Cubs Lineup Waste

(awesome illustration from Tim Souers of Cubby Blue, click on the image for the full-size)

More after the jump...

A few days ago I put up a poll on some of the lineup atrocities over the years, which Neifi ran away with at 73% of the vote, but this continued mess of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez hitting ahead of Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto finished a distant second at 11% (with Soriano hitting leadoff finishing just behind at 10%). Anyway, how about contextualizing the current atrocity in numbers thanks to Baseball Prospectus (ROB is Runners on Base).

Player PA ROB
Ramirez 141 104
Lee 154 103
Byrd 143 97
Theriot 155 85
Soriano 121 67
Fukudome 117 63
Soto 107 62
Fontenot 85 53
Colvin 59 52
Baker 57 46
Nady 52 42

As you can see, the two guys struggling the most have had the most opportunities to drive in runs thanks to batting in the middle of the order.  On top of that, thanks to their struggles, there isn't anyone on-base for Soriano while he is hitting. It's a double whammy of lineup stupidity. Just to compare, Chris Young of Arizona and Raul Ibanez of Philly are two other NL #6 hitters with a similar number of at-bats and Young has had 95 ROB in a 144 PA and Ibanez has had 90 ROB in a 130 PA.

Now let's add a column of OBI% or Others Batted In. When we talk about a guy being a run producer, this is where they should be excelling at, driving in the other guys on base in front of them (16-17% is the average). Granted, it's a number that fluctuates quite a bit from year-to-year, but you gotta take advantage of the hot hitters.

Player PA ROB OBI%
Ramirez 141 104 11.5%
Lee 154 103 11.7%
Byrd 143 97 18.6%
Theriot 155 85 14.1%
Soriano 121 67 19.4%
Fukudome 117 63 20.6%
Soto 107 62 9.7%
Fontenot 85 53 20.8%
Colvin 59 52 9.6%
Baker 57 46 2.2%
Nady 52 42 11.9%

I wouldn't worry about Soto much, he just gets walked whenever someone is on-base so they can face the pitchers, but while Lee and Ramirez struggle, Soriano is basically just being back to a leadoff man in the middle of the order. Maybe that was Lou's plan all along.

Today, nothing changes with Theriot, Byrd, Lee, Nady, Ramirez, Soriano, Soto, Castro and Gorzelanny set to battle the Pirates lefty Brian Burres.

Tags: 
Cubs Statistics
Submitted by Rob G. on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 12:29pm
Return to Homepage

Comments

Submitted by Ryno
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 12:47pm

Hahah... very funny.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:00pm

Nice one. Still waiting for my coffee table book.

Rob, wrong 'there' there, 2nd sentence after the ROB list.

Submitted by Ryno
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:40pm

Down 3-0 already. Great.

Submitted by billybucks
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:43pm

Pre-Ricketts: Cubs beat Pirates.

"Year One": Still looking for an inferior team -- no luck so far, despite playing the Pirates, Reds, Astros and Marlins.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:48pm

Damn... Ramirez can't catch a break. He finally gets a big hit, and it sticks in the vines and he doesn't get an RBI.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 1:49pm

Woo... and Soriano gets lucky with a bloop single, and we have a tie game. Over/under for total runs in this game? 15?

Submitted by Rob Richardson
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:00pm

Life is more fun when Lee and ARam don't make outs.

Submitted by Ryno
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:26pm

It just sunk in for me that 5 guys in the Cubs lineup are hitting over 300, yet they are 15-20.

R. Theriot 2b .324
M. Byrd cf .346
A. Soriano lf .333
G. Soto c .310
S. Castro ss .364

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:33pm

and none of them are in the 3-4-5 spot today.

Submitted by crunch
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:37pm

at least our main RBI men are in the #2 and #6 slots...wait.

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:41pm

I can kinda understand lee and aram in and around 3-4-5 but there is now way to defend Nada batting 4th every time he plays. Not with Byrd, Sori tearing the yard up now.

Submitted by Ryno
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:50pm

Maybe Lou is a big believer in regression to the mean? Err... progression to the mean?

Submitted by crunch
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:51pm

i don't think it's a tragedy, but i'm a little sick of watching soriano waste RBI slot hits.

byrd at least gets to hit 4th/5th occasionally...

aram should be where sori is in the lineup until his bat "wakes up"

byrd and soriano are the power...and they're hitting..

be nice to see soto move up a little, too.

Submitted by crunch
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:52pm

...and byrd hits another homer...

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:55pm

Marlon Byrd is the tits.

Submitted by MikeC
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:22pm

Well this is what happens when a player goes into a slump and you start jockeying the lineup all around. By time you figure out the player is back on track, you have pretty much wasted a ton of good RBI chances in the middle of the lineup.

This is knee jerk managing that the fans want.

Submitted by crunch
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:28pm

we're a month and 1/2 into the season.

aram has almost 140 PAs with very constant suck...that's almost 1/4th of a season.

nady hitting 4th/5th so often when he plays i don't get at all...

dlee in the 3 slot i can buy because he's at least seeing the ball with occasional flashes of constancy.

uggg...

Submitted by Jace
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:29pm

Correction - What you described might be what happens with Lou. Most of us have been calling for moving ARam out of that slot for at least a week... I agree that by the time Lou does it, Aram may be heating up...

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:46pm

XAVIER NADA IS BATTING 4TH on a $ 140 million team!!!

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 2:51pm

Saltalamacchia has the Mackey Sassers

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arc...

Submitted by artskoe
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:27pm

Is Hill hurt? I think he has a better chance of throwing these speedy Pirates out, but it looks like he is in the Lou dug-house.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:42pm

Is Hill hurt?

No... he just sucks. And Soto is good.

And FWIW, Hill has a career 33% CS%, compared to Soto's 27%. Which basically means that Hill would throw out a handful of extra baserunners out a year.

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:45pm

His win % can't be ignored!!!

Submitted by artskoe
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:45pm

Thanks Big for proving my point. We could use those handful of extra outs today.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Mon, 05/17/2010 - 9:08am

That is a couple of extra base runners a year, not a day.

Submitted by crunch
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:49pm

you're ignoring the 3+mph hill adds to a pitcher's fastball, too, fwiw.

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:49pm

WTF Grabow!!!

Submitted by crunch
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 3:50pm

"cortisone" shot, eh? hmmm...

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:12pm

ruh-roh

Submitted by crunch
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:13pm

wtf...4 hits in a row vs. Z...pain.

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:14pm

so long how will it take to get stretched out to start again?

Submitted by crunch
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:15pm

5 hits in a row and according to len he's yet to throw a ball above 90mph.

Submitted by Cubster
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:15pm

Z has figured out how to get back In The rotation... By sucking in the 8th inning

Of course, I mean the rotation in Des Moines

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:16pm

At work, keep us updated to what happens when Lou pulls Z.

I'm guessing some jawing.

Submitted by Cubster
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:19pm

41 hits in 26 innings for Z, make that Peoria's rotation

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:22pm

Question for Lou in post game-

"Lou when do you expect Xavier Nady to snap out of it and be that .270ish 10 hr guy that we know that he is?"

Submitted by Mike Wellman
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:29pm

today could be the day - tick, tick, tick...

the illustration & caption are excellent, btw...

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:29pm

Did he ph Fuku for colvin??

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 8:47pm

Colvin PH for Nady... why he didn't just start for Nady is the question.

Submitted by jacos
on Sat, 05/15/2010 - 2:34am

I think he was put in for defensive replacement for nady and when his first time to bat, fuku ph for him.

Anyone else find that bizarre?

Submitted by Rob G.
on Sat, 05/15/2010 - 10:48am

Colvin got an at-bat in the 9th and looked silly K'ing

Submitted by Mike Wellman
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:30pm

did z get the latroy treatment?

Submitted by Rob G.
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 4:49pm

it'll be funny when we're feeding the Pirates playoff run later this year

maybe they'll take Aramis back

Submitted by The E-Man
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 5:08pm

Well played.

Submitted by Q-Ball
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 5:05pm

Going back to last year, we have lost 6 in a row to the PIRATES, first time we have done that since 1992....which was also the last year the Pirates were actually good, the tail-end of the Bonds/Drabek/Van Slyke era.

What does that tell you?

Submitted by garsky
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 5:34pm

That we suck donkey balls?

Submitted by Tito
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 5:13pm

On the positive side, I have Garrett Jones on my fantasy team.

On the negative side, I have Big Z on my fantasy team.

Submitted by Old and Blue
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 7:12pm

Amazingly, only 5 1/2 games out.

4th in the league in AVG, 7th in total runs.

I guess I could be just insane, but I'm not quite ready to throw in the towel yet.

I do get the lineup complaints, though.

Maybe Sam Fuld will give up his playing career and manage this team. He's quite the stats hound, I've read.

Submitted by Charlie
on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 10:55pm

Anybody else notice that Gorzo was really busting it in their today? Or was the WGN radar gun just hot? They had him at 96 mph on at least one pitch and routinely hitting 92.

Submitted by The E-Man
on Sat, 05/15/2010 - 12:37am

Busted it in flat.

"BOOM"

X
You may login with either your assigned username or your e-mail address.
The password field is case sensitive.
Loading