Cubs MLB Roster

Cubs Organizational Depth Chart
40-Man Roster Info

40 players are on the MLB RESERVE LIST (roster is full) 

28 players on MLB RESERVE LIST are ACTIVE, and twelve players are on OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT to minors. 

Last updated 3-26-2024
 
* bats or throws left
# bats both

PITCHERS: 15
Yency Almonte
Adbert Alzolay 
Javier Assad
Jose Cuas
Kyle Hendricks
* Shota Imanaga
Caleb Kilian
Mark Leiter Jr
* Luke Little
Julian Merryweather
Hector Neris 
* Drew Smyly
* Justin Steele
Jameson Taillon
* Jordan Wicks

CATCHERS: 2
Miguel Amaya
Yan Gomes

INFIELDERS: 7
* Michael Busch 
Nico Hoerner
Nick Madrigal
* Miles Mastrobuoni
Christopher Morel
Dansby Swanson
Patrick Wisdom

OUTFIELDERS: 4
* Cody Bellinger 
Alexander Canario
# Ian Happ
Seiya Suzuki
* Mike Tauchman 

OPTIONED: 12 
Kevin Alcantara, OF 
Michael Arias, P 
Ben Brown, P 
Alexander Canario, OF 
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF 
Brennen Davis, OF 
Porter Hodge, P 
* Matt Mervis, 1B 
Daniel Palencia, P 
Keegan Thompson, P 
Luis Vazquez, INF 
Hayden Wesneski, P 

 



 

Minor League Rosters
Rule 5 Draft 
Minor League Free-Agents

Cubs' PECOTA Projections

Here are the weighted means from BP's PECOTA projection system in a few categories for the Cubs. PECOTA does try to project playing time, so cumulative stats like VORP and WARP are based off of that.

They have Fukudome listed as a center fielder, so I assume that would affect his VORP and WARP scores a bit. Otherwise here are the hitters sorted by EqA.

Player Age
 POS VORP EqA WARP
Aramis Ramirez 32
 3B 30 .293 3.3
Derrek Lee
34
1B
18 .281 2.0
Geovany Soto
27
C
31 .279 3.2
Marlon Byrd
32
CF
22 .271 2.0
Kosukue Fukudome
33
RF
19 .266 2.0
Micah Hoffpauir
30
1B
5 .264 1.1
Alfonso Soriano
34
LF
11 .262 2.5
Jeff Baker
29
2B
12 .259 1.0
Ryan Theriot
30
SS
20 .257 1.2
Mike Fontenot
30
2B
12 .257 1.2
Chad Tracy
30
1B
0 .253 0.2
Xavier Nady
31
RF
3 .253 0.3
Andres Blanco
26
SS
3 .240 0.0
Sam Fuld
28
CF
2 .237 0.2
Koyie Hill
31
C
1 .223 0.1

...and your pitchers sorted by VORP. I assume there's no setting for starting the season on the disabled list for Lilly.

Player Age ERA VORP WXRL WARP
Ted Lilly 34 3.82 29.1 3.2 3.1
Carlos Zambrano 29 4.00 26.1 3.0 2.8
Ryan Dempster 33 4.09 20.9 2.8 2.3
Carlos Marmol 27 3.09 17.0 2.0 1.9
Randy Wells 27 4.64 12.2 2.3 1.3
Tom Gorzelanny 27 4.61 10.1 2.0 1.0
John Grabow 31 4.26 10.1 1.3 1.1
Angel Guzman 28 3.86 8.5 1.2 0.9
Sean Marshall 27 4.39 7.4 1.1 0.8
Jeff Gray 28 5 6.8 0.9 0.7
Esmailin Caridad 24 5.4 0.3 0.7 0.0
Jeff Samardzija 25 5.48 -0.5 1.0 -0.1
Mitch Atkins 24 5.44 -2.1 0.8 -0.2
David Patton 26 6.7 -3.8 0.3 -0.4
Carlos Silva 31 5.32 -6.0 0.9 -0.6

Nothing to take too seriously, but PECOTA sure doesn't seem to like the Cubs much. I added 34.9 Wins above replacement and I think a team of replacement level players is around 47 wins. If I did that right (and it's very, very possible I did that wrong), I come up with about an 82 win team.

UPDATE: If the BP depth chart uses the same projections and math, they're even more pessimistic and have the Cubs at 77 wins. A team full of replacement level players according to BP math at one point would win 44 games, athough it's been adjusted a few times since originally calculated (thanks to "stevens" and "navigator" for the help in the comments).

UPDATE #2: Sobering thought...this is the lowest amount of wins predicted by PECOTA for the Cubs that dates back to 2003.


2010: 77 wins
2009: 92 wins (won 83 games), -9
2008: 89 wins (won 97 games), +8
2007: 85 wins (won 85 games), 0
2006: 85 wins (won 66 games), -19
2005: 89 wins (won 79 games), -10
2004: 92 wins (won 89 games), -3
2003: 83 wins (won 88 games), +5

Originally, the Cubs were down for 96 wins in 2009, but BP does adjust as the season approaches.

Comments

I think the Cubs are a little better than that 82 win prediction. However the window is closing really fast. That is part of the reason I was pro-arbitration for Rich Harden. We need to get some impact kids into the pipeline. I don't see anyone in the pipeline that is a slam dunk can't miss prospect. Especially as a corner bat.

Rays 96 wins, RSox 95, Yanks 93, A's win West with 87 wins Nationals at 82 wins, Phils just at 88, Cards the class of the NL with 89

yeesh...it's just an older team. pectoa is off by 5-7 "wins" traditionally, anyway...on average.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

team averages of w/l are off 5-7 traditionally. sometimes a bit over 7 (only once i think) but closer to 5 on whole. pectoa vs. vegas has been funny to watch ebb/flow of handicapping. in 2008 after a very successful pectoa year predicting games a few handicappers adopted it only to see it fall on it's face in 09.

[ ]

In reply to by crunch

I assume you mean this... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA
A summary for the 2003 through 2007 seasons shows that PECOTA's average error between the predicted and actual team wins declined[36]: 2003 5.91 wins; 2004 7.71 wins; 2005 5.14 wins; 2006 4.94 wins; 2007 4.31 wins. Silver conjectures that the improvement has come in part from taking defense into account in the forecasts beginning in 2005. It should be noted that in 2008 the average error was 8.5 wins.[37]
and as you said, apparently way off in 2009 nonetheless, that puts the Cubs at 72-82 wins then...lovely.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

if it wasnt for age and injury things would be a little more rosey. given that dlee, soriano, and aram like to stay in shape i'm not worried that much...actually, i am worried about soriano's bat speed, but that's a non-pectoa/non-history-stats-based/non-peer-related issue. Z and dumpster better be ready for 2010...they got a bit of the team to "carry" a while.

http://sixfourthreeblog.com/2009/03/31/analyzing-the-2009-pecota-projec… (+ means more wins than Pecota predicted, average age in parenthesis) Rockies +20 (27.7) Marlins +17 (26.8) Rangers +16 (27.6) Angels +13 (29.6) Giants +12 (29.1) Cardinals +10 (28.4) Twins +9 (27.6) Mariners +9 (29.9) Phillies +7 (31.2) White Sox +5 (29.8) Astros +5 (31.6) Dodgers +4 (29.8) Yanks +4 (30.7) Tigers +2 (29.9) Blue Jays +2 (29.9) Red Sox +1 (30.1) Padres +1 (28.0) Braves 0 (28.8) Reds -1 (27.7) Pirates -2 (27.0) Brewers -5 (29.3) Cubs -9 (30.1) A's -9 (29.1) Rays -11 (27.8) Royals -11 (27.6) Orioles -12 (28.7) Nationals -16 (28.2) DBacks -17 (26.3) Mets -20 (29.5) Indians -21 (27.4) if anyone has total days on DL for a team, that would be interesting to note. otherwise, if you're looking for a surprise team, be young.

BTW, Rob, there's a typo in the title. You know, for all those top brass bigwigs that read this blog.

NADY? NADY? NADY? HAs anyone seen if Nady passed his physical which was supposed to have been completed by today? Calling CUBSTER?

Actually, after checking around - I noticed this on Bruce Miles' blog from today. He also mentions that IF the Cubs carry 12 pitchers and IF NAdy passes his physical - there are four guys competing for one spot out of ST - which AZ Phil alludes to: Sam Fuld, Tracy, LaHair and Hoffpauir. "Of course, injuries and good/poor performances in spring training will determine things further. The Cubs will have a bunch of youngsters in camp." "The physical was either Wednesday or Thursday, and it's his elbow, not his shoulder, that's the concern. I suspect we'll have something tomorrow."

[ ]

In reply to by The Real Neal

take pot shots? it's how the stuff works so far. it's been refined. what's it been refined with? improvements learned by crap or inconsistent data being produced. all this stuff is continuously tweaked because they learn from their fail and take another stab at trying to improve it. it's not pot shots if you back up what you're bitching about.

HAs anyone seen if Nady passed his physical which was supposed to have been completed by today? Calling CUBSTER? --- No word yet on Nady's physical from Thursday. Probably will hear about it tomorrow. Any delay might be because they may have wanted a new post-op MRI to review for medical clearance... Muskat has a detailed piece on Nady's TJ surgery and an interview with catcher Vance Wilson (outfielder, Jay Payton and Wilson are the only other position player with two TJ surgeries). http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100128&content_id=79… Apparently Nady's first surgery did use the Plantaris tendon in his leg. So the second probably used the traditional Palmaris Longus from the forearm.
Nady underwent his first Tommy John surgery -- a procedure in which doctors use a tendon from a different part of the body to replace a torn ulnar collateral ligament in the elbow -- on Sept. 29, 2001, when Nady was still a San Diego Padres prospect. In Nady's case, the tendon came from his right lower leg.
Royals director of Minor League operations Scott Sharp said one trainer told him that players who undergo a second Tommy John surgery only have about a 10-percent chance to get back to their previous level, whether that's rookie ball or the big leagues.
Note wrt the above "Trainer" comment: pretty tough to say there is a 10% chance of full recovery when there have been only 2 outfielders who fit into this repeat TJ surgery category. Payton did return to the majors, although I'm not sure if his skills weren't as good after the 2nd surgery. Wilson isn't a good comp since 1) he is a catcher and 2) he also had a torn flexor origin at the time of this TJ surgery...aka, the Ben Sheets operation.

[ ]

In reply to by Cubster

Jay Payton had his two TJ surgeries before he made it to the majors. His surgeries were in 1995 (age 22) and 1997 (age 24) well before he became a full time player in 2000 (age 27) with the Mets (in 2000. 529 PA, 17 HR, .291/.331/.447/.778). His career high in HR's was 2003 with the Rockies (28). So I'll consider his 2nd TJ procedure a resounding success. Still it's early postop for Nady on this procedure and even this comp is iffy because Nady's 31 yrs old. My take is he'll be fine as long as he's not forced into an everyday role early in the season.

[ ]

In reply to by Cubster

from the Muskat article...Looks like Nady took 7 months to recover from his first surgery at age 22. End of Sept 2001 surgery and back for April opening day. Of course his immediate post recovery stats are from the minors but he did flash some power even that year.
However, it can be a much quicker recovery for hitters, and Nady was back on the field the following April for Opening Day. He went on to bat .281 in 2002 with 23 home runs and 80 RBIs between Class A Lake Elsinore and Double-A Portland.

You know, I looked at these same projections yesterday and figured there was something not right. Is Jeff Baker really going to hit 13 HR's in a short platoon roll and as a PH? Is Fuld really going to see as many PH/DH at bats as Hoffpauir if Michah's OPS is .110 higher? Where's the defense, is it factored into the pitcher's VORP? Is David Patton really going to get 55 innings of 6.70 ERA pitching? Hopefully they'll make some down from crack high corrections to the projected rosters and playing times before the start of the season and then we'll get a true picture of what the PECOTA actually expects.

[ ]

In reply to by The Real Neal

Comment from Jay Jaffee about the BP projections: As somebody who follows the projected standings quite closely (since they ultimately turn into the preseason Hit List, among other things), I just want to sound an early note of caution that the Projected Standings will be adjusted quite frequently throughout the spring as playing time estimates evolve due to late signings, trades, injuries, prospects panning out (or not), batting orders and pitching staff roles being clarified, etc. What you see here on January 27 could look significantly different two months from now. Case in point, last year's initial projection had the Diamondbacks ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West, but the signings of Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson and Manny Ramirez changed all that.

[ ]

In reply to by The Real Neal

as I noted at the end of the post, the Cubs started at 96 games last year and it was changed to 92 games by the end of spring training.

[ ]

In reply to by The Real Neal

Lindsey Willhite over at the Daily Herald has this:
Last year, the average NL team scored 717.5 runs. The PECOTA predictions say San Diego will be last in runs scored at 718. Unless PECOTA senses a surge in performance-enhancing bats and balls and bodies, these numbers are goofy. Ah, now I see the problem. BP's Christina Kahrl said in a chat that PECOTA doesn't have the proper depth-chart analyses at this time.
Maybe they should hold off the release of these PECOTA projections until after ST.

[ ]

In reply to by The Real Neal

Is Jeff Baker really going to hit 13 HR's in a short platoon roll and as a PH? Is Fuld really going to see as many PH/DH at bats as Hoffpauir if Michah's OPS is .110 higher?
fwiw, they have Aramis at 105 games and Soriano at 96 games and 128 for Lee, which would then in turn give more Ab's to Baker, Fontenot and Hoffpauir by the way they have it set up at the moment. They only have 69 for Nady (although they think Hoffpauir will hit better anyway) and 128 for Fuku and 120 for Byrd.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

The Aram projections don't make any sense, but it's really the negative pitching numbers that are stupid wrong. Patton and Silva and Samardizja simply aren't going to get that many innings if they pitch that poorly. Just like Patton didn't last year. They're relievers, you just keep cycling them in until you find someone who succeeds, and with Jackson, Gaub, Parker, Cashner etc in the wings, Silva isn't going to get 60 meaningful innings unless he pitches better.

Thankfully they actually will play the season rather than just project it. I wonder if they use PECOTA on the 1906 season who should win the World Series in 1907?

http://www.omaha.com/article/20100128/BLUEJAYS/701289711
The other thing, and anyone who knows Hendry knows this, is that his language, especially in a locker-room setting, can get a bit salty. And he was at his saltiest best when talking to the Bluejays. “I don’t go to church,’’ forward Chad Millard said, “but if I did, I imagine I wouldn’t be hearing too many of the words there that he was using.’’ In terms that wouldn’t be fit to print in a public setting, Hendry told the Bluejays that they needed to man-up and finish the season right. He said no Creighton team should be playing .500 basketball. It was up to the players, Hendry said, to get this thing turned around. If they’re not willing to get with the program, he said, then get off the bus.

[ ]

In reply to by Ryno

Wait for a June/July night game at Wrigley, when sun is setting. Directors dream of that type of lighting.

Noticed the projections do not include Sean Marshal playing left. And we have Rothschild. Big Edge.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

I'm not sure what to make of that story. It's presented like it's breaking news, but I don't think there's anything new there. Lar at Wezen-Ball points out that Dawson was not happy with the amount the Cubs filled in on the blank check, but that's not too surprising. The Cubs significantly underpaid Dawson, so you can't blame the guy for not being happy. The bigger point I got from the story was that despite being taken advantage of, Dawson kept the whining to a minimum and let his on-field performance speak for itself. It was an interesting read, but I think the point Lar was trying to make got lost on me.

[ ]

In reply to by Sweet Lou

something that happened in '87 is probably not breaking news, just an interesting story for those that thought Dawson was just dying to play in Chicago no matter the cost. He was desperate (thanks to collusion), but was a man of his word when he said he'd play for whatever they gave him.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

I didn't mean to suggest that the whole story was breaking news. I was talking about the part where Wezen-Ball seemed to stress the fact that Dawson was not happy about the amount he was paid, as if that was new information. Maybe I mis-read what Lar was saying, but I took it as if he was saying, "This Dawson guy wasn't the class act he is portrayed to be." Although it seemed to me he was trying to push this point, I thought the evidence he used did the exact opposite.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob Richardson

yeah, giving out money with no strings attached tends to lead to this. on the flip side, the political/social mindset of these people also leads to not wanting to regulate it. so it's a self defeating system so they don't have to actually put mandatory requirements on money. you'd think we would have seen this in government or other businesses...hmmm... =p

Recent comments

  • crunch (view)

    in other news, it took 3 PA before a.rizzo got his 1st HBP of the season.

  • Eric S (view)

    With two home runs (so far) and 5 rbi today … clearly Nick Martini is the straw that stirs the Reds drink 😳

  • crunch (view)

    madrigal at 3rd...morel at DH.

    making room for madrigal or/and masterboney to get a significant amount of ABs is a misuse of the roster.  if it needed to get taken care of this offseason, they had tons of time to figure that out.

    morel played almost exclusively at 3rd in winter ball and they had him almost exclusively there all spring when he wasn't DH'ing.

    madrigal doing a good job with the glove for a bit over 2 chances per game...is that worth more than what he brings with the bat 4-5 PA a game?  it's 2024 and we got glenn beckert 2.0 manning 3rd base.

    this is a tauchman or cooper DH situation based on bat, alone.  cooper is 3/7 with a double off eovaldi if you want to play the most successful matchup.

    anyway, i hope this is a temporary thing, not business as usual for the rest of the season.  it will be telling if morel is not used at 3rd when an extreme fly ball pitcher like imanaga is on the mound.

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    There are two clear "logjams" in the Cubs minor league pipeline at the present time, namely AA outfielders (K. Alcantara, C. Franklin, Roederer, Pagan, Pinango, Beesley, and Nwogu) and Hi-A infielders (J. Rojas, P. Ramirez, Howard, R. Morel, Pertuz, R. Garcia, and Spence, although Morel has been getting a lot of reps in the outfield in addition to infield). So it is possible that you might see a trade involving one of the extra outfielders at AA and/or one of the extra infielders at Hi-A in the next few days. 

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    18-year old SS Jefferson Rojas almost made the AA Tennessee Opening Day roster, and he is a legit shortstop, so I would expect him to be an MLB Top 100 prospect by mid-season. 

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    Among the relievers in the system, I expect RHRP Hunter Bigge at AAA Iowa and RHRP Ty Johnson at South Bend to have breakout seasons on 2024, and among the starters I see LHP Drew Gray and RHP Will Sanders at South Bend and RHP Naz Mule at ACL Cubs as the guys who will make the biggest splash. Also, Jaxon Wiggins is throwing bullpen sides, so once he is ready for game action he could be making an impact at Myrtle Beach by June.

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    I expect OF Christian Franklin to have a breakout season at AA Tennessee in 2024. In another organization that doesn't have PCA, Caissie, K. Alcantara, and Canario in their system, C. Franklin would be a Top 10 prospect. 

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    The Reds trading Joe Boyle for Sam Moll at last year's MLB Trade Deadline was like the Phillies trading Ben Brown to the Cubs for David Robertson at the MLB TD in 2022. 

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    Javier Assad started the Lo-A game (Myrtle Beach versus Stockton) on the Cubs backfields on Wednesday as his final Spring Training tune-up. He was supposed to throw five innings / 75 pitches. However, I was at the minor league road games at Fitch so I didn't see Assad pitch. 

  • crunch (view)

    cards put j.young on waivers.

    they really tried to make it happen this spring, but he put up a crazy bad slash of .081/.244/.108 in 45PA.