When the Baseball World Slows to a Halt
Who do you turn to?
It's been really slow in the Cub universe of news. The baseball winter meetings were a horror show as far as this Cub fan could tell.
I'm incredibly news starved when you consider that I took running notes on BL's "Talking Baseball" show on ESPN-1000 radio. This week, his 2 hour baseball gab session with sidekick Jonathan Hood covered three main Cub topics: CF, 2B and the bullpen.
So here's an IV dose of baseball, Bruce Levine "Talking Baseball" style. What follows are my notes and occasional commentary from the Saturday post-Christmas program. After the jump...
BL's Opening statement: Cub fans may still be disappointed with Jim Hendry not adding to the team yet (no kidding!).
Matt Capps - Bruce Levine said he's not sure Hendry got beyond the basic parameters of a contract. BL couldn't confirm that any formal contract offer was made. He thought Hendry needed to do a back loaded 2 year deal to get Capps. Ultimately, Capps took a one year deal as a closer thinking that he'll do even better in one year, either in his last year of arbitration eligibility or as again a non-tendered free agent. BL says Hendry would backload a one year deal if that were possible but BL says they don't allow that. We can expect Jim Hendry will recommend a backloaded a one year deal with Dunkin' Donuts though (insert your own gratuitous donut joke...ta da boom).
If the Cubs have about $8M to spend for 3 players (OF, 2B, BP), Hendry will need to do his backloading thing on whoever they sign (for any contract beyond one year).
Cubs needs: CF
Marlon Byrd is probably the fit, given the Jaramillo factor which will provide a comfort level for Byrd. Byrd is coming off of a career year at age 33. Where does hit in the order? Batting #5 thru #7. How much of a contractural commitment beyond one year is an issue.
The Cubs had no interest in Coco Crisp (now signed with A's) because of concerns about his health and that he's too far away from his peak year.
Why consider Scott Podsednik? Because he's a leadoff man. Adequate LF, not a good CF. Not good on the base paths with lots of gaffs and he gets picked off a lot. Theriot is better as a #2 hitter or 7,8 (but not a leadoff hitter).
Trade possibilities for CF - David DeJesus (KC).
Reed Johnson - Levine says that his agent is talking to Yankees.
Cubs needs: 2B
Caller mentions consideration of a one year deal with Orlando Cabrera or Miguel Tejada at SS, moving Theriot to 2B while waiting for Starlin Castro to develop. Levine is a big Cabrera fan because he manages to go to the playoffs every year. Levine mentions he's got a rep of not being a team guy but can lead off because he takes pitches. Cabrera is coming off of a $7M deal so a lowball deal might make him disgruntled. BL recalled Cabrera's involvement in the three team 2004 trade that netted the Cubs Nomar Garciaparra (Cabrera went to Boston, who did eventually did win the World Series that season).
Bruce Levine discussed Ryan Theriot in detail, in the context of the Cubs evaluation of their own minor league system's talent. Theriot could have easily fallen through the system (I remember the failed experiment to turn him into a switch hitter). BL says nobody in the Cubs system projected him as a starting SS, but when Piniella saw Ceasar Izturis was not bringing anything, he gave him a shot. Theriot is a gutsy little guy. Coaches (Trammel and DeJesus) worked on his footwork to help some. Theriot has been a very good offensive player and an adequate SS but he'll never remind one of Omar Vizquel. I (don't we all) expect his ultimate destination is 2B, but who knows if that shift can happen as soon as this season.
Zambrano in a trade?
Put those rumors to rest. Cubs weren't interesting in trading Z but like any team they should be listening to offers (to understand his market value). Z will not waive his NTC per his agent Barry Praver. Z has been living in Chicago this winter for the first time and working very hard with a personal trainer. Levine said that it was a mistake to use Z as a pinch hitter letting him run the bases and risking him to injury if you are wanting Z to pitch more than 30 games a season.
Cubs needs: Bullpen
Caller asks about who is next on their reliever acquisition radar. Cubs have extreme interest in Kiko Calero. Makes me wonder what he was thinking when he unloaded Michael Wuertz for Billy Goat Beanes (see the above comments on evaluating your own talent). At least we've gotten rid of Aaron Heilman and all the other mistakes named Aaron from the 2008 offseason.
The Cubs have talked to Jose Contreras agent considering him as a starter/swingman.
Caller asks about the using the upcoming minor talent for the bullpen. BL says Esmalin Caridad will get a shot in the pen and Cubs are expecting Samardzija to be a starter (at some point).
Bruce Levine's Cubs top 10 of the Decade: 1. ARam, 2. Zambrano, 3. DLee, 4. Kerry Wood, 5. Dempster, 6. Sosa, 7. Moises Alou, 8. Theriot, 9. Prior, 10. DeRosa
I'm going back to my cave to hibernate.
he subscribes to my twitter, he's beyond TCR. #yolo #swag
Whoops. Maddon must have been reading TCR (for his daily crunch) and got confused.
kuhl is a righty, not a lefty.
i think maddon might think kuhl is a lefty, too. i wonder what the reasoning is for baez leading off vs a rightie.
"trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."
that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that point would have jumped out more.
crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?
And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.
But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.
early tim tebow stuff rolling in...
ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power
it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.
LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.
Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).
it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.
plus, the kids deserve it.
The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either.
That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy.
Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.
"i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date."
This level of discourse is #charming.
I would be having this discussion with anyone who (a) blathered on ad nauseum about the topic. (See, "Olt, Mike, not given an opportunity") or (b) responded directly to what I posted (which you did).
Have a nice day.
what would you do without me? aside from having your posting content here cut by 75%+?
i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date.
In this instance, yes, I care more about the result of this big thing that isn't really a big thing.
Fangraphs WAR #s include baserunning and Hamilton is elite at that. He leads in SBs with the 54 and and has an 87% rate which is really good. I'm sure once he gets on base he's able to take the extra base quite often too. Both those things will up his overall WAR value.
The differences between BR and FG WAR is pretty well documented online and thus If there are discrepancies it's fairly easy to figure out why. It's fairly well accepted that BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is better at predicting future value.
i have no doubt at all you quit reading at that point. you're very enamored with outcomes without caring what it takes to get there.
the fact it's exploitable, especially without someone to cover the running game for him, as well it's evolution in how people are testing possible exploits is interesting to some people...to me...i'm some people...hurrah.
some people want to check the boxscore to see who won, some want to know how it went down.