Grabow Deal Near Completion
Bruce Levine is reporting that a deal with John Grabow should be completed today for two years and nearly 7.5 million. I had expressed my indifference in the past over resigning Grabow. Oh sure, his ERA has been pretty good the last two years, but with a BB/9 rate near 5 last year and 4.15 for his career, I don't think anyone would really miss him if he got away. I was asked in the comments yesterday how I'd handle this situation and here was my response.
I offer Grabow arbitration and wait to see if he takes it...chances are
he will because a team doesn't want to give up a draft pick for a
set-up man(ed. note - Grabow is classified as a Type A free agent). That'll cost the Cubs probably an extra $1M this year, but
if Ricketts is serious about propping the farm system, he'll roll the
dice(ed. note - when I say Ricketts, I mean they'll offer to cover Hendry's budget if Grabow wins a big arbitration case). Maybe the Cubs get lucky and a team with a protected pick signs
him or one that signed a few other FA's and the Cubs score some extra
draft picks. If he does sign with another team, I wait until February
when inevitably some lefties will still be around and sign one or two
on the cheap. I imagine you can find a few on the trade market for Jake
Fox who will likely be traded, since he's out of options and in Lou's
In general, I could care less if the Cubs have even one lefty in
their pen. It's a stupid unnecessary crutch for a manager so he can
make safe moves that the media won't blast him on. The Angels did
plenty good for awhile with their pen with no lefties (before Oliver
and Fuentes). Better off finding good relievers that can get guys from
both sides of the plate and you'll trust for an inning or longer. Cubs
had a great LOOGY in Ohman and couldn't figure out to use him.1
And I don't mind Grabow, he can get guys from both sides of the
plate, I just think's just slightly above average and I'm also not sure
Lou will use him properly, which is a full inning at a time, rather
than a match-up lefty.
Now when I wrote that, I figured Grabow could get anywhere from $4-$5M in arbitration case due to the 2.84 and 3.36 ERA's the last two years, near the top in holds, a handful of saves and Type A free agent classification. That would be a hefty raise from the $2.3M he made in 2008.
But I looked a little further at contracts signed by set-up men and relievers last year and I probably guessed a little high.
Jeremy Affeldt - 2 years/$8M total
Juan Cruz - 2 years/$6M total (there's a $4M 2011 option or $500K buyout, so $6.5M guaranteed)
Kyle Farnsworth - 2 years/$8.75M (there's a $5.25M 2011 option or $500K buyout, so $9.25M guaranteed plus incentives that could earn him more)2
Joe Beimel - 1 year/$2M
Will Ohman - 1 year/$1.35M
Latroy Hawkins - 1 year/$3.5M
I think Affeldt might be the best comp for Grabow, coming off two good seasons before 2009 and in his first year of free agency and both pitchers don't show much of a disparity between getting righties or lefties out. So at the high end, we could expect Grabow to maybe get $4M in arbitration.
Considering that assumption and considering that relievers tend to be rather volatile from year-to-year, it would seem like a good idea to not tie yourself up to a multi-year offer if you don't have to unless you feel you're getting a pretty good discount or certain that Grabow could deliver two good seasons in a row. Now we don't know the contract specifics quite yet, but at an average of $3.75M per year, Hendry looks to be paying the top of the scale and doing it for two years now, when he probably could have gotten away with just one by offering arbitration. Now maybe the deal will be one of Hendry's famous back-loaded deals as the Cubs have money coming off the books next year, but I fail to see how the Cubs aren't doing anything but paying at the top of payscale range here for Grabow's services.
So then can the Cubs safely assume that he'll continue to pitch well the next two years? Well I certainly don't think you can assume that at all. His career ERA is 4.05 and his career FIP is 4.18 including 4.54 in 2008 and 4.20 in 2009 amidst the two seasons that will have earned him this new deal. That doesn't instill a lot of confidence in me that he can repeat what he's been doing, although that's not to say that he won't. It just indicates to me that Grabow is probably nothing special amongst his fraternity of relievers and not someone that warranted a multi-year deal. And when you have a player that isn't particularly special and have the opportunity to sign him to a one-year deal instead of two, I think you take that opportunity. Of course, the Cubs could have lost Grabow to free agency, but the potential of getting two extra draft picks is worth that risk.
1 - speaking of my left-handed bullpen crutch rant, this was Grabow's 2007 entry in Baseball Prospectus which I found on his PECOTA page. Now Grabow isn't what many would consider a LOOGY, but getting lefties out will be very much one of his primary roles on the team.
You can make a strong argument that no team needs a LOOGY. Mike
Scioscia won 92 games and a division title in 2004 without having a
lefty reliever on his team. LOOGies do more harm than good because they
end up facing just as many righties than lefties as a result of walks
and pinch-hitters, and take up precious roster space without providing
2 - Points and laughs at Royals
They've mentioned Henry Rodriguez (2013), Chris Carpenter, and Andrew Cashner as Cubs who have gone 100+. They said Rodriguez was tops at 100.8. Who knows before 2008?
He'll play regardless of what he does, just like Soriano played for seven years before they finally ditched him.
What can they do? All I can think of is they can keep hiring and firing hitting coaches until they find one who can get him to stop hitting balls with the handle of the bat.
(All those broken bats added to his paycheck is just a bit much.)
Lester will probably be all right.
I think Arrieta might have added too much muscle preparing for that butt-naked ESPN photo shoot. Pitchers are supposed to be loose, not muscled up.
I have basically written off Heyward for this year -- if you are working on major swing changes in late July, you are going to struggle. Hopefully, he can be more productive at the plate next year. It will be interesting to see what they do with him if the Cardinals keep winning and close the gap. Heyward is dead last in the NL in slugging and in the bottom 5 in OPS -- yet still has a positive WAR. Hunh.
Has anybody in a Cub uniform ever thrown a ball 103 before?
He certainly looks better, no doubt, and is a different player than what we saw when he first came up. Full credit to him for changing his approach and saving his career.
But he has zero walks in 35AB since the break, and 10 in 251 AB all year. He does seem to be able to hit some pitches out of the zone, but, a guy with his pop should be drawing more walks. However, it's easy to forget he is still only 23, and probably trying to make an impact to prove he should be an everyday player.
The usual suspects, Molina and Wong. Gyorko drew a walk with two outs, none on. I recall us (particularly Szczur and Bryant) swinging at everything Familia threw.
Yup. Thanks Q
Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTNekUcY-XM
I for one hope that Sosa comes back soon.
O/B interesting you should mention that. Google ESPN Science Aroldis Chapman and you'll be treated to how his mechanics and delivery are possibly historic. It's the 120% of his body stretch plus the torque. They compare him to the Unit and NRyan.
Amazing how much lower the production gets when Bryant runs into a mini-cold streak. He doesn't stay cold for long. If just one of Zobrist or, gulp, Heyward, gets hot, they oughta have one more really nice winning streak in them. Having a closer that you have absolute confidence in can't hurt.
I hope they hold onto Jimenez. Outfield depth is questionable, especially with McKinney, who struggled this year but still, gone.
You don't think he's improved? He looks completely different out there than he did when he first came up. The last I checked his K rate was in the low 20% range - 22-23 or so. When he came up it was 40%+.
To me, what is scary about him if I'm the other guy is that he IS learning the strike zone. This guy could easily be the MVP someday.
So, playing .500 for the rest of the year puts them at 91 wins. You would think there is enough talent to do a little better than that, right?
First team to 60 wins! Onward to 70, 80, 90 and 100!