Game 126 Thread / Reds @ Cubs (2 of 3)

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SP Bronson Arroyo SP *Ted Lilly
10-10, 5.51, 125 K, 50 BB, 143.2 IP
12-6, 4.32, 141 K, 54 BB, 154 IP
CF *Chris Dickerson LF Alfonso Soriano
SS Jeff Keppinger SS Ryan Theriot
RF *Jay Bruce 1B Derrek Lee
2B Brandon Phillips 3B Aramis Ramirez
3B Edwin Encarnacion CF *Jim Edmonds
1B *Joey Votto 2B Mark DeRosa
LF Jolbert Cabrera RF *Kosuke Fukudome
C Ryan Hanigan C Geovany Soto
P Bonson Arroyo P *Ted Lilly

The Astros did us no favors this afternoon losing to the Brewers so it'll be up to Ted Lilly and the Cubs to bring themselves closer to a division and playoff spot. The Cubs current six game lead in the division is its largest division lead since June 22nd, 2001, when they led the Cardinals by that much. Things should hopefully go a little smoother the rest of this season. 


While I remember the Cubs being competitive until very late in 2001, I have no memory of them having that large of a lead? They were that far ahead of both the Cards and Astros?

I'm certainly not counting my chickens regarding the division, particularly with our horrid September schedule. But with an 8.5 game lead on the wildcard....I don't have a problem talking about the Cubs making the playoffs now. I can't fathom 2 teams jumping the Cubs in the NL (3 if outside our division).

by July 22nd it was down to 2 games over Houston, by August 22nd they were down 2 games to Houston, by Sept 22nd they were down 7 to the Astros. Cards made a big push after July 22nd as well to tie the Astros.

I'm certainly not counting my chickens

All I have to do to keep my excitement down is think: NYM 07. Keeps it series by series, week by week for me.

Up 9 in the loss column (was 10 yesterday) for a playoff spot with 36 to play. Heck, the Cubs should even be able to hold on to that lead. I think it is safe to start talking PLAYOFFS?!?!?

yeah, just looked it up on ESPN...forgot how far ahead we were then. I don't remember feeling totally crushed that season, I can only guess it was because of 9/11.

Crazy how good the Cardinals were the last 2 months of the season.

I was at the game when I knew the season was over:

That is when I knew we didn't have the bullpen to keep ahold of the division.

when David Weathers gave up an inherited unearned run, you knew?

Nah, when felix heredia was brought in and Tony Gwynn doubled, i kinda knew then.

I was at this lovely 14 inning night game that year. Had about 80 chances to score in extras before they lost.

How come most of my bad memories of the decade about the Cubs involve the Marlins in one form or another.

I'm telling you my ultimate nightmare is we get into the first round of the playoffs and hit into double play after double play just like last year. We are an extremely double play prone team.

6th in the NL entering today...the more runners on base, the more double plays you'll see.

I know the numbers are a little bit lower than you would think but Lee, Ramirez, Edmonds, Fukudome, Derosa and Soto are all big time double play targets. Even Theriot who has speed has hit into his fair share this year.

Actually... Theriot has the highest double play rate on the team.

Ugh....let us never speak of this game again.

What a miserable game. We are wasting TONS of scoring chances early lately.
Bad defense, inopportune wild pitch, and no base runners in the game after 1st and 3rd no out in the 4th.

We are going to lose our share of games...but that was just a wasted opportunity and waste of a gem by Lilly.

I have this idea that Arroyo becomes Bob Gibson when he plays us...then I looked up his career stats against us on bb-ref, and they're not spectacular. Somebody shoulda let the Cubs' lineup know that before the game tonight.

I hate games like this against a crap team wallowing in last place. A waste of great pitching. Walked out after six. Played nine holes of golf. disgusted. blah!

Shit happens. Get 'em tomorrow and win another series.


The one thing I do know is that Dunn will NOT hit one off the houses across Sheffield against Z this afternoon.

At least Arroyo wasn't hitting homers left and right. Wasn't there a game a couple of years ago where he hit two homers, and drove in like 6 runs? I seem to remember that. It's not like he is a good-hitting pitcher, but I am always a little afraid of him after that...
I am also pretty disturbed any time the Cubs starting pitcher practically gift-wraps a game for the team, and they can't take it. I hope they can start to capitalize more consistently on those games before the end of the season...

Yea... but Glendon Rusch was pitching. :)

I think it's still the best offense in the NL. Sometimes they have bad nights. So did the 27 Yankees.

Yeah, neal. I know that everyone occasionally has bad nights. I just wish that the bad nights didn't match up with great pitching nights...

It's much more fun to lose 15-0 instead of 2-1.

Lilly has been solid since the break (or so).

He's arguably the most consistent Cubs starter this year. The last time he gave up as many as 5 runs in a game was April 17. None of the other Cubs starters can say that.

Unfortunately, he gives up 4 runs too often. If he could just limit the number of home runs he serves up, he'd be outstanding.

FWIW, I give Demp a mulligan on that one game against the Pale Hose, which makes him the most reliably consistent Cubs starter IMO. :-)

In the second half we STINK in Close Well-Pitched Low Scoring Games. And that bodes ill for the playoffs.

2nd Half Games where winner scores 4 runs or less.


Fri, Jul 18 @ Houston L 2-1 Howry (3-3)
Sat, Jul 19 @ Houston L 4-1 Zambrano (10-4)
Mon, Jul 21 @ Arizona L 2-0 Harden (0-1)
Fri, Jul 25 Florida L 3-2 Howry (3-4)
Sat, Jul 26 Florida L 3-2 12th Gaudin (0-1)
Fri, Aug 1 Pittsburgh L 3-0 Marquis (6-7)
Mon, Aug 4 Houston L 2-0 Dempster (12-5)
Sat, Aug 16 @ Florida L 2-1 Marshall (2-3)
Wed, Aug 20 Cincinati L 2-1 Lilly (12-7)


Fri, Aug 8 St. Louis W 3-2 11th Howry (5-4)



Average 7.95 Runs per win

Looks like: Our great starting pitching has been rendered irrelevant by the idiosyncracies of our
on-off offense.

In the second half we STINK in Close Well-Pitched Low Scoring Games. And that bodes ill for the playoffs.

Except winning close ball games is mostly a matter of luck.

The Reds are something like 8 or 9 games over .500 in one-run games.

yup, irrelevant...

Cubs offense needs to keep these games close or we have no shot in the playoffs.


I've been looking at these numbers really closely and I think I've spotted a trend.

When we score more runs than the other team, we almost always win.

i double checked that one and when the Cubs score more runs than the other team they have, in fact, won every game.

Unfortunately, when they have scored less runs in a game, they still haven't managed to win one yet.

If that's not 'bad luck', I don't know what is. Hopefully we can get that turned around in time for the playoffs. You would think we would have won at least ONE of those games!

probably one of those sample size things you guys are always talking about.

Also says Cubs will only call up 6 players in September. Speculates they will be Wuertz, Guzman (96mph FB), Hart, Pie, Hoffpauir, K.Hill to the 40Man as well.

Recent comments

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  • based on what SF has been doing every other year lately, getting access to the postseason playoffs seems to be what's important. bring on dat short series!

    that said, skipping the sudden death 1-game WC would be nice from here on out.

  • I know what you are saying, but I feel compelled to point out that there's no such thing as luck, curses, etc. The Cubs this year have as good as a chance as the Pirates to move on to the next round. If the Cubs proceed to the next round or not tomorrow, it will not be because of luck, but because one team outlasted the other. When/if the Cubs are lucky enough to make it to the league series, that's where they may find their biggest challenge. The Dodgers have a good, deep pitching staff.

  • debuting the new format 1 game "sudden death" WC matchup at yankee stadium does a perfect job of showing the intense emotion and drama this game can be.

    that said, i'm ready to not see yankee stadium or hear fans at yankee stadium for another 5 and 1/2 months. at least i don't have to sit through the braves with their "tommy hawk chawp" this postseason.

  • i'd like to know why the internet radio feed of the game (which is always delayed by a few seconds at best) is almost a minute faster than the ESPN cable TV coverage. wtf?

  • i dont know what order they'll be in, but i pretty much expect fowler/schwarb/rizzo/bryant/montero/castro/lastella/arrieta. any change at all (aside from the first 4 guys) wouldn't shock me, though. coghlan is still a wildcard in the lineup joe could always march d.ross out there with very slow arrieta pitching.

  • Yup. Have to agree. Baseball, like golf, certainly has that psych component for the player. There is no real reason why a fielding position should affect a batting average. The Cubs are 106 years over due for a little luck. Don't you guys think so? Maybe the rookies can bring some dumb luck on.

  • probably stacking capable lefties vs cole while keeping the "hot" castro in the game. fwiw, he's 1-6 lifetime with 0 bb/k vs cole (double).

    i chalk bryant's issues at the plate while playing OF up to coincidence so far.

  • I will call your dead horse, "Trigger".

    In one game, when anything is possble, I am glad that Joe Maddon is our Manager.

    He knows the stats better than all of us. It would seem, IF La Stella gets the start at 3B, it will be only up to the point that they were to get the lead (crosses fingers). From everything I have read, the game will be managed like a hoops game: offense/defense. So expect La Stella to be out of the game by the 5th. This team is incredibly deep which is so surprising. We never woulda thunk it.

  • i don't know what their roster plans are, but j.herrera is out there practicing with the team.

    i can't imagine him making any roster, though. dude had 4 PA the entire month of sept. him being a good dude to be around while keeping the clubhouse loose seems to be his main role at this point.

  • I know it's my own personal dead horse to beat --but Bryant has been a lousy hitter when playing the OF this year. Given that it's his first playoff game, I really hope they keep him in his natural position and don't mess with his routine.

    Lousy as in 8-for-45 with one XBH and no HR. Small sample and all that -- but why take the chance?

  • hard to tell what's up given they'll probably want to stack as many good lefties into the lineup as possible.

    castro being a bit hot doesn't help things. if he was still cool they'd probably stick la stella at 2nd and call it a day.

  • Madden won't announce lineups but Stella is practicing at 3rd and Bryant in LF today. I'd rather see Bryant at 3rd but I guess Stella has been hotter than Coghlan.

    /edit. Though I guess they could be practicing this with the idea Stella would come in as a PH then double switch him to 3rd base and Bryant to LF. Hope that's the plan instead

  • I really like the sound of that idea about expanding the AFL to ten teams. Each org. gets to field more players.
    They should do that anyway, regardless of Adv. Instructs.

  • Dallas Beeler, Corey Black, David Garner, Pierce Johnson, Steve Perakslis, James Pugliese, Duane Underwood Jr, and Rob Zastryzny threw early-morning bullpen side-sessions at Riverview yesterday.  

    Underwood threw last, and received specific one-on-one instruction from pitching coach Mike Mason. 

  • HAGSAG: There are only five advanced instructs squads left, and presently the only "co-op" team operating is the Angels/Cubs.

    The league was originally established as a "parallel" league to the AFL (a sort of "junior AFL"), for players too advanced for traditional ("basic") instructs but who were unable to get placed on AFL rosters due to AFL player-limits.

  • He is but I would think it'd be better to start out with offense and then bring in Jackson and LaStella once they have a lead. Stella has very good PH #s too.