Cocktail Napkin Trading
My how the sports writers love to speculate. They don't start a rumor mind you, they get a few out of context quotes to make it seem like it's from a real "the trade's just about ready to be completed" source. We all know Captain Wrongway Phil Rogers loves to do this stuff in his Sunday 'mlb whispers' column. The newest wanna-be GM rumor comes from Paul Sullivan, the Cubs beat specialist from the currently bankrupt (can I count the ways) Chicago Tribune.
Pseudo GM, 'Paul Sully-My-Reputation' pulls out the two martini cocktail napkin and draws up trade possibilities for Milton Bradley this offseason. On a bigger picture level he categorizes two "how to unload Bradley scenerios". Then he paints a classic bad contract for bad contract, real dollar salary swap with the Giants that oddly makes some sense (accent on odd).
Sully Scenerio #1:
A reverse salary dump or more accurately a salary eat and swallow (definitely not tasty). The team that will take on Bradley and the $20+ million remaining on his deal has no "bad" contracts of near equal value (because their inherently low payroll doesn't have any big contracts of similar value). Kansas City and San Diego get mentions here. KC will have 2 years remaining on Gil Meche's 5/55 deal but Meche has let everyone know he doesn't like the big market spotlight. He was a passing consideration during the 2006 off-season where the Cubs rightly preferred to sign Bulldog Teddy Roosevelt Lilly. A deal with these teams would essentially be the Cubs unloading Bradley but still paying the rest of his contract for minimal minor league talent in exchange. I'm not sure if it's worth discussing this since it's probably about the same as just releasing him and eating the collard "green"(s). The Cubs have done this before and gotten Jerry Hairston Jr., Mike Fontenot and Jose Ceda level value as players on previous trades to get bigger salary players out of town. So current GM Hendry has gotten something out of that situation before with the most value extracted from the unloading of Todd Hundley's big contract (2 years remained on a 4/24 deal) for Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek.
ESPN even got Padres GM, Kevin Towers to add this nearly tampering quote:
"I haven't had any calls from Jim about him," Towers told ESPN.com.
"But I think people kind of know what players we target. We have to take chances sometimes."
"We took a chance on Milton the first time we had him, and he actually played pretty well [before his knee injury].We could be in the market for an outfielder. I'm not saying it's necessarily Milton. But our experience with him was rather a positive one. It wasn't really a negative one."
So it looks like Towers is trying to 'target' ex-Cubs in a paint-by-numbers fashion, starting at #22. That makes Bradley his obvious next target. I'm thinking Ryne Sandberg will be the Padres next manager based on this logic.
Here's the inside poop from KC:
According to Royals insiders, upper management still considers Bradley a talented hitter who could thrive in a low-key environment such as the one in Kansas City.
Sully Scenerio #2:
Finding a trading partner with an ugly contract that makes a bigger financial committment than the current Bradley deal...and Sullivan seems to have found one!
So here's the punch line:
Aaron Rowand for Milton Bradley. Doing the math it's a 3/36 vs 2/21 swap. The Cubs would be on the hook for an albeit deferred, $15 million more. Hey, everybody likes Rowand and we all knows how laid back things are in northern California. Bradley would look a bit small (but comfy) in the Barry Bonds barkalounger. Hitting in front of happy go lucky Kung Fu Panda just might work for Milton.
If the Cubs want to swap bad contracts, as they did in the Hundley deal, the Giants may be Hendry's best option. Center fielder Aaron Rowand has not put up the kind of numbers expected in San Francisco and has three years remaining for $36 million.
Rowand is two years removed from a 27-homer, 89-RBI season for the Phillies and would be a good fit in the Cubs clubhouse.
(addition: and Bradley would be two years removed from a 22-homer, .321/.436/.663/.999 line in Texas)
I hope that Paul Sullivan uses the napkin on that blue cheese (from the olives) dribbling down his chin. A deal like this would make Hendry's biblical acquisitions: 3 Aaron's and 1 Moses...shouldn't the counter move really be a Pharoah Ramses II? That should get the Cubs a player who can really provide "protection" for the middle of the order (of course, that depends on how well the late Yul Brynner can hit).
One last thing...
As suspended Milton Bradley isn't with the team, I'm thinking I should be looking for him under the bus. Shouldn't players (in this case Reed Johnson) just keep their mouths shut rather than putting broken feet in them?
"Cubs fans would fall in love with him (Rowand), for sure," Cubs outfielder Reed
Johnson said. "He did well on the other side of town, and I know people
... appreciate the way he plays the game."
"But he (Rowand) takes responsibility for stuff," Johnson said. "If you ask him, he'll tell you he could be playing better than he is now."
**The Grand (where's) Waldo Hotel Bus**
Oddly, if they do get Rowand, it might just mean Reed Johnson might not be affordable as a 4th outfielder with Sam Fuld as a much cheaper option for that roster spot. With Fuld, the Cubs would be one player closer to a minyon, so that prayers for a World Series win could possibly get answered.
I am right there with you closing in on 60.
I don't care that much about "mortgaging" one player who is not only blocked by two guys, but is not ready to hit the majors for at least a couple years.
There is no reason why this team, this year, can't have a real shot at something NONE of us have experienced.
Further, I don't feel that even if they fall short that they have ruined their farm system.
I have made my opinion clear here, with others, Warren was shit on the Cubs save one spot start.
Trading for Warren, Warren sucking, getting Warren back for Chapman plus 3 prospects, sounds like Revenge of The Yankees on the former Boston executive. Old rivalries never die.
I pray to the heavens above Chapman doesn't suck for some reason, or he'll be booed out of town faster than a Todd Hundley revival meeting.
I'm kind of nostalgic for the Schwarber-for-Miller rumors.
This offseason, after some ridiculous playoff run and Chapman saving every game from here until the end of the postseason striking out 27/9innings, I welcome anyone to quote this thread and call me a dummy: I hate this trade, and my hate is 2 parts Chapman makes this team less likeable and 1 part that's a ridiculous overpay for 30 regular season innings and, at tops, 10 postseason innings. Already hoping they don't extend him.
btw...Thanks AZ Phil. I'm really enjoying your take on this trade.
I'm a bit disappointed on the Warren experience. Essentially they gave Castro away for crickets (OK, well they signed Zobrist with the Castro salary dump). Otherwise one might look at it as Chapman for Castro and our #1 minors prospect (Torres) + McKinney/Crawford. Seems pricey for a 2 month rental. We will see if this price tag is that steep in a relative way based on the remaining deadline deals for relievers.
Yep. One of the great things about this team (in addition to being really good at baseball) was the "likable" factor. Feels a bit different now. Who knows...maybe Chapman will be the king of the dance parties.
Here are some possible corresponding minor league moves we might see in the aftermath of the Chapman trade:
SOUTH BEND to MYRTLE BEACH: OF Donnie Dewees and INF Bryant Flete
EUGENE to SOUTH BEND: OF Robert Garcia and INF Vimael Machin
There is really no reason to replace Billy McKinney at Tennessee because both Chris Coghlan and Jorge Soler are doing their rehab at Tennessee.
And there are plenty of pitchers at Iowa. No need to replace Warren at AAA. .
I am 70 years old. The Cubs last played in the World Series in 1945. I was born in 1946. I hate to lose a prospect like Torres, but when the opportunity is there to get that World Series ring, you go for it. This was the idea in stock piling all this young talent. I would like to see Reddick added now and the Cubbies should be done.
I would expect Richard to accept an optional assignment because based on how he's played this season, there is a decent chance that he won't find work elsewhere. Rather stay and potentially get a ring. Same goes for Coghlan since he's struggled mightily this year.
Edwards should not go down. He's pitched very well and Maddon is very impressed with him. I would expect Grimm to go down for Cahill so he can get back on track (he's pitched better in July, but he's not getting enough appearances).
chitownmvp01: Indeed Clayton Richard would seem to be odd man out once Chapman reports, but Richard might accept a minor league assignment if he is promised a return to Chicago on 9/1 when MLB Active List rosters expand (Richard has minor league ioptions left).
The only player in the deal that would cause me a second thought is Gleyber Torres.
McKinney and Crawford are decent prospects but both are redundant/replaceable in the system and Warren was really only a middle-reliever or #6 starter, so to me it's really just Torres for Chapman.
There is no Comp pick for players traded mid-season. 2+ months of Chapman is it.
to get one of the best you have to give up one/some of your best...but it's a bit painful to watch the system's best prospect walk for any 2-3 month rental, especially one that's not an everyday player.
I assume Chapman will replace Richard on the roster, but who goes down when Cahill gets activated? Maybe Grimm?
And when Soler and Coghlan get healthy, how do they fit them on the roster when they're ready to be activated?
We are giving up a lot, but it's not like we're trading Addison Russell for 2+ months of Jason Hammel. When impact players become available, they are going to cost you. The other bids could also have been high.
Having Chapman as a rental is potentially less disruptive than having him come in with an extension in place.