2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Fangraphs has added the CHONE projections on their player pages along with the Bill James projections. The Hardball Times comes out with theirs in their pre-season annual and of course Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA should be out shortly. But I promised updates when I put up the Bill James projections, so here are the wOBA CHONE projections (league average is generally around the .330 mark, give or take a few points).
Player |
Age |
2009 wOBA |
Bill James 2010 wOBA Projection |
CHONE 2010 wOBA Projection |
Derrek Lee |
34 | .412 | .386 | .371 |
Aramis Ramirez |
32 |
.392 |
.375 |
.373 |
Geovany Soto |
27 | .310 | .362 | .358 |
Micah Hoffpauir |
30 |
.315 | .350 | .337 |
Kosuke Fukudome |
33 | .346 | .349 | .343 |
Marlon Byrd | 32 | .345 | .335 | .347 |
Jeff Baker |
29 |
.338 | .346 | .325 |
Alfonso Soriano | 34 |
.314 | .346 | .338 |
Mike Fontenot |
30 |
.296 | .334 | .321 |
Ryan Theriot |
30 |
.318 |
.319 |
.324 |
Sam Fuld |
28 |
.367 | .317 | .318 |
Tyler Colvin |
24 | .205 | .316 |
.308 |
Reed Johnson |
33 |
.321 | .312 |
.320 |
Koyie Hill |
31 |
.279 |
.289 |
.287 |
Andres Blanco |
26 |
.271 | .285 | .301 |
For the pitchers, here's their projected CHONE ERA and FIP (explanation of FIP here).
Player |
Age | 2009 ERA |
2009 FIP |
2010 CHONE Projected ERA |
2010 CHONE Projected FIP |
Carlos Zambrano | 29 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 4.28 | 4.08 |
Ted Lilly |
34 | 3.10 |
3.65 |
4.21 |
4.10 |
Ryan Dempster |
33 |
3.65 |
3.87 |
4.12 |
3.89 |
Randy Wells |
27 |
3.05 |
3.88 |
4.53 |
4.27 |
Sean Marshall |
27 |
4.32 |
4.19 |
3.97 |
3.88 |
Tom Gorzelanny |
27 | 5.55 |
3.91 |
4.41 | 4.43 |
Jeff Samardzija |
25 | 7.53 |
5.90 |
4.57 |
4.74 |
Carlos Marmol |
27 | 3.41 |
4.06 |
3.34 | 3.48 |
John Grabow |
31 | 3.36 | 4.20 |
4.29 |
4.46 |
Angel Guzman |
28 |
2.95 | 4.44 | 3.89 |
3.91 |
Carlos Silva | 30 | 8.60 | 5.97 | 5.05 | 4.67 |
Justin Berg | 26 | 0.75 | 2.18 | 4.85 | 4.92 |
Esmailin Caridad | 26 | 1.40 | 2.27 | 5.29 | 5.05 |
David Patton | 26 | 6.83 | 5.37 | 5.36 | 5.08 |
Jeff Stevens | 26 | 7.11 | 5.86 | 4.13 | 4.05 |
Here are the Bill James projections again for reference
Player |
Age | 2009 ERA |
2009 FIP |
2010 James Projected ERA |
2010 James Projected FIP |
Carlos Zambrano | 29 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
Ted Lilly |
34 | 3.10 |
3.65 |
3.76 |
4.30 |
Ryan Dempster |
33 |
3.65 |
3.87 |
3.83 |
3.92 |
Randy Wells |
27 |
3.05 |
3.88 |
4.16 |
4.10 |
Sean Marshall |
27 |
4.32 |
4.19 |
4.06 |
4.34 |
Tom Gorzelanny |
27 | 5.55 |
3.91 |
4.11 | 4.01 |
Jeff Samardzija |
25 | 7.53 |
5.90 |
5.44 |
5.47 |
Carlos Marmol |
27 | 3.41 |
4.06 |
3.45 | 4.00 |
John Grabow |
31 | 3.36 | 4.20 |
4.00 |
4.17 |
Angel Guzman |
28 |
2.95 | 4.44 | 4.03 |
4.11 |
Carlos Silva | 30 | 8.60 | 5.97 | 4.85 | 4.64 |
Esmailin Caridad | 26 | 1.40 | 2.27 | 4.85 | 5.10 |
CHONE projections seem more conservative overall and are particularly unkind to the Cubs starting staff. Offensively, the Cubs would have 6 above average regulars with Theriot and Baker or Fontenot below .330. Then of course, they're just projections, no reason to take them too seriously. For 2009, the Cubs were runaway winners of the NL Central if you looked at them. But just for fun, the Cardinals regulars projected wOBA: Pujols (.431), Holliday (.389), Ludwick (.356), Rasmus (.343), Freese (.340), Schumaker(.335)/Lugo(.314), Molina (.329), Ryan (.310).
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