Cubs Lineup Waste

(awesome illustration from Tim Souers of Cubby Blue, click on the image for the full-size)

More after the jump...

A few days ago I put up a poll on some of the lineup atrocities over the years, which Neifi ran away with at 73% of the vote, but this continued mess of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez hitting ahead of Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto finished a distant second at 11% (with Soriano hitting leadoff finishing just behind at 10%). Anyway, how about contextualizing the current atrocity in numbers thanks to Baseball Prospectus (ROB is Runners on Base).

Player PA ROB
Ramirez 141 104
Lee 154 103
Byrd 143 97
Theriot 155 85
Soriano 121 67
Fukudome 117 63
Soto 107 62
Fontenot 85 53
Colvin 59 52
Baker 57 46
Nady 52 42

As you can see, the two guys struggling the most have had the most opportunities to drive in runs thanks to batting in the middle of the order.  On top of that, thanks to their struggles, there isn't anyone on-base for Soriano while he is hitting. It's a double whammy of lineup stupidity. Just to compare, Chris Young of Arizona and Raul Ibanez of Philly are two other NL #6 hitters with a similar number of at-bats and Young has had 95 ROB in a 144 PA and Ibanez has had 90 ROB in a 130 PA.

Now let's add a column of OBI% or Others Batted In. When we talk about a guy being a run producer, this is where they should be excelling at, driving in the other guys on base in front of them (16-17% is the average). Granted, it's a number that fluctuates quite a bit from year-to-year, but you gotta take advantage of the hot hitters.

Player PA ROB OBI%
Ramirez 141 104 11.5%
Lee 154 103 11.7%
Byrd 143 97 18.6%
Theriot 155 85 14.1%
Soriano 121 67 19.4%
Fukudome 117 63 20.6%
Soto 107 62 9.7%
Fontenot 85 53 20.8%
Colvin 59 52 9.6%
Baker 57 46 2.2%
Nady 52 42 11.9%

I wouldn't worry about Soto much, he just gets walked whenever someone is on-base so they can face the pitchers, but while Lee and Ramirez struggle, Soriano is basically just being back to a leadoff man in the middle of the order. Maybe that was Lou's plan all along.

Today, nothing changes with Theriot, Byrd, Lee, Nady, Ramirez, Soriano, Soto, Castro and Gorzelanny set to battle the Pirates lefty Brian Burres.

Comments

Hahah... very funny.

Nice one. Still waiting for my coffee table book.

Rob, wrong 'there' there, 2nd sentence after the ROB list.

Down 3-0 already. Great.

Pre-Ricketts: Cubs beat Pirates.

"Year One": Still looking for an inferior team -- no luck so far, despite playing the Pirates, Reds, Astros and Marlins.

Damn... Ramirez can't catch a break. He finally gets a big hit, and it sticks in the vines and he doesn't get an RBI.

Woo... and Soriano gets lucky with a bloop single, and we have a tie game. Over/under for total runs in this game? 15?

Life is more fun when Lee and ARam don't make outs.

It just sunk in for me that 5 guys in the Cubs lineup are hitting over 300, yet they are 15-20.

R. Theriot 2b .324
M. Byrd cf .346
A. Soriano lf .333
G. Soto c .310
S. Castro ss .364

and none of them are in the 3-4-5 spot today.

at least our main RBI men are in the #2 and #6 slots...wait.

I can kinda understand lee and aram in and around 3-4-5 but there is now way to defend Nada batting 4th every time he plays. Not with Byrd, Sori tearing the yard up now.

Maybe Lou is a big believer in regression to the mean? Err... progression to the mean?

i don't think it's a tragedy, but i'm a little sick of watching soriano waste RBI slot hits.

byrd at least gets to hit 4th/5th occasionally...

aram should be where sori is in the lineup until his bat "wakes up"

byrd and soriano are the power...and they're hitting..

be nice to see soto move up a little, too.

...and byrd hits another homer...

Marlon Byrd is the tits.

Well this is what happens when a player goes into a slump and you start jockeying the lineup all around. By time you figure out the player is back on track, you have pretty much wasted a ton of good RBI chances in the middle of the lineup.

This is knee jerk managing that the fans want.

we're a month and 1/2 into the season.

aram has almost 140 PAs with very constant suck...that's almost 1/4th of a season.

nady hitting 4th/5th so often when he plays i don't get at all...

dlee in the 3 slot i can buy because he's at least seeing the ball with occasional flashes of constancy.

uggg...

Correction - What you described might be what happens with Lou. Most of us have been calling for moving ARam out of that slot for at least a week... I agree that by the time Lou does it, Aram may be heating up...

XAVIER NADA IS BATTING 4TH on a $ 140 million team!!!

Saltalamacchia has the Mackey Sassers

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arc...

Is Hill hurt? I think he has a better chance of throwing these speedy Pirates out, but it looks like he is in the Lou dug-house.

Is Hill hurt?

No... he just sucks. And Soto is good.

And FWIW, Hill has a career 33% CS%, compared to Soto's 27%. Which basically means that Hill would throw out a handful of extra baserunners out a year.

His win % can't be ignored!!!

Thanks Big for proving my point. We could use those handful of extra outs today.

That is a couple of extra base runners a year, not a day.

you're ignoring the 3+mph hill adds to a pitcher's fastball, too, fwiw.

WTF Grabow!!!

"cortisone" shot, eh? hmmm...

ruh-roh

wtf...4 hits in a row vs. Z...pain.

so long how will it take to get stretched out to start again?

5 hits in a row and according to len he's yet to throw a ball above 90mph.

Z has figured out how to get back In The rotation... By sucking in the 8th inning

Of course, I mean the rotation in Des Moines

At work, keep us updated to what happens when Lou pulls Z.

I'm guessing some jawing.

41 hits in 26 innings for Z, make that Peoria's rotation

Question for Lou in post game-

"Lou when do you expect Xavier Nady to snap out of it and be that .270ish 10 hr guy that we know that he is?"

today could be the day - tick, tick, tick...

the illustration & caption are excellent, btw...

Did he ph Fuku for colvin??

Colvin PH for Nady... why he didn't just start for Nady is the question.

I think he was put in for defensive replacement for nady and when his first time to bat, fuku ph for him.

Anyone else find that bizarre?

Colvin got an at-bat in the 9th and looked silly K'ing

did z get the latroy treatment?

it'll be funny when we're feeding the Pirates playoff run later this year

maybe they'll take Aramis back

Well played.

Going back to last year, we have lost 6 in a row to the PIRATES, first time we have done that since 1992....which was also the last year the Pirates were actually good, the tail-end of the Bonds/Drabek/Van Slyke era.

What does that tell you?

That we suck donkey balls?

On the positive side, I have Garrett Jones on my fantasy team.

On the negative side, I have Big Z on my fantasy team.

Amazingly, only 5 1/2 games out.

4th in the league in AVG, 7th in total runs.

I guess I could be just insane, but I'm not quite ready to throw in the towel yet.

I do get the lineup complaints, though.

Maybe Sam Fuld will give up his playing career and manage this team. He's quite the stats hound, I've read.

Anybody else notice that Gorzo was really busting it in their today? Or was the WGN radar gun just hot? They had him at 96 mph on at least one pitch and routinely hitting 92.

Busted it in flat.

"BOOM"

Recent comments

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  • the factual correction on your mistakes on your post that I barely bothered to read the first time because it had nothing to do with anything I wanted to talk about is indeed a sign of my degenerative brain condition. I appreciate the safety tip and will be looking into with extreme urgency now.

    Rob G. 22 min 9 sec ago view
  • it took you 4 posts to get to this?

    have you checked the batteries in your carbon monoxide detector?

    #droppingknowledge #savinglives

    crunch 46 min 46 sec ago view
  • Fwiw, Billy Hamilton's actual WAR numbers that relate to the ones that I posted for Mike Trout are:

    • 2014: 2.5
    • 2015: 1.0
    • 2016: 2.6

    But by all means #crunchsplain on the stupidity of WAR while exaggerating your points. I can't wait to read more.

    Rob G. 52 min 4 sec ago view
  • jacos 52 min 13 sec ago view
  • *stroking intensifies*

    crunch 55 min 42 sec ago view
  • #crunchsplaining

    Thanks for the awesome give and take today and for the 535 words you spilled filling in all the gaps that I woefully neglected. We're all a little wiser and better for it. I look forward to your play-by-play summary later in the comments.

    Rob G. 1 hour 2 min ago view
  • it was about a post comparing players based on WAR...and comparing WAR values of a CF to a slew of other players...a post that you made...and i made a comment...that talked about D weighting of WAR...and comparinging WAR values of a CF to a slew of other players...etc etc...

    hell, we didn't even get in deep. i didn't even involve UZR or FIP versions and their strengths/weaknesses...or position mandated "handicapping" in points...etc.

    let's not talk about that...cool, fine, awesome. context sucks. san dimas highschool football rules.

    *shrug*

    crunch 1 hour 10 min ago view
  • Ha

    jacos 1 hour 25 min ago view
  • Thanks for shining a light on this very important topic and steering it away from the frivolity that was the awesomenes of Mike Trout, but moreso on the foolishness of WAR as a metric to judge the value of center fielders. We're all a little wiser now and your contributions are invaluable to this community and to America's pastime. God Bless!

    Rob G. 1 hour 48 min ago view
  • so...what's chan-yong lim up to these days?

    http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1088746-korean-le...

    oh...

    crunch 3 hours 13 min ago view
  • yes, those hamilton WAR numbers are very reasonable. i'm on your side now based on that biting commentary and reasoning of why he's a 3.5-ish WAR player over a 600 PA season.

    those numbers are obviously well deserved and worthy of no scrutiny...none at all. no issue.

    CF D is rarer than a jon lester pickoff at 2nd...totally irreplaceable...no way in hell there's good D, low/no-hitting CF's in anyone's system that could do what hamilton is doing. guys like this don't exist...you get like, 2-3 at any given time in history.

    crunch 3 hours 32 min ago view
  • Please do not discuss War here. I think the Cub Reporter should be politics free.

    But yes, whether you support War or Peace...Mike Trout is ridiculously consistent and good.

    blockhead25 5 hours 51 min ago view
  • ^^^#WARTruther

    Rob G. 6 hours 3 min ago view
  • "According to FOX Sports' Jon Morosi, Tim Tebow's baseball workout Tuesday in Los Angeles will be attended by scouts from "roughly half" of the 30 major league teams."

    "One scout told ESPN.com last week that Tebow's swing is so long it might "take out the front row." That's not a good thing."

    crunch 8 hours 34 min ago view
  • MyrtleBeachPelicans [email protected]

    The #MBpelicans and @Cubs have extended their PDC through 2020!
    ----
    Carolina League getting 2 new teams too.

    QuietMan 8 hours 53 min ago view
  • CF WAR is ridiculous...billy hamilton is pulling a 3.0 WAR somehow...and managed a 2.0 WAR last year (even though he missed a month of the season)...and a 3.7 WAR in 2014.

    yeah, a lot depends on how one is doing relative to others at a given position, but WAR is common used (right or wrong) as a blanket comparing all kinds of players.

    trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo.

    crunch 8 hours 58 min ago view