Is Ryan Theriot Worth $3 Million?

The actual figures submitted are $3.4M by Theriot's camp and $2.6M by the Cubs, and those unfamiliar with the baseball arbitration process might think that either side has to prove their figure worthy. But as one astute reader noticed, $3M is the halfway point between the two figures and essentially Theriot's camp has to convince the panel that he's worth $3M or more and the Cubs have to convince them that Theriot is worth less than $3M. If Theriot's camp is successful, he'll get the $3.4M, if the Cubs are successful, he'll get $2.6M.

Chicago Cubs shortstop Ryan Theriot turns a double play against the Houston Astros

There are plenty of primers out there on the arbitration process and if you really want the nuts and bolts on how the hearing goes, I suggest this BP article. Here's the basic guidelines:

  • Each side submits their salary figure
  • A panel of 3 arbitrators hear the case
  • Each side gets an hour to present their case, then a half-hour rebuttal and final summation with the player side normally going first and the club getting final say(No wonder they win 60% of the cases).
  • Neither side is informed of the final vote(3-0 or 2-1) until well after the proceedings, just who won.
  • You can compare players with similar service time but not to exceed one year. Year 3 players (like Theriot) can compare themselves to three and four year service time players, but not five-year players.
  • and let me just blockquote what cannot be argued, before I breakdown what can be argued.

 

  1. The financial position of the player and the club (though player
    representatives often try to get this information in the back door by
    presenting attendance information that implies the health of a club's revenue streams).
  2. Press comments, testimonials or similar material bearing on
    the performance of either the player or the club, except for recognized
    annual player awards for playing excellence.
  3. Offers made by either the player or the club prior to arbitration.
  4. Cost to the parties of their representatives.
  5. Salaries in other sports or occupations.

So let's see how this case will go, with the points that can be argued.

1. The quality of the player's contribution to his club during the
past season (including but not limited to his overall performance,
special qualities of leadership and public appeal).

Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2009 29 154 677 602 81 171 20 5 7 54 21 10 51 93 .284 .343 .369 .712 83 222 13 6 13 5 1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2010.

His walk rate dropped from 11% to 7.5% and his K rate went up from 10% to 15.4% along with a drop in his OBP from .387 to .343.

He also seemed to whine more about Milton Bradley than any other Cub it seemed...a real leader of men here.

2. The length and consistency of his career contribution.

Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2005 25 9 14 13 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .154 .214 .231 .445 15 3 0 0 0 0 0
2006 26 53 159 134 34 44 11 3 3 16 13 2 17 18 .328 .412 .522 .934 135 70 5 2 6 0 0
2007 27 148 597 537 80 143 30 2 3 45 28 4 49 50 .266 .326 .346 .672 71 186 12 0 8 3 1
2008 28 149 661 580 85 178 19 4 1 38 22 13 73 58 .307 .387 .359 .745 92 208 19 3 4 1 1
2009 29 154 677 602 81 171 20 5 7 54 21 10 51 93 .284 .343 .369 .712 83 222 13 6 13 5 1
5 Seasons 513 2108 1866 283 538 81 14 14 153 84 29 191 221 .288 .356 .369 .726 86 689 49 11 31 9 3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2010.

He does stay healthy for the most part and is pretty consistent...consistenly bad that is (wahaha, slaps self on back). Fangraphs' WAR values has him at 1.6, 3.1, and 2.8 wins from 2007-2009(BP has 2.3, 2.7, and 2.9 WARP1) which actually isn't too shabby. Among qualified shortstops, he ranked 11th out of 17 in 2009, 10th out of 14 in 2008, and 16th out of 17 in 2007 in OPS.

Of course, defense is a big part of the shortstop game and although there's a lot of complaining about Theriot's rag arm, his numbers seem to show that he's at least adequate. I have no idea if the Cubs have any idea what UZR is, but let me cover it with UZR, BP and standard fielding stats.

  2007 2008 2009
BP 108 97 105
UZR/150 7.7 0.7 8.7
Fielding % .980(8/25*) .975(10/18) .976(12/22)
Range Factor 4.04 (23/25)* 3.90 (18/18) 4.24 (14/22)

* if he qualified, which he seemed to just miss with 108 games at shortstop

Range factor is of course assists plus putouts over 9 innings, but it's going to be heavily influenced by the type of pitching staff. In the Cubs case, they've always been a high strikeout team which usually translates into more flyballs as well so don't be fooled too much by that number. On the other hand, the Cubs should try and fool the panel with it.

3. The record of the player's past compensation.

$390K in 2007, $428K in 2008, $500 K in 2009.  Theriot is asking for a jump of nearly 700% on his last salary.

4. Comparative baseball salaries (the arbitration panel is provided with a
table of confidential baseball salaries for all players broken down by
years of service).

Here's all the salaries for shortstops in their first year of eligibility in salary arbitration thanks to the awesome Cot's Baseball Contracts. Some players signed multi-year contracts.

Player Year Salary
Hanley Ramirez  2009 $5.5M
J.J. Hardy
2008
$2.65M
Jason Bartlett 2009 $1.98M
Troy Tulowitzki 2010
$3.5M
Khalil Greene
2007
$2.25M
Erick Aybar* 2010
$2.75M - $1.8M
Stephen Drew 2010
$3.4M
Yuniesky Betancourt** 2009 $2M
Felipe Lopez 2006 $2.7M

*Erick Aybar is still unsigned and arbitration eligible for the first time. He submitted $2.75M to the Angels $1.8M.

** Wittenmyer says he made $2.3M in 2009, Cot's has Betancourt at $2M with a $1.5M signing bonus on a four-year deal he signed before 2008 with the Mariners before being traded to the Royals.

I'll come back to this chart later.

5. The existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the player.

Take all of Ryan Theriot's baserunning mishaps set to the tune of Benny Hill(also someone's idea in the comments). Easy win for the Cubs.

The Cubs could also present this video.

6. The recent performance of the club, including but not limited to his league standing and attendance.

Theriot's camp should be able to take advantage of this as the Cubs have done well since 2007 both on the field and financially. 


As you can see in the table under argument #4, Theriot's case is pretty much tied to Stephen Drew, while the Cubs have everyone else to compare him against. And if Theriot's team is smart, they'll drive that point to death as he actually matches up favorably to Drew.

Ryan Theriot

Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2005 25 9 14 13 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .154 .214 .231 .445 15 3 0 0 0 0 0
2006 26 53 159 134 34 44 11 3 3 16 13 2 17 18 .328 .412 .522 .934 135 70 5 2 6 0 0
2007 27 148 597 537 80 143 30 2 3 45 28 4 49 50 .266 .326 .346 .672 71 186 12 0 8 3 1
2008 28 149 661 580 85 178 19 4 1 38 22 13 73 58 .307 .387 .359 .745 92 208 19 3 4 1 1
2009 29 154 677 602 81 171 20 5 7 54 21 10 51 93 .284 .343 .369 .712 83 222 13 6 13 5 1
5 Seasons 513 2108 1866 283 538 81 14 14 153 84 29 191 221 .288 .356 .369 .726 86 689 49 11 31 9 3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2010.

Stephen Drew

Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2006 ARI 59 226 209 27 66 13 7 5 23 2 0 14 50 .316 .357 .517 .874 117 108 1 0 2 1 4
2007 ARI 150 619 543 60 129 28 4 12 60 9 0 60 100 .238 .313 .370 .683 71 201 4 3 5 8 5
2008 ARI 152 663 611 91 178 44 11 21 67 3 3 41 109 .291 .333 .502 .836 109 307 5 1 3 7 6
2009 ARI 135 595 533 71 139 29 12 12 65 5 1 49 87 .261 .320 .428 .748 89 228 4 1 5 7 7
4 Seasons 496 2103 1896 249 512 114 34 50 215 19 4 164 346 .270 .326 .445 .771 93 844 14 5 15 23 22
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/10/2010.

With just 5 plate appearances separating them, Theriot has the edge in  BA, OBP, career Hits, Runs Scored, Stolen Bases. Drew leads in all the extra base hit categories, RBI's, SLG, OPS and OPS+. And remember, Theriot doesn't necessarily have to convince the panel he's just as good as Drew, but in the ballpark and the offensive numbers aren't that big a difference. If you throw in fielding, Theriot may actually come out ahead.

Career wise Drew has a .976% fielding percentage with with a 4.17 RF to Theriot's .976% and 4.06 RF. Then throw in some of the advanced metrics where Theriot's career UZR/150 is 4.8 to Drew's very poor -7.8 and BP has Theriot at a career 102 Rate2 to Drew's career 96. I imagine Theriot's crew looked at the comparasion to Drew extensively and that's where the $3.4M figure came from.

One important thing to remember is there are more than spreadsheets and stats involved in the argument. The people in the room and their abilities to convince the panel will be just as important. Remember the process, each side gets an hour to argue and then 30 minutes of rebuttal and a summation. If Theriot has the O.J. Simpson team in his corner, they could conceviably knock out everyone of the Cubs' points and convince the panel that Theriot is every bit as good as Stephen Drew and Troy Tulowitzki.

As for the case against Theriot, Drew made substantially more in 2009 on the original major league deal he signed when he was drafted ($1.5M in 2009), so the raise to $3.4M isn't nearly as steep as the one that Theriot is asking for from the $500K he earned in 2009. Historically, teams have won 60% of arbitration cases...yet another knock on Theriot's case.  Also, teams have been paying about $1.1M per win for first year arbitration eligible players like Theriot. He's forecasted for a 2.2 WAR by CHONE, which means he'd be worth about $2.42M. Of course, a projection is never going to come up in an arbitration case I assume. They'll stick to the player's past contributions. If you take his average WAR over the last 3 years (2.5 WAR), he'd be set to make $2.75M for next year which would put the case in favor of the Cubs. Theriot's camp would be wise to argue that he's become a better player the last two years, where he's averaged a 2.95 WAR which at $1.1M a win would give make him worth more like $3.24M and give him the win in the case.

If you go to Fangraphs and sort by WAR for shortstops in 2009(no promise that links works), Theriot's smack in the middle and slightly above Drew, but behind Aybar, Bartlett and Tulowitzki. If you go by the last 3 years, once again he's ahead of Drew, but well behind Bartlett and Hardy, both of who made less. Of course he can try to argue team success and team profitability to try and make up the difference.

It should be an interesting case and I don't think it's nearly as cut and dry as people want to make it out in favor of the Cubs. I certainly don't think he's worth the $3M or more and Theriot does seem to be climbing an uphill battle. On the other hand, if he's got the captain of the debate team on his side and they can be more convincing than Jim Hendry and the Cubs, he does have some points he can make to drive his point home.

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Comments

Thank you for this.

Basically, he has a 50% CS rate.

And, at the top of the order with a reasonable amount of attempts, this is unacceptable.

I wonder how much of this fact will be argued or defended?

I get 67% last year 21/31 and 74.3% for his career. Not that terrible.

If he's going on his own, I guess that could come up. If he's being sent by Lou, then not much the Cubs could argue.

BP's advanced baserunning has him at:
1.1, -0.4, -1.5 (2007-2009) EqBRR

Measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table.

Thanks Rob G.

Indeed, I thought it was 21/51!

My bad.

Well, that is not truly "terrible" - 21/31.

He seems slow as hell, or gets plain "bad jumps", more than usual.

He's not a good base stealer. He gets terrible jumps.

well he's definitely gotten worse...

he was 41/47 in his first season and a half, that's beyond excellent.

43/66 over the last two seasons at 65%...75% I believe is the threshold of it's no longer a good idea.

66%, but that's all time- depends on the scoring environment. 75% may be now, but that sounds a bit high.

drew being a power hitting SS and a notably better SS (no matter what retard matrix dragged it's broken limbs out to flail around) it's a pretty weak comparison, even if convenient.

it's not even like riot is a horrible SS...average...but numbers showing drew is a bad SS are bad numbers...especially the last 2 years.

...and yes, the past 2 years drew has been rated as a horrible SS...i know...and it's retarded. hell, last year he was pretty damn good.

what do you think they'll use to argue their defensive abilities? Magic?

of course they'll use numbers because neither side is going to have an objective scouting report to use.

"Here's out scout Gary Hughes, he says Drew is better defensively than Theriot."

that'll go over well with the panel I'm sure.

and if you don't want to use UZR or whatever, the standard fielding metrics don't show Drew to be much better either.

notably better SS

it's essentially a court case, what's the evidence that will support it? They going to show video side-by-side, are there neutral scouts they can quote?

magic? no. drew...a little bit.

btw, you do know almost every mlb team has their own defense stats matrix (or other way to quantify defense)? the stats in books aren't the only stats out there.

the image of the MLB team just discovering stats or waiting around for a community to develop them is a fabrication too many buy into. what you think is in all those binders in the dugout? what you think those pitchers on rest or the kids/coaches writing stuff down in the dugout are doing and what do you think that info is being parlayed into? you're not gonna be able to go to amazon.com and buy the results...

btw, you do know almost every mlb team has their own defense stats matrix (or other way to quantify defense)?

I do.

Do you know what the Cubs and Dbacks systems say about the Drew and Theriot? I sure don't.

and how much weight would that carry in an arbitration case using proprietary info?

"our system says theriot isn't that good?"
"let's see that."
(scribbles note on piece of paper)
"see, he's ranked last"

you have an interesting view of the arb. process. let's flip it from the player's advisor's side...

"bill james says theriot isn't that good?"
"let's see that."
(scribbles note on piece of paper)
"see, he's ranked last"

those notebooks are portable, ya know.

instead of counting on hobbyist lawyers and mathematicians teams have full-time guys to crunch these numbers using data that is waaaaaaaaaaaay more reliable than looking at errors and other broad stats. they can generate reports on this data, too, just like some lawyer putting in 4-6 hours a week looking at historical public data.

-edit- btw, you don't really even need numbers to compare drew to theriot...especially if you want to talk about fielding balls to the left and footwork on double plays. drew's footwork is obviously better and god knows he can throw better.

hmmm, independent expert analysts are often used in court cases although hired by one side. The key is independent. It's not like James would be called to testified, he would of just helped put the case together and I assume in a relatable way. Here are the points you want to talk about, here's what to say to refute their points.

And not that the Cubs couldn't use their own defensive metrics to make a case, but do you know what those metrics say? Or that the Cubs even have one?

no?

me neither...

but a lot of the binders are splits and pitcher vs batter splits and hot and cold zones along with advanced scouting reports...pretty standard stuff. 7 years of interviews with Hendry will tell you they don't put a lot of stock into any sophisticated statistical analysis.

no one outside the organization should know what those metrics say.

the data collected is for a far greater use than spray charts, believe that. when they want a player/coach to track the game's defensive setup as well as results they care about a lot more than just who sprayed what on what kind of pitch.

i've seen people turn in pages of info with defensive setup dots and pitch/in-play location notes. they don't take these notes and shove them into a binder. they compress the game's data and add it to the existing data for later use. archival data can be used later when new data technology use is desirable.

besides all that defensive stuff...theriot is a singles hitting dude and drew is pretty universally believed to be a solid 20+ hr guy at SS.

besides all that defensive stuff...theriot is a singles hitting dude and drew is pretty universally believed to be a solid 20+ hr guy at SS.

and Corey Patterson was a true 5-tool player, none of what is believed or projected has any bearing on an arbitration case. It's what has happened so far...

really?

okay.

if drew hits 20HR it's not news. if theriot does it's news.

drew hits what...30 doubles, 10 triples, 15-ish HR a year? yeah, drew can hit 20HR and no one would go "woah". hell, he's even shown he can.

drew hits what...30 doubles, 10 triples, 15-ish HR a year? yeah, drew can hit 20HR and no one would go "woah". hell, he's even shown he can.

so the argument then is that Drew's power is better than Theriot's? yeah, that was covered...

Theriot's OBP, defense(arguably), BA, speed have shown to be better than Drew's so far...and so far is all that matters.

Doesn't Tulo's contract pretty much crush anything that Drew comps can be used for?

Anyway, crunch is talking out of his ass here. What he's talking about is 3 full time guys to do defense stats for players. The Red Sox and Yankees might do that. The Cubs sure as hell don't. They probably subscribe to Stats Inc, but so does UZR. The Cardinals hired MGL as a consultant based on UZR (and UZR is no good).

Doesn't Tulo's contract pretty much crush anything that Drew comps can be used for?

if Hendry is smart...yes. As I said, there's one thing going for Theriot, Stephen Drew's contract and everyone else is on the Cubs side. Theriot can also use the teams' record since he became starting shortstop and attendance since 2007. Yeah, it sounds silly, but it's allowed and considered.

I know the A's have their own defensive system as well.

"drew's footwork is obviously better and god knows he can throw better."

God may know it. But will the arbitration panel?

-edit- btw, you don't really even need numbers to compare drew to theriot

you'll need them to convince an arbitration panel though...

long story short...if you even compare the 2 besides saying "well, drew got this recently for his play" then you got issues...and it should be the cubs using that info to discount theriot's value because at worst they're both average SS, but drew is good for a world's difference of more power.

if you even compare the 2 besides saying "well, drew got this" then you got issue

huh? where do you think Theriot's agent and him got the $3.4M figure from?

if theriot's agent thinks theriot is comparable to drew then theriot needs a new agent.

20+HR capable SS's don't grow on trees and theriot isn't even a shred of one.

20+HR capable SS's don't grow on trees and theriot isn't even a shred of one.

that has nothing to do with an arbitration case though...

yeah, it does...

peer comparison and salary of peers in the same arb-year class is a large part of it. comparing theriot to drew is retarded by default aside from a base economic indicator of SS value in my view.

peer comparison and salary of peers in the same arb-year class is a large part of it.

yup, and how do you think they compare them?

(hint: statistics)

if it was just that they wouldn't need an hour with 30 minute rebuttals.

also, they're not rolling up in there with just some UZR ratings to defend or make cases on how someone uses their feet, arms, and hands playing D. in fact, you can use things other than (hint: statistics) to make that point along with using custom (hint: statistics) built from a strong/literal data base.

that said, it's easy to find a few dozen scouts, even independents, to give pros/cons of D that will mean a lot more than numbers...and honestly, with theriot you're not gonna find a lot of variation.

also, they're not rolling up in there with just some UZR ratings to defend or make cases on how someone uses their feet, arms, and hands playing D.

yeah I would venture a solid guess that their feet, arms and hands are not mentioned, but rather the totality of their defensive contributions as compared to their peers.

whether they use UZR, standard stats or their own info I could not tell you...

"yeah I would venture a solid guess that their feet, arms and hands are not mentioned, but rather the totality of their defensive contributions as compared to their peers."

really?

yeah really.

is there some objective scale that ranks their footwork, arm and range and how it affected games?

because saying a guy does better to his left isn't going to carry much weight. or he has a 60 arm on the scouting scale to this guy's 45 or he has better footwork around the bag on a double play.

Range factor, double plays turned, fielding percentage or advanced stats on the other hand will.

objective scale? they can dump scouting reports and dare theriot's camp to come up with more reliable reports. they could present their data and leave it to the arb-panel to decide if they're full of it. they can use existing stats. there's a lot of ways to do it up.

this isn't 3 judges bound by law...it's the player and his camp...the team's camp...2 presentations and 2 rebuttals...decisions final without explanation. the ground rules themselves are so simple and short it's not a huge deal.

they can dump scouting reports and dare theriot's camp to come up with more reliable reports.

they could, but what matters is what was done in the games. They have stats for those, whichever ones you want to use and none of them show Drew to be any better than Theriot...as basic or advanced as you want to get.

you have to take those defensive stats seriously in order for them to have weight. as much as people like defensive stats they're also much made fun of. you won't find many people out there who even has 1 defensive stat they'll point to and go "this one is a nice one."

all of them have way too many flaws that don't jive with too many scouting reports. the skitzo up/down some players experience when scouting reports don't notice much of a quality change don't help much. yeah, it's a better idea to aggregate them over 3+ years for a more fair scope of value, but even that is flakey.

yes, they will be used, but they're not tight-case evidence.

Actually there is a new system being installed to measure defense in baseball that looks interesting.

http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2010...

"The panel hereby rules that 'crunch' likes Drew's skillset way better than Theriot's, so we rule in favor the Cubs. Case dismissed."

it's not just me. i don't make drew, drew makes drew. theriot makes theriot. i'm not pulling any comments about drew out of thin air.

drew's biggest knock on his D has been reading hits off the bat...not mobility...not his arm...not his arm accuracy. last year, especially, he made a remarkable improvement there.

it's not me...

drew's biggest knock on his D has been reading hits off the bat...not mobility...not his arm...not his arm accuracy. last year, especially, he made a remarkable improvement there.

are you high?

wtf is that going to have to do with an arbitration case?

numbers, evidence, past accomplishments...

did you see anything in there about skillsets or projectability?

you seem to think comparing skill sets don't matter...i don't know why.

you can compare simliar players in similar arb. year situation...that's on the table.

you seem to think comparing skill sets don't matter...i don't know why.

yes compare similar players in similar arb years...

and compare their accomplishments so far.

I did it so far, it's in the article.

cliff notes for people named crunch

Drew > power
Theriot > everything else so far

what their projected to do and what their talent level is, won't have much bearing on the arbitration case.

and fwiw, my understanding is that in first year cases, the career is weighed as much as the final season.

as they progress, the last season is weighed more heavily.

then what was your previous comment about? o_O

i dunno where the "projectability" thing comes from either. drew did last year what he did last year. there were no projections made.

i dunno where the "projectability" thing comes from either. drew did last year what he did last year. there were no projections made.

Career so far...

Drew > power
Theriot > OBP, Speed, BA, defense (arguably)

how good Drew looks doing it isn't a factor...

woah now...it's not that cut and dry. this isn't all numbers based. a guy can be what a guy is and doing marginally better at something doesn't count the same as being vastly superior at something.

you also shouldn't discount how much power drew has at a position where power isn't in huge abundance.

it's also based on awards(not a factor), how their teams have done (advantage Theriot), leadership (couldn't tell you)...

this has nothing to do with what I think of Drew or how much better he'll be going forward. It's what they've done so far and Theriot's camp - if their smart - will beat to death how they've performed nearly as well if not better than Drew has to this point in their careers.

personally, i think theriot's camp comparing themselves to drew would be a huge mistake and the cubs would be better off to point at drew and his salary in order to make their case more solid.

But he is slow at a position where stealing bases isn't.

stealing bases? we're talking rbi hits here.

=p

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100...

Such as the condition of the fields. Jackson grew up in Berkeley, Calif., and is used to well-manicured ballparks, not fields which sometimes are used as pastures for goats. He's also used to having other food options than rice and beans. One of the players on the November trip apparently didn't handle the food or conditions well and had to spend a couple nights in a hospital to recover.

How can you be a professional writer and not have heard of Montezuma's revenge?

"Yackety Sax" was my idea.

~takes a bow~

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/pro...

they even got themselves a lobbyist

Great, great write-up. Thanks. I'm eerily fascinated by how this turns out. I think the Cubs' only streak that's run longer than their no-arbitration streak is their no-no-hitters-against and their no-world-series. But I digress.

This point strikes me: "On the other hand, if he's got the captain of the debate team on his side and they can be more convincing than Jim Hendry and the Cubs..."

It's been 17 years since the Cubs have gone to an arbitration case. I don't imagine it's been as long for Theriot's agent. Anyone know for sure? Cot's says his agent is Brian Peters. Anyone know if Brian Peters has taken other clients to arbitration and won?

I agree the winner isn't obvious, and the amounts have been deftly selected so that the winner isn't obvious. What an art it must be to submit an arbitration value.

not sure about Peters, but the BP article suggest that both sides often hire consultants and people experienced in arguing these cases. The media reports suggest that Hendry will do the arguing for the Cubs.

Wow. So they can outsource. Who knew? I see a prospective new business opportunity for TCR. : )

I wonder if Hendry will be the man who represents himself and has a fool for a client.

Bill James was often hired as a consultant for arbitration cases, I believe for the players side normally. If I remember this correctly, the players did better during that time frame (and not like he worked on every case).

also, Theriot became the everyday SS in 2007 around the beginning of June which is about when the team started to take off that year, another point he can use in his favor (as tenuous as it may be).

Wait till you see what Rob Bowen gets!

Great article, Rob. Very interesting and informative.

I don't see him matching up well with Drew just because of the huge HR and SLG % difference.

On another note, Theriot is married to a woman named John? Ok, Johnah, still, WTF??

from ye olde world o roto:

"According to Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, Johnny Damon's one-year contract offer from the Braves is worth $2 million now and $2 million deferred.
David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution believes that it is worth "at least" $5 million, with some money deferred, so there's a slight difference between the two reports."

ha. wonder where he'd start if they got him? they got a loaded OF situation already.

"David O'Brien, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Braves OF Matt Diaz and OF Melky Cabrera could split time at right field early in the season if the team signs free-agent OF Johnny Damon (Yankees) and determines that OF Jason Heyward is not ready. If it is determined that Heyward is ready, the Braves could look to trade Diaz or Cabrera or could start the season with an extra outfielder."

via kffl.com

The A's and Braves have way too many outfielders, and so many of them already seem to be Damon-type players, other than the inflated HR total Damon put up last year with the short RF porch. And most of the A's/Braves speedy OF's play better D than Damon at this point.

It's almost like Jim Hendry became the GM for those teams, was hit on the head, got amnesia, forgot he loves 87 second baseman on a roster and realized he loves 87 of something and got the position wrong.

I have one word. Garrett Anderson.

Heyward, McLouth, Diaz, Cabrera?

Damon's better than Diaz and Melky and who knows how Heyward will acclimate himself to the majors.

it's a good problem.

I didn't scrutinize the whole thing, but couldn't it be argued that the Cubs may be at a disadvantage because their staff has little to no practical experience with arbitration hearings?

they would get someone else to do it if they didn't feel comfortable, i'd imagine. that said, it's just theriot and there's less than 1m bucks on the line.

I read a while back, maybe even on TCR, that Astros' Ed Wade owns a firm that argues arbitration cases on behalf of teams.

sure.

They were prepared for one with Zambrano a few years back though although they settled it in the lobby.

As much as I've been arguing that Theriot could make a case for himself, the Cubs just have to bring up Tulo, Bartlett, Aybar, Hardy.

I should also add that Theriot could bring up that he's been remarkably better than Betancourt.

one thing I should also mention that I read is that playing time seems to be a big factor. If you managed to stay in the lineup your first three years, no benchings or trips to the minors (like Hardy), that seems to weigh favorably for the player. I can't recall the article to give anyone context unfortunately.

at this point i wonder if it's all just a ploy to try to squeeze a 2y/6+m deal out of the cubs.

unless one side truly has their heels dug in the sand i can't imagine why 3m wasn't appealing to either side as a middle-ground.

I think somewhere someone said Theriot's camp got in a snit. I am sure it was in the comments in the last week or so.

wow...that's a good story with a lot of footwork.

19 year old Cuban shortstop seeking $10 million contract:

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/new...

I wonder if the focus on the minor league system is going to result in big signings or just spending more on coaches and scouts.

Cuban still makes the Mavericks fun to watch (most of the time), but in the end his hype factor was such an unknown we should be giving kudos to whoever made the decision to cross off his name from the potential buyer list. First, he lives and breathes Dallas therefore would have been 50% absent. Second, he did not make a move to buy the Rangers, which he could have had for a song compared to the Cubs pricetag, and finally, nobody seems to pay attention to him anymore due to past outrageous behavior.

Although, I doubt if Lou would still be manager...

If they do the smart thing and move him to 2nd, I think he'll perform better knowing that he's playing his normal position. Hopefully Castro can make the starting squad and Lou won't put him in situations to hit and run when the guy at the plate is looking for the 5 run HR. I've always been a Homer for TheRiot, but I would hate to see this get ugly and lose a quality 2nd baseman when the two sides could get together and have the middle of the infield (including Soto) locked up for a long time.

P.S. I spent over $300 on two Theriot jerseys, and I will be pissed if they are going to be useless within 2 years of obtaining them.

as a mentioned in the other thread, not a lot of no power second basemen out there. So unless his defense translated really well (and I suppose it could), he'd probably be one of the bottom 5-10 2bmen in the league.

At least's he middle of the road at shortstop.

Bottom line is if we can spend 2-3 million on shitty players like Macias, Neifi, Miles etc... then Ryan Theriot is most certainly worth 3 million. Just give him his money and be done with it, we have paid the same for far shittier infield talent. Theriot is actually worth the money.

brilliant strategy...

one time I pretty much paid sticker price for a car, so now everytime I buy a car I shouldn't negotiate.

Is Ryan Theriot worth 3.4 mil? No.

But I would pay him. With all the insanely large contract Hendry has handed out, I think it's pretty shitty to take Theriot to arbitration over $800k

And put me in the "Theriot is a second baseman pretending to be a shortstop" camp.

maybe you mean defensively, but offensively he'd be one of the worst in the game.

Yeah, he's not exactly a top-tier player, bro. This much we agree on.

He is worth more than 3.4 million.....he had a better season than Bradley, lol.

He also seemed to whine more about Milton Bradley than any other Cub it seemed...a real leader of men here.

I know your Milton love is out of this world, but geez Rob get your facts straight.

Milton spent his time with the Cubs calling them out, calling fans racist, making excuses and being just about the unfriendliest person imaginable. Theriot was his locker mate and tried to get through to him, but judging by Miltons attitude he just probably took Theriot for a racist.

I applaud Theriot and the rest of the Cubs players for finally talking about the living hell they had to endure putting up with the biggest piece of shit in sports.

Leadership is about putting your personal life behind you, doing your job to the best of your ability and making no excuses. Its showing up to the park early when you don't have to work on your game, its not being the last guy out of the dugout each day so you can avoid working out with the team.

I nice cheapshot by you Rob, but apparently you dont have a clue what leadership is when your shining example of love is Milton Bradley.

Leadership is about putting your personal life behind you, doing your job to the best of your ability and making no excuses.

theriot made all kinds of excuses last year that Milton and the clubhouse were a distraction.

I nice cheapshot by you Rob, but apparently you dont have a clue what leadership is when your shining example of love is Milton Bradley.

hello my old friend the strawman...

psh. Nice formatting job, Rob. Shows what you know about blogging.

Milton Bradley sucks.

Care to point out all the instances of Theriot doing that "all year" ?

fine, last 2 months and since he was traded.

do you jump everytime you see "milton"?

it's usually started of with "blah blah your milton love" and ignoring what people try to keep telling you that's the point of the matter.

if milton then rage.

Whats the point of the matter crunch?

I jump when i see a person hate on Theriot because of what he said about Bradley. Hate on the other 24 guys as well because they are all pretty much in agreement.

Bradley is a piece of shit. The entire Cubs organization has first hand knowledge of what a piece of shit he is. And because no one could control that said piece of shit, its somehow a negative for the guys around him? Its Pinellas fault, its Hendry's fault, its Theriots fault for not controlling the piece of shit.

You and Rob's point is pretty obvious, Bradley is not held accountable for anything. But Theriot is a horrible human being for commenting on the situation.

Thats a pretty glaring double standard.

You and Rob's point is pretty obvious, Bradley is not held accountable for anything. But Theriot is a horrible human being for commenting on the situation.

strawman, now hyperbole, what's next?

yeah, whatever...keep believing that. it's already been explained too many times and you don't want to believe it.

http://www.fieldofschemes.com/news/archives/2...

owners propose TIF to finance Cubs in Arizona instead of ticket tax, author of that site doesn't like them.

I'm not exactly sure what a TIF is to be honest or how it works. sounds like some odd tax shell game.

TIF (tax increment financing) essentially promises future tax gains toward the present-day redevelopment of an area, particularly economically stressed areas.

Not complaining about the link - I am sure people will read it and enjoy it, but I went to click it and I thought "what possibly could Hendry say that I haven't heard before?"

I want the Cubs to win, but the silver lining in another mediocre season will hopefully look just like Retardo's walking papers.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100...

Going into the session(Zambrano's), Hendry had told his staff to avoid getting personal or say anything disparaging about Zambrano. The same applies to Theriot's case.

So much for the "he's short and throws like a girl" evidence.

lol... don't mention the confederate flag in the back of his pickup truck.

Last time the Confederates won anything was in 1864. Maybe he's just trying to keep the Cubs century plus of futility in perspective.

http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/index?id=4905199

mostly lame standard Cubs jokes, but this one made me chuckle

World Series Title Oasis: This summation of the Cubs' fan experience features a hologram of the hallowed hardware that disappears right when anyone wearing a Cubs' jersey gets close to it.

Soto overwieght pot smoking swing and miss style was not a clubhouse distraction? No, you say, because Theriot didn't complain about it? And now his holier-than-thou-ness wants 3 million because the misguided leadership in the clubhouse let him attempt to steal and get thrown out easy, and with a mushy arm throwing to first. BIOB. Yep, blame everything on Bush, er, Bradley...

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2010-...

Interesting answer about Cubs winning WS, Lou said "they" are going to win one some day.

Guess not with Lou.

top of same article, some classic Lou-speak.

Lou Piniella: We have a good ballclub. Every manager feels good about his team at this time of the year.

That's about as Lou-kewarm as it gets.

Wow, he instills a ton of confidence.

Does he have gambling debts or something? Lou, just walk out like you did on your last team.

hell, there were a lot of injuries...fair game.

we could have used less bobby scales, though.

Giants may only send one representative to Lincecum hearing with MLB doing the bulk of the arguing

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/2...

seems a bit sketchy...

Taking Theriot's side in this is a classic case of rooting for laundry. SJS even admitted that he's trying to protect the value of two jerseys.

Barney or Castro could replace Theriot tomorrow. In a year, Flaherty, LeMahieu, Lee and who knows who else will be in the picture. Theriot is completely expendable, which is why the Cubs picked a fight with him. It's win-win: if they get him cheap, he's more tradeable. If he wins arbitration, they can pretend they're annoyed with him, and he's more tradeable.

They're not annoyed, they just don't need him. Lou loved him when he looked like a 30-SB guy, but that was then.

Agreed,

Theriot is most likely gone in 13 months or less. Keep him as cheap as possible. The 800K we save on him now can theoretically be used on Draft/Latin/mid-season trade.

About time that Jim Hendry showed a semblance of testicular fortitude. Funny that it finally happens with the smallest guy on the roster.

Allow me to introduce you to Mike Fontenot....lol.

Check THIS Cubs deal:

"Starting Monday, February 15th at 10am CT, fans will have first access to all Chicago Cubs 2010 regular season home games by going to Cubs.com and paying a 20% premium on the face value of the ticket. However, if you use a MasterCard card during this Pre-Sale promotion you will save 5% on the pre-sale price. In addition, you will receive a 20% discount on your next purchase with your MasterCard at the Cubs.com Shop when you enter this code (CHC20FEB) and use your MasterCard card."

The team already receives a nice "handling charge" on any online order. So, the fan doing this, are paying 20% extra, PLUS, $10 a ticket for Platinum Level games.On a $68 ticket this all becomes an increase of an additional $23.60 before stepping into the park. The ticket is now $91.60. At this price point, in this economy, resale at break-even or a profit for this sucker is gonna be hard.

another victory for ticket brokers...

Is there a way to make money off of shorting tickets?

wow...thank you mcguire/rickets and the other penny counters.

this doesn't affect me, but jeez...that's some lame crap.

http://blog.mlive.com/cutoffman/2010/02/agent...

Damon to Tigers for 2/14 looms...

Chad's one stop magazine for all things Cubs and Chad-

https://www.maplestreetpress.com/bookpics/boo...

I read it for the articles...

I do have 2 articles in there once again and I do think the entire thing has some good stuff in it. Very unfortunate picture choice and graphic design work though.

Anything on Starlin Castro...Street?

~please accept my apology in advance~

Maple Street Press is still plugging the old MVN address for TCR.

FYI

frank thomas and tom glavine officially retire.

once smoltz and sheffield retire i'll officially feel old.

...moyer will never retire...and who cares besides SEA fans, anyway? =p

Remember when Soriano lost his arbitration and had to settle for (a record high) $10 Million?

And speaking of Soriano, the Sporting News has him batting, you guessed it, fifth.

LOU!! You got some splainin' to do.

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2010-...

I know I love to see pics from Spring Training! Here is a link to a few of the early birds in Mesa. I always enjoy this site in the Spring. Sorry if it has already been posted elsewhere.

http://www.boysofspring.com/journal/journal.php

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