Grabow Deal Near Completion
Bruce Levine is reporting that a deal with John Grabow should be completed today for two years and nearly 7.5 million. I had expressed my indifference in the past over resigning Grabow. Oh sure, his ERA has been pretty good the last two years, but with a BB/9 rate near 5 last year and 4.15 for his career, I don't think anyone would really miss him if he got away. I was asked in the comments yesterday how I'd handle this situation and here was my response.
I offer Grabow arbitration and wait to see if he takes it...chances are
he will because a team doesn't want to give up a draft pick for a
set-up man(ed. note - Grabow is classified as a Type A free agent). That'll cost the Cubs probably an extra $1M this year, but
if Ricketts is serious about propping the farm system, he'll roll the
dice(ed. note - when I say Ricketts, I mean they'll offer to cover Hendry's budget if Grabow wins a big arbitration case). Maybe the Cubs get lucky and a team with a protected pick signs
him or one that signed a few other FA's and the Cubs score some extra
draft picks. If he does sign with another team, I wait until February
when inevitably some lefties will still be around and sign one or two
on the cheap. I imagine you can find a few on the trade market for Jake
Fox who will likely be traded, since he's out of options and in Lou's
In general, I could care less if the Cubs have even one lefty in
their pen. It's a stupid unnecessary crutch for a manager so he can
make safe moves that the media won't blast him on. The Angels did
plenty good for awhile with their pen with no lefties (before Oliver
and Fuentes). Better off finding good relievers that can get guys from
both sides of the plate and you'll trust for an inning or longer. Cubs
had a great LOOGY in Ohman and couldn't figure out to use him.1
And I don't mind Grabow, he can get guys from both sides of the
plate, I just think's just slightly above average and I'm also not sure
Lou will use him properly, which is a full inning at a time, rather
than a match-up lefty.
Now when I wrote that, I figured Grabow could get anywhere from $4-$5M in arbitration case due to the 2.84 and 3.36 ERA's the last two years, near the top in holds, a handful of saves and Type A free agent classification. That would be a hefty raise from the $2.3M he made in 2008.
But I looked a little further at contracts signed by set-up men and relievers last year and I probably guessed a little high.
Jeremy Affeldt - 2 years/$8M total
Juan Cruz - 2 years/$6M total (there's a $4M 2011 option or $500K buyout, so $6.5M guaranteed)
Kyle Farnsworth - 2 years/$8.75M (there's a $5.25M 2011 option or $500K buyout, so $9.25M guaranteed plus incentives that could earn him more)2
Joe Beimel - 1 year/$2M
Will Ohman - 1 year/$1.35M
Latroy Hawkins - 1 year/$3.5M
I think Affeldt might be the best comp for Grabow, coming off two good seasons before 2009 and in his first year of free agency and both pitchers don't show much of a disparity between getting righties or lefties out. So at the high end, we could expect Grabow to maybe get $4M in arbitration.
Considering that assumption and considering that relievers tend to be rather volatile from year-to-year, it would seem like a good idea to not tie yourself up to a multi-year offer if you don't have to unless you feel you're getting a pretty good discount or certain that Grabow could deliver two good seasons in a row. Now we don't know the contract specifics quite yet, but at an average of $3.75M per year, Hendry looks to be paying the top of the scale and doing it for two years now, when he probably could have gotten away with just one by offering arbitration. Now maybe the deal will be one of Hendry's famous back-loaded deals as the Cubs have money coming off the books next year, but I fail to see how the Cubs aren't doing anything but paying at the top of payscale range here for Grabow's services.
So then can the Cubs safely assume that he'll continue to pitch well the next two years? Well I certainly don't think you can assume that at all. His career ERA is 4.05 and his career FIP is 4.18 including 4.54 in 2008 and 4.20 in 2009 amidst the two seasons that will have earned him this new deal. That doesn't instill a lot of confidence in me that he can repeat what he's been doing, although that's not to say that he won't. It just indicates to me that Grabow is probably nothing special amongst his fraternity of relievers and not someone that warranted a multi-year deal. And when you have a player that isn't particularly special and have the opportunity to sign him to a one-year deal instead of two, I think you take that opportunity. Of course, the Cubs could have lost Grabow to free agency, but the potential of getting two extra draft picks is worth that risk.
1 - speaking of my left-handed bullpen crutch rant, this was Grabow's 2007 entry in Baseball Prospectus which I found on his PECOTA page. Now Grabow isn't what many would consider a LOOGY, but getting lefties out will be very much one of his primary roles on the team.
You can make a strong argument that no team needs a LOOGY. Mike
Scioscia won 92 games and a division title in 2004 without having a
lefty reliever on his team. LOOGies do more harm than good because they
end up facing just as many righties than lefties as a result of walks
and pinch-hitters, and take up precious roster space without providing
2 - Points and laughs at Royals
Giants scare me. I think you're wrong about Bumgarner, he would pitch on short rest for Game 2 and then full rest for Game 5. Cueto would go Game 1, then short rest in game 4. Add in some really tough outs in that lineup and I want nothing to do with them. With that rotation they can easily steal a series.
Cards are a tough matchup. The rivalry evens out their comparable lack of talent. And like someone said, they love HRs, which is how to beat the Cubs. The upside is that I would feel really good about Lester twice against STL.
j.buchanan with a nice start...5ip 2h 1bb 3k, 0r/er
zobrist with 2HR and a double through 8
heyward 0-4 :(
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Soler likely to return Sunday, Maddon says
Right now, I'd like to see the Mets first, Giants 2nd.
I believe that since most of the team from last years' NLCS is on the squad this year, they will really amp their game up even more to kick their ass in payback for 2015.
The Giants just do not have the depth in years past, and I think all things equal - and at Wrigley - they could handle them.
I do not want to see the Cards, period. Or their fans, media, or Joe Buck.
I don't want to play Braves in the first round. Any friggin team in the league can win 3 of 5..I hate the first round. Furthermore, I wanted to play the Marlins in 2003 and the Mets over Dodgers last year.
With that said in reverse order:
3. Cardinals: It will be devastating to lose in the first round, but even worse to their main rival. It is increased incentive for the Cardinals, especially after last year. Cards would have nothing to lose, Cubs have everything to lose.
2. Giants: Rotation in the playoffs scare me a bit, but what a lousy team.
1. Mets--because of the losses in the rotation
2. Giants--because they're not the team they were BUT they maybe have bullshit even-year magic?
3. Cardinals--because rivalry and not making the playoffs hurts them more than losing in the NLDS plus getting eliminated by them in the playoffs would make for horrible sports commentary next throughout next season.
CLE/DET rained out last night already, possible rain-outs in New York (vs. Baltimore), Boston(vs. Toronto) and Philly(vs. Mets) this weekend too.
Not only games involving playoff spots that would need to be played, but any that involve home field advantage.
I got the first one! Second one I'm not even sure what even/odd betting is.
any opponent preference for NLDS?
Mets are down to 1 great pitcher instead of 4. Syndegaard may pitch Sunday which means if Mets win the WC game, he'd be set up for Game 1. There's a chance they clinch a spot by Sunday so he'd pitch the WC and then we'd probably get Colon for Game 1. They've certainly had the hottest bats over the last week and month out of the WC options.
A couple of Cub related puzzles.
Can't teach height and thinness
Hopefully Pirates don't call up A. Lincoln.
j.buchanan going friday...should be...baseball...or something like it.
Wow. I didn't know they could do that.
Nice for Willson, not so much for Addy.
Game is officially called...also officially a tie.
Stats count, no make-up date of course.