Bill James 2010 Projections for Cubs

Fangraphs is once again going to list the projections on their player pages from a variety of sources, Bill James, CHONE, Marcel....maybe more. Bill James projections are up first and here's how the Cubs ranked by wOBA and their 2009 wOBA (explanation of wOBA here). I'll try and expand when new projections are released. Age is their 2010 playing age. You can click on their names to get their full slash line predictions and more.

2009 wOBA
Bill James 2010 wOBA Projection
Derrek Lee 34 .412 .386
Aramis Ramirez 32 .392 .375
Jake Fox 27 .332 .375
Milton Bradley 32 .345 .365
Geovany Soto 27 .310 .362
Micah Hoffpauir 30 .315 .350
Kosuke Fukudome 33 .346 .349
Jeff Baker 29 .338 346
Alfonso Soriano 34 .314 .346
Mike Fontenot 30 .296 .334
Ryan Theriot 30 .318 .319
Sam Fuld 28 .367 .317
Tyler Colvin 24 .205 .316
Reed Johnson 33 .321 .312
Aaron Miles 33 .212 .300
Koyie Hill 31 .279 .289
Andres Blanco 26 .271 .285

For the pitchers, here's their projected ERA and FIP (explanation of FIP here).

Age 2009 ERA
2009 FIP
2010 James Projected ERA
2010 James Projected FIP
Carlos Zambrano 29 3.77 3.61 3.60 3.90
Ted Lilly 34 3.10 3.65 3.76 4.30
Ryan Dempster 33 3.65 3.87 3.83 3.92
Randy Wells 27 3.05 3.88 4.16 4.10
Sean Marshall 27 4.32 4.19 4.06 4.34
Tom Gorzelanny 27 5.55 3.91 4.11 4.01
Jeff Samardzija 25 7.53 5.90 5.44 5.47
Carlos Marmol 27 3.41 4.06 3.45 4.00
John Grabow 31 3.36 4.20 4.00 4.17
Aaron Heilman 31 4.11 4.37 3.88 4.25
Angel Guzman 28 2.95 4.44 4.03 4.11

Alright, nothing too surprising in any of these numbers, although I can't tell you how much it makes my heart flutter to see the Cubs highest paid position player in the middle of the offensive pack. 

Two pitchers stood out to me...Gorzelanny and Guzman. I was a bit down on Gorzelanny but his peripherals were pretty strong last year...9 K/9 rate and a 1.15 HR/9 to go with a 3.26 BB/9 rate. Definitely a legitimate 4th/5th starter candidate with an even higher ceiling considering his age and the very nice 2007 season he had. Guzman on the other hand, had a mere 6.93 K/9 rate last year with a 3.39 BB/9 rate with a miniscule .209 BABIP. A little luckier than I had previously thought, but he does keep the ball in the park and the James projections do expect an increase in his K/9 rate...although no guess on when he'll hit the disabled list.

Anyway, they're merely projections, nothing to take too seriously. They sure didn't nail Soto, Soriano or Fontenot's demise last year, so just consider it some fun off-season fodder.

Be sure you don't miss Arizona Phil's Top 15 prospect list...


I'm heartened by the predicted bounce back from Soto. Here's hoping it comes to pass.

Not to start the whole sabermetrics argument here again, but do we really need more stats? How many ways to do we to show that Soto had a bad year, or that Sori struggled most of the year?

there's always room for well-calculated and reasoned stats....

nonetheless, wOBA is basically OPS but with the proper weight between OBP and SLG and boiled down into one easy to understand number. All the cool kids are using it today...

-edit- and of course it was listed on the Fangraphs pages with the James predictions, making it easier to type that one number then the entire slash line or trying to figure out the eqA or whatever..

for the newbies, .330 is considered league average wOBA.

"wOBA gives proper weight to all the things a hitter can do to produce value, and is a more accurate reflection of a hitter’s value"

Not really.

But it does explain why Soriano's numbers don't look as good.


Schuster said the same thing on XM radio this morning, think Sullivan put it in a column as well.

Try this..

yeah, I saw that after I published.

Mauer, Teix, Polanco, Jeter, Longoria, Hunter, Suzuki, A.Jones, Buehrle

and subsequent thrashing by Neyer

The problem I see with wOBA is when you look at the Cubs 2009 and Bill James 2010 projections you're led to the conclusion, Woah! If we can get rid of one guy it needs to be Theriot.

I fail to see the problem.

I have no problem getting rid of Riot. I'd like to see 99.9% of the other guys leave, too. Including the entire front office. :)

Do Bill James or any of these other wizards who project next year's performances ever go back and post how they did over the previous year so we have some idea if any of these projections are ever close to accurate?

For a couple of years BP compared themselves (Pecota) to other systems. I'm sure you can google it.

It's nice to see Bill James thinks Shark Boy will suck slightly less next season.

they're just projections, take some numbers, run a formula on them weighing whatever the individual system believes deserves to be weighed (K rates, BB rates, BABIP, whatever, last 3 years, last 5 years, etc.) and spit out something...

Bill James gotta be wrong...he's showing Heilman gets better in 2010.

Re: Andres Blanco...

That's bullshit.

it's just offense dude...

interest in 32 year old Marlon Byrd...

he has some rather pronounced home/road splits...

Rosenthal said the same thing in his live update blog thing -

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers get in on Harden. Especially if Washburn goes to Minnesota or Seattle.

Sullivan actually says, they'll "target" marlon byrd as if he's their #1 choice...dear god.

more Rangers to Bradley talk, Giants are out of the running, Rays and Mets are the back-up plan, Mets don't want Bradley though, but they'd like to move Castillo.

Hendry knows what a "career year" is, right? How 'bout "fluke"? How 'bout "too heavy for center field these days"?

Cubs were interested in Byrd prior to picking up Reed Johnson in 2007, weren't they? But he's only valuable as a 4th outfielder if he can play decent defense in CF, right? Can he still do that?

Byrd is a slightly more useful Jose Macias/Lenny Harris.

Btw, I always though Macias was a clone of Zakes Mokae, the awesome villain in Serpent and the Rainbow...

Uh..please list any season, road splits or no, that Macias or Lenny Harris put up .285/.329/.479 with 20HR and 89 RBI, and played mostly CF?

That being said....really, Marlon Byrd?

How do you not understand that comparison? They're fat players of questionable talent who played like crap as a Cub.

Well...Lenny Harris and Jose Macias were never anywhere near as useful as Marlon Byrd.

So...I guess you told me?

I'll gladly take Phillips off their hands. Dealing Votto sounds like something Phil Rogers would make up.

Random question. Isn't Mike Cameron still pretty badass in CF defensively? And recently out of a job? I know he suffers from 37-year-old-itis and a terrible case of right-handed-ness, but just throwing out options....

Cameron would be OK with me if they can't find a lefty CF or RF. His K's aren't that appealing, but that's the kind of guy Hendry loves.

Byrd's career splits are surprising, he has better numbers vs. rhp's.

all your Mike Cameron questions answered...

Aww, and I didn't get you anything....

Rosenthal says the Cubs are about ready to lockup Grabow for two years. Our bullpen was so bad last year that it's hard to complain, but I sure hope Hendry has some plan for CF and leadoff.

more of the same...

Texas, Rays best options for Bradley, but Cubs will have to pay quite a bit of the contract...

Cubs seem to like Castillo and Mets want to move him but not for Bradley...

Cameron and Byrd mentioned as well...

Submitted by Rob G. on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 1:28am.
Rays best options for Bradley, but Cubs will have to pay quite a bit of the contract...

Cubs seem to like Castillo and Mets want to move him but not for Bradley...


ROB G: Then Milton Bradley to Rays (Bradley gets $9M in 2010 and $12M in 2011), Pat Burrell to Mets (Burrell gets $9M in 2010), and Luis Castillo to Cubs (Castillo gets $6M in 2010 and $6M in 2011), with Cubs paying $3M of Bradley's 2010 salary ($9M) and $6M of Bradley's 2011 salary ($12M) + Bradley's remaining $2M bonus payment?

That's $23 million for two years of Luis Castillo? Based on what was said during the Ricketts' press conference, that seems unlikely.

More of the same about Bradley from Sullivan:

One good to hear thing in the article is: "The Cubs are in no hurry to open up talks with Derrek Lee on a contract extension."

Re: Reds cost cutting. Hendry,if you're listening, please call Walt Jocketty about Brandon Phillips. Oh...wait... I forgot that you think Luis Castillo is better.

No, he thinks Castillo is a better fit for a Milton Bradley trade. I don't think the Reds are going to want to shed payroll by taking on a corner outfielder who is getting paid $10.5 million over the next two seasons.

Didn't Dusty once recommend us going after Bradley, though?

Recent comments

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  • Two 97+ win teams in a do-or-die, great bullpens, overpowering starters, plenty of pop--hard to believe that game wouldn't be tense. A 4-0 lead is not a blowout, especially in that situation and with the Cubs' young bullpen. Not only would a defensive play here or there make a difference, but you get the win there also on the home plate umps strike zone (generous strike calls for Arrieta, including a couple Ks), and on Schwarber sitting on the right pitch at the right time.

  • Unbeleivable Dodgers:
    I just noticed the Dodger's payroll today. It is just absurd. $300,000,000+!!
    Here is where just some of their money is for 2015:

    Some "Highlights"
    Carl Crawford $20MM
    Brandon McCarthy $17MM
    Bronson Arroyo $3.5MM
    Darwin B $2.2MM
    Dan Haren $10MM
    Matt Kemp $18MM
    Brian Wilson $10MM
    Ryan Webb $2.2MM
    Dee Gordon $2.5MM

  • So I think tomorrow will be the most important test of how far we can go. We can win it all with two pitchers since Arietta has shown he can carry over his success to the post season. If Lester can be dominant also then I think we can go far no matter how Hendricks or Hammel do.


    And in terms of pitching just went through to see how we could maximize Lester and Arietta and came up with this (Lester would be going on 4 days rest three times and Arietta twice):

  • i still can't believe that crawford contract (7/142). all that loot and years for a LF'r who's entire hitting game revolves around his legs and line-drive power. those triples that raised his value are deceptive as hell to his true power, but it helped him get paid.

    there's also pause about a guy who's ob% is almost totally driven by hits rather than walks. BOS got lucky unloading that crap deal.

  • I think the Cubs take Berry and Soler off playoff roster and add Hammel & Ramirez. Believe Maddon will find Denorfia & Jackson defense too hard to lose.

  • O & B: I like the one-game Wild Card heart attack game, but I'd actually like to see a best two-out-of-three LDS played in the home parks of the two division winners with the best records, and then the LCS as a best two-out-of-three in the home park of the division winner left standing with the best record, and then let's get to the World Series already. 

  • I...don't know. If chanting would help the Cubs beat the Cardinals in the next series or ultimately the World Series I think I'd be ok with it lol. I'm not supportive of saying insulting things to opposing fans or throwing things but loud noise and chanting seems appropriate to me.

    I also grew up in France though and that kind of thing is par for the course at soccer and rugby matches and I love it. I find crowds too passive here.

  • Er, they won the first one. My bad. Carry on.

  • With last night's win in Pittsburgh, the Cubs have tied the Pirates with 98 wins, and are only 2-1/2 games behind the Cardinals. No reason why the Cubs can't finish the post-season with the best winning percentage in baseball (regular season & post-season combined). 

  • BOB: I doubt very much that Matt Szczur will be on the Cubs LDS roster.

    If he wasn't on the Wild Card roster (when the Cubs went with 15 position players), he won't be on the LDS roster (when the Cubs will go with 13 or 14 position players).

    As it is, at least one of the three RH hitting outfielders who were on the Cubs WC roster (Denorfia, Jackson, and Soler) could get bumped off the LDS roster (probably Soler).

  • I want my baseball team to win by playing better baseball. I don't want umps, fields, or fans to have anything to do with it.

  • Just with the chanting thing it worked to rattle Cueto last year where he dropped a ball and gave up a HR next pitch so you can't really hate on the fans for trying it again in this important of a game.

    Arietta though.

  • I felt the same way, too, but...

    I was very disappointed with Pittsburgh fans. At Wrigley a few weeks ago, they were very obnoxious guests, the cockiness on Twitter, and what's the deal with chanting Arrieta's name during the game? Very bush league. Add that up with Rodriguez's poor sportsmanship and you quickly have a team that you don't mind beating 4-0 in a do or die game.

  • Absolutely-It was tense. And when the Pirates couldn't push any runs across, you could see the frustration boil over.