild Hurl-man Will Oh-Man! As far as I know, not one beat reporter has pressed Hendry on why the hell he thought Aaron Miles was a "bargain" at $2.7MM for two years - or whatever the actual amount is. This is a player that should be on the bench of the Padres in their current form, or the Nats, or even the Reds. NOT on a team like the Cubs in a pennant run. How Tony LaRussa got the numbers he did out of Miles continues to proliferate his mythic proportions in my mind. Astounding.

Lou on pregame said Lilly had an excellent bullpen session and is well ahead of schedule.

Shut out by Justin Lehr? Who? With the only extra base hit coming by Rich Harden? That's embarrassing. Ah well, on to Colorado this is a pretty big series, need at least a split to at least have a .500 road trip.

[ ]

In reply to by crunch

Lehr's a nice story, one of those prospects who never got any hype and just got promoted by simply doing his job every time out. I wonder how different things could've been for this team if they'd taken AZ Phil's advice to trade/nontender Harden and keep DeRo.

[ ]

In reply to by Cubster

Why is Aaron Miles still a big leaguer? 2009 numbers: MLB 198/235/254 AAA 253/267/299 ... it's the PCL, folks. He can't hit in the PCL league. AAA Iowa was probably glad he was called up just to get him out of the lineup. Maybe Aaron Miles contributes in other ways... Cubs record... 57-49 When Aaron Miles starts... 14-17 I hate this signing... I hate him as a player... I hate that the Cubs front office hasn't cut him yet. He is the worst player the Cubs have had since Enrique Wilson. Yes, he's even worse than Neifi!

Brad Snyder back in the lineup for Iowa tonight. His previous game was May 18. Esmailin Caridad livened up the box score tonight with 12 K's in 6 innings.

livened up the box score tonight... --- John Gaub added another scoreless inning (with 2 K's) to his already miniscule ERA now below 0.66. Anyone who's seen him pitch for the I-Cubs care to assess how close he is to being the extra lefty out of the pen now that BJ Ryan's out of the picture?

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

750K? damn. cubs now got their 1st 12 picks signed. sweet. i hope bj dail (17th round) signs. he's had a rough time the past few years, but his stock is low enough to make him a deal. he's behind his childishness (hopefully). he's made 2 seriously stupid mistakes with his life the past few years (with many more minor ones) and it seems he's got a little more respect for his own life now. -edit- nevermind...just noticed he was signed, but his contract was voided. no f'n comment...the stupid kid.

Harden not pleased with team effort yesterday, from Sun Times- ''That's the key: bring some intensity out there. That's just what we lacked today. We just didn't have it. Guys were taking a day off a little too early.'' I jumped off parachat before Sori got picked off, when it happen Bob said to Len "you know what I said about having a feel for the game?" Implying Sori doesn't. Bob is right.

Submitted by Jace on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 4:24pm.
Saying that not only was BJ Ryan released, but so was Jason Waddell. Also, Stevens is the one going back down to AAA. So, we're minus two lefties for the day... Seems pretty odd to me...

================================================

JACE: The Jason Waddell release had nothing to do with his performance on the field. Think about when he was placed on the DL for "non-baseball related issues" a couple of months ago and then it might not seem so odd that he suddenly got released for no apparent reason.

[ ]

In reply to by Tito

He was DLed for non-baseball medical reasons and then released for violating team policy. So we still have no idea what the DL stint was for, but he recovered and was optioned to Iowa, and then didn't give up a run in 11 innings and then was released for violating team policy. My guess: he's a drunk, got in a bar fight the first time and got injured, then wasn't supposed to do that shit again and was caught.

I think one thing yesterday's game proved is that Mike Fontenot does not belong in the major leagues. That he's the regular second baseman for a team that calls itself a contender is embarrassing.

In sad news: Rest in peace John Hughes. I don't know if he was a Cub fan but he certainly had the right idea in send Ferris Bueller to Wrigley Field.

Thanks to all for the Jackson update. John Hughes must have been a Cub fan. Several of his movies had Cub references, i,e, Sixteen Candles, Family Vacation, Ferris Buehler. I know he lived in Lake Forest for awhile and may still have been.

5 ip so far, 2 ER, 4 K, 0 BB versus Dbacks and Scherzer...

Fontenot isn't the only subtraction Hendry (or hopefully new ownership/management) needs to make this off-season. Here's my cheat sheet for Jimbo or the new GM: GONE -- Heilman, Harden, Gregg, Chad Fox (please, no more), Koyie Hill, Miles, Baker, Bradley, and Reed Johnson. Some are FA's, the rest trade, non-tender, waive outright..........I don't care as long as I don't have to watch them in Cubs pinstripes anymore. I would re-sign Johnson at a reasonable salary ($3-4M per year - limit 2 years), and I would keep my mind open on Grabow if he finishes the season strong. Next years roster if I was GM: P--Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells, Gorzelany, Grabow, Marshall, Marmol, Guzman, Samardzija, Stevens, and Gaub. C--Soto, Clevenger IF--Lee, Theriot (2b), Castro (ss), Ramirez, Barney, Hoffpauir OF--Soriano, Fukudome, J. Fox, Snyder, Fuld Payroll would be between $115-120M (room to add at trade deadline), yes Castro would be a gamble but read Daytona's manager's report on him, NTC contracts still make up most of the payroll hence the bench/bullpen number of rookie/non-veterans, and if they have to eat the $22.7M owed to Bradley and Mills then all the more reason to kick Hendry to the curb. For the record, I don't hate Hendry or wish him gone. However, the mistakes in his track record demonstrate he needs senior management oversight from someone who knows baseball better than Crane Kenney.

[ ]

In reply to by George Altman

I mostly agree with you on the moves but Samardzija has to go. At the very least he needs to go to Iowa and pray he finds control. He's another train wreck that doesn't belong on a major league roster. I doubt Castro will be ready to hit major league pitching that soon.

[ ]

In reply to by George Altman

it would really suck to see Rich Harden strike out 10+ guys per nine innings again for the Cubs...that would be terrible.

Pretty strong feeling that Wells won't be this good ever again and I hope you have something on Gorzelanny past one good start against a horrible offensive team.

Glowing reports in Daytona does not equal major league quality player...at least not yet. He's got 34 errors already this season at SS, let's make sure he can actually play the position before handing him the job.

And for all the hand-wringing over Milton Bradley, he's getting on-base and last I checked scoring runs  is as important as driving them in. He's having an off-year, no one is doubting that, but tossing $20M+ down the drain is borderline insane. But I assume you had Fukudome's bags packed last season as well...

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

Of course, Harden also leads the staff in HR allowed, has a 4.41 ERA, and is not real consistent.. Agreed on Bradley....so hit him 2nd instead of 5th, and let him get on base to his heart's content. If he's going to hit 5th...try driving in some runs. Castro might be a good idea...in another season or 2... Most of us would have driven Fukudome to the airport after last season..

[ ]

In reply to by Dusty Baylor

I don't think Harden should be resigned just because of the injury risk, but if he accepts arbitration. I'd be more than fine with it.

When you can strike out 10+ per 9 innings, you have something special, the HR's rate this year seems like an outlier for him. And he's been amazing in the second half.

But saying I don't ever want to see him in a Cubs uniform sounded kind of ridiculous.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

I've noticed more often than not, comments made in the heat of an argument tend to be almost invariably the person's true feelings. When Lou told Bradley, "...you're not a ballplayer, you're a piece of shit!" I believe Lou really believes that; and with Lou having over 40 years in professional baseball I'm inclined to agree with his assessment of Bradley. Lou didn't want Bradley, he wanted Ibanez and that's pretty well documented. Bradley wasn't brought here to dazzle the lineup with his OBA, he was brought here to drive in runs in the middle of the order preferably against right-handed pitching. How's that working out? He was a mistake, Rob, albeit a $30M mistake but a mistake nonetheless. So, yes, I would pull the plug and try to trade him (best case) or release him. It looks like some combination of Fox/Fuld/Snyder would produce as many runs as Bradley has or would. Fukudome -- I thought after the second half of 2008, the Cubs might have over-estimated his potential (yeah, that doesn't happen too often...does it?). Here again, Lou doesn't get the credit he deserves by (first) moving him to CF, (second) batting 2nd, then leadoff after moving Fonzie to 6th, and (third) putting him in pitching matchups where he can best succeed. Also, give Kosuke some credit for working on his game this off-season. The Cubs might have a CF who can hit .275 with a .350/.375 OBA and 15 HR/ 70 RBI who's a damn good defensive outfielder. $12M is a little high for that production but a lot of CF's with those numbers get $7-9M/year. Castro -- yes, it's a reach to move to the show next year. I'd be fine with Blanco at 2B until help is ready at AAA or AA. I can't watch people who offend my baseball sensibilities over 162 games again (i.e. Fontenot, Miles, etc.). Harden -- you can't build an effective starting rotation around a guy you know at Opening Day will only start 25-28 games a year. He has a shoulder that could blow at any point and the Cubs medical people and Hendry know this. After the playoffs, goodbye Rich......good luck. Wells/Gorzelany -- short answer: who knows? Based on contracts and performance these guys probably come back: Z, Lilly, Dempster, Wells, Marmol, Guzman, Marshall, Samardzija ($2.5M whether he plays in Chicago or Iowa). I would re-sign Grabow if he continues to perform this well and the money/length work. Stevens, Gaub, Gorzelany, Atkins probably are in the mix for the final spots.

[ ]

In reply to by George Altman

Here again, Lou doesn't get the credit he deserves by (first) moving him to CF, (second) batting 2nd, then leadoff after moving Fonzie to 6th, and (third) putting him in pitching matchups where he can best succeed.

Probably not getting credit because it's the same Lou that batted Fuku 5th for a good part last year and won't move Bradley out of the middle of the order.

So, yes, I would pull the plug and try to trade him (best case) or release him. It looks like some combination of Fox/Fuld/Snyder would produce as many runs as Bradley has or would.

Fox might do as well with the bat, but you have to play defense. Fuld and Snyder is quite a helluva reach there...kind of an absurd reach.

Bradley's having a tough season, I'm not going to argue that, Alou had a tough season his first year with the Cubs (as did some other FA signings with the Cubs) but at least Bradley is still doing things to help the team. He's not driving the ball the way they wanted him too, but a .389 OBP is not easy to come by. Hopefully Lou realizes that batting him 2nd is the right thing until he shows some power. Trading him is fine, maybe even eat a few million, but releasing him is downright retarded.

[ ]

In reply to by George Altman

Not that there is any danger of this happening, but I don't think sending Castro to the majors in 2010 will yield good results immediately or in the future. I think about it a bit like training singers. There are some people out there with voices so beautiful you want to immediately have them singing arias. But proper training would help to prevent them from forming bad habits (harmful to the vocal chords, etc.) and, frankly, if they don't have the training in vocal control, intonation, etc., they're going to run into problems. He's already being rushed through the minors. Let's not have him skip AAA altogether. It'd be best if he spends a full year at AAA at some point, or at least a full year at AA and a partial year at AAA. It's not like he's demolishing the minors, either. We're mostly excited about him because of his potentials. He's been caught stealing a bunch and while his rate stats are good, they aren't amazing. He's still learning from his time down there, and I don't think he'd outperform either Theriot or Blanco at this point.

So he was a little like Kyle Farnsworth the only difference being Farnsworth would have hurt someone else

Recent comments

  • crunch (view)

    SF snags b.snell...2/62m

  • Cubster (view)

    AZ Phil: THAT is an awesome report worth multiple thanks. I’m sure it will be worth reposting in an “I told you so” in about 2-3 years.

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    The actual deadline to select a post-2023 Article XX-B MLB free agent signed to 2024 minor league contract (Cooper, Edwards, and Peralta) to the MLB 40-man roster is not MLB Opening Day, it is 12 PM (Eastern) this coming Sunday (3/24). 

    However, the Cubs could notify the player prior to the deadline that the player is not going to get added to the 40 on Sunday, which would allow the player to opt out early. Otherwise the player can opt out anytime after the Sunday deadline (if he was not added to the 40 by that time). 

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    Today is an off day for both the Cubs MLB players and the Cubs minor league players.  

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    For those of you keeping track, so far nine players have been called up to Mesa from the Cubs Dominican Academy for Minor League Camp and they will be playing in the ACL in 2024: 

    * bats or throws left 

    Angel Cepeda, INF 
    * Miguel Cruz, P
    Yidel Diaz, C 
    * Albert Gutierrez, 1B
    Fraiman Marte, P  
    Francis Reynoso, P (ex-1B) 
    Derniche Valdez, INF 
    Edward Vargas, OF 
    Jeral Vizcaino, P 

    And once again, despite what you might read at Baseball Reference and at milb.com, Albert Gutierrez is absolutely positively a left-handed hitter (only), NOT a right-handed hitter.

    Probably not too surprisingly, D. Valdez was the Cubs #1 prospect in the DSL last season, Cepeda was the DSL Cubs best all-around SS prospect not named Derniche Valdez, Gutierrez was the DSL Cubs top power hitting prospect not named Derniche Valdez, E. Vargas was the DSL Cubs top outfield prospect (and Cepeda and E. Vargas were also the DSL Cubs top two hitting prospects), Y. Diaz was the DSL Cubs top catching prospect, and M. Cruz was the DSL Cubs top pitching prospect. 

    F. Marte (ex-STL) and J. Vizcaino (ex-MIL) are older pitchers (both are 22) who were signed by the Cubs after being released by other organizations and then had really good years working out of the bullpen for the Cubs in the DSL last season. 

    The elephant in the room is 21-year old Francis Reynoso, a big dude (6'5) who was a position player (1B) at the Cardinals Dominican Academy for a couple of years, then was released by STL in 2022, and then signed by the Cubs and converted to a RHP at the Cubs Dominican Academy (and he projects as a high-velo "high-leverage" RP in the states). He had a monster year for the DSL Cubs last season (his first year as a pitcher). 

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    DJL: The only players who definitely have opt outs are Cooper, Edwards, and Peralta (Opening Day, 5/1, and 6/1), and that's because they are post-2023 Article XX-B MLB free agents who signed 2024 minor league contracts and (by rule) they get those opt outs automatically. 

    Otherwise, any player signed to a 2024 minor league contract - MIGHT or - MIGHT NOT - have an opt out in their contract, but it is an individual thing, and if there are contractual opt outs the opt out(s) might not necessarily be Opening Day. It could be 5/1, or 6/1, or 7/1 (TBD).

    Because of their extensive pro experience, the players who most-likely have contractual opt outs are Alfaro, Escobar, and D. Smith, but (again), not necessarily Opening Day. 

    Also, just because a player has the right to opt out doesn't mean he will. 

  • Dolorous Jon Lester (view)

    I love the idea that Madrigal heads to Iowa in case Morel can’t handle third.

    The one point that intrigues me here is Cooper over Smith. I feel like the Cubs really like Smith and don’t want to lose him. Could be wrong. He def seems like an opt out if he misses the opening day roster

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    Childersb3: Both Madrigal and Wisdom can be optioned without any restriction. Their consent is not required. 

    They both can be outrighted without restriction, too (presuming the player is not claimed off waivers), but if outrighted they can choose to elect free agency (immediately, or deferred until after the end of the MLB season).

    If the player is outrighted and elects free-agency immediately he forfeits what remains of his salary.

    If he accepts the assignment and defers free agency until after the conclusion of the season, he continues to get his salary, and he could be added back to the 40 anytime prior to becoming a free-agent (club option). 

  • Childersb3 (view)

    Phil, 
    Madrigal and Wisdom can or cannot refuse being optioned to the Minors?
    If they can refuse it, wouldn't they elect to leave the Cubs org?

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    In my opinion, the biggest "affirmative" mistake the Cubs made in the off-season (that is, doing something they should not have done), was blowing $9M in 2024 AAV on Hector Neris. What the Cubs actually need is an alternate closer to be in the pen and available to close if Alzolay pitched the day before (David Robertson would have been perfect), because with his forearm issue last September, I would be VERY wary of over-using Alzolay. I'm not even sure I would pitch him two days in a row!  

    And of course what the Cubs REALLY need is a second TOR SP to pair with Justin Steele. That's where the Cubs are going to need to be willing to package prospects (like the Padres did to acquire Dylan Cease, the Orioles did to acquire Corbin Burnes, and the Dodgers did to acquire Tyler Glasnow). Obviously those ships have sailed, but I would say right now the Cubs need to look very hard at trying to acquire LHSP Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins (and maybe LHP A. J. Puk as well).