Bill James 2010 Projections for Cubs

Fangraphs is once again going to list the projections on their player pages from a variety of sources, Bill James, CHONE, Marcel....maybe more. Bill James projections are up first and here's how the Cubs ranked by wOBA and their 2009 wOBA (explanation of wOBA here). I'll try and expand when new projections are released. Age is their 2010 playing age. You can click on their names to get their full slash line predictions and more.

2009 wOBA
Bill James 2010 wOBA Projection
Derrek Lee 34 .412 .386
Aramis Ramirez 32 .392 .375
Jake Fox 27 .332 .375
Milton Bradley 32 .345 .365
Geovany Soto 27 .310 .362
Micah Hoffpauir 30 .315 .350
Kosuke Fukudome 33 .346 .349
Jeff Baker 29 .338 346
Alfonso Soriano 34 .314 .346
Mike Fontenot 30 .296 .334
Ryan Theriot 30 .318 .319
Sam Fuld 28 .367 .317
Tyler Colvin 24 .205 .316
Reed Johnson 33 .321 .312
Aaron Miles 33 .212 .300
Koyie Hill 31 .279 .289
Andres Blanco 26 .271 .285

For the pitchers, here's their projected ERA and FIP (explanation of FIP here).

Age 2009 ERA
2009 FIP
2010 James Projected ERA
2010 James Projected FIP
Carlos Zambrano 29 3.77 3.61 3.60 3.90
Ted Lilly 34 3.10 3.65 3.76 4.30
Ryan Dempster 33 3.65 3.87 3.83 3.92
Randy Wells 27 3.05 3.88 4.16 4.10
Sean Marshall 27 4.32 4.19 4.06 4.34
Tom Gorzelanny 27 5.55 3.91 4.11 4.01
Jeff Samardzija 25 7.53 5.90 5.44 5.47
Carlos Marmol 27 3.41 4.06 3.45 4.00
John Grabow 31 3.36 4.20 4.00 4.17
Aaron Heilman 31 4.11 4.37 3.88 4.25
Angel Guzman 28 2.95 4.44 4.03 4.11

Alright, nothing too surprising in any of these numbers, although I can't tell you how much it makes my heart flutter to see the Cubs highest paid position player in the middle of the offensive pack. 

Two pitchers stood out to me...Gorzelanny and Guzman. I was a bit down on Gorzelanny but his peripherals were pretty strong last year...9 K/9 rate and a 1.15 HR/9 to go with a 3.26 BB/9 rate. Definitely a legitimate 4th/5th starter candidate with an even higher ceiling considering his age and the very nice 2007 season he had. Guzman on the other hand, had a mere 6.93 K/9 rate last year with a 3.39 BB/9 rate with a miniscule .209 BABIP. A little luckier than I had previously thought, but he does keep the ball in the park and the James projections do expect an increase in his K/9 rate...although no guess on when he'll hit the disabled list.

Anyway, they're merely projections, nothing to take too seriously. They sure didn't nail Soto, Soriano or Fontenot's demise last year, so just consider it some fun off-season fodder.

Be sure you don't miss Arizona Phil's Top 15 prospect list...


I'm heartened by the predicted bounce back from Soto. Here's hoping it comes to pass.

Not to start the whole sabermetrics argument here again, but do we really need more stats? How many ways to do we to show that Soto had a bad year, or that Sori struggled most of the year?

there's always room for well-calculated and reasoned stats....

nonetheless, wOBA is basically OPS but with the proper weight between OBP and SLG and boiled down into one easy to understand number. All the cool kids are using it today...

-edit- and of course it was listed on the Fangraphs pages with the James predictions, making it easier to type that one number then the entire slash line or trying to figure out the eqA or whatever..

for the newbies, .330 is considered league average wOBA.

"wOBA gives proper weight to all the things a hitter can do to produce value, and is a more accurate reflection of a hitter’s value"

Not really.

But it does explain why Soriano's numbers don't look as good.


Schuster said the same thing on XM radio this morning, think Sullivan put it in a column as well.

Try this..

yeah, I saw that after I published.

Mauer, Teix, Polanco, Jeter, Longoria, Hunter, Suzuki, A.Jones, Buehrle

and subsequent thrashing by Neyer

The problem I see with wOBA is when you look at the Cubs 2009 and Bill James 2010 projections you're led to the conclusion, Woah! If we can get rid of one guy it needs to be Theriot.

I fail to see the problem.

I have no problem getting rid of Riot. I'd like to see 99.9% of the other guys leave, too. Including the entire front office. :)

Do Bill James or any of these other wizards who project next year's performances ever go back and post how they did over the previous year so we have some idea if any of these projections are ever close to accurate?

For a couple of years BP compared themselves (Pecota) to other systems. I'm sure you can google it.

It's nice to see Bill James thinks Shark Boy will suck slightly less next season.

they're just projections, take some numbers, run a formula on them weighing whatever the individual system believes deserves to be weighed (K rates, BB rates, BABIP, whatever, last 3 years, last 5 years, etc.) and spit out something...

Bill James gotta be wrong...he's showing Heilman gets better in 2010.

Re: Andres Blanco...

That's bullshit.

it's just offense dude...

interest in 32 year old Marlon Byrd...

he has some rather pronounced home/road splits...

Rosenthal said the same thing in his live update blog thing -

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers get in on Harden. Especially if Washburn goes to Minnesota or Seattle.

Sullivan actually says, they'll "target" marlon byrd as if he's their #1 choice...dear god.

more Rangers to Bradley talk, Giants are out of the running, Rays and Mets are the back-up plan, Mets don't want Bradley though, but they'd like to move Castillo.

Hendry knows what a "career year" is, right? How 'bout "fluke"? How 'bout "too heavy for center field these days"?

Cubs were interested in Byrd prior to picking up Reed Johnson in 2007, weren't they? But he's only valuable as a 4th outfielder if he can play decent defense in CF, right? Can he still do that?

Byrd is a slightly more useful Jose Macias/Lenny Harris.

Btw, I always though Macias was a clone of Zakes Mokae, the awesome villain in Serpent and the Rainbow...

Uh..please list any season, road splits or no, that Macias or Lenny Harris put up .285/.329/.479 with 20HR and 89 RBI, and played mostly CF?

That being said....really, Marlon Byrd?

How do you not understand that comparison? They're fat players of questionable talent who played like crap as a Cub.

Well...Lenny Harris and Jose Macias were never anywhere near as useful as Marlon Byrd.

So...I guess you told me?

I'll gladly take Phillips off their hands. Dealing Votto sounds like something Phil Rogers would make up.

Random question. Isn't Mike Cameron still pretty badass in CF defensively? And recently out of a job? I know he suffers from 37-year-old-itis and a terrible case of right-handed-ness, but just throwing out options....

Cameron would be OK with me if they can't find a lefty CF or RF. His K's aren't that appealing, but that's the kind of guy Hendry loves.

Byrd's career splits are surprising, he has better numbers vs. rhp's.

all your Mike Cameron questions answered...

Aww, and I didn't get you anything....

Rosenthal says the Cubs are about ready to lockup Grabow for two years. Our bullpen was so bad last year that it's hard to complain, but I sure hope Hendry has some plan for CF and leadoff.

more of the same...

Texas, Rays best options for Bradley, but Cubs will have to pay quite a bit of the contract...

Cubs seem to like Castillo and Mets want to move him but not for Bradley...

Cameron and Byrd mentioned as well...

Submitted by Rob G. on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 1:28am.
Rays best options for Bradley, but Cubs will have to pay quite a bit of the contract...

Cubs seem to like Castillo and Mets want to move him but not for Bradley...


ROB G: Then Milton Bradley to Rays (Bradley gets $9M in 2010 and $12M in 2011), Pat Burrell to Mets (Burrell gets $9M in 2010), and Luis Castillo to Cubs (Castillo gets $6M in 2010 and $6M in 2011), with Cubs paying $3M of Bradley's 2010 salary ($9M) and $6M of Bradley's 2011 salary ($12M) + Bradley's remaining $2M bonus payment?

That's $23 million for two years of Luis Castillo? Based on what was said during the Ricketts' press conference, that seems unlikely.

More of the same about Bradley from Sullivan:

One good to hear thing in the article is: "The Cubs are in no hurry to open up talks with Derrek Lee on a contract extension."

Re: Reds cost cutting. Hendry,if you're listening, please call Walt Jocketty about Brandon Phillips. Oh...wait... I forgot that you think Luis Castillo is better.

No, he thinks Castillo is a better fit for a Milton Bradley trade. I don't think the Reds are going to want to shed payroll by taking on a corner outfielder who is getting paid $10.5 million over the next two seasons.

Didn't Dusty once recommend us going after Bradley, though?

Recent comments

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  • based on what SF has been doing every other year lately, getting access to the postseason playoffs seems to be what's important. bring on dat short series!

    that said, skipping the sudden death 1-game WC would be nice from here on out.

  • I know what you are saying, but I feel compelled to point out that there's no such thing as luck, curses, etc. The Cubs this year have as good as a chance as the Pirates to move on to the next round. If the Cubs proceed to the next round or not tomorrow, it will not be because of luck, but because one team outlasted the other. When/if the Cubs are lucky enough to make it to the league series, that's where they may find their biggest challenge. The Dodgers have a good, deep pitching staff.

  • debuting the new format 1 game "sudden death" WC matchup at yankee stadium does a perfect job of showing the intense emotion and drama this game can be.

    that said, i'm ready to not see yankee stadium or hear fans at yankee stadium for another 5 and 1/2 months. at least i don't have to sit through the braves with their "tommy hawk chawp" this postseason.

  • i'd like to know why the internet radio feed of the game (which is always delayed by a few seconds at best) is almost a minute faster than the ESPN cable TV coverage. wtf?

  • i dont know what order they'll be in, but i pretty much expect fowler/schwarb/rizzo/bryant/montero/castro/lastella/arrieta. any change at all (aside from the first 4 guys) wouldn't shock me, though. coghlan is still a wildcard in the lineup joe could always march d.ross out there with very slow arrieta pitching.

  • Yup. Have to agree. Baseball, like golf, certainly has that psych component for the player. There is no real reason why a fielding position should affect a batting average. The Cubs are 106 years over due for a little luck. Don't you guys think so? Maybe the rookies can bring some dumb luck on.

  • probably stacking capable lefties vs cole while keeping the "hot" castro in the game. fwiw, he's 1-6 lifetime with 0 bb/k vs cole (double).

    i chalk bryant's issues at the plate while playing OF up to coincidence so far.

  • I will call your dead horse, "Trigger".

    In one game, when anything is possble, I am glad that Joe Maddon is our Manager.

    He knows the stats better than all of us. It would seem, IF La Stella gets the start at 3B, it will be only up to the point that they were to get the lead (crosses fingers). From everything I have read, the game will be managed like a hoops game: offense/defense. So expect La Stella to be out of the game by the 5th. This team is incredibly deep which is so surprising. We never woulda thunk it.

  • i don't know what their roster plans are, but j.herrera is out there practicing with the team.

    i can't imagine him making any roster, though. dude had 4 PA the entire month of sept. him being a good dude to be around while keeping the clubhouse loose seems to be his main role at this point.

  • I know it's my own personal dead horse to beat --but Bryant has been a lousy hitter when playing the OF this year. Given that it's his first playoff game, I really hope they keep him in his natural position and don't mess with his routine.

    Lousy as in 8-for-45 with one XBH and no HR. Small sample and all that -- but why take the chance?

  • hard to tell what's up given they'll probably want to stack as many good lefties into the lineup as possible.

    castro being a bit hot doesn't help things. if he was still cool they'd probably stick la stella at 2nd and call it a day.

  • Madden won't announce lineups but Stella is practicing at 3rd and Bryant in LF today. I'd rather see Bryant at 3rd but I guess Stella has been hotter than Coghlan.

    /edit. Though I guess they could be practicing this with the idea Stella would come in as a PH then double switch him to 3rd base and Bryant to LF. Hope that's the plan instead

  • I really like the sound of that idea about expanding the AFL to ten teams. Each org. gets to field more players.
    They should do that anyway, regardless of Adv. Instructs.

  • Dallas Beeler, Corey Black, David Garner, Pierce Johnson, Steve Perakslis, James Pugliese, Duane Underwood Jr, and Rob Zastryzny threw early-morning bullpen side-sessions at Riverview yesterday.  

    Underwood threw last, and received specific one-on-one instruction from pitching coach Mike Mason. 

  • HAGSAG: There are only five advanced instructs squads left, and presently the only "co-op" team operating is the Angels/Cubs.

    The league was originally established as a "parallel" league to the AFL (a sort of "junior AFL"), for players too advanced for traditional ("basic") instructs but who were unable to get placed on AFL rosters due to AFL player-limits.

  • He is but I would think it'd be better to start out with offense and then bring in Jackson and LaStella once they have a lead. Stella has very good PH #s too.