Cubs MLB Roster

Cubs Organizational Depth Chart
40-Man Roster Info

40 players are on the MLB RESERVE LIST (roster is full), plus two players are on the 60-DAY IL 

26 players on MLB RESERVE LIST are ACTIVE, ten players are on OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT to minors, two players are on the 15-DAY IL, and two players are on the 10-DAY IL

Last updated 4-17-2024
 
* bats or throws left
# bats both

PITCHERS: 13
Yency Almonte
Adbert Alzolay 
Javier Assad
Colten Brewer
Ben Brown
Kyle Hendricks
* Shota Imanaga
Mark Leiter Jr
Hector Neris 
* Drew Smyly
Keegan Thompson
Hayden Wesneski 
* Jordan Wicks

CATCHERS: 2
Miguel Amaya
Yan Gomes

INFIELDERS: 7
* Michael Busch 
Garrett Cooper
Nico Hoerner
Nick Madrigal
* Miles Mastrobuoni
Christopher Morel
Dansby Swanson

OUTFIELDERS: 4
* Cody Bellinger 
# Ian Happ
Seiya Suzuki
* Mike Tauchman 

OPTIONED: 10 
Kevin Alcantara, OF 
Michael Arias, P 
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF 
Jose Cuas, P 
Brennen Davis, OF 
Porter Hodge, P 
* Luke Little, P 
* Matt Mervis, 1B 
Daniel Palencia, P 
Luis Vazquez, INF 

10-DAY IL: 2 
Seiya Suzuki, OF
Patrick Wisdom, INF 

15-DAY IL: 2
* Justin Steele, P  
Jameson Taillon, P 

60-DAY IL: 2 
Caleb Kilian, P 
Julian Merryweather, P
 




Minor League Rosters
Rule 5 Draft 
Minor League Free-Agents

Cubs' PECOTA Projections

Submitted by Rob G. on

Here are the weighted means from BP's PECOTA projection system in a few categories for the Cubs. PECOTA does try to project playing time, so cumulative stats like VORP and WARP are based off of that.

They have Fukudome listed as a center fielder, so I assume that would affect his VORP and WARP scores a bit. Otherwise here are the hitters sorted by EqA.

Player Age
 POS VORP EqA WARP
Aramis Ramirez 32
 3B 30 .293 3.3
Derrek Lee
34
1B
18 .281 2.0
Geovany Soto
27
C
31 .279 3.2
Marlon Byrd
32
CF
22 .271 2.0
Kosukue Fukudome
33
RF
19 .266 2.0
Micah Hoffpauir
30
1B
5 .264 1.1
Alfonso Soriano
34
LF
11 .262 2.5
Jeff Baker
29
2B
12 .259 1.0
Ryan Theriot
30
SS
20 .257 1.2
Mike Fontenot
30
2B
12 .257 1.2
Chad Tracy
30
1B
0 .253 0.2
Xavier Nady
31
RF
3 .253 0.3
Andres Blanco
26
SS
3 .240 0.0
Sam Fuld
28
CF
2 .237 0.2
Koyie Hill
31
C
1 .223 0.1

...and your pitchers sorted by VORP. I assume there's no setting for starting the season on the disabled list for Lilly.

Player Age ERA VORP WXRL WARP
Ted Lilly 34 3.82 29.1 3.2 3.1
Carlos Zambrano 29 4.00 26.1 3.0 2.8
Ryan Dempster 33 4.09 20.9 2.8 2.3
Carlos Marmol 27 3.09 17.0 2.0 1.9
Randy Wells 27 4.64 12.2 2.3 1.3
Tom Gorzelanny 27 4.61 10.1 2.0 1.0
John Grabow 31 4.26 10.1 1.3 1.1
Angel Guzman 28 3.86 8.5 1.2 0.9
Sean Marshall 27 4.39 7.4 1.1 0.8
Jeff Gray 28 5 6.8 0.9 0.7
Esmailin Caridad 24 5.4 0.3 0.7 0.0
Jeff Samardzija 25 5.48 -0.5 1.0 -0.1
Mitch Atkins 24 5.44 -2.1 0.8 -0.2
David Patton 26 6.7 -3.8 0.3 -0.4
Carlos Silva 31 5.32 -6.0 0.9 -0.6

Nothing to take too seriously, but PECOTA sure doesn't seem to like the Cubs much. I added 34.9 Wins above replacement and I think a team of replacement level players is around 47 wins. If I did that right (and it's very, very possible I did that wrong), I come up with about an 82 win team.

UPDATE: If the BP depth chart uses the same projections and math, they're even more pessimistic and have the Cubs at 77 wins. A team full of replacement level players according to BP math at one point would win 44 games, athough it's been adjusted a few times since originally calculated (thanks to "stevens" and "navigator" for the help in the comments).

UPDATE #2: Sobering thought...this is the lowest amount of wins predicted by PECOTA for the Cubs that dates back to 2003.


2010: 77 wins
2009: 92 wins (won 83 games), -9
2008: 89 wins (won 97 games), +8
2007: 85 wins (won 85 games), 0
2006: 85 wins (won 66 games), -19
2005: 89 wins (won 79 games), -10
2004: 92 wins (won 89 games), -3
2003: 83 wins (won 88 games), +5

Originally, the Cubs were down for 96 wins in 2009, but BP does adjust as the season approaches.

Tags
Cubs Projections
PECOTA

Comments

Submitted by Dr. aaron b on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:46 pm

I think the Cubs are a little better than that 82 win prediction. However the window is closing really fast. That is part of the reason I was pro-arbitration for Rich Harden. We need to get some impact kids into the pipeline. I don't see anyone in the pipeline that is a slam dunk can't miss prospect. Especially as a corner bat.

Submitted by Rob G. on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:47 pm

Rays 96 wins, RSox 95, Yanks 93, A's win West with 87 wins Nationals at 82 wins, Phils just at 88, Cards the class of the NL with 89

Submitted by crunch on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:07 pm

yeesh...it's just an older team. pectoa is off by 5-7 "wins" traditionally, anyway...on average.

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Submitted by crunch on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:12 pm

team averages of w/l are off 5-7 traditionally. sometimes a bit over 7 (only once i think) but closer to 5 on whole. pectoa vs. vegas has been funny to watch ebb/flow of handicapping. in 2008 after a very successful pectoa year predicting games a few handicappers adopted it only to see it fall on it's face in 09.

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Submitted by Rob G. on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:21 pm

I assume you mean this... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA
A summary for the 2003 through 2007 seasons shows that PECOTA's average error between the predicted and actual team wins declined[36]: 2003 5.91 wins; 2004 7.71 wins; 2005 5.14 wins; 2006 4.94 wins; 2007 4.31 wins. Silver conjectures that the improvement has come in part from taking defense into account in the forecasts beginning in 2005. It should be noted that in 2008 the average error was 8.5 wins.[37]
and as you said, apparently way off in 2009 nonetheless, that puts the Cubs at 72-82 wins then...lovely.

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Submitted by crunch on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:23 pm

if it wasnt for age and injury things would be a little more rosey. given that dlee, soriano, and aram like to stay in shape i'm not worried that much...actually, i am worried about soriano's bat speed, but that's a non-pectoa/non-history-stats-based/non-peer-related issue. Z and dumpster better be ready for 2010...they got a bit of the team to "carry" a while.

Submitted by Rob G. on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:57 pm

http://sixfourthreeblog.com/2009/03/31/analyzing-the-2009-pecota-projec… (+ means more wins than Pecota predicted, average age in parenthesis) Rockies +20 (27.7) Marlins +17 (26.8) Rangers +16 (27.6) Angels +13 (29.6) Giants +12 (29.1) Cardinals +10 (28.4) Twins +9 (27.6) Mariners +9 (29.9) Phillies +7 (31.2) White Sox +5 (29.8) Astros +5 (31.6) Dodgers +4 (29.8) Yanks +4 (30.7) Tigers +2 (29.9) Blue Jays +2 (29.9) Red Sox +1 (30.1) Padres +1 (28.0) Braves 0 (28.8) Reds -1 (27.7) Pirates -2 (27.0) Brewers -5 (29.3) Cubs -9 (30.1) A's -9 (29.1) Rays -11 (27.8) Royals -11 (27.6) Orioles -12 (28.7) Nationals -16 (28.2) DBacks -17 (26.3) Mets -20 (29.5) Indians -21 (27.4) if anyone has total days on DL for a team, that would be interesting to note. otherwise, if you're looking for a surprise team, be young.

Submitted by Andrew on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:09 pm

BTW, Rob, there's a typo in the title. You know, for all those top brass bigwigs that read this blog.

Submitted by The E-Man on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:27 pm

NADY? NADY? NADY? HAs anyone seen if Nady passed his physical which was supposed to have been completed by today? Calling CUBSTER?

Submitted by The E-Man on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:47 pm

Actually, after checking around - I noticed this on Bruce Miles' blog from today. He also mentions that IF the Cubs carry 12 pitchers and IF NAdy passes his physical - there are four guys competing for one spot out of ST - which AZ Phil alludes to: Sam Fuld, Tracy, LaHair and Hoffpauir. "Of course, injuries and good/poor performances in spring training will determine things further. The Cubs will have a bunch of youngsters in camp." "The physical was either Wednesday or Thursday, and it's his elbow, not his shoulder, that's the concern. I suspect we'll have something tomorrow."

[ ]

Submitted by crunch on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:55 pm

take pot shots? it's how the stuff works so far. it's been refined. what's it been refined with? improvements learned by crap or inconsistent data being produced. all this stuff is continuously tweaked because they learn from their fail and take another stab at trying to improve it. it's not pot shots if you back up what you're bitching about.

Submitted by Cubster on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:07 pm

HAs anyone seen if Nady passed his physical which was supposed to have been completed by today? Calling CUBSTER? --- No word yet on Nady's physical from Thursday. Probably will hear about it tomorrow. Any delay might be because they may have wanted a new post-op MRI to review for medical clearance... Muskat has a detailed piece on Nady's TJ surgery and an interview with catcher Vance Wilson (outfielder, Jay Payton and Wilson are the only other position player with two TJ surgeries). http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100128&content_id=79… Apparently Nady's first surgery did use the Plantaris tendon in his leg. So the second probably used the traditional Palmaris Longus from the forearm.
Nady underwent his first Tommy John surgery -- a procedure in which doctors use a tendon from a different part of the body to replace a torn ulnar collateral ligament in the elbow -- on Sept. 29, 2001, when Nady was still a San Diego Padres prospect. In Nady's case, the tendon came from his right lower leg.
Royals director of Minor League operations Scott Sharp said one trainer told him that players who undergo a second Tommy John surgery only have about a 10-percent chance to get back to their previous level, whether that's rookie ball or the big leagues.
Note wrt the above "Trainer" comment: pretty tough to say there is a 10% chance of full recovery when there have been only 2 outfielders who fit into this repeat TJ surgery category. Payton did return to the majors, although I'm not sure if his skills weren't as good after the 2nd surgery. Wilson isn't a good comp since 1) he is a catcher and 2) he also had a torn flexor origin at the time of this TJ surgery...aka, the Ben Sheets operation.

[ ]

Submitted by Cubster on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:21 pm

Jay Payton had his two TJ surgeries before he made it to the majors. His surgeries were in 1995 (age 22) and 1997 (age 24) well before he became a full time player in 2000 (age 27) with the Mets (in 2000. 529 PA, 17 HR, .291/.331/.447/.778). His career high in HR's was 2003 with the Rockies (28). So I'll consider his 2nd TJ procedure a resounding success. Still it's early postop for Nady on this procedure and even this comp is iffy because Nady's 31 yrs old. My take is he'll be fine as long as he's not forced into an everyday role early in the season.

[ ]

Submitted by Cubster on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:31 pm

from the Muskat article...Looks like Nady took 7 months to recover from his first surgery at age 22. End of Sept 2001 surgery and back for April opening day. Of course his immediate post recovery stats are from the minors but he did flash some power even that year.
However, it can be a much quicker recovery for hitters, and Nady was back on the field the following April for Opening Day. He went on to bat .281 in 2002 with 23 home runs and 80 RBIs between Class A Lake Elsinore and Double-A Portland.

Submitted by The Real Neal on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:55 pm

You know, I looked at these same projections yesterday and figured there was something not right. Is Jeff Baker really going to hit 13 HR's in a short platoon roll and as a PH? Is Fuld really going to see as many PH/DH at bats as Hoffpauir if Michah's OPS is .110 higher? Where's the defense, is it factored into the pitcher's VORP? Is David Patton really going to get 55 innings of 6.70 ERA pitching? Hopefully they'll make some down from crack high corrections to the projected rosters and playing times before the start of the season and then we'll get a true picture of what the PECOTA actually expects.

[ ]

Submitted by The Real Neal on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:12 pm

Comment from Jay Jaffee about the BP projections: As somebody who follows the projected standings quite closely (since they ultimately turn into the preseason Hit List, among other things), I just want to sound an early note of caution that the Projected Standings will be adjusted quite frequently throughout the spring as playing time estimates evolve due to late signings, trades, injuries, prospects panning out (or not), batting orders and pitching staff roles being clarified, etc. What you see here on January 27 could look significantly different two months from now. Case in point, last year's initial projection had the Diamondbacks ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West, but the signings of Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson and Manny Ramirez changed all that.

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Submitted by Rob G. on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:59 pm

as I noted at the end of the post, the Cubs started at 96 games last year and it was changed to 92 games by the end of spring training.

[ ]

Submitted by navigator on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:46 am

Lindsey Willhite over at the Daily Herald has this:
Last year, the average NL team scored 717.5 runs. The PECOTA predictions say San Diego will be last in runs scored at 718. Unless PECOTA senses a surge in performance-enhancing bats and balls and bodies, these numbers are goofy. Ah, now I see the problem. BP's Christina Kahrl said in a chat that PECOTA doesn't have the proper depth-chart analyses at this time.
Maybe they should hold off the release of these PECOTA projections until after ST.

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Submitted by Rob G. on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:14 am

Is Jeff Baker really going to hit 13 HR's in a short platoon roll and as a PH? Is Fuld really going to see as many PH/DH at bats as Hoffpauir if Michah's OPS is .110 higher?
fwiw, they have Aramis at 105 games and Soriano at 96 games and 128 for Lee, which would then in turn give more Ab's to Baker, Fontenot and Hoffpauir by the way they have it set up at the moment. They only have 69 for Nady (although they think Hoffpauir will hit better anyway) and 128 for Fuku and 120 for Byrd.

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Submitted by The Real Neal on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:23 am

The Aram projections don't make any sense, but it's really the negative pitching numbers that are stupid wrong. Patton and Silva and Samardizja simply aren't going to get that many innings if they pitch that poorly. Just like Patton didn't last year. They're relievers, you just keep cycling them in until you find someone who succeeds, and with Jackson, Gaub, Parker, Cashner etc in the wings, Silva isn't going to get 60 meaningful innings unless he pitches better.

Submitted by Cubster on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:01 pm

Thankfully they actually will play the season rather than just project it. I wonder if they use PECOTA on the 1906 season who should win the World Series in 1907?

Submitted by Rob G. on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:01 am

http://www.omaha.com/article/20100128/BLUEJAYS/701289711
The other thing, and anyone who knows Hendry knows this, is that his language, especially in a locker-room setting, can get a bit salty. And he was at his saltiest best when talking to the Bluejays. “I don’t go to church,’’ forward Chad Millard said, “but if I did, I imagine I wouldn’t be hearing too many of the words there that he was using.’’ In terms that wouldn’t be fit to print in a public setting, Hendry told the Bluejays that they needed to man-up and finish the season right. He said no Creighton team should be playing .500 basketball. It was up to the players, Hendry said, to get this thing turned around. If they’re not willing to get with the program, he said, then get off the bus.

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Submitted by jacos on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:34 pm

Wait for a June/July night game at Wrigley, when sun is setting. Directors dream of that type of lighting.

Submitted by artskoe on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:28 pm

Noticed the projections do not include Sean Marshal playing left. And we have Rothschild. Big Edge.

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Submitted by Sweet Lou on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:48 pm

I'm not sure what to make of that story. It's presented like it's breaking news, but I don't think there's anything new there. Lar at Wezen-Ball points out that Dawson was not happy with the amount the Cubs filled in on the blank check, but that's not too surprising. The Cubs significantly underpaid Dawson, so you can't blame the guy for not being happy. The bigger point I got from the story was that despite being taken advantage of, Dawson kept the whining to a minimum and let his on-field performance speak for itself. It was an interesting read, but I think the point Lar was trying to make got lost on me.

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Submitted by Rob G. on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:54 pm

something that happened in '87 is probably not breaking news, just an interesting story for those that thought Dawson was just dying to play in Chicago no matter the cost. He was desperate (thanks to collusion), but was a man of his word when he said he'd play for whatever they gave him.

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Submitted by Sweet Lou on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:11 pm

I didn't mean to suggest that the whole story was breaking news. I was talking about the part where Wezen-Ball seemed to stress the fact that Dawson was not happy about the amount he was paid, as if that was new information. Maybe I mis-read what Lar was saying, but I took it as if he was saying, "This Dawson guy wasn't the class act he is portrayed to be." Although it seemed to me he was trying to push this point, I thought the evidence he used did the exact opposite.

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Submitted by crunch on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:04 pm

yeah, giving out money with no strings attached tends to lead to this. on the flip side, the political/social mindset of these people also leads to not wanting to regulate it. so it's a self defeating system so they don't have to actually put mandatory requirements on money. you'd think we would have seen this in government or other businesses...hmmm... =p

Recent comments

  • Bill (view)

    A good rule of thumb is that if you trade a near-ready high ceiling prospect, you should get at least two far-away high ceiling prospects in return.  Like all rules-of-thumb, it depends upon the specific circumstances, but certainly, we weren't going to get Busch for either prospect alone.

  • Sonicwind75 (view)

    Right on schedule, just read an article in Baseball America entitled "10 MLB Prospects Outside The Top 100 Who Have Our Attention".  Zyhir Hope was one of the prospects featured. It stated that he's "one of the biggest arrow-up sleeper prospects in the lower levels right now."

     

    Not sharing to be negative about the trade, getting a top 100 prospect who is MLB ready should carry a heavy prospect cost.  But man, Dodger sure are good at identifying and developing young talent. Andrew Friedman seems to have successfully merged Ray's development with Yankees financial might to create a juggernaut of an organization.  

  • Sonicwind75 (view)

    I suspect Brown will spend some time in the bullpen due to inning restrictions.  Pitched only 93 innings last year and career high is 104 innings in 2022.  I would expect them to be cautious with a young player with his injury history.

  • Childersb3 (view)

    I wanted Almonte gone last week, but that was before Merryweather went down and Little got demoted. Almonte in his last 5 appearances has gone 4.1 IP with no ER or Runs. NO hits, 3 BBs and 8 SO. He did hit 96 with his 2S FB in AZ on Tues.
    I don't see Jed waiving him when we have injuries all over and guys with options that can be sent down.
    I probably won't like the move Jed makes, but he can't play the "let's hope no one wants his 1.7mil remaining deal and we can hide him in Iowa" card.
    That's why I think the current Bullpen stays as is and Wicks goes to Iowa.
    I don't like that, but that's the fix I see.
    We'll find out soon enough!!!

  • TarzanJoeWallis (view)

    Teheran minor league deal is done, per MLB.

  • TarzanJoeWallis (view)

    Based on Phil’s sound analysis it sounds like a no brainer for Almonte to be placed on waivers as today’s roster move. We shall see.

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    I suspect Counsell/Hottovy will use the piggy-back extensively, with Taillon and Hendricks pitching as the "pig" (and with a very short leash) and some combo of Wicks, Brown, and Wesneski (whichever two do not start) as the "backers."  

    Keep in mind that Keegan Thompson has a minor league option available, and if Yency Almonte is not outrighted by 4/26 he cannot be sent to the minors without his consent after that date. Almonte is out of minor league options, so I am talking about him getting outrighted to the minors if he is not claimed off waivers, and if he is claimed off waivers, the Cubs save the pro-rated portion of his $1.9M salary, which helps lower the Cubs 2024 AAV.

  • Dolorous Jon Lester (view)

    Totally agree. The 26 man roster very rarely consists of the 13 best position players and 13 best pitchers.

  • Dolorous Jon Lester (view)

    Based on what Jed has done in the past, I’d say the plan is to

    -give Hendricks another few starts
    -give Taillon some runway ot get his season underway

    -Mix and match in the bullpen and see what sticks

    Jed usually doesn’t do a whole lot of waiver wire plays in-season, at least early in the season. He only reallly did that after he blew up the rosters in 21 and 22 because they needed bodies (guys like Schwindel, Fargas, etc).

    I think he’s a little handcuffed by a full 40 man in that he can’t really maneuver much with giving anyone showing ability at AAA (R Thompson/ Sanders/ Edwards etc). Brewer has the most tenuous grip there, and we will see what kind of chance he gets. Other than his spot, there isn’t a ton of 40 man wiggle room.

    I’m very curious to see what happens with Brown now that Taillon returns. Bullpen? Wicks to Iowa? 

  • Childersb3 (view)

    Pro teams have to play their "big money" guys if they are healthy and not "locker room" issues.
    The Cubs wanted to deal JHey off well before they bought him out. They just didn't want to pay him to play for someone else for that long. Jed did give him 20+mil to play for LAD last yr.
    Jed might also let Kyle walk at some point this year. Similar scenario to JHey, except Jed thought Kyle was going to be good/solid in '24!!
    You'd think Smyly is in the same book as well. Same with Neris (he's a 1yr vet RP, so he's not really in this convo too much).
    That's ~35mil between those three and those three are going to get opportunities until at least late June) over younger guys even if their performance is "iffy".
    But, Jed is going to play Taillon a lot. They have to try and justify that contract and hope a veteran works out.
    So, Taillon, Imanaga, and Hendricks are locks for the rest of April and probably May.
    Assad, Brown and Wicks handle the last spots until Steele is ready.
    Now, you're question has real merit when Steele comes back. That will interesting if Brown is still good and Hendricks is still bad. But Taillon is entirely safe as long as he's healthy.

    And the bullpen moves were "money" based as well. Smyly has actually been okay. But he hasn't been clearly better than Little. Little had one bad outing. But Smyly makes 9mil. If they needed another RHRP and one of Little and Smyly had to go, it was going to Little. But that doesn't mean Smyly is one of the best 13 arms for the team. 

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