Cubs' PECOTA Projections
Here are the weighted means from BP's PECOTA projection system in a few categories for the Cubs. PECOTA does try to project playing time, so cumulative stats like VORP and WARP are based off of that.
They have Fukudome listed as a center fielder, so I assume that would affect his VORP and WARP scores a bit. Otherwise here are the hitters sorted by EqA.
Player | Age |
POS | VORP | EqA | WARP |
Aramis Ramirez | 32 |
3B | 30 | .293 | 3.3 |
Derrek Lee |
34 |
1B |
18 | .281 | 2.0 |
Geovany Soto |
27 |
C |
31 | .279 | 3.2 |
Marlon Byrd |
32 |
CF |
22 | .271 | 2.0 |
Kosukue Fukudome |
33 |
RF |
19 | .266 | 2.0 |
Micah Hoffpauir |
30 |
1B |
5 | .264 | 1.1 |
Alfonso Soriano |
34 |
LF |
11 | .262 | 2.5 |
Jeff Baker |
29 |
2B |
12 | .259 | 1.0 |
Ryan Theriot |
30 |
SS |
20 | .257 | 1.2 |
Mike Fontenot |
30 |
2B |
12 | .257 | 1.2 |
Chad Tracy |
30 |
1B |
0 | .253 | 0.2 |
Xavier Nady |
31 |
RF |
3 | .253 | 0.3 |
Andres Blanco |
26 |
SS |
3 | .240 | 0.0 |
Sam Fuld |
28 |
CF |
2 | .237 | 0.2 |
Koyie Hill |
31 |
C |
1 | .223 | 0.1 |
...and your pitchers sorted by VORP. I assume there's no setting for starting the season on the disabled list for Lilly.
Player | Age | ERA | VORP | WXRL | WARP |
Ted Lilly | 34 | 3.82 | 29.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
Carlos Zambrano | 29 | 4.00 | 26.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
Ryan Dempster | 33 | 4.09 | 20.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
Carlos Marmol | 27 | 3.09 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
Randy Wells | 27 | 4.64 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
Tom Gorzelanny | 27 | 4.61 | 10.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
John Grabow | 31 | 4.26 | 10.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Angel Guzman | 28 | 3.86 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
Sean Marshall | 27 | 4.39 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Jeff Gray | 28 | 5 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
Esmailin Caridad | 24 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Jeff Samardzija | 25 | 5.48 | -0.5 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
Mitch Atkins | 24 | 5.44 | -2.1 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
David Patton | 26 | 6.7 | -3.8 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
Carlos Silva | 31 | 5.32 | -6.0 | 0.9 | -0.6 |
Nothing to take too seriously, but PECOTA sure doesn't seem to like the Cubs much. I added 34.9 Wins above replacement and I think a team of replacement level players is around 47 wins. If I did that right (and it's very, very possible I did that wrong), I come up with about an 82 win team.
UPDATE: If the BP depth chart uses the same projections and math, they're even more pessimistic and have the Cubs at 77 wins. A team full of replacement level players according to BP math at one point would win 44 games, athough it's been adjusted a few times since originally calculated (thanks to "stevens" and "navigator" for the help in the comments).
UPDATE #2: Sobering thought...this is the lowest amount of wins predicted by PECOTA for the Cubs that dates back to 2003.
2010: 77 wins
2009: 92 wins (won 83 games), -9
2008: 89 wins (won 97 games), +8
2007: 85 wins (won 85 games), 0
2006: 85 wins (won 66 games), -19
2005: 89 wins (won 79 games), -10
2004: 92 wins (won 89 games), -3
2003: 83 wins (won 88 games), +5
Originally, the Cubs were down for 96 wins in 2009, but BP does adjust as the season approaches.
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